Six rounds is one thing, but a full 23-rounder is something else. As it turned out, my second mock draft for the 2017 season was of the 15-team, 23-round variety, conducted Wednesday night and completed in less than two hours. There really wasn't a whole lot of time to think in between picks. But fortunately, I did most of my thinking in the days leading up to the draft. And this was an important mock, as it's the mock that will be featured in Rotoman Peter Kreutzer's annual Fantasy Baseball Guide Professional Edition, which should be available in newsstands everywhere by mid-January. So, just to whet your appetite, I figured I'd share some thoughts on a handful of early-round picks that caught my attention.
Brian Dozier (Round 1, Pick 15) - I get it, the guy hit 42 homers last year. Still, I can't get around the fact that his previous single-season high was 28. It is true that Dozier's home run and RBI totals have steadily increased over the past four seasons, so maybe we're looking at a player who is simply reaching his true potential. Or maybe his 2016 stat line will end up being the clear outlier. Drafting him at #15 overall seems like a reach to me, but that might be an accurate guess as to his draft day cost come March. If that's the case, the Twins second baseman will not be on any of my fantasy squads.
Wil Myers (Round 2, Pick 12) - Finally, Myers put together the kind of year that many envisioned he would eventually put together, though the 28 steals were a pleasant surprise. The oft-injured former Rookie of the Year managed to stay healthy for a full season, and fantasy owners who invested a mid-round pick on the 25-year-old were rewarded with an All-Star campaign. One cause for concern is that Myers faded in the second half, batting only .223 with nine homers and 34 RBI after hitting .286 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI prior to the All-Star break. But Myers is still young, so there's time for him to work on becoming a more consistent run producer. I'm not quite ready to spend a top-30 pick to draft the Padres first baseman, but at the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if he turns in a top-30 season in 2017.
Yu Darvish (Round 3, Pick 4) - Darvish's long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery was an overwhelming success, as the Rangers ace proved that he is indeed still an ace. His draft position in this mock suggests that Darvish will not be available at any sort of injury-related discount, so if you're planning on targeting him, be ready to pay accordingly.
Billy Hamilton (Round 4, Pick 14) - Only nine players swiped more than 30 bags in 2016. Yes, stolen base totals are down throughout baseball, so it's no wonder that Hamilton (58 steals in just 119 games last year) will carry a premium price tag. I've never been one to spend heavily on any single stolen base specialist, preferring to spread out my speed sources among multiple players. But considering this trend of disappearing steals, maybe it's time to rethink my approach.
Eduardo Nunez (Round 5, Pick 13) - Speaking of steals, Nunez was one of only five players (along with Hamilton) who registered at least 40 thefts last year. Merely a utility player until last season, the 29-year-old has developed into a highly productive everyday guy, hitting for average with some pop to go along with the elite speed. And he's entering a contract year, so Nunez will certainly be motivated to prove that 2016 wasn't a fluke. But grabbing Eduardo in the fifth round is a bold move. I wouldn't do it, but how am I going to acquire enough steals?
The good news? I have four months to think about this.
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In the end, the best team won, and that's the way it should be. The Cubs offense woke up just in time to reel off three straight wins, ending a 108-year-old title drought. From a competitive standpoint, the 2016 World Series was as tight as it gets. The two clubs finished tied in runs at 27 apiece. Chicago homered eight times while Cleveland tallied seven home runs. The Cubs posted a .316 OBP while the Indians got on base at a .321 clip. Still, there's something about baseball without fantasy implications that leaves me wanting more, which is why my mind wandered over to individual player stats. While I don't take postseason numbers too seriously due to the small sample size, I don't ignore them altogether, as glancing at these stats gives me an excuse to start thinking about some of the top performers and their outlook for the following season. So, which players in particular caught my attention during the seven-game World Series and what are my expectations from them for 2017?
Ben Zobrist: .357 AVG (10-for-28), 2 RBI, 5 R, 2 2B, 1 3B
Let's start with the MVP, who continues to be an underrated fantasy asset. Zobrist's first season with the Cubs was arguably his most productive season since 2011. The 35-year-old doesn't run much anymore but I wouldn't be surprised if he duplicates this year's .272-18-76-94 line in 2017. Throw in the multi-position eligibility and we're looking at a worthy mid-round investment. Note that Zobrist carries added value in OBP leagues (career .358 OBP).
Anthony Rizzo: .360 AVG (9-for-25), HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 3 2B, SB
Boasting averages of 32 homers, 105 RBI and 94 runs scored over the past two seasons, Rizzo has established himself as a viable top-10 overall pick. One scary thought is that he's still only 27 years old. Another scary thought is that 20 of his 32 homers this season came on the road, away from hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. I see a 40-home run campaign in his immediate future.
Francisco Lindor: .296 AVG (8-for-27), 2 RBI, 2 R, 2B, SB
The word on Lindor upon his big league debut last summer was that his defense was MLB-ready but his bat might take some time to develop. Apparently not. After going .313-12-51-50-12 across 99 games in 2015, Lindor's first full season in the Majors produced a stellar .301-15-78-99-19 line. The Indians shortstop's equally impressive postseason performance suggests that his #30 overall draft position in the MLB.com October Mock was far from a reach.
Jake Arrieta (2 starts): 2-0, 2.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 15 K in 11 1/3 IP
Coming off a Cy Young season in 2015, Arrieta wasn't quite as dominant this year, though his final numbers (18-8, 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 190 K in 197 1/3 IP) were still ace-caliber. I wouldn't mind drafting Arrieta if he comes at a low-end ace price, but judging from early mock draft results, Jake isn't coming at any sort of discount, so I doubt I'll own him in any of my leagues next season. The dramatic walk rate increase from 1.9 BB/9 in '15 to 3.5 BB/9 in '16 is concerning.
Corey Kluber (3 starts): 2-0, 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 15-to-1 K/BB ratio in 16 IP
Kluber entered this year as a legit top-10 fantasy SP, and thanks in part to disappointing seasons from a few of the other upper-tier hurlers, the Indians righty has improved his stock, even approaching top-5 status. I'm going to chalk up his shaky Game 7 outing to being fatigued from pitching on short rest twice in a row. There's little downside in drafting Kluber to serve as the anchor of your 2017 staff.
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We all know that the postseason, let alone a portion of the postseason, is a small sample size, too small to be taken too seriously by fantasy owners looking ahead to next season. But this doesn't mean that a player's postseason performance should be ignored altogether. And when it comes to the top postseason performers, it's never too early to start forming opinions about these players. After all, these are high-pressure games that are being watched closely by the entire baseball universe, not just local fans or certain fantasy owners. Actually, I tend to shy away from some of these postseason stars simply because their draft day price could be inflated due to their October heroics. But if you're a believer in these guys and are willing to pay the necessary price in order to own them next year, you might as well decide now.
Justin Turner - Those who wrote off Turner's productive 2015 campaign as an aberration could not have been more mistaken. The Dodgers third baseman turned in a career year in 2016, batting .275 with 27 homers, 90 RBIs and 79 runs scored during the regular season. He then went 6-for-15 (.400 AVG) with one home run, five RBIs and five runs scored during the five-game Division Series versus the Nationals. Still, I can't get around the fact that he was a career-long role player prior to 2015. I might be proven wrong here, but if one of my league mates is willing to spend a mid-round pick to draft Turner as their starting CI in a 12-team mixed league or starting 3B in a deeper format, I'll let them do just that.
Javier Baez - Baez is looking like an ideal post-hype sleeper candidate heading into 2017. The 23-year-old is fresh off a quietly productive 2016 season in which he swatted 14 home runs while swiping 12 bags and hitting a respectable .273 across 421 at-bats. His minor league numbers suggest that a power spike is likely, and his position versatility (at least 25 games played at third base, second base and shortstop) and impressive postseason (.375 AVG, HR, 2 RBI, 4 R) only adds to his fantasy appeal. I'll be targeting this across-the-board contributor in all of my drafts next spring.
Joe Panik - Panik's postseason stat line (6-for-10, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R) should remind us that this is a player who could serve as a quality starting MI in deeper mixed leagues next season. And the best part? Thanks to an injury-marred and disappointing 2016 campaign, the Giants second baseman will be there for the taking in the late rounds. Expect him to be a steady source of runs and batting average in 2017.
Matt Moore - Sticking in San Francisco, Moore dominated the Cubs on Tuesday, allowing just one earned run on two hits over eight innings while racking up ten strikeouts. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued Moore throughout his big league career, but the 27-year-old former top prospect still carries breakout potential. Plus, moving from the hard-hitting AL East to the more pitcher-friendly NL West can only be seen as a good thing. Moore makes for an intriguing option as a fourth or fifth starter in mixed leagues next season.
Corey Kluber - I drafted Kluber this year with the 41st pick as the 12th SP off the board in my NFBC Draft Champions league, and I'm pleased to announce that I got what I paid for. As for this postseason, the Indians have to be pleased with what they are getting from their ace. How about 13 1/3 scoreless innings through two starts? Consider Kluber a clear-cut top-10 fantasy SP entering 2017, and don't be surprised if he climbs even further up the ranks.
Mock drafting in October? Crazy, right? Well, I do it every year, organizing and participating in the annual MLB.com October mini-mock, lasting six rounds and is now complete. Click here for the pick-by-pick results plus commentary from each of the owners.
The reality is that it's never too early to start thinking about next season, the player pool at the various positions and most importantly, the newcomers to the early rounds. These are the guys who likely resided on the rosters of most championship fantasy squads, as the cost to draft them last spring was minimal yet the reward was great. So, before we turn our full attention to 2017, let's take some time to recognize a handful of these 2016 high-profit earners, and let's plan on drafting the 2017 version of this group. Easier said than done. Note that all of these players were selected in the six-round mini-mock and were purchased for no more than five dollars in the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars league.
Jonathan Villar - This $1 auction buy is now a consensus top-50 player, and he was valued even higher (#27 overall) in the mini-mock. With reliable speedsters in short supply these days, third round doesn't seem like much of a stretch. Still, while 50-plus steals is well within reach for 2017, I'm not expecting another 19-home run campaign. For owners who like to invest heavily in one dominant stolen base source, Villar is your guy. I prefer to spread out the risk when addressing steals, so Villar is unlikely to reside on any of my fantasy rosters.
Trevor Story - Story missed the final two months of his rookie campaign due to injury, but fantasy owners of the Rockies shortstop still got more than they expected from him over a full season (27 HR, 72 RBI). This was a case of a rookie actually living up to the hype, and judging from his draft position in the mini-mock (Round 4, Pick 1), owners hoping to obtain Story's services for 2017 at an injury-related discount can forget about it.
Jean Segura - Heading into the 2016 draft season, Segura piqued my interest as a potential breakout candidate who might benefit from a fresh start with the Diamondbacks. I figured he could bat .260 with 30 steals, 8-10 homers and a decent number of runs should he hit near the top of the order. But a .319 batting average with 20 home runs, 33 steals and 102 runs scored? I didn't expect that. No one did. I wouldn't mind owning Segura in 2017, but 47th pick? That's pushing it. Do note that speed came at a hefty cost in this mock (see Jonathan Villar). Let's see if this trend continues as the mock draft season progresses.
Kyle Hendricks - Drafted as a back-end of the rotation mixed league starter last spring ($4 in Mixed Auction Tout Wars), Hendricks turned in a career year in 2016, going 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Although it is hard to see him matching that stat line in 2017, it would be unfair to dismiss this past season as a fluke. There's clearly a lot to like about the soon-to-be 27-year-old, particularly his pinpoint control (2.1 BB/9 in '16). But honestly, it was strange to see him drafted before David Price.
Aaron Sanchez - Speaking of strange, it is very strange to remember that Sanchez entered spring training in a competition for Toronto's final starting rotation spot. Well, the young righty won that competition and quickly established himself as the club's most reliable starter, finishing the season with a 15-2 record to go along with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
From $1 auction purchase to 64th overall pick in the span of seven months.
I drafted well, made a few trades that really paid off along with a number of strong FAAB pickups. But it was not until September, when Trea Turner continued to get on base and swipe bags at will, Justin Upton homered every other game and Justin Verlander pitched like it was 2011 that I thought there was a legitimate chance of winning the Tout Wars Mixed Auction league. Most of the final few weeks were spent bouncing between first and second place before taking the lead for good with only a few days remaining. After spending some time reflecting on this championship season, it's time to write about it.
MVP (hitter): Jose Altuve - I felt comfortable shelling out 31 bucks for Altuve's services, confident he would earn back at least that in the form of a .350-plus OBP, 35-plus steals and 85-plus runs. If he could somehow match last season's 15 homers, that would be special. As it turned out, the Astros second baseman fell a bit short in stolen bases, but I'm not complaining. He easily exceeded every other projection while still ranking among the top four players in the AL in thefts. With this MVP-worthy season, Altuve raised his fantasy stock from top-15 pick to top-5 pick. I'd have no problem paying the increased price in 2017, which could approach $40 in an auction. However, note that only five of his 24 home runs came after August 1st, so counting on another 20-home run season might be a little too optimistic.
MVP (pitcher): Jon Lester - Paying 25-plus dollars for a "true ace" is not my style. Instead, my preference is targeting a pitcher in the low-end ace/high-end SP2 tier with the potential to deliver a "true ace" caliber season. Lester was the guy I wanted and indeed purchased at a reasonable cost of $21. I'd say it all worked out pretty well. The Cubs southpaw earned a price hike for 2017, but even so, the continually underrated hurler should be well worth the investment.
Best bargain auction purchase (hitter): Carlos Beltran - Beltran cost $2 as my fifth outfielder, and I was expecting 130 games, 20 homers and 70 RBI. Instead, the 39-year-old enjoyed his most productive season since 2012, batting .295 with 29 homers and 93 RBI in 151 games split between the Yankees and Rangers. Beltran proved he can still be a middle of the order bat, but can he remain injury-free for a second straight season? I wouldn't be surprised if Carlos eventually finds a home in the Hall of Fame, but at a price that figures to be in the $10-$15 range, I'll likely steer clear of him in 2017.
Best bargain auction purchase (pitcher): Jose Quintana - Julio Teheran ($6) deserves an honorable mention, but Quintana's overall numbers are better. This $9 buy turned in a career year, though his lack of run support (13 wins despite a 3.20 ERA) was frustrating. There's little reason to think that Quintana, who turns 28 in January, will regress in 2017, and I'll be willing to spend the 15 bucks it will take to draft him at the auction table.
Best FAAB addition (hitter): Travis Jankowski - Although Jankowski faded in September (.256 OBP, 1 SB), he remained productive long enough to reward me with 16 steals. A glance at the final standings reveals that those 16 swipes were worth four points, a fine return for 152 FAAB dollars. Jankowski's fantasy outlook for 2017 is a mystery, as San Diego's outfield picture is crowded, with Manuel Margot his main competition. If given regular at-bats, Jankowski could be a quality mixed league asset. Stay tuned.
Best FAAB addition (pitcher): Ervin Santana - Santana hasn't exactly been the model of consistency but the veteran righty is usually a safe bet for a quality start, and that's all you can ask from a back-end of the rotation mixed league starter. So one day in early-July, I spotted Big Erv on the waiver wire and figured he really didn't belong there despite struggling in May and June. This was a case of perfect timing, as 12 FAAB dollars bought a 2.40 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 15 starts to go along with 89 strikeouts across 97 1/3 innings. I won't be trying to draft Santana next year, but wouldn't mind owning him for the price of a late-round pick or a couple of dollars in an auction.
Best trade: Aaron Nola and Jay Bruce for Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp - Speaking of perfect timing, this swap seemed balanced when it was agreed to in late-June. Nola was in the midst of a rough stretch but after his outstanding April and May, there was reason to think he would bounce back. Meanwhile, despite a strong strikeout rate, Verlander sported a mediocre 4.30 ERA. Still, I was looking for more stability in my starting rotation, and in that respect, considering Nola's thin big league track record, he was the riskier option. To make up for the moderate (but at the time not significant) starting pitching upgrade, I was willing to accept what at the time was an outfield downgrade from Bruce to Kemp. Well, we all know how this turned out. In 18 starts for my squad, Verlander went 9-3 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 147 strikeouts over 123 innings. Nola would make only four more starts before missing the remainder of the season due to an elbow injury. Bruce would register a .763 OPS in the second half after posting an .853 OPS prior to the All-Star break while Kemp provided 19 homers and 55 RBI in 81 games.
Best move I didn't make: Trading Trea Turner - It was early-May and Turner, a reserve round pick, wasn't close to being called up. Getting tired of waiting and figuring I could use a boost in power, I thought it might make some sense to part with Trea and his upside for a known commodity in Lucas Duda. Eventual runner-up Fred Zinkie had expressed interest in Turner but was unwilling to meet my asking price of Duda and Alcides Escobar for Turner and Trevor Plouffe. I actually formally proposed this. All Fred needed to do was click "Accept". Phew.
As always, thanks to the Tout Wars brain-trust for running these leagues, and special thanks to Peter Kreutzer (aka Rotoman) for his yeoman's work as the Mixed Auction league commissioner.