Mastersball

April is a confusing month for fantasy owners. One day you’re in first place, the next day you’re in ninth. Later that evening, you jump up to sixth and the following morning you drop back down to ninth. You really have no idea if your team is any good until the stats begin to normalize and you see some separation within the various categories. Right now, we’re approaching that point, and in a week or two it’ll be time to think about your team’s strengths and weaknesses and begin to formulate a plan as to how you will go about addressing those weaknesses. Is it time to panic? Absolutely not. But is it time to cut ties with a struggling late-round pick? Yeah, probably. Eventually, the “sample size” excuse is no longer acceptable and an ice cold start becomes a lost season. Similarly, the “he’s playing way over his head” rational has a limited shelf life. Could it be that this guy is simply in the midst of a career year? Sure.

With all this in mind, I figured I’d take this opportunity to reflect on the first month-plus of the 2013 campaign and hand out a few awards. The common denominator here is that all of these guys are on at least one of my teams.

Biggest Surprise (Hitter): Chris Johnson

If it wasn’t for Aramis Ramirez’s injury, I never would’ve added Johnson to my Tout Wars roster. Well, his torrid April almost made me forget about Aramis. Like most owners, I dismissed Johnson’s solid 2012 season as fluky, mostly because his .281 average seemed like a huge anomaly when considering his 132-to-31 K/BB ratio and .354 BABIP. So what’s his aveage this year? .352. What’s his K/BB ratio? 21-to-2. What’s his BABIP? .446. Sell, sell, sell! Chances are you won’t get a great return in a trade, but if Johnson can net you a proven, everyday starter-type bat, go for it. For me, Aramis’ return could not have come at a better time.

Biggest Surprise (Pitcher): Derek Holland

I’ve been waiting for Holland to break out for awhile now and was able to grab him towards the end of one of my mixed league auctions this year. Good move. The 26-year-old lefty has tossed at least seven innings while giving up three runs or less in five of his first six starts this season and he’s whiffed 37 over 42 2/3 innings. Even more encouraging is his 1.57 ERA through his first three home starts, this after posting a 5.55 home ERA last season. Holland has also done a much better job of keeping the ball in the yard, as he’s allowed just two homers so far. He served up 32 of them last year. Although I drafted Holland with the idea that I’d only pitch him on the road, I’ve seen enough improvement now to feel comfortable starting him regardless of the matchup.

Biggest Disappointment (Hitter): Miguel Montero

Maybe Miguel somehow found out that I’d be awarding him this dubious honor as he recorded just his third multi-hit game of the season on Friday night, one of those hits being his second home run. Coming off two straight seasons with at least a .282 batting average, 15 homers and 86 RBIs, Montero looked like one of the safest draft day investments at the catcher position. A .208 average with a .292 slugging percentage through 28 games? I didn’t expect this at all. Still, the strong track record combined with a very unlucky .237 BABIP suggest that Montero’s stat line is bound to improve. Buy low while you can.

Biggest Disappointment (Pitcher): Matt Cain

I rarely choose to keep expensive starting pitchers. This year, I made an exception, figuring that 22 bucks was decent value for Cain, who has been a longtime favorite of mine. Durable, consistent, dominant. The list of adjectives goes on and on when talking about the Giants’ ace righty. So of course, the year I opt to break tradition is the year that Cain falls off a cliff. 0-2 with a 6.49 ERA and nine homers allowed through his first six starts? This is crazy. But I’m not worried. Cain’s strikeout and walk rates remain roughly in line with his career averages, although it’s a bit scary that his BABIP allowed, .265, is almost exactly the same as last year’s .264 mark. But if there’s any pitcher who deserves the benefit of the doubt, it’s Matt Cain.

I’m not worried.

Monday, April 22 – 11:06 PM

Watching Felix Doubront pitch last week was so nerve-wracking. I drafted Doubront for $1 in Mixed Tout because I was intrigued by the high strikeout rate and the fact that he’s still just 25 years of age. I was well aware of the control issues but hoped that he could make strides in that area in his second full big league season. It looks like I was way off on this one, as the young lefty has issued nine free passes over his first 16 2/3 innings this year (three starts). And, when he isn’t walking a batter, he’s pitching into deep counts. So despite the tempting two-start week where he would be facing the A’s followed by the lowly Astros, I opted to sit Doubront and relieve myself of the headache. Why exactly do I own this guy if playing him in a two-start week with one decent matchup and one extremely favorable matchup gives me a headache? I have no idea. Well, of course Doubront goes out there tonight and limits Oakland to three runs on three hits over 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight. Well, at least he walked five. That makes me feel a little better. Why exactly am I rooting against my own players? This is nuts.

Wednesday, April 24 – 10:44 AM

By the time I remembered last night that Clayton Richard was pitching, he was already out of the game, and that’s a good thing. It’s a lot easier to learn that one of your pitchers got shelled by scanning a box score as opposed to watching the proceedings on live TV. It’s kind of like how ripping off a band-aid 1-2-3 is less annoying than slowly peeling it off inch by inch. You get it over with nice and quick. But back to Richard. He’s the ultimate start at home but bench on the road guy. From 2010 through 2012, the Padres’ southpaw posted a 2.94 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home as opposed to a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP away from Petco Park, and he had allowed a combined two runs over his first two home outings this season. Pitching him this week at home vs. the Brewers was a no-brainer. I guess not. Will I ever have the mental fortitude to trust Clayton again, even at home? I don’t know. I should though. Three seasons worth of extreme home/road splits is awfully convincing.

Thursday, April 25 – 9:58 AM

This is kind of embarrassing, but here goes. I woke up this morning thinking that Desmond Jennings had been sent down to the Minors. It took me only about 10 seconds to realize that it was just a dream, but where did this idea come from? I do own Jennings in a couple of leagues, one of them being Tout, and while he has yet to earn the $20 I shelled out for him (.300 OBP, 22-to-8 K/BB ratio through 21 games), five steals and 16 runs scored isn’t too shabby. I still have plenty of faith in the Rays’ centerfielder, but maybe subconsciously I’m panicking? Nah, though I do wish that Sigmund Freud lived in my neighborhood so that I can have a nice long chat with him about this. Too bad he died 74 years ago.

Thursday, April 25 – 10:03 PM

Another run allowed by Steve Cishek and another loss. The Marlins’ closer is now 1-3 on the year with a 5.40 ERA and just two saves in 10 appearances. What was I thinking drafting him in Tout? After all, I preferred Tom Wilhelmsen for my No. 2 closer spot and he wound up going for the same $10 that I spent on Cishek. The decision to go with Cishek could very well drive me crazy throughout the remaining five-plus months of the season. But wait a minute, let’s look on the bright side. Cishek’s WHIP (1.30) and 11-to-3 K/BB ratio are both solid, and a major reason for the three losses is that the Marlins keep on using him in tie games. He’s only blown one save. Things are bound to get better. And despite all this, I’m in 4^th place.

What am I thinking now? I’m in pretty good shape.