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Thursday 8th Dec 2016

The last couple of weeks, we looked at the top contenders for the Cy Young Awards and Most Valuable Player Award races in the American and National Leagues.

This time around, my focus is Rookies of the Year.

In the Senior Circuit, the situation is not unlike the MVP race, in that there is a clear front-runner, but the AL winner may come down to the wire.

Like Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs seems a shoo-in for the NL MVP, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager looks to be in the driver’s seat for the league’s top first-year player honors. In fact, Seager is the only rookie to receive serious mention in the MVP race, with an fWAR for the season second among all NL players, behind only Bryant (7.6 to 8.4).

Three other National League middle infielders should also receive respectable vote totals. Colorado’s Trevor Story got off to a very impressive start, but just as with St. Louis’ Aledmys Diaz, injuries slowed their first-year impact. Story was done for the year at the end of July, but by then amassed 27 home runs, while Diaz is being eased back into action late in the season.

Trea Turner of the Nationals took awhile to stick, but once he did, Washington added a plus bat and a player who can cover second and short as well as center field. Had Turner arrived in April and played this well all year long, it could have been a two-horse race with Seager.

The top NL rookie pitchers are imports. Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers does not blow hitters away, but mastered four pitches he can locate on demand and has already won 16 games. Seung-hwan Oh of St. Louis had over 300 career saves in Korea and Japan, but was setting up until Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal ran into injury and inefficiency. Since taking over the ninth in late July, Oh has been lights-out.

The American League Rookie of the Year race looks to be a toss-up.

In the first half, the award seemed headed for the engraver with Michael Fulmer’s name on it. The 23-year-old right-hander has faded since the break, but is still leading the league with his 2.95 ERA.

Now, the momentum is with Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez. As Hall of Famer Greg Maddux once famously said, “Chicks dig the long ball.” Despite having played in just 49 games this season and not becoming a regular until August, Sanchez has 20 home runs, reaching that mark faster than any player in MLB history. I think that is the 23-year-old’s ticket to the award.

In another year, Seattle closer Edwin Diaz could and perhaps should win. Despite not getting as much attention in the Northwest, the 22-year-old has fanned a whopping 82 in just 48 1/3 innings and saved 17 of 20 opportunities.

Two other early AL contenders have also fallen off a bit as the season wore on, but have bright careers ahead. Both are outfielders – Texas’ Nomar Mazara and Cleveland’s Tyler Naquin.

My prediction is that Seager will be the 2016 National League Rookie of the Year, with the controversial majority choice of Sanchez edging out Fulmer for the American League honor.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last week, we looked in on the contenders for the two Cy Young Award races for 2016.

In the American League, Boston’s Rick Porcello maintains a sizeable lead against all contenders, while the fight for the National League honors is narrowing down to Chicago’s Jon Lester or Max Scherzer of the Nationals, according to ESPN’s Cy Young Award Predictor.

However, the oddsmakers do not agree.

In odds published by Bovada.lv on Wednesday, in a surprise to me, Chris Sale has lowest odds in the American League at 8/5, with Porcello and Corey Kluber next at 2/1 each. ESPN has Kluber pegged as a distant second with Sale miles off the pace in fifth. The latter seems more accurate to me.

The National League odds do have Scherzer and Lester with the lowest odds, at 1/5 and 5/11, respectively. That is reversed from ESPN’s tool, where the pair are neck-and-neck.

Looking at the betting odds, the 2016 Most Valuable Player races suggest one clear favorite and one very tight race.

With the Cubs plowing their way to baseball’s best record, their offensive leader, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, seems to be the consensus front-runner in the NL. The oddsmakers concur, with Bryant at 1/2.

Next behind Bryant is the Nats’ Daniel Murphy at 3/2. The latter is second in the NL in batting average and has put together a strong season, but I cannot see him knocking off the Cubs star.

The only other candidate even on the NL MVP betting board is MLB RBI leader Nolan Arenado at 6/1. The third baseman is cursed by playing for a non-contending Colorado Rockies squad. I see his chances of actually winning as being considerably worse despite leading the NL in home runs, just one ahead of Bryant.

Looking at fWAR, Bryant is the NL leader, in large part due to his defense, with a contender no longer on the betting board, shortstop Corey Seager of the Dodgers, right behind. In a bit of a surprise, Bryant’s teammate, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, is also no longer on the board.

When looking at Bovada’s lines for the AL MVP, I was initially amazed. Then I stepped back and considered the importance of bettors’ emotions.

A player I had not previously considered among the very top tier of candidates, Boston designated hitter David Ortiz, has the lowest odds at 2/1. I get that the Big Papi Farewell Tour has been a smashing success, but until I looked, I did not realize that the 40-year-old is second in the league in RBI, though down the page in the top 10 in home runs and batting average.

This suggests to me that perhaps Ortiz should consider playing another season, but I don’t see him as the AL MVP.

Right behind Oritz at 9/4 is Houston star Jose Altuve. The second baseman is a far superior all-around player, with a Gold Glove Award from 2015, a firm grip on the AL batting title lead to go with more than 24 home runs and stolen bases alike plus well over 90 RBI.

Next on the AL odds list at 4/1 is the Red Sox player I would put slightly ahead of Papi in the MVP race, outfielder Mookie Betts. Betts leads the AL in runs scored (one back of Bryant for the MLB lead), has 25 steals, over 30 home runs, over 100 RBI and currently has the same .318 batting average as teammate Ortiz.

Sadly, the man who many (including me) believe is the best player in baseball is no better than 4/1 in the odds. Of course, I am referring to Mike Trout. The Angels outfielder is tied with the aforementioned Red Sox pair at .318, but his “meager” home run and RBI totals of 28 and 95, respectively, lag the leaders. Yet, his 26 steals are just one behind Altuve.

WAR is clearly Trout’s friend, backing up my perception of him being the best in the game. His 8.8 fWAR dwarfs even Bryant. But because the Halos have been out of the playoff hunt for a long time, Trout’s 2016 MVP chances lag behind.

As it has turned out, the man who was considered MLB’s best player during the prior decade and Trout’s current teammate, Albert Pujols, has better power numbers at 30 and 114.

I cannot get rid of this nagging feeling in the back of my head that Pujols should have doubled his MVP total of three had the voters been able to see through Barry Bonds at the time. In the future, for different reasons, we may also end up looking back at Trout’s dominance, wondering why he always came so close, only to miss out time and time again.

In 2016, Trout could easily finish second in the race for the fourth time in five years as a Major Leaguer, with his only win in 2014. Just one MVP to date just doesn’t seem right.

Still, when all is considered, I am going with Altuve as the AL winner. I think that is where the writers will land, as I don’t have a vote, after all. Trout may lag while Papi and Betts could steal first-place votes from one another.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

On late-night television over the past few weeks, I have been inundated by a series of commercials for cheap loans pitched by Ty Pennington. The carpenter was made famous as the screaming, bullhorn-wielding host of a crew of home remodelers on a long-since canceled show called Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.

Well, in National League LABR recently, I pulled my own version of a major makeover in hopes of pulling out a win this season. After leading the league during the first few months, I had settled into a second-place rut, with Derek Carty of ESPN holding a consistent 10-12 point lead.

With a little over a month to go, I once again analyzed the standings. Carty and I were neck and neck atop the five offensive categories, where I had a three-point aggregate edge. Pitching was another story, however, where I was 14 points behind.

With a deep starting staff, I could make up just one point in wins the rest of the way, where Carty was leading the way despite having lost Dodgers star Clayton Kershaw. However, there was enough opportunity to improve my ratios, strikeouts as well as saves to potentially close the gap.

At the time, I had just one closer, St. Louis’ Seung-hwan Oh, but I had a wealth of starters that included Stephen Strasburg (DL), Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Dan Straily, Tyler Anderson and Ivan Nova. Rookies Lucas Giolito and Jake Thompson were on my bench and on the disabled list were Tyler Chatwood and Tyson Ross, both on their way back. I would have no way to play them all, anyway.

I decided to keep at least two of my best starters plus Oh and add six more closers. That meant I would keep Strasburg and Martinez while leaving my offense intact.

I did not want to send out a broadcast e-mail as Carty also had a starting excess that he was trying to deal, so instead I contacted a series of my peers individually trying to make trades.

I was quickly reminded of an important lesson to remember when assembling teams. Power always seems to have a trade market, but it is more difficult to unload excess speed and saves.

This lesson both helped and hurt me in my endeavors. Had I been willing to part with offense, I could have acquired one or more of the top closers: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen and Jeurys Familia. Sticking to my plan, I could not pry any of them loose.

Instead, I made two trades, adding five closers: Tony Watson, Santiago Casilla, Tony Cingrani, Fernando Rodney and Jeanmar Gomez. The starters I gave up included Garcia, Straily, Anderson, Nova, Thompson and an extra reliever, Enrique Burgos, I had picked up trying to chase saves.

As the trade deadline passed, my team makeover was complete.

At best, I thought I could make a run at Carty, and worst, I would finish third or fourth instead of second. The latter would be remembered only by me, anyway, so I went for it.

Less than two weeks in, early returns indicate that my plan has not taken hold. I have fallen into third, having lost one point in pitching. Worst of all, my offense, which I did not disturb, has dropped five.

There is still almost a month remaining in the season, so I am not panicking yet. Perhaps my six-closer approach just needs more time to click. Either way, it doesn’t matter. The trade deadline is past and I have made my bed.

No matter what happens, I will be fine with it. I saw no reasonable chance of winning and instead took a shot at a radical approach to make a difference. During a time of year when most of us are focusing on football, I took the time and effort to personally contact eight peer owners and made a pair of big trades. If I can somehow pull out a victory, it will be highly gratifying. And if not, I know I gave it my very best.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

With less than three weeks remaining in the 2016 Major League Baseball regular season, it is a good time to check on the races for the top pitching awards in the American and National Leagues, the Cy Young Awards.

If the annual recognition was decided by algorithms instead of via the votes of selected members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, what we might get is results similar to a tool that runs on ESPN’s website.

The “MLB Cy Young Predictor” formula, borrowed from sabermetric pioneer Bill James and Rob Neyer, includes innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, walks, saves, shutouts, wins, losses and provides bonus points for a division title. The intent is not to determine the best pitcher, but instead to most accurately predict where the voters will land.

It seems to work pretty well, with nine of the last 10 winners over the most recent five years correctly predicted by the formula. The one miss was a second-place finisher in the real voting.

Here in 2016 in the Senior Circuit, three-time winner Clayton Kershaw is out of the race, having missed over two months before returning this past Friday. That leaves a scrum among six players, all within eight points on a basis of 165.

Half of them are employed by the Chicago Cubs, with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks, currently ranked third, fourth and fifth, respectively. In reality, winning could be a challenge for any of these three. All are worthy, but with none of them standing out over the others, votes could be split.

The current leader, Max Scherzer of Washington, was the 2013 American League winner while with Detroit and also has another pair of top-five finishes. He is closely followed by Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, just 1.8 points behind.

Scherzer is on track to make four more starts. If he continues his most recent success, he could solidify his lead. Over his last four outings totaling 29 1/3 innings, the 32-year-old right-hander has allowed just four runs for a 1.21 ERA. Scherzer fanned 34 against just four walks.

Jansen isn’t about to concede, however. Since allowing a run on August 26, the right-hander has fired off eight straight scoreless appearances with six saves on just two hits and no walks to go with 13 punchouts. Simply dominating.

I would still make this a clear call for Scherzer except for one thing. His final start would be in Game 162. However, the Nats will have the East Division and the second NL post-season seed locked up long before then. Instead, manager Dusty Baker may rest Scherzer for part or all of the game, or even rejuggle his rotation to maximize his ace’s post-season starts.

While the NL race may go down to the wire, any intrigue over the identity of the American League winner appears to be over.

Ironically, the clear leader is Scherzer’s former Tigers rotation mate, Rick Porcello. The rub for Detroit is neither 2016 Cy Young Award leader is still with the team. They traded Porcello to Boston in the Yoenis Cespedes deal prior to the 2015 season, during the same winter that Scherzer departed as a free agent.

Already logging 20 wins in his first 30 starts, Porcello has a dominating 25 1/3-point lead over Corey Kluber in the projected Cy Young Award race. Cleveland’s Kluber, the 2014 winner, seems too far behind at this late date to make an effective charge. In other words, Porcello would need to pull a colossal collapse to lose his edge.

Who knows? Perhaps the former Detroit teammates could meet on the game’s biggest stage in late October before taking home the top pitching awards the next month.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Tout Wars is not one league. It is a collection of five different leagues, including draft and head-to-head formats on top of the three traditional auction leagues. In addition, a new game was created in 2015 and continued this year – a once-per-week daily game, held each Friday at RTSports, which allows all of the Touts to compete directly.

Looking back, I have to admit that I did not give Tout Daily my all in 2015 as my time was spread thin and my personal commitment to daily was still developing. By 2016, however, I added this new game to my list of season-long fantasy baseball priorities. The ultimate goal was to win the finals, but to get there, one had to place in the top three of at least one of five different four-week competitions.

While I ultimately fell short, I had a fun journey getting there. I share some of my thoughts to perhaps encourage others reluctant to jump headfirst into the daily waters to try a hybrid approach like this one.

It was definitely a fun and interesting year. I got out of the blocks strongly in April, winning the first of five “Phases” against the initial 46 participants with a total of 233.66 points over the four weeks. That gave me my first finals ticket.

I let down in Phases 2 and 3, barely making the top 20. I knew I needed to take action, so to stay motivated for the remaining months, I set a secondary target to amass the most points over the course of the 20 weeks - even though those who set up the game do not believe that distinction is significant enough to earn a finals ticket. As you can tell, I really disagree. But that is another battle for another day.

In Phase 4, held in July, I rebounded to fifth place, setting up my Phase 5 rebirth. I finished third, second and fourth, respectively, in the first three of the four weeks, but just 11th in the final week of the final Phase. That was still more than enough, 18 points to be accurate, for me to handily take the Phase 5.

That made me the only competitor to win two of the five Phases, a fact that only I seemed to recognize. Since finals tickets were given to the top three performers each month, finishing in first means no more than finishing in third. It doesn’t seem right, but that’s the way it is.

That 11th place finish in the final week cost me my secondary goal of totaling the most points over the 20 weeks. On a base of 1060 points over the season, I finished second by a minuscule 1.03 points, to fast-finishing Todd Zola, my Mastersball partner. Lord Z had won Phase 4 and finished second to me in Phase 5. The other Phase winners were Patrick Davitt of BaseballHQ in Phase 2 and Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN in Phase 3.

The finals, a single-week competition held Friday, August 26, consisted of 15 entries, submitted by 12 Tout owners. Jeff Erickson of Rotowire was the third competitor with two finals tickets, joining me and Zola with multiple entries.

The pre-finals banter among my peers served as additional motivation. Zola’s fast finish drew him favored status from several of our industry peers, as it should, but my considerable success was barely noted.

My challenge with two tickets was to come up with an approach to win, of course. Before looking at the matchups, I thought I might lock in on a pair of pitchers and take separate hitting stacks in the two entries.

However, once I saw the starters, it seemed like Chris Sale was head and shoulders above everyone else. Yet, given his steep price of $9400, I was reluctant to handicap my offense in both entries. I settled upon one pitching-heavy entry and one pitching-light one.

Lineup #1 had Sale and Jeff Samardzija ($7300) while lineup #2 sported Mike Montgomery ($4900) and David Phelps ($4400). It was notable that Sale’s price was $100 more than my pair of Lineup #2 pitchers combined.

RTSports limits stacking to four players per MLB team per entry, so I had to choose wisely. For Lineup #1, I took Detroit, which was facing Ricky Nolasco. Lineup #2 featured a quartet of Toronto Blue Jays against a soft-tossing lefty from Minnesota named Pat Dean.

The Tigers only got to Nolasco, now of the Angels, for four runs in 6 1/3 innings. While I hit on Justin Upton, my choices of Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler were eclipsed by Cameron Maybin and J.D. Martinez, two outfielders not among my starters.

The Jays predictably knocked out Dean after three innings and six runs crossed home and went on to score 15 against the Twinkies. Unfortunately, the three Toronto hitters who did the most damage were not in my lineups – Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak.

As a result, despite all the big planning, my highest scoring hitters of the evening were not part of the stacks. At just $2600, catcher Gary Sanchez was 58 percent owned, so it was not surprising that the Yankees rookie was the only player on both of my rosters. He scored 14 points Friday evening.

My other top scorer has been playing out of his mind, my choice for National League MVP, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant. Despite being red-hot coming in, Bryant was just seven percent owned. Perhaps highly-touted Julio Urias starting for the Dodgers against the Cubbies was a factor, though the rookie ended up going Saturday, with Bud Norris making the Friday start instead. Another factor may have been Bryant’s $6200 price tag, made possible in my lineup by the bargain pitching duo.

I never check on my results until after the early games are done, though I admit I wanted to a few times during the evening. I joined in the scoreboard– and game-watching during the late contests, and with the Cubs and Samardzija still active, hope remained. I finally threw in the towel when Addison Russell flied out to mid right in extra innings at Dodger Stadium. Even the golden voice of Vin Scully was not consoling at that point.

It was 1:32 a.m. on Saturday. Only because of Tout Daily was I still up watching a Major League Baseball contest in the middle of the night – and following every pitch!

Walton DFS results 082616

As indicated above, my two rosters ultimately came in fourth and eighth, respectively. Lineup #1, powered by 37 points from Sale and Shark, fell just 5.66 points short of first. Lineup #2 still finished ahead of all four of the other dual entrants’ rosters.

If I couldn’t win, it was nice to see another Phase winner in Davitt end up on top. Congratulations to Patrick, the 2016 Tout Wars Daily Champion!

You can read more about the competition and the finals on the Tout Wars website as well as dig into the weekly results spreadsheet, but only if you are so inclined. If you have any questions about the rules or format, feel free to post them below. I had a lot of fun with this and hope you might consider something similar with your friends in 2017.

 

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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