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DownloadIf you read my Mastersblog post about my American League LABR auction over the weekend, you may have sensed that all did not go according to plan.
And that is true but only to a point. After leaving my 20-20 strategy to get Kevin Youkilis to anchor my hitting and corner infield, I did a pretty good job of acquiring a lot of talent for twenty and teen investments. The most important thing was that all of them had room for growth (in their projected stats/values) and thus could add profit.
Two thirds of the way through the draft, I had the following players rostered:
Hitters
Pitchers
Putting Zobrist at second would give me two-thirds each of my middle and corner spots handled, one of my good catchers, and three very nice outfielders. I have more power than it appears at first blush and good run and stolen base product. On the pitching side, Feliz is really a wild card at this point: Will he be a top AL starting pitcher, or one of the best closers? Irrespective, I have two good starters to two closers,or three good starters and just one closer.
Then the tough part came. I had a solid target list for the corner/middle infielde spots and decided my third base target would be Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas. Unfortunately I waited a little too long to grab a middle infielder early enough to clarify that picture, and when J.J. Hardy went for $18 (not that everyone agrees that he will be a great rebound target, just that he was far and away the best shortstop at that point in the auction) I was forced to do battle with the dark grey side and go to $14 for the Twins Alexi Casilla. But, at least Casilla has both second and shortstop eligibility, and finally the chance to be a full time player in Minnesota this year. And that could lead to plenty of stolen bases.
When Moustakas came up he was unbeknownst to me the primary target for Lawr. While he was outbid when the NFBC team of Greg Ambrosius and Shawn Childs decided to go to a dollar per player for the rest of the draft by bidding $13, I had a quandary. Do I go to $14 and win the player? If so, I will be crippled on adding better players for the remainder of the auction. Ultimately for me this decision was based on the fact that I don’t think "MooseTacos" will be the starting third baseman on Opening Day (if he was an everyday player Moustakas probably wouldn’t have still been available, but then I would have gone the extra dollar or two.
Unfortunately all this meant there was no good third baseman left to draft.
Enter Plan B – and while not centered on third base specifically it did include a hopeful there. What I decided to do was upgrade my reserve roster during the auction. Now I know this may not be legal in your league but under LABR rules I could buy minor league players in the auction. True, I could hope to get some in the six round reserve draft but everyone would be looking for those same players. I had enough dollars to adequately fill out my pitching staff and still get two or three very good minor league players that I believe will contribute this season. And contributing will be the key. As an aside for this type of team or plan, while Mike Trout the young Angels phenom may be a far more valuable fantasy player to own over the next three to five to ten years, I doubt he will get anywhere near the at bats in 2011 that Moustakas or Dustin Ackley or others will. And 2011 production is all you are interested in for redraft leagues.
So I got Ackley for $7 – I can move Zobrist to the OF when the young Mariner arrives.
I bought Lonnie Chisenhall who has been absolutely scorching the ball so far in spring training as a third baseman. Sadly the Indians are so confused about whether to fish or cut bait that they spent millions on Orlando Cabrera and are playing him out of position instead of letting one of their good young prospects get the at bats. So, I don’t think Chisenhall will be in Cleveland on opening day – I just hope he is up by June. And really that is my view with all three of the minor leaguers in my lineup – I don’t need all of them to play this year. I don’t need any one of them to play all year. I need two of them to be up by June and play well (or some combination that exceeds that stat wise).
So here is the team:
C – Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba (better than most teams at catcher)
CI – Kevin Youkilis, Lonnie Chisenhall, & Daric Barton (with Andy LaRoche up for Chisenhall in March)
MI – Alexi Casilla, Alexi Ramirez, and Dustin Ackley (with Wil Rhymes or Luis Valbuena in for Ackley to start)
OF – Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, Juan Rivera, and Nolan Reimold (or Jarrod Dyson)
DH – Eric Hosmer (with a reserve taking his place until then)
SP – Jeremy Hellickson, Brian Duensing, Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Mike Montgomery (for now)
SP/RP? - Neftali Feliz
RP – Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit
Drafted reserves were – Andy LaRoche (3B/OAK), Wil Rhymes (2B/DET), Luis Valbuena (2B/CLE), Jarrod Dyson (OF/KC), Sergio Santos (RP/CWS), and Eric Hurley (SP/TEX).
On Opening Day, I have all the slots covered. If Hurley doesn’t win a spot in the Rangers rotation he will be dropped for another pitcher. Similarly if Dyson doesn’t open with the Royals he will likely be dropped for a more useful hitter or pitcher. I really only need one of Nova or BFB Colon (yes I was severely reprimanded during the auction for just saying “Colon for $1” instead of using the full handle of Big Fat Bartolo--otoh he has pitched well so far – and yes I know it’s only March, but any starter with the Yankee offense behind him is a plus in AL only leagues). And if Colon doesn’t make the team he is another easy drop.
And then I just wait for my young guns to arrive – and hopefully have the team in contention for them to help with. At least that was my plan Saturday and I still think it has a solid chance today.
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It is Saturday morning and I am usually either doing the first draft of the next Captain’s Log or perhaps proofreading it by now, for publication during the week.
But this Saturday is different. This Saturday I am trying to figure out what to do in a 20, yes I said TWENTY team league. I guess the good news is that I have the seventh pick Sunday night so I know I will get a stud right away. But, good grief Charlie Brown, look at all the excellent players who will disappear over the next twenty-six picks while I wait.
I would love to start the draft with Troy Tulowitzki, but if he is gone I am guessing I will start with one of the top first basemen and while I would like Andrew McCutchen to make it back to 2.14, it is probably more likely I will have to choose between two good second basemen. With the Rangers having announced that Ian Kinsler will lead off this year, I think I will take him over Dustin Pedroia - I will just have to carry a good backup for Kinsler’s annual trip to the DL.
Well that was the pre-plan. Let’s look at what actually happened, and my thought process assembling a team in this very deep format:
1.07 As luck would have it Tulo was mine.
3.07 I wanted to get a Tier 2 SP, so I took Justin Verlander.
4.14 I took Pedro Alvarez as the third base spot had dried up severely and I didn’t want to go lower there (I did think I could wait on 1B and even 2B).
5.07 If Mike Napoli had not been there for me I would have really waited on a catcher.
Aside: Did I tell you how long it seems to wait twenty six picks? If I don’t take
6.14 With pitchers flying off the board in twenty pick rounds, I needed to get a solid corps, even if it meant delaying on closers, so Ted Lilly hopped aboard.
7.07 Daniel Hudson added as well giving me three solid starting pitchers.
8.14 Here I picked Angel Pagan – I was hoping to add three double digit homers/20+ swipes to my outfield.
9.07 Joel Hanrahan became my first closer.
10.14 Okay I had waited enough and got the solid if unspectacular Adam LaRoche.
11.07 I wanted to pair Pagan with Andres Torres but some Giant fan snagged Andres, so I got Austin Jackson who should have already been rostered.
12.14 Second base goes to Danny Espinosa: 20/20 potential with the youngster.
13.07 Fernando Rodney becomes my second closer, for anyone who can spell save is getting drafted in this league.
14.14 He may start the year in the minors but I think Michael Pineda will be solid when he arrives in
15.07 I added Alexi Casilla for speed and the 2B/SS eligibility
16.14 Rick Porcello – I like the upside on an improved Tiger team.
That fills the basic roster and in the four reserve rounds I added Peter Bourjos, Tyler Clippard, Mike Moustakas, and J.P. Howell (who will go to a DL slot right away and let me add another pitcher – but he could have value when he returns).
Did I mention how long it is between picks in 20 team leagues?
The American League lineups, even with the additional hitter, seem more locked in and ready to go than those in the NL. Of course, that could change for both the AL Champion Texas Rangers should they actually trade Michael Young.
As of today the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays seem to be settled on their hitters other than moving a few hitters up or down in the lineup. The other AL teams have the following question marks:
BOSTON RED SOX – Will shortstop Marco Scutaro be healthy and ready to start the season AND stay ahead of Jed Lowrie? There is a nagging question of whether catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Salty for short) is truly ready to be the number one catcher, but the Sawks have Jason Varitek to help and play more if necessary.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX – Third base seems to be the only true position battle depending on whether prospect Brent Morel can clearly win the job from Mark Teahen and Dayan Viciedo. As of today it seems like Morel will be the starter on opening day.
CLEVELAND INDIANS – With Orlando Cabrera signed to play either second base (or shortstop if they shift Asdrubal Cabrera to second) the unsettled position seems to also be third base. Jayson Nix and Luis Valbuena seem poised to battle for this unless the Indians give middle infielder Jason Donald a chance. Later in the season I would expect either Jason Kipnis or Lonnie Chisenhall to be playing third over the opening day starter.
DETROIT TIGERS – Assuming Miguel Cabrera is ready to go on opening day; the lineup appears to be pretty well set. If the Tigers sit catcher Alex Avila against LHP which they clearly should do, then Victor Martinez would catch those games and there would be some additional at bats at designated hitter, perhaps some days off the field for Magglio Ordonez and a chance for one of the younger outfielders to be in the lineup.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS – Will any of the talented young Royals move up from the minors on opening day? Two have a good chance. The first would be CF Lorenzo Cain obtained in the Zach Greinke trade. If Cain is not ready to play every day in Kansas City, veteran Melky Cabrera will be in center. The other, perhaps slightly less likely would be third baseman Mike Moustakas. If Moustakas starts at AAA then plans would be for Mike Aviles to start the season at third with Chris Getz at second. Moustakas on the opening day roster means a decision on those two would have to be made at second base. Veteran catcher Jason Kendall could well surprise but is likely not to be ready to play until May at the earliest which would have Brayan Pena or Lucas May catching.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS of ANAHEIM – The Angels really appear to be set everywhere except third base and even that is a choice or platoon of hitter on the club last year – likely Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood. There are also some questions about how many at bats each of the catchers will get. Jeff Mathis is the best defensive catcher, certainly endearing him to manager Mike Scioscia a former catcher himself. But Mathis struggles at the plate and that will certainly give Bobby Wilson some at bats or finally open the door for highly touted prospect Hank Conger, a good switch hitter who while not as good defensively is not bad and rates to be the Halos catcher of the future.
MINNESOTA TWINS – No position battles for the Twins, but first baseman Justin Morneau missing any time at the beginning of the season would force some temporary reassignments in RF and DH.
SEATTLE MARINERS – Things would appear to be set with the Mariners’ lineup aw ell Unless highly touted prospect Dustin Ackley forces his way into the lineup at second base before opening day. Otherwise Brendan Ryan should be holding down the spot until Ackley is recalled from AAA.
TEXAS RANGERS – Is Michael Young still a Ranger? Is so he will DH against RHP and play some second when Ian Kinsler is out of the lineup and give both shortstop Elvis Andrus and third baseman Adrian Beltre a day off here and there, perhaps playing some first base as well. If Young is traded it may weaken the Rangers clubhouse and depth but a platoon of Mike Napoli and David Murphy at DH would be very effective.
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With spring training games set to start Friday we should take a quick look at the few positional battles for each team. Today we will do National League teams and follow it up Wednesday with a look at the AL teams.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – The one job not settled with the new Kirk Gibson version of the Snakes is at first base where Juan Miranda, obtained in a trade from the Yankees was set to compete with Brandon Allen. The Diamondbacks have recently thrown a third hat in to the ring signing veteran 1B/DH Russell Branyan to a minor league contract to compete for the job. The problem with this competition is that all three bat from the left side of the plate thus negating what might be an effective platoon. If Branyan hits well enough to make the club, I would expect Allen (who still has minor league options while the others don’t) to be sent to AAA Reno so he can hit every day. Miranda was the pre-Branyan favorite and I still think he wins the job – But he can’t afford a poor spring training allowing either of the others to steal the job.
ATLANTA BRAVES – There isn’t really a position battle IF Chipper Jones is really healthy enough to return this year and thus send Martin Prado to left field. Given Jones’ injury history though either Joe Mather or Jordan Schafer could see more at bats than most fourth outfielders.
CINCINNATI REDS – Manager Dusty Baker has said that Paul Janish is his starting shortstop this year. Assuming Janish has a good spring training that is likely but he had better perform with Edgar Renteria breathing down his neck and not really suited for a utility role. Left field is also slightly unsettled although I would expect a platoon of newly acquired Fred Lewis with the returning Jonny Gomes. Lewis will have some additional value if this comes to pass as he should lead off against RHP.
COLORADO ROCKIES – Second base is the position in question for the Rockies with Eric Young Jr. competing against former Mariner Jose Lopez. Free agent signee Ty Wigginton could also figure in this mix assuming that Ian Stewart strengthens his hold on third base and veterans Todd Helton and Jason Giambi hold down first base. There are three outfielders – Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Ryan Spilborghs competing for two spots alongside CarGo, with Smith the early favorite to start in right field.
FLORIDA MARLINS – If Marlins prospect Matt Dominguez can show he is ready he could be starting at third base on Opening Day. If he starts at AAA then veteran Wes Helms would figure to hold down the hot corner, perhaps spelled occasionally by Emilio Bonifacio.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS – Speculation is that veterans Marcus Thames and Jay Gibbons will platoon in Left field, BUT there is the possibility that Tony Gwynn Jr. could play so well in the spring that the Dodgers would start him in CF, moving Matt Kemp to RF and Andre Ethier to LF. Sadly none of these scenarios give Xavier Paul any chance to play much.
NEW YORK METS – Who will start at second base? Veteran Luis Castillo is still on the roster and there are some who want Daniel Murphy to get a real shot at the job which would improve the offense. Given that the Metropolitans don’t rate to contend in the NL East, it would be more interesting if former Toronto Blue Jay prospect Brad Emaus were given the shot to start his major league career.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – Most of the reporting on the Phillies centers on that starting rotation, but I am far more interested in who will start the season in right field. I think most expected that with Jayson Werth leaving that uber prospect Domonic Brown would be in right, but it appears that the Phillies aren’t sold on Brown being fully ready and there is talk of him either platooning with Ben Francisco or returning to AAA in which case Francisco might platoon with Ross Gload. Hopefully Brown, likely a strong 20/20 player will get his shot.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES – The main question for the rebuilt Pirates is whether they can find a team that want to trade for Ryan Doumit. If not, he may see some at bats at catcher where Chris Snyder is the starter or right field where Garrett Jones should be platooning with Matt Diaz, or even first base although Lyle Overbay was signed to be there every day.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – The only unsettled position battle in the Bay seems to be right field if Mark DeRosa is finally healthy and might take at bats from Nate Schierholtz. It is also possible for the Giants to get Pat Burrell some at bats there letting Cody Ross play every day in left field.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – If David Freese is healthy enough there will be no question about third base but that does not appear to be the case making utility infielders Nick Punto or Tyler Greene candidates to start at third. There was a rumor that OF Allen Craig might be given a shot at third as well.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS – If Rick Ankiel is the everyday left fielder than Roger Bernadina will have to settle for fourth outfielder at bats or battle for them with Mike Morse who once again has no position to get his bat into the lineup.
At least the hitting spots in Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee and San Diego appear to be set for now.
In the next Captain’s Log we will take a look at AL position battles.
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So here is a WCOFB (fourteen team leagues) draft listing the first round of picks and who each of those teams got in the second round.
1.01 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (2.14 Joe Mauer, C, MIN)
1.02 Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA (2.13 Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX)
1.03 Albert Pujols, 1B, STL …. (2.12 Adam Wainwright, P, STL)
1.04 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL (2.11 Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS)
1.05 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL (2.10 Matt Kemp, OF, LAD)
1.06 Carl Crawford, OF, BOS..(2.10 Felix Hernandez, P, STL)
1.07 Roy Halladay, P, PHL …..(2.08 Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX)
1.08 Joey Votto, 1B, CIN ……. (2.07 Kevin Youkilis, 1B, BOS)
1.09 Ryan Braun, OF, MLW … (2.06 Matt Holliday, OF, STL)
1.10 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY (2.05 Ryan Howard, 1B, PHL)
1.11 Evan Longoria, 3B, TB …. (2.04 Prince Fielder, 1B, MLW)
1.12 David Wright, 3B, NYM..(2.03 Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY)
1.13 Chase Utley, 2B, PHL …..(2.02 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS)
1.14 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS (2.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY)
My observations on this draft (which I participated in – extra credit for guessing my draft spot before continuing) are:
a) While pitchers are more important in this contest than the NFBC or other mixed leagues, I am still not a fan or drafting a pitcher in the first or (early) second round as you are passing on an impact bat for your offense;
b) I would take Doc Halladay anywhere late in the second round and while I would prefer to draft King Felix early in the third round, I could see taking him at 2.12 or 2.13 if you think the team(s) behind you might do the same or take him with the first or second pick in the third round;
c) I think Mauer can be an impact player at catcher but you have to realize that absent a return to double digits in home runs and more than a handful of stolen bases, you are paying a VERY high premium for the empty BA boost;
d) I dislike the start of the roster construction of the two drafters who started the draft OF/OF. There are lots of outfielders who can significantly help your offense in multiple categories available later in drafts, but failing to get one of the top eight first basemen or top four third basemen or one of the few impact middle infielders when that WAS available means you are going to have problems both correcting that AND getting the starting pitchers you need later in the draft;
e) Some of you may think that Youkilis going in the second round is early but in addition to his pretty consistent numbers in four categories, remember that his shift to third base this year would allow that drafter who missed the top third basemen to take a flyer at 3B, draft another solid first basemen later in the draft and then move Youkilis to third base in Week 3;
f) I like the positional starts of the teams that were able to start by going 1B/3B, 2B/3B, SS/2B, 1B/2B and the aforementioned 1B/1B.
I won’t be doing any twelve team mixed leagues this year, but this one presented by our friends at KFFL is interesting not only for the ADP but because of the commentary by each industry participant about their choice.
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