Salient is an excellent design with a fresh approach for the ever-changing Web. Integrated with Gantry 5, it is infinitely customizable, incredibly powerful, and remarkably simple.
DownloadBut when the sports auditors at Examiner.com wanted to have their own league, I could hardly turn down the invitation. No I don’t need another league, but I am their national fantasy baseball writer and, especially after having won the examiners fantasy football league much to the chagrin of the football writers, I had to draft a team.
Sunday morning preplan thoughts
Now I just have to make a plan to beat them. Here are my predraft observations for a league I don’t normally play in - a very shallow 12-team mixed league. And with short rosters – the standard Yahoo configuration of one infielder at each position with three outfielders and two utility players along with two SP, two RP and two pitchers.
The good news is I don’t have to have a second catcher. The better news is I got them to ditch the innings pitched maximum. So how should I draft this team?
Many might wait on a catcher since with only 12 being drafted the last few will be decent. But in my opinion there is such a big potential drop off after the first five that if you can get one of them without a hit to the rest of your team you will have a big edge.
Secondly, the top infielders will be at a huge premium, although you are obviously restricted by your draft position – which I won’t know until I check into the draft room tonight.
It does seem that waiting on pitching should work, and there are so many guys who won’t be in the top 12 that I like that I can wait until the top two tiers (three and then six) go off the board before I dive in and hopefully can find some of Max Scherzer, Cole Hamels, Tommy Hanson, and Mat Latos to put into my SP slots. Neftali Feliz will be a huge wildcard, but as he is the centerpiece of my AL keeper league I am happy to let someone try and beat me with him.
Sunday night draft results
Well part of my plan above was scrapped in round one as I had the tenth pick in the draft and they took all the usual suspects leaving me Carl Crawford – and I couldn’t pass him up there. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it started me thinking and that little bubble led me to pick Kevin Youkilis in the top of the second round. Not that I don’t like Youk – and he should be an RBI machine in the Red Sox lineup, and I was looking at moving him to third base in week three. That would mean I would draft a second first baseman starting them at UT for the two weeks and take a flyer on a third baseman I knew I could draft late (Edwin Encarnacion was stuck in the back of my mind).
By the time I was up in round three I was perhaps over confident in my plan –especially thinking that I could grab Aubrey Huff later and so with both Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia gone, and Brian McCann already off the board, I decided to get Victor Martinez and be well ahead there. I should have taken Adam Dunn who was the next player off the board.
Round four choices were not what I wanted on the hitting side, so I decided with a starter. And with Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw, and Jon Lester already gone, I went with Dan Haren. At least Todd would like the pick. Round five’s decimation of my list concluded with Hunter Pence taken right in front of me, so I continued to build the staff with Jered Weaver there and Carlos Marmol on the turn.
The play by play might be interesting to some but my game is getting ready to start in the mud. Suffice it to say that if they take it away from you someplace they have to give it back somewhere else – who could imagine getting Kung Fu Panda in the ninth round (after someone had taken Aubrey Huff in the eighth!). Of course I got some back in the 12th (wink).
So here is the whole team, with round drafted in parentheses (remember this is a 12-team, 24-round draft and teams start ten hitters and six pitchers).
C – Victor Martinez (3)
1B – Kevin Youkilis (2)
2B – Ben Zobrist (7)
3B – Pablo Sandoval (9)
SS – Starlin Castro (11)
OF – Carl Crawford (1)
OF – Curtis Granderson (8)
OF – Andres Torres (14)
UT – Mike Napoli (12)
UT – Adam LaRoche (16)
SP – Dan Haren (4)
SP – Jered Weaver (5)
RP – Carlos Marmol (6)
RP – Huston Street (13)
P - - Max Scherzer (10)
P - - Jeremy Hellickson (15)
Hitting Reserves – Danny Espinosa (17), Manny Ramirez (18), & Austin Jackson (20)
Pitching Reserves – Brandon League (19), Koji Uehara (21), Jair Jurrjens (22), Clay Hensley (23), & Travis Wood (24).
I might be a little short in BA but everything else looks fine – but of course I am staring through raindrops at the field.
As always, questions and discussion is welcome on the message board.
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Experienced auction players are very familiar with the concept of inflation in keeper leagues where bargains on some of the very best players mean there are more dollars chasing the available players than there should be. But in actual practice, how do some of the very best players deal with an auction with very high inflation?
The league I am referencing held its NL only auction yesterday – still almost three weeks before opening day. We can do that because the definition for those eligible for both the auction and reserve draft allows for players on the forty man roster and not strictly major league versus minor league. Both Todd and I, with our partners, play in this 12-team league composed of some of the best high-stakes players in the country. So it is not an easy thing to fight through the jungle to get your team. Witness the fact that with only $58 spent on my eight keepers (the max – some would have to keep less) I though that my $202 of auction money would put me in very good shape.
I wasn’t even the team with the most dollars to spend – there was someone with $215 and another with $216, and five teams with more than $200. The poorest team had $132 to spend. Minor leaguers (each team gets only three) have $5-salaries, and that means players like Jason Heyward, Cameron Maybin, Tommy Hanson, Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus contribute to the heavy inflation. But so do players bought for $1, $2, or $3 in the previous year’s draft. Teams can only keep an active player for three years, so some rotation of the player pool is automatically enforced.
But heading into this year’s auction, only Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez would be among the top-10 available hitters. However, most of the top pitchers would be in the pool – nine of the top 11 starting pitchers.
My team kept three hitters – Kelly Johnson, at $20, Colby Rasmus at $5, and Chris Snyder at $4. I also had Buster Posey on my minor league roster and would activate him for $5 but obviously chose to do that post auction so I could buy any $1-catcher and then put Posey in that spot.
On the pitching keepers, I had Ian Kennedy at $10, Jorge de la Rosa at $2, Craig Kimbrel at $10, Drew Storen at $5, and Hong-Chih Kuo at $2.
Now I would need to buy four more pitchers and eleven hitters.
But what kind of budget should I consider?
I thought both Pujols and Hanley would go for close to if not over $50, even if neither were projected to earn over $42. But very high inflation does not necessarily mean you can go spend $50+ on the best players without cutting yourself thin at other positions. Sure you could plan to buy several $1- or $2-players, but in a sharp crowd that would likely mean you had several unproductive slots amongst your 14 hitters. And with 12 teams each having seven reserves and three minor leaguers, you would be hard pressed to cure your ills with the available free agent pool. One other note – there is NO trading in this league.
I prepared two basic budgets – one that would pay up to $50 for Pujols or Ramirez and one that would have my highest hitter in the high $30’s and adding a good, not Tier-1 starting pitcher for $20+.
Twenty-two percent inflation would suggest that Pujols would go in the low $50s and Ramirez in the low $40s. Not even close my friends. When the smoke cleared in the first round, Pujols went for $60 and Hanley for $58. So they weren’t on my team – now what?
I needed a lot of everything on the hitting side and would just have to try and zig and zag – and like you will in a few weeks, I would have to make some bets on certain players. Unfortunately we sometimes don’t really get to choose which number we want our money to ride on. Below Pujols at first base the next best available players would be Carlos Pena or Adam LaRoche. Miss there and after James Loney you would be in the Lance Berkman, Ty Wigginton, and Lyle Overbay tier. It was worse at shortstop where below Ramirez there was Jimmy Rollins and then a severe drop to Jason Bartlett and then an even more severe drop to Alex Gonzalez or Yuniesky Betancourt.
While not a big believer in Rollins putting up anything close to 2007 numbers, I was relatively happy to roster him for $26, where I might have paid for actual value or have a dollar or two of upside. I was even happier to roster Carlos Pena for $19 – well my power side was, my BA gremlin was in for a long day. LaRoche actually went for $20 which would have been fine – who knew in advance, but Loney was clear up to $17.
And then I did a lot of waiting, hoping to catch players at/near value – Raul Ibanez ($13), Alfonso Soriano ($16), Bartlett ($14), Placido Polanco ($9), and Overbay ($6) helped give me the flexibility to reach later for players I had to get – Andres Torres ($25) and Mike Morse ($16) and to move $5 to the pitching budget where I added Tim Hudson ($18), Derek Lowe ($8), Johnny Venters ($8) to handcuff Kimbrel and then have some extra to reach for Tim Stauffer at $12.
Here is the whole roster:
C – Snyder (4) & Kottaras (3) with Posey waiting
CI – Pena (19), Polanco (9), & Overbay (6)
MI – K. Johnson (20), Rollins (26), & Bartlett (14)
OF – Rasmus (5), Ibanez (13), Soriano (16), Torres (25), & Morse (16)
UT – Juan Miranda (9) [who can be moved to CI if a reserve is productive enough]
Reserves – Brandon Boggs, Jason Bourgeois, Chris Denorfia
SP – T. Hudson (18), D. Lowe (8), Stauffer (12), Kennedy (10) & De La Rosa (2)
RP – Kimbrel (10), Storen (5), Kuo (2), & Venters (8)
Reserves – K. Wood, J. Arredondo, Lannan, & K. Kendrick
Glad to answer questions on price points for any player on the message boards.
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If you read my Mastersblog post about my American League LABR auction over the weekend, you may have sensed that all did not go according to plan.
And that is true but only to a point. After leaving my 20-20 strategy to get Kevin Youkilis to anchor my hitting and corner infield, I did a pretty good job of acquiring a lot of talent for twenty and teen investments. The most important thing was that all of them had room for growth (in their projected stats/values) and thus could add profit.
Two thirds of the way through the draft, I had the following players rostered:
Hitters
Pitchers
Putting Zobrist at second would give me two-thirds each of my middle and corner spots handled, one of my good catchers, and three very nice outfielders. I have more power than it appears at first blush and good run and stolen base product. On the pitching side, Feliz is really a wild card at this point: Will he be a top AL starting pitcher, or one of the best closers? Irrespective, I have two good starters to two closers,or three good starters and just one closer.
Then the tough part came. I had a solid target list for the corner/middle infielde spots and decided my third base target would be Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas. Unfortunately I waited a little too long to grab a middle infielder early enough to clarify that picture, and when J.J. Hardy went for $18 (not that everyone agrees that he will be a great rebound target, just that he was far and away the best shortstop at that point in the auction) I was forced to do battle with the dark grey side and go to $14 for the Twins Alexi Casilla. But, at least Casilla has both second and shortstop eligibility, and finally the chance to be a full time player in Minnesota this year. And that could lead to plenty of stolen bases.
When Moustakas came up he was unbeknownst to me the primary target for Lawr. While he was outbid when the NFBC team of Greg Ambrosius and Shawn Childs decided to go to a dollar per player for the rest of the draft by bidding $13, I had a quandary. Do I go to $14 and win the player? If so, I will be crippled on adding better players for the remainder of the auction. Ultimately for me this decision was based on the fact that I don’t think "MooseTacos" will be the starting third baseman on Opening Day (if he was an everyday player Moustakas probably wouldn’t have still been available, but then I would have gone the extra dollar or two.
Unfortunately all this meant there was no good third baseman left to draft.
Enter Plan B – and while not centered on third base specifically it did include a hopeful there. What I decided to do was upgrade my reserve roster during the auction. Now I know this may not be legal in your league but under LABR rules I could buy minor league players in the auction. True, I could hope to get some in the six round reserve draft but everyone would be looking for those same players. I had enough dollars to adequately fill out my pitching staff and still get two or three very good minor league players that I believe will contribute this season. And contributing will be the key. As an aside for this type of team or plan, while Mike Trout the young Angels phenom may be a far more valuable fantasy player to own over the next three to five to ten years, I doubt he will get anywhere near the at bats in 2011 that Moustakas or Dustin Ackley or others will. And 2011 production is all you are interested in for redraft leagues.
So I got Ackley for $7 – I can move Zobrist to the OF when the young Mariner arrives.
I bought Lonnie Chisenhall who has been absolutely scorching the ball so far in spring training as a third baseman. Sadly the Indians are so confused about whether to fish or cut bait that they spent millions on Orlando Cabrera and are playing him out of position instead of letting one of their good young prospects get the at bats. So, I don’t think Chisenhall will be in Cleveland on opening day – I just hope he is up by June. And really that is my view with all three of the minor leaguers in my lineup – I don’t need all of them to play this year. I don’t need any one of them to play all year. I need two of them to be up by June and play well (or some combination that exceeds that stat wise).
So here is the team:
C – Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba (better than most teams at catcher)
CI – Kevin Youkilis, Lonnie Chisenhall, & Daric Barton (with Andy LaRoche up for Chisenhall in March)
MI – Alexi Casilla, Alexi Ramirez, and Dustin Ackley (with Wil Rhymes or Luis Valbuena in for Ackley to start)
OF – Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, Juan Rivera, and Nolan Reimold (or Jarrod Dyson)
DH – Eric Hosmer (with a reserve taking his place until then)
SP – Jeremy Hellickson, Brian Duensing, Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Mike Montgomery (for now)
SP/RP? - Neftali Feliz
RP – Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit
Drafted reserves were – Andy LaRoche (3B/OAK), Wil Rhymes (2B/DET), Luis Valbuena (2B/CLE), Jarrod Dyson (OF/KC), Sergio Santos (RP/CWS), and Eric Hurley (SP/TEX).
On Opening Day, I have all the slots covered. If Hurley doesn’t win a spot in the Rangers rotation he will be dropped for another pitcher. Similarly if Dyson doesn’t open with the Royals he will likely be dropped for a more useful hitter or pitcher. I really only need one of Nova or BFB Colon (yes I was severely reprimanded during the auction for just saying “Colon for $1” instead of using the full handle of Big Fat Bartolo--otoh he has pitched well so far – and yes I know it’s only March, but any starter with the Yankee offense behind him is a plus in AL only leagues). And if Colon doesn’t make the team he is another easy drop.
And then I just wait for my young guns to arrive – and hopefully have the team in contention for them to help with. At least that was my plan Saturday and I still think it has a solid chance today.
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It is Saturday morning and I am usually either doing the first draft of the next Captain’s Log or perhaps proofreading it by now, for publication during the week.
But this Saturday is different. This Saturday I am trying to figure out what to do in a 20, yes I said TWENTY team league. I guess the good news is that I have the seventh pick Sunday night so I know I will get a stud right away. But, good grief Charlie Brown, look at all the excellent players who will disappear over the next twenty-six picks while I wait.
I would love to start the draft with Troy Tulowitzki, but if he is gone I am guessing I will start with one of the top first basemen and while I would like Andrew McCutchen to make it back to 2.14, it is probably more likely I will have to choose between two good second basemen. With the Rangers having announced that Ian Kinsler will lead off this year, I think I will take him over Dustin Pedroia - I will just have to carry a good backup for Kinsler’s annual trip to the DL.
Well that was the pre-plan. Let’s look at what actually happened, and my thought process assembling a team in this very deep format:
1.07 As luck would have it Tulo was mine.
3.07 I wanted to get a Tier 2 SP, so I took Justin Verlander.
4.14 I took Pedro Alvarez as the third base spot had dried up severely and I didn’t want to go lower there (I did think I could wait on 1B and even 2B).
5.07 If Mike Napoli had not been there for me I would have really waited on a catcher.
Aside: Did I tell you how long it seems to wait twenty six picks? If I don’t take
6.14 With pitchers flying off the board in twenty pick rounds, I needed to get a solid corps, even if it meant delaying on closers, so Ted Lilly hopped aboard.
7.07 Daniel Hudson added as well giving me three solid starting pitchers.
8.14 Here I picked Angel Pagan – I was hoping to add three double digit homers/20+ swipes to my outfield.
9.07 Joel Hanrahan became my first closer.
10.14 Okay I had waited enough and got the solid if unspectacular Adam LaRoche.
11.07 I wanted to pair Pagan with Andres Torres but some Giant fan snagged Andres, so I got Austin Jackson who should have already been rostered.
12.14 Second base goes to Danny Espinosa: 20/20 potential with the youngster.
13.07 Fernando Rodney becomes my second closer, for anyone who can spell save is getting drafted in this league.
14.14 He may start the year in the minors but I think Michael Pineda will be solid when he arrives in
15.07 I added Alexi Casilla for speed and the 2B/SS eligibility
16.14 Rick Porcello – I like the upside on an improved Tiger team.
That fills the basic roster and in the four reserve rounds I added Peter Bourjos, Tyler Clippard, Mike Moustakas, and J.P. Howell (who will go to a DL slot right away and let me add another pitcher – but he could have value when he returns).
Did I mention how long it is between picks in 20 team leagues?
The American League lineups, even with the additional hitter, seem more locked in and ready to go than those in the NL. Of course, that could change for both the AL Champion Texas Rangers should they actually trade Michael Young.
As of today the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays seem to be settled on their hitters other than moving a few hitters up or down in the lineup. The other AL teams have the following question marks:
BOSTON RED SOX – Will shortstop Marco Scutaro be healthy and ready to start the season AND stay ahead of Jed Lowrie? There is a nagging question of whether catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Salty for short) is truly ready to be the number one catcher, but the Sawks have Jason Varitek to help and play more if necessary.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX – Third base seems to be the only true position battle depending on whether prospect Brent Morel can clearly win the job from Mark Teahen and Dayan Viciedo. As of today it seems like Morel will be the starter on opening day.
CLEVELAND INDIANS – With Orlando Cabrera signed to play either second base (or shortstop if they shift Asdrubal Cabrera to second) the unsettled position seems to also be third base. Jayson Nix and Luis Valbuena seem poised to battle for this unless the Indians give middle infielder Jason Donald a chance. Later in the season I would expect either Jason Kipnis or Lonnie Chisenhall to be playing third over the opening day starter.
DETROIT TIGERS – Assuming Miguel Cabrera is ready to go on opening day; the lineup appears to be pretty well set. If the Tigers sit catcher Alex Avila against LHP which they clearly should do, then Victor Martinez would catch those games and there would be some additional at bats at designated hitter, perhaps some days off the field for Magglio Ordonez and a chance for one of the younger outfielders to be in the lineup.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS – Will any of the talented young Royals move up from the minors on opening day? Two have a good chance. The first would be CF Lorenzo Cain obtained in the Zach Greinke trade. If Cain is not ready to play every day in Kansas City, veteran Melky Cabrera will be in center. The other, perhaps slightly less likely would be third baseman Mike Moustakas. If Moustakas starts at AAA then plans would be for Mike Aviles to start the season at third with Chris Getz at second. Moustakas on the opening day roster means a decision on those two would have to be made at second base. Veteran catcher Jason Kendall could well surprise but is likely not to be ready to play until May at the earliest which would have Brayan Pena or Lucas May catching.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS of ANAHEIM – The Angels really appear to be set everywhere except third base and even that is a choice or platoon of hitter on the club last year – likely Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood. There are also some questions about how many at bats each of the catchers will get. Jeff Mathis is the best defensive catcher, certainly endearing him to manager Mike Scioscia a former catcher himself. But Mathis struggles at the plate and that will certainly give Bobby Wilson some at bats or finally open the door for highly touted prospect Hank Conger, a good switch hitter who while not as good defensively is not bad and rates to be the Halos catcher of the future.
MINNESOTA TWINS – No position battles for the Twins, but first baseman Justin Morneau missing any time at the beginning of the season would force some temporary reassignments in RF and DH.
SEATTLE MARINERS – Things would appear to be set with the Mariners’ lineup aw ell Unless highly touted prospect Dustin Ackley forces his way into the lineup at second base before opening day. Otherwise Brendan Ryan should be holding down the spot until Ackley is recalled from AAA.
TEXAS RANGERS – Is Michael Young still a Ranger? Is so he will DH against RHP and play some second when Ian Kinsler is out of the lineup and give both shortstop Elvis Andrus and third baseman Adrian Beltre a day off here and there, perhaps playing some first base as well. If Young is traded it may weaken the Rangers clubhouse and depth but a platoon of Mike Napoli and David Murphy at DH would be very effective.
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