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DownloadWell the freeze deadline passed without being able to make a deal – not for lack of effort but Jeff Erickson of Rotowire decided he liked Chris Carpenter ($18) and Johnny Cueto ($13) over Jonathan Papelbon ($17) and/or Arodys Vizcaino ($4) and a supplemental draft upgrade. Which means I had to cut one of those pitchers or one of the eight hitters I had planned on keeping.
Ultimately I decided to continue with an AC/DC approach to 2012: keep the best players to compete this year (I only have one FARM eligible player) and hope to find the right players in the auction to give me a chance to win in 2012.Then I can enhance what turn out to be weak spots and gain prospects in the supplemental draft in March. And, if that fails to produce a contender then trade off the contracts I won’t want in 2013 and get ready with more quality prospects (remember this is a keeper league that functions like a dynasty league).
Obviously that meant keeping Papelbon over Vizcaino. And I chose to do that even if it meant having two closers that would earn only a modest profit because I can nominate closers (and first basemen) everytime the bid gets to me and let the others battle it out for those players.
So here is my freeze list:
C – J.P. Arencibia (4)
1B – Gaby Sanchez (7)
CI – Justin Smoak (7)
2B – Darwin Barney (6)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (34)
OF – Melky Cabrera (6), Juan Pierre (11), and Jerry Sands (4)
SP – C.J. Wilson (11), Jhoulys Chacin (9), Vance Worley (10), and Ryan Vogelsong (10)
RP – Heath Bell (16) and Papelbon (17)
FARM - Jarrod Parker (AZ)
That leaves me $108 to spend on C, 3B, MI, two OF, UT and three pitchers (hopefully one very cheap closer or a nice closer in waiting and two cheap starters).
The auction will be this Friday at 3 PM at First Pitch Arizona. If you can’t stop by you can hear the broadcast/interviews from the draft on the fantasy sports channel on XM-87/ Sirius-210.
No I am not deranged talking about freeze decisions in October – the XFL, a 15-team experts keeper league entering its tenth season, holds its auction draft on the first weekend of November at First Pitch Arizona.
So I have one day left to submit my freeze list. The good news is that I am down to 16 players – the bad news is I can only freeze 15.
To help you understand the auction dynamics I have to explain that while we end the auction with the “standard” 23 players rostered for $260 (plus any FARM eligible prospects), we complete our 40-man rosters with a 17-round supplemental draft in March. So you can fix any roster deficiencies either via trades or with those supplemental picks.
Try as I might this season, I couldn’t get Captain Hook’s mates out of the lower third of the league, and so at the trade deadline I traded my 11th or possible 10th place finish for 12th place when I dealt Mike Napoli ($23) and Hiroki Kuroda ($9) for Jarrod Parker, a very promising starting pitcher who may well be in the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation next March (and a required ML body, in this case catcher Miguel Olivo ($7)). None of those active players were likely keepers since they faced a $5 increase to be frozen on to 2012 rosters.
After the season ended, I got busy trying to acquire more youth or players I think will exceed their freeze prices next year. So here are the trades I made:
So now one day before I have to submit my freeze list, I put Jonathan Papelbon ($12+5) and Arodys Vizcaino ($1+3) on the trading block, hoping to turn one or both into picks in the March draft. Papelbon should make at least a small profit no matter where he signs and together with Heath Bell would solidify a strong position in saves. But it would also cost me 13 auction dollars versus keeping Vizcaino (another player who exceeded our incredibly small innings (10) trigger to kick him off the Farm). I would love to build on the fly with Vizcaino (and Parker and some well-priced hitters like Arencibia, Smoak, and Gaby Sanchez ($4+3), but if the Braves bring back most of their starters and Julio Teheran gets the last rotation spot over Vizcaino, I won’t get real value from him until 2013 at $1+3+3.
What would you do absent a trade offer?
As we head towards the last month of play in the American League Central, the misplaced high hopes generated by a quick start by the 2011 Royals has given way to a much better look at what should be a Royals team flush with rising young stars.
From March’s opening day roster, Alcides Escobar obtained in the Greinke trade with the Brewers is still at shortstop; Alex Gordon the former first round pick has found his home in left field; and Billy Butler continues to just hit – now a full time designated hitter. There are two more Royals still on the field – center fielder Melky Cabrera, thought by many to just be a placeholder from speedster Lorenzo Cain (also obtained in the Greinke trade), has been the Royals best hitter all year and a fantasy gold mine if you were smart enough to draft him, approaching a 20-20 season hitting .310 with 15 home runs, 70 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. People tend to forget that the “Melkman” once a prized Yankee prospect is still just twenty-seven years old. Since the Royals didn’t trade Cabrera, there is good reason to think they are now smart enough to plan on keeping him in the 2012 lineup.
Another former prospect from the Atlanta organization – right fielder Jeff Francoeur is also just twenty-seven and has been very solid for the Royals, now hitting .270 with 15 home runs, 64 RBI, and 18 stolen bases. Francoeur also has a very good chance to be a 20-20 player this year.
Either Cabrera or Francoeur if not both should be in the opening day lineup next year as catcher turned outfielder Wil Myers is at least another year away from the big club.
During the season, Royals fans as well as fantasy players have seen the arrival of:
1B – Eric Hosmer
2B – Johnny Giavotella
3B – Mike Moustakas
Just last week, the Royals showed their fans another piece of the Royals to be when they promoted catcher Salvador Perez. Perez, just twenty-one, hit .290 with 10 home runs and 53 RBI between AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha and has already shown fans a great arm behind the plate and the excellent defense that Royals scouts have seen in his development.
What remains to be seen is the development of a solid major league pitching staff. True the Royals have lots of good arms in the minor leagues, but Mike Montgomery presumed to be the most advanced of those pitchers has had a very poor season this year while John Lamb another good LHP prospect lost the season to surgery. Jake Odorizzi also obtained in the Greinke trade is a year behind but still looks like he could join the Royals by 2013. Danny Duffy, another good LHP was promoted this year but has struggled – as many young pitchers do. Still he should be better next year. The club did promote several relievers who did a good job this year and will convert RHP Aaron Crow to a starter next season.
It may have seemed far away, but the Royal Flush should arrive in Kansas City within the next year or two. Finally.
Fantasy baseball may be based on major league baseball, but it isn’t close to MLB in many ways – but next week there is an important area your league should share with the major league clubs.
Sunday will be July 31 and the non-waiver trade deadline for MLB. And sometime in the first week of August should be your league’s trade deadline too. My AL keeper league and many leagues use the first weekend in August, which this year will be Aug 6 & 7. August 1 and 2 are the earliest it could be with those rules. You want to have it after the July 31 date so everyone can see how those first and likely most impactful trade will affect your teams and players.
But the main reason for an early August trade deadline in fantasy baseball leagues is so that a late deadline trade can’t impact your league’s standings. With an early August trade deadline, fantasy players have two months to battle it out with the rosters they have and common access to the free agent pool.
All of the above is primarily for keeper and dynasty leagues. Frankly I think redraft leagues should follow the lead of the national high stakes contests and not have any trades. If there is no future value for acquired players and no cost to ending up with a terrible roster, what is the incentive for teams to always have equitable trades? And how would you legislate trade regulations?
Maybe if your redraft league feels it has to allow trading they should have an All Star break trade deadline. That would liven up the days off and create some great All Star parties. And it would be less likely to have poor trades made. Most teams could benefit from a trade then as they would still have a chance to catch up in most categories.
Let’s see what happens in keeper league trades over the next two weeks – that should provide some very entertaining stories for a future column.{jcomments on}
Okay, back from the All Star break with the weekend series and we want to see what minor league prospects might be up this month that would help fantasy teams.
There have been a lot of questions about Tampa Bay outfielder Desmond Jennings. Lots of analysts want to put him on the top of lists because of his potential and his speed. But the Rays are competing without a huge need in the outfield thanks to contributions from Sam Fuld (at least early in the season) and Matt Joyce who is on pace for 25+ home runs and plays most days (sitting against tough LHP). Jennings will miss at least 2-3 weeks now with a fractured index finger so I doubt we see him until the September call-ups arrive.
I think the Arizona Diamondbacks made a mistake in recalling 1B/OF Brandon Allen when they sent Juan Miranda back to the minors. While Allen has been hitting well (not terrific - .306 with 18 home runs, but striking out more than the last two years) at Triple-A Reno, he still has a hole in his swing which I think major league pitchers will take advantage of in short order. Meanwhile 1B Paul Goldschmidt, the minor league leader in home runs with 26, is still raking at Doulbe-A Mobile (.311 average with 81 RBI and a .656 slugging percentage) and had a two run homer in the Southern League All Star game.
I would keep a close eye on Allen because if he fails, Goldschmidt might get a quick call and I don’t think he needs time at AAA to hit well in the NL West and help the Diamondbacks. He also has a little speed for a few stolen bases, a big plus from a 1B/CI.
Brett Lawrie was supposed to have been recalled in late May but was hit on the hand by a pitch that fractured his hand and is just now playing on rehab and working his way back. I think he will still be up before September, but the Blue Jays look like they will be very cautious with him. When Toronto does call him up he should play every day at third base and be an immediate contributor with the power and even a little speed.
Certainly not a prospect, but Carlos Guillen returned to action at second base for the Detroit Tigers over the weekend. I am skeptical about continuing production for Guillen but in deeper AL leagues he may be a welcome addition at a MI slot.
I also think the Tigers will have to turn to one of their pitching prospects soon as they are clearly poised to win the AL Central if they can get some good pitching. The Phil Coke and Charlie Furbush experiments failed to hold down a spot in the rotation and with Rick Porcello struggling again the Tigers need another starter. Whether that is Andrew Oliver or Jacob Turner or someone with less pedigree that they might feel more comfortable with is the question. Detroit might also try and fill that rotation spot via trade and the rumors have them ready to trade pitching prospect Casey Crosby. Personally I would want to see some results first if they promote a minor leaguer.
Finally I still think that Cleveland will recall Jason Kipnis to play second base in their quest for the AL Central pennant. Orlando Cabrera has had his moments but they are fewer and further between now, and Kipnis has more power potential.
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