Mastersball

Captain's Log


The George Springer Derby PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Thursday, 17 April 2014 00:00

While George Springer is owned as a minor leaguer in most AL keeper leagues, some AL redraft leagues and lots of mixed leagues will have a chance to bid this week on a potential 30-30 hitter.

In case you aren’t familiar, the Houston outfielder played last year at Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Oklahoma City and totaled 37 home runs and 45 stolen bases. Okay, he won’t hit that many in the American League and his .303 batting average last year is likely going to take a severe hit against major league pitching, where he will miss a lot of balls. But he is being called up in April, not missing all of April and most of May as do many top minor league prospects who are held back for financial reasons. I still think if he adjusts well (no one can predict the mental adjustments no matter how good the tools), a 30-30 season would be in reach. The 24-year-old right-handed batter does play his home games in a favorable park and gets to visit both Arlington and Anaheim, which treat right-handed hitters well.

So how much will it take to roster Springer this weekend?

Obviously, league factors differ, but what was the winning bid in your league on Mike Trout a few years ago? Really, the numbers aside from the BA are comparable at least in HR/RBI/SB – Springer doesn’t figure to score as many runs as the Angel phenom.

I suspect that in the NFBC format in leagues where he wasn’t rostered on draft day (and in some of those he has already been dropped with all the injuries forcing owners to make tough decisions), it will take a minimum of 500 FAAB units to have a good chance to land Springer.

I won’t be able to bid on him there – in the 15-team main event, one of my opponents drafted Springer in the 17th round (where Greg Morgan and I drafted Dan Straily – but we did draft Javier Baez in the next round) while in the 12-team Rotowire Online Championship, my partner and I drafted him in the 27th round.

But he will be in my lineup on Friday – I hope you have him on a team already or get a chance to add him this weekend – he will be fun to watch.

Last Updated on Friday, 18 April 2014 01:05
 
Week Two = Patience & Diligence PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Wednesday, 09 April 2014 00:00

As always, the early season reminder for your fantasy teams is PATIENCE.

Your star outfielder is not going to hit .200 all year and your ace starter will get some wins and your second SP will come off the DL. Too often we see people panic and make drops, or even worse, trades that will haunt them the rest of the season.

The trades are worse because not only are you trading low but you are potentially strengthening your opponent at the same time. That is not relevant in NFBC leagues but the poor drops are. In my AL keeper league of almost 30 years, I put in a rule several years ago after one impatient owner thought his draft had been terrible and traded most of his expensive players for cheap contracts, prospects and first-round draft picks for the following season. The problem, aside from virtually being out of play for the rest of the season, is that as drafted his team would have finished in the money. Give peace and your players a chance.

At least the ones you can’t replace easily. For the first few weeks in almost any league, there are lots of good choices and there is no particular reason if you drafted a player who was or is a mistake to not get a better player from the free agent pile ASAP.

Personally, I would not drop any of the short-term DL players in any format – Aroldis Chapman, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, David Robertson, Wilson Ramos and likely Mark Teixeira will come back and contribute to your team later. But unless you have DL slots in your league, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Patrick Corbin, Miguel Sano, Jarrod Parker and Jameson Taillon should all be dropped – they won’t be back this year. In keeper leagues, hopefully you have the DL slot or enough roster space to keep them for the future, but if not and you can contend this year, remember that is always Job 1.

Depending on when you drafted or how deep your league is, here are a few slightly under the radar players I would look to add this weekend:

Jason Kubel, OF, MIN – With Chris Colabello (likely already picked up but if not put at the top of the list) for now entrenched in the DH slot, Kubel will have to fight for at-bats in left field, but they can’t keep his bat on the bench.

Conor Gillaspie, 3B, CWS – Gillaspie, not Matt Davidson, won the third base job for Robin Ventura’s club and is an underrated hitter.

Jesus Guzman, 1B/OF, HOU – Guzman doesn’t have a clear position but they have to find at-bats for a good hitter with some pop in his bat (two home runs in the first week).

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY – Yes I know he was poor last year – flip the calendar already, he is hitting over .400 and will get some steals, and in case you didn’t remember, the rest of the Yankees' outfielders are on the all-brittle team.

Aaron Harang, SP, ATL – For now at least, behind a good Braves team, Harang is a decent spot play (not as good as his first game this year but not as bad as you remember). Next week he has a start at the Mets on Tuesday.

Edinson Volquez, SP, PIT – On my personal scary list but had a very good first start and is home Monday against Milwaukee and it could be a two-start week.

If you are truly desperate for saves, Shawn Kelley may get a few more (but not a lot) before David Robertson comes back in two weeks. And while Jonathan Broxton is due back in Cincinnati this week, Manny Parra might still get a few matchup or two-inning saves for the Reds.

Again, while you need to be diligent on free agents, be patient with some of your players who will come around – Please.

Last Updated on Thursday, 10 April 2014 02:28
 
One Last DC Draft - Express Version PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Monday, 24 March 2014 00:00

Last Friday, I did my last DC (Draft Challenge) in the NFBC. This Mastersball entry, as my non playing co-pilot is Lord Zola, was an express draft – all 50 rounds done in one sitting.

Sadly, this one lasted five and a half hours as we had some drafters apparently new to the system and perhaps the concept. But, the field did include former NFBC Champion Terry Haney, who managed on several occasions to nab the player who was at the top of my short list for that round's pick. But that is the nature of a snake draft and you must push past the irritation and get a good team. So here is the beginning of my draft by rounds with thoughts still stuck in my head and then the roster by position for your analysis.

I was drafting out of the 10 hole – not what you want but as they say, "When they give you lemons, make great lemonade."

1.10 - Adam Jones – A very safe 100/30/100 hitter with some steals and a good BA

2.06 - Yasiel Puig – With all of my clear targets gone, I felt it was Go Big or Go Home time

3.10 - Mark Trumbo – I had a list of the Tier 2/3 SP (Kershaw being Tier 1 and promoting Jose Fernandez from Todd’s fourth tier) and with only Kershaw, Darvish, Scherzer and Strasburg drafted in the first two rounds, I felt I would bet that one of the remaining eight pitchers in my queue would fall to me in the 4th round and preferred that bet to the fact that one drafter behind me might take Trumbo’s power (most left in draft) with one of their two picks. Didn’t happen, so…

4.06 – Craig Kimbrel – So I switched gears to take the best closer off the board and get the strikeout boost which would promote one of my pitchers up a tier.

5.10 – Anibal Sanchez – Happy to get one of the Tier 4 pitchers there

6.06 – Jose Altuve – I was actually looking for Everth Cabrera here but he went at 5.15, so taking the best MI option available

7.10 – Kyle Seager – In this round, I was nipped on Prado and Cain, so I took the best 3B available

8.06 – Doug Fister – Not sure why he fell but glad to have him as my second starter (also Tier 4)

9.10 – Jason Castro – I was looking for Frieri or Jennings but they went right before my pick, so I took the best catcher with the top-11 already gone

10.06 – Alexei Ramirez – After my Castro pick, I thought about getting my second closer or Danny Salazar, but he and Frieri and Grilli disappeared so I addressed two key needs at SS and speed

11.10 – Jered Weaver – Happy to take quite a discount on a very good pitcher (another Tier 4) and again, add Kimbrel’s extra strikeouts and see how much more attractive Weaver would be

12.06 – Jim Henderson – The closer pool was thinning far too fast but Henderson should be fine and I can add K-Rod cheaply

13.10 – Russell Martin – Before things got really ugly at the position, I chose Martin over Miguel Montero

14.06 – Jose Veras – I took Veras over Nate Jones for my third closer and it’s really hard to find saves at this point in the draft (only Hawkins/Brothers and Feliz/Soria were left)

15.10 – Avisail Garcia – Three players I had queued went in this round (Reddick, Estrada and Ventura the pick in front of me) but glad to add my third outfielder, who I think will have a big year

16.06 – Drew Smyly – This one not only for Todd but to solidify my core starting pitchers (on picks 5-8-11-16) Not sure anyone has four better here (but will check later)

17.10 – A.J. Pollock – Having lost some of my favorite double-digit HR/SB contributors, I reached for Pollock here but check the results in September

18.06 – Adam LaRoche – My third CI and some needed home runs

19.10 – Dee Gordon – IF in fact he platoons at 2B for the Dodgers, he will add a LOT of needed stolen bases and for now is my third MI

20.06 – Chris Owings – Okay, not for long as it looks like Owings has won the job in Arizona and will be a very productive hitter (and I can pick the one that does the best Down Under)

21.10 – Chris Iannetta – Wanting a third starting catcher (and hoping to pair with Conger later)

22.06 – Nathan Eovaldi – A nice NL pitcher who I think will break out for my fifth SP

23.10 – Drew Stubbs – Reports are that Stubbs has won the centerfield job for the Rockies and will lead off at least part of the time

24.06 – Garrett Jones – A two position player for roster flexibility and some added power

25.10 – D.J. Lemahieu – My second 2B and more speed

26.06 – Josh Fields – If named the closer, I will have four (at least to start the year) and some won’t have two – may not be needed to win this particular league but I want to win the overall money too

27.10 – Conor Gillaspie – Has won the third base job and gives me my second 3B plus more lineup options

28.06 – Tanner Scheppers – This may be a great two way pick as Scheppers (who has great stuff) is now in the Rangers rotation when he was thought to be in the mix with Feliz and Soria – maybe he will return there

29.10 – J.B. Shuck – A very good fourth OF for the Angels and very playable when Hamilton is on vacation

30.06 – Zach Lee – May have won the fifth spot in the rotation but if not just a call away when Maholm doesn’t work or Beckett is re-injured

31.10 – Robbie Ross – In case he wins the fifth spot for Texas

32.06 – Alex Colome – Ditto for Tampa

33.10 – Josh Collmenter – Spot starts or relief roles a valuable arm

34.06 – Eric Stults – The Padres fifth starter in a good park

35.10 – Bruce Chen – Very good spot starter, especially if the Royals are really good

36.06 – Aaron Sanchez – Tremendous prospect who has just won a Toronto rotation spot

37.10 – Chris Capuano – Would be very valuable if he gets into the Red Sox rotation

38.06 – Jordan Pacheco – Do you know who the backup catcher is in Colorado? Also behind Morneau at first base

39.10 – David DeJesus – Very good for extra outfielder/UT

40.05 – Nick Punto – Valuable like Swiss army knife – 2B/3B/SS eligibility

41.10 – Carlos Corporan – I got sniped earlier on Conger so will back up Castro instead

42.06 – Antonio Bastardo – For the name but what if the Phillies can trade Pap?

43.10 – Paul Maholm – Zach Lee insurance

44.06 – Sean Marshall – Not fully healthy or he would be in the committee while Chapman is out, but could get back there and be useful later in the season as well

45.10 – Andy Dirks – Like a second half pickup when there aren’t any

46.06 – Vidal Nuno – Yankees rotation far from stable

47.10 – Brandon Cumpton – In competition for Pirates' fifth starter or could get called up later

48.06 – Brian Flynn – One of Marlins' top pitching prospects

49.10 – Miguel A. Gonzalez – Sent down by Phillies but will be in rotation later in the year

50.06 – Juan Perez – 4th outfielder for the Giants who has played very well this spring and last year and how healthy are Pagan and Morse?

I hope you read (or skimmed) all of those, but let’s look at the roster:

C – J. Castro, R. Martin, Iannetta, Corporan

1B – Trumbo (OF), LaRoche, Pacheco

3B – Seager and Gillaspie + Punto (2B/SS as well)

2B – Altuve, LeMahieu + Gordon will qualify

SS – Ramirez, Gordon, Owings

OF – A. Jones, Puig, A. Garcia, Pollock, Stubbs

OF – G. Jones (1B), Shuck, Dirks, Perez

SP – A. Sanchez, Fister, Weaver, Smyly, Eovaldi, Scheppers

SP – Z. Lee/Maholm, Colome Stults, B. Chen, Aa. Sanchez, Nuno, Cumpton, Flynn, Gonzalez

CL – Kimbrel, Henderson, Veras

RP – Fields, Ross, Collmenter, Bastardo, Marshall

Lots of position flexibility to maximize HR and SB (hitters can be switched on Mondays and Fridays).

19 of the 25 hitters are starters or platoon.

Very good in Saves (only one other team has three).

Only three other teams have three starting catchers.

But there are six months to go with just these players so we will see who survives in addition to who produces. I want to not only win this league but have enough points to be in the overall leaders for all DC leagues – there is $20,000 to the overall winner.

Your questions/comments are always welcome here or in the Forums or on Facebook

Last Updated on Monday, 24 March 2014 08:48
 
Tout Mixed Draft Review PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Friday, 14 March 2014 00:00

While the Tout Wars drafts in NYC are auction leagues, a 15-team mixed draft league was added last year, and I was glad to be back for my second year in the league.

My team faded to fourth place last year and I hope to do better in this year’s contest. To start, I drew the second slot in this year’s draft (the priority for slot selection given in order of last year's finish) which was held Tuesday evening (if you didn’t watch the draft live, HERE is a link to the completed rosters and the draft by rounds).

A few important notes before I give you my team or you inspect rosters – Tout leagues now use on-base percentage instead of batting average. In addition, there is only a four-man reserve squad. The other key difference is that when you FAAB a player, they must be in your active lineup for the upcoming week. Another unusual aspect to this league is that the first FAAB run will be run on March 23. Okay, onto my picks.

The good news was that I would get a stud contributor in four or five categories with my first selection – the bad news was waiting almost two rounds to see who they left me in the second round. After NFBC’s Tom Kessenich selected Mike Trout with the first pick, I took Miguel Cabrera and his massive OBP.

miggy

That made me much happier in the second round when strangely Carlos Gomez was available, and I readily clicked DRAFT. What I don’t understand is 13 other teams passing on Gomez and his counting stats just because his OBP might be lower than last year’s median .330. But pairing CarGo2 with Miggy would put me well above average.

Two picks later, I took my first pitcher, Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez (fourth off the board after Kershaw 1.09, Darvish 2.06 and Scherzer 2.15).

On the 4/5 turn, I was looking for the best bats I could find and selected 1B/OF Mark Trumbo at 4.14 followed by C Carlos Santana and his projected .377 OBP balancing Trumbo nicely and giving me solid counting stats at C1.

I was planning on taking Everth Cabrera on the next turn but he went at 6.08, so I took Jose Altuve for my 2B slot and then took Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez at 7.02.

Readers of my earlier draft articles know I think Khris Davis of the Brewers is set to break out in a big way this year and I was happy to draft him in the eighth round and add my pick at 9.02, Dodger starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. A few interesting notes on trends in this draft and then I will list my full roster with draft slots at the end.

One thing you can count on if you are thinking about the next position to attack or player you want is that someone is likely to pull them off the board while you watch. That happened with several infielders and on the secondary closer run (Cishek 10.04, Papelbon 10.05, Rafael Soriano 10.06 and even Fernando Rodney 10.08 all disappeared from my queue in the tenth round). Then there was the final closer run, when Joakim Soria (22.09) and Josh Fields (22.10) were taken when I was going to take either one or both in that round/turn.

There was definitely a heavy discount applied to the starting pitchers who have injury issues this spring in this draft. Here are the four prominent examples with their Tout draft slot and NFBC ADP

Cole Hamels went at 12.02  (NFBC avg 6.12, latest 13.15)

Hisashi Iwakuma went at 11.12  (NFBC avg 8.10, latest 12.03)

Doug Fister went at 12.09  (NFBC avg 11.04, latest 13.10)

Kris Medlen went at 23.02  (NFBC avg 9.04, latest 23.10)

I was the one who took Medlen as my seventh starting pitcher with the outlook that if he has surgery, he will be my first drop (again an early FAAB run) or if he is on the disabled list I can DL him (unlimited DL slots in Tout leagues) and add a replacement.

That was also the reason I took Andy Dirks with my last reserve pick at 27.02. I will DL him and pick up either another hitter or perhaps a pitcher if I have a greater need there.

I did draft Javier Baez, the talented, young Cubs power hitter with my pick in the 22nd round. That was after other drafters had speculated on George Springer (16.09), Yordano Ventura (18.09), Taijuan Walker (19.08) and Noah Syndergaard (22.07) but ahead of Kevin Gausman (23.03), Jameson Taillon (24.09), Gregory Polanco (24.11), Tommy La Stella (25.03), Oscar Taveras (25.04), Byron Buxton (26.03) and Eddie Butler (27.09).

So here is my final roster with draft slots in parenthesis. I am glad to answer any questions here or in the Forums.

C – Carlos Santana (5.02)

C – Russell Martin (15.02)

1B – Mark Trumbo (4.14)

3B – Miguel Cabrera (1.02)

CI – Adam Lind (19.02)

2B – Jose Altuve (6.14)

SS – Jimmy Rollins (14.14)

MI – Martin Prado (10.14)

OF – Carlos Gomez (2.14)

OF – Khris Davis (8.14)

OF – Adam Eaton (13.02)

OF – Josh Reddick (17.02)

OF – Michael Brantley (20.14)

UT – Javier Baez (22.14) to be replaced with either Owings or Shuck or FA

SP – Jose Fernandez (3.02)

SP – Anibal Sanchez (7.02)

SP – Hyun-Jin Ryu (9.02)

SP – Jered Weaver (11.02)

SP – Wade Miley (18.14)

SP – Nathan Eovaldi (21.02)

SP – Kris Medlen (23.02)

CL – Casey Janssen (12.14)

CL – LaTroy Hawkins (16.14)

R1 – Chris Owings (24.14)

R2 – J.B. Shuck (25.02)

R3 – Tanner Scheppers (26.14)

R4 – Andy Dirks (27.02)

Last Updated on Friday, 14 March 2014 11:09
 
Hindsight is Not Always 20-20 PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Thursday, 06 March 2014 00:00

Last Saturday night, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality – LABR convened for its 23rd auction draft. Hosted by USA Today and run by Steve Gardner, the conclave of writers and analysts serves as one of the first and most visible barometers of redraft auctions for AL and NL players.

I had two plans, although Plan A, buying Mike Trout for $40 or less, was not very likely. These auction tend to be very oversold early on the better players. So I quickly reverted to Plan B after Trout, the fifth player nominated, went for $45. That would be a severe spread the risk approach. I allotted $90 for my nine pitchers - $20 (always a +/- target) for the first three, two starters and one of the better closers, then $10 each for two more pitchers, either a SP and a lesser closer or two starters, and then ten dollars for the last four pitchers.

On the hitting side, I could get seven Tier 2 or 3 hitters around 20 dollars each and then fill out the other seven hitters for the remaining 30 dollars.

So how did that work out? Well, first here are the players I bought, with auction price in parenthesis, and my quick thoughts on their fantasy prospects for this season.

C – Jason Castro (14) - Finally got a full season of at-bats last year and hit 18 homers while batting .275.

C – Dioner Navarro (7) - I think he will hit 15-20 HR in Toronto’s launching pad and will have a positive batting average.

1B – Mark Teixeira (16) – Only time will tell how far he will come back, but 30+ HR is very likely.

3B – David Freese (12) – Even with mid teen HR output, he could have 80-90 RBI in Angels' lineup.

CI – James Loney (10) – Not exciting but solid double-digit homers with a good average.

2B – Jed Lowrie (15) – 2B/SS eligibility with 15+ HR.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (15) – Only danger to nice bounce back would be early arrival of Francisco Lindor and no trade.

MI – Ryan Goins (2) – Blue Jays starting 2B should have 6-8 HR and SB and 40-50 R/RBI.

OF – Norichika Aoki (19) – Could easily score 100+ runs leading off for Royals.

OF – Carlos Beltran (24) – I think he will hit 30+ in Yankee Stadium.

OF – Avisail Garcia (15) – Looking for breakout in first full season – 15-20 HR likely.

OF – Adam Eaton (17) – Eaton was off to a good start last year before the injury, and leading off for the White Sox every day, he should steal 20+ and score 80+ runs. Also has a little pop.

OF – David DeJesus (2) – A full season could mean 10-10 contributions with decent average.

UT – Anthony Gose (2) – Only non-starter in the lineup but could steal enough bases to make a solid contribution.

 

SP – Jered Weaver (18)

SP – Anibal Sanchez (21)

SP – Jose Quintana (10)

SP – Ricky Nolasco (4)

SP – Hector Santiago (7)

SP - Dylan Bundy (1)

CL – David Robertson (19)

CL – Josh Fields (8)

RP – Luke Gregerson (2)

Reserves – Yangervis Solarte (2B), Bruce Chen (SP), Eduardo Nunez (SS), Matt Lindstrom (RP), Jose Alvarez (SP), Chris Parmelee (1B/OF)

So the roster doesn’t look sexy – it is a red chip team. BUT 13 of 14 hitters are starters. Winning at-bats has long been the principal aim of the “spread the risk” auction strategy. Look at the scrubs on some of the other rosters who will not get anywhere near the at-bats thus chances for Runs or RBI that regular players - even lesser hitters will accumulate.

Only Gose is a projected part-time player for Toronto. Now that could change in two ways. Gose has an option left and Moises Sierra does not, so the Blue Jays could send him down to start the season. On the other hand, neither Melky Cabrera nor Jose Bautista is a picture of health, so there could certainly be more at-bats if Gose is the fourth outfielder on the roster, which he is right now.

But I did address that (as well as MI insurance) with Yangervis Solarte and Eduardo Nunez in the reserve rounds. The Yankees are saying that Nunez will play some third base (more if the Kelly Johnson experiment fails or if Johnson has to play at second base). In addition, the best hitter and most versatile defender so far in spring training for the Yankees has been Yangervis Solarte, a second baseman by minor league stats but who can play third base and has already played in the outfield.

One other thing to consider is the LABR rules for lineups and reserve players. You cannot just bench one of your auction bought starters and sub in a reserve. If a “regular” is not on the DL or sent to the Minors, you would have to drop them to activate a reserve. Reserve players, however, can be moved up and down each week. So two reserve players could effectively rotate based on matchups, and that is one of the reasons I made sure to draft a starting pitcher and a playable reliever in Bruce Chen and Matt Lindstrom. I can put one in the lineup for Dylan Bundy and then flip them back and forth each week – for home starts and matchups for Chen or if Lindstrom is getting save opportunities for the White Sox.

Several other owners did this but some did not. Also having reserve players that are playable is very helpful in trades where it is a way to upgrade another team’s active lineup (or give them the lineup flexibility).

None of that information means I am perfectly happy with my draft. While I was fine with a spread the risk strategy and looking at the AL hitters in tiers thought I could field a competitive team from the less expensive players, I did make one key error. While I like the four outfielders I paid double-digit auction dollars for, I would have been better off to spend a few more dollars for a corner infielder where the pool thins dramatically.

But that would have to have been with a better third baseman because both the Tier 2 first basemen, Eric Hosmer and Albert Pujols, went for several dollars more than we project them to earn. And buying Hosmer, who I like this year at $28, or Pujols, who is questionable for anything close to a full rebound at $29, means there is not profit even if they do better than projected.

I actually bought Freese to be my CI thinking I might be able to get a decent price for Xander Bogaerts, who we project to earn $15. Bogaerts came up two rounds later and went for $19, which prompted me to roster Beltran, who was the next player nominated and in my opinion the best power hitter left, for $24. The alternative at that point would have been to pay more for Josh Donaldson, who I have nowhere near as much confidence in for power numbers in 2014.

I do think there are several hitters who are good bets to earn more than projected value, but we shall see. I also think the pitching is good, especially if either/both Josh Fields closes for more than the first month for the Astros or Dylan Bundy is good when he enters the Orioles rotation – likely mid-season.

Fortunately, the league is not based on projections. Let’s see how the team looks six months down the road.

Last Updated on Friday, 07 March 2014 19:52
 
Not So Average Draft Position PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Wednesday, 19 February 2014 00:00

Well it’s not quite an annual rant but some of you really need to know the truth about ADP.

As in Average Draft Position – and even that is a misnomer. What it really is comes from averaging already drafted spots of players in drafts. BUT the key components are:

1) When were these drafts? How current is the information?

2) What was the league format that was being drafted?

3) Who was in the draft? How many bots? (If that answer is any number other than 0 throw it away)

Number one is I hope, self-explanatory, as is number three.

Number two is probably the most important. The LABR mixed draft that Todd wrote about here is terrific information. Not about where to draft someone in YOUR draft but about what THAT writer or analyst thought about the player pool on THAT particular day.  But does your draft match the same positions or have the same number of players? Nobody drafting in the NFBC or FBPC should view that as more than entertaining information because the formats are totally different – in both the high stakes leagues you have all the draft slots to assemble a starting lineup, you don’t have to have all the specific roster slots filled at the end of 23 rounds. And LABR, like Tout, has very different reserve player rules than the high stakes leagues, and even if it was only one (and I suspect it was several more than that) drafter who purposely waited on a player to make sure they had Reserve status (i.e. can be activated/reserved any week as opposed to a drafted player who can only be reserved for DL status), it would skew the positions.

What you really need to know, rather than the number of the draft slots averaged out, is what was the earliest the player was drafted and what was the latest spot the player was drafted (information that NFBC gives its paying customers) with min and max for each player in addition to the averaged number. Yes, all the shows in addition to the weekly NFBC show on SiriusXM are using that information, although we really don’t know the last time the radio folk got the updated numbers. And even then we don’t know if some of the really odd “earliest picks” were the result of some online accident (but there are instances of that).

I am not saying that ADP is not valuable assuming everything is a perfect match for the league you will be drafting in. It does give you “market research.” But remember the most important thing is YOUR rankings and knowing where to draft players. And don’t forget you can ask questions with quick answers in our Platinum Forums.

And the best way to get that is to draft – even if it is just practice. And if you want practice and can’t afford low entry leagues or can’t find leagues that match what you need to practice for, try the Draft Wizard by fantasy pros. You can set the parameters you want and do a whole draft in less than an hour. Still at blazing speeds, slow down and look at the players actually being drafted instead of just making your next pick.

Finally, remember that if all your picks are based on Average Draft Position, you will only have an average team.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 19 February 2014 01:49
 
What a Difference a Year Makes PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Thursday, 13 February 2014 00:00

Especially in fantasy baseball drafts – risers and fallers abound. But I thought we could kill two birds in one column by showing you the rosters I drafted for an NFBC style Draft & Hold league at First Pitch Arizona, which is the first weekend of November.

NOV 2012 for 2013 season – drafting from the #2 hole where I took Mike Trout

C – A.J. Ellis, Rob Brantly, Jason Castro, Ryan Hanigan

1B – Ryan Howard, Kendrys Morales, Chris McGuiness

3B – Manny Machado, Lonnie Chisenhall, Juan Francisco

2B – Jason Kipnis, Robert Andino, Eduardo Nunez

SS – Marco Scutaro, Jurickson Profar, Clint Barmes

OF – Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Desmond Jennings, Josh Reddick, Starling Marte, Aaron Hicks, Avisail Garcia, Russ Canzler, Wil Venable

SP – Yu Darvish, David Price, Kris Medlen, Jeremy Hellickson, Hisashi Iwakuma, Rick Porcello, Danny Duffy, Patrick Corbin, Mark Rogers, Erasmo Ramirez, Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults, Robbie Erlin, Martin Perez

RP – Joe Nathan, Tom Wilhelmsen, Glen Perkins, Nate Jones, Vinnie Pestano, Santiago Casilla, Josh Fields, Franklin Morales, Nate Jones, Drew Smyly, Robbie Ross, Sean Doolittle

I started this draft with Trout, Bautista and Price but you can see that an awful lot of later picks bore fruit. I ended up with only the third/fourth best offense with 56.0 points but strangled the pitching categories with 71.5 points and won the league by four points with a total of 127.5. Only Derek Van Riper of Rotowire, who finished 2nd, was also over 100 points – in fact 3rd was 90 points.

For benchmarks, here were my totals and points in each category:

Batting Average: .2693 (11)

Runs: 987 (14, 60 behind 1st)

Home Runs: 232 (10)

Runs Batted In: 869 (8)

Stolen Bases: 177 (13)

Earned Run Average: 3.295 (15)

Wins: 101 (14, one win behind 1st)

WHIP: 1.160 (15)

Strikeouts: 1357 (15)

Saves: 96 (12.5)

Now let’s see how my team ended up this year (again drafting the first 23 players in November and the rest online in January). I drew the first spot and picked the same player.

NOV 2013 for 2014 season

C – Wilson Ramos, Evan Gattis (C/OF), Yan Gomes (C/1B), Josmil Pinto

1B – Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Napoli

3B – Chase Headley, Juan Francisco (1B/3B)

2B – Daniel Murphy, Darwin Barney, Ryan Goins

SS – Erick Aybar, Brad Miller, Mike Aviles (2B/3B/SS)

OF – Mike Trout, Carlos Gomez, Wil Myers, J.B. Shuck, Matt Joyce, A.J. Pollock, Brandon Barnes, Skip Schumaker (2B/OF), Jose Tabata, Kyle Parker

UT – Garrett Jones (1B/OF)

SP – Jose Fernandez, David Price, Alex Cobb, Travis Wood, Tyson Ross, Dan Straily, Carlos Torres, Brett Oberholtzer, Henderson Alvarez, Eric Johnson, Miguel A. Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, Ross Detwiler, Felipe Paulino, Andrew Heaney, Trevor Bauer, David Hale, Rubby De La Rosa

RP – Trevor Rosenthal, Danny Farquhar, Cody Allen, Josh Fields, Brad Ziegler, A.J. Ramos, Mike Dunn

Here is hoping for a repeat.
Last Updated on Thursday, 13 February 2014 09:25
 
Drafting Catchers - What's Your Approach? PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Tuesday, 11 February 2014 00:00

Okay, we are specifically talking about the catchers you would roster in an NFBC 50-round Draft & Hold league. Remember that the 50 players you draft are all you have for the entire 2014 season – there are no free agent pickups.

So which ones do you take and how many do you roster?

If you read “Don’t Get CAUGHT Short” you know my thoughts on the subject. But obviously, some have other opinions. Read the following and then tell me yours.

Here are the rostered catchers from a recent Draft & Hold league:

Team 1 - Brian McCann & John Jaso

Team 2 - Wilson Ramos, Dioner Navarro, A.J. Ellis & Josmil Pinto

Team 3 - Tyler Flowers, Brayan Pena, Steve Clevenger, Steven Vogt, Francisco Cervelli & Jesus Montero

Team 4 - Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz, Kurt Suzuki, Erik Kratz & Jose Molina

Team 5 - Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez, Martin Maldonado & Brett Hayes

Team 6 - Jason Castro, Evan Gattis, Russell Martin, Jose Lobaton & Ryan Doumit

Team 7 - A.J. Pierzynski, Travis D'Arnaud, Ryan Hanigan & Ryan Lavarnway

Team 8 - Jarrod Saltalamacchia, J.P. Arencibia & Wil Nieves

Team 9 - Carlos Santana, Welington Castillo, John Buck & George Kottaras

Team 10 - Joe Mauer, Miguel Montero, Bryan Holaday, Anthony Recker & Mike McKenry

Team 11 - Buster Posey, Chris Iannetta, David Ross, Gerald Laird, Hector Sanchez & Tim Federowicz

Team 12 - Matt Wieters, Nick Hundley, Yasmani Grandal & Derek Norris

Team 13 - Alex Avila, Devin Mesoraco, Josh Phegley & Ramon Hernandez

Team 14 - Yan Gomes, Mike Zunino, Hank Conger & Austin Hedges

Team 15 - Wilin Rosario, Geovany Soto, Carlos Corporan & Christian Bethancourt

So which team do you think will get the best hitting contributions from their catchers?

Are there any teams that will not be able to compete all year with their catchers?

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 February 2014 08:40
 
At What Cost? PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Wednesday, 05 February 2014 00:00

I mentioned in an earlier column that drafting minor league prospects in the NFBC draft and hold leagues was in my opinion largely a waste of a draft pick. Drafters are seduced by the contributions made in previous years by a Mike Trout or Yasiel Puig once they arrived in the major leagues in May or June.

But those are unique players both from a talent perspective but also because there were enough signs – a late-season call-up in 2011 for Trout and blazing spring training for Puig last year.

But for all the other prospects currently being drafted by participants in the leagues, what is the cost to their team?

Let’s take a look at a draft that is almost finished and see whether the prospect pick is worth the draft pick used.

George Springer, OF, HOU - While not regarded as the top minor league prospect (currently #21 on the MLB Top 100 list), Springer is getting drafted well ahead of players higher on prospect lists largely because of a huge year in 2013 when he slugged 37 home runs and had 45 stolen bases at Double-A and Triple-A. But Houston won’t start Springer’s clock until late-May or early-June – the MLB “Super Two” date each season. Springer currently has an NFBC ADP of 185, meaning you would have to take him in the 16th round, in this draft ahead of guys like Brett Lawrie, Jimmy Rollins or Francisco Liriano, all of whom will start contributing to your team on Opening Day.

Oscar Taveras, OF, STL - Taveras is again one of the top-five minor league prospects (currently #3 on MLB Top 100) but has nowhere to play in St. Louis, which currently projects an outfield of Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos and Allen Craig – Craig moving from first base so Matt Adams can play every day. Taveras currently has an ADP of 262, but in the 17th round you could draft Marlon Byrd, D.J. LeMahieu or Corey Kluber, again all contributing stats from day one, while you wait for the Cardinals to need Taveras.

Javier Baez, SS, CHC - Currently #7 on the MLB Top 100 list, Baez has tremendous bat speed and power, with 37 home runs and 111 RBI along with 20 stolen bases at Class-A and Double-A in 2013. In addition to the monetary consideration, Baez is not a great fielder, clearly behind Starlin Castro at shortstop for the Cubs. True, he is a better hitter than what the Cubs will open the season with at third base, but with an ADP of 349 you are passing on Trevor Plouffe, a starting major league player who will hit 20+ home runs.

Byron Buxton, OF, MIN and Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN - Even though Buxton is currently the #1 prospect on the MLB Top 100 list (and virtually every other list) while Sano is at #4, Sano actually has an earlier ADP of 457 to Buxton’s 470, and that is correct in terms of likely playing time in the Majors this year. There is speculation that Sano might even compete for a spot in the Twins’ starting lineup to open the season or at least make a June debut, while no on projects Buxton to be up before September, at the earliest, because Buxton was only in A-ball last season while Sano reached Double-A. Drafting Buxton in the 32nd round would cost you another everyday player at that position, like a Gerardo Parra, for a player we may not see all year. At least by drafting Sano in the 31st round, you are just pushing a reserve pick. But, not only does he have to be called up to justify the player you didn’t draft, he has to be clear of the elbow problems he had last year or face a year recovering from Tommy John surgery.

I didn’t address the few pitchers who are drafted as early as the hitters because there is far more turnover in MLB pitching staffs during a season and the top pitching prospect on the MLB list at #5, Archie Bradley, who will be given a chance to crack the Diamondbacks rotation in March. Still, instead of Bradley, you could get a sure starter or closer at #298 in Bartolo Colon or Nate Jones.

Taijuan Walker, just one spot below Bradley on the Top 100, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Seattle Mariners rotation. Thus his ADP of 224 makes a lot more sense for early drafters.

This is not to say I would not draft a prospect hitter – especially the ones you might think will be up in June, as in the case of Sano and maybe Springer. But remember we have no idea if/when those MLB clubs will decide to promote the players, and it might not be until September. I simply cannot take them when it costs me an everyday player and before I have my starting lineup drafted.

Depth is very important in this format where you will not have access to any free agents, especially the top minor league prospects. But playable depth is far more important than a player you can only hope you will be able to put into your lineup at some point during the season.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 February 2014 10:00
 
Mike Trout's Fantasy Contract PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Sunday, 26 January 2014 00:00

Fantasy baseball players aren’t concerned with what the Angels are eventually going to pay Mike Trout for those in keeper leagues have their own Trout contract problem THIS spring.

In AL-only keeper leagues, Trout was rostered in many leagues as a minor league prospect or farm player in 2010 or 2011. Many fantasy players likely didn’t activate him for his 40 games during the second half of the 2011 season, so the outfielder's contract clock then began in 2012 as $5 or $10 per season contract in most setups.

After Trout's terrific contributions to those fantasy owners in 2012 and 2013, the time for a decision comes this spring:  How long do they lock him up with a long-term contract? The standard for extending a player is adding five dollars for each year he will be contracted past 2014. So if he is currently at $5 as season (as I have him in my AL keeper league) the choices would be:

Keep him at $5 this season and he goes back into the auction pool in 2015.

Add $5 and keep him at $10 for 2014 and 2015.

Add $10 and keep him at $15 for 2014, 2015, and 2016.

Add $15 dollars and keep him at $20 for 2014 through 2017.

Add $20 dollars and keep him at $25 for 2014 through 2018.

Add even more five dollar increments and keep him for much longer.

Sure, we all want to own Trout for the foreseeable future but unlike MLB, our game places a salary cap on our teams, making us examine the efficacy of long-term contracts.

So what fits your team?

I don’t see too many examples of this, but if you had a team with only a clear window to win this year – perhaps with several key expiring contracts – you might not be able to spend too many dollars on Trout and just keep him at $5. The good thing about this approach, aside from a tremendous profit this year, would be that if for some reason you weren’t going to win your league, you could get a huge return from the teams contending for your league championship. If you had that “win now” team and could spend the $10, and then if injuries or unexpected poor performance from your expiring players were to happen, you could trade them instead and still have a nice $10 Trout next season.

So what is the value (profit if you will) of Trout at differing contract levels? What is your maximum return on a long-term contract?

First, we need to look at how much Trout has earned in his first two full seasons and what we project him to earn in 2014. In AL-only leagues, Trout earned $47 in 5x5 keeper leagues ($48 in 4x4). He then earned $45 in 2013. Mastersball projections for 2014 have him earning $38 (likely based on a lower batting average...after all he dropped from .326 to .323 last year). But we have to project for several future seasons to get contract values, so I am going to value him at a flat $40 for the next five years. Even if his batting average is lower, maybe something else is higher and he maintains value of $40 or more.

Okay, let’s go back to the contract options and see what the net profits are at a current five dollar salary with five dollars for each additional year you extend him (If you are at $10 now or add ten dollars per year you can change these scenarios with your numbers).

Keep him at $5 this year – Earn $35.

Add one year so $10 this year and next – Earn $30+30 = $60.

Add two years so $15 contract – Earn $25+25+25 = $75.

Add three years so $20 contract - Earn $20+20+20+20 = $80.

Add four years so $25 contract – Earn $15+15+15+15+15 = $75.

Add five years so $30 contract – Earn $10+10+10+10+10+10 = $60.

So while having him for the next five years is as much profit as a three-year deal, the maximum profit is to sign him to a four-year contract – three additional years, so $20 in 2014 through 2017 and make a 20 dollar profit on him each year.

My Mike Trout will be on my Great American Rotisseleague roster as $20C17, at our auction on April 1 adding three seasons to his current 5D12.

Your mileage may vary.

 

Last Updated on Sunday, 26 January 2014 12:31
 
Don't Get CAUGHT Short PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Saturday, 11 January 2014 00:00

It is the time of the year when many fantasy baseball players are drafting “draft and hold” teams in various competitions.

As the name suggests better than the “Draftmasters” or “Draft Experts” handles, these are larger (usually 50-player) rosters where there are no free agents added throughout the upcoming season.

So all you have to set your lineup each period are the players you drafted. That should mean that you have an appropriate number of backups at each position or even better players with multiple position eligibility that can be moved around when needed.

In my experience (having won several of these leagues), one of the key positions that is usually under drafted is the Catcher position. We know that this position is shorter on rotisserie contributors to start with, especially when most of these leagues start two backstops. But in addition, injuries, even minor ones, could see you collecting zeroes in the counting stats unless you roster is built with this in mind.

On a typical 50-man roster, I want to draft four catchers to try and ensure that doesn’t happen to my team. This year, players are lucky that there are a couple of playable catchers who qualify at another position, so Evan Gattis (C/OF) and Yan Gomes (C/1B) and even backups like Ryan Doumit (C/OF) or reaching further, Chris Hermann (C/OF) should be rostered perhaps a round or two before you think they fit.

In a current D&H competition where we drafted the first 23 players in early November and are completing the 50-man rosters online, I waited until the 12/13 turn to take my first catcher but took both Wilson Ramos and Gattis. In Round 16, I drafted Gomes. We are now in Round 27 where I selected Josmil Pinto with the first pick of the round. You may think I didn’t need him but I think the teams with Matt Wieters and J.P. Arencibia or Carlos Santana and Hank Conger, to say nothing of the teams with only Joe Mauer or Stephen Vogt at this point, are going to lose whatever chances they might have had with their shortcomings at the catcher position.

Last Updated on Saturday, 11 January 2014 10:58
 
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>

Page 1 of 12
sex izle hd film izle