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Downloadby Perry Van Hook
On Tuesday night, March 8 while we hoped for word on an agreement on a new CBA for baseball, 15 touts gathered online to compete in the Mixed Draft League. This is a 5X5 league with On Base Percentage instead of batting average. We would draft 23 starters and six reserves over the three plus hours of competition.
And if the other drafters felt as much like a ping pong ball as I did, I wouldn’t be surprised. There are a lot of good drafters in the league and when you had to decide on your pick, you could in many rounds be assured that someone would take the player you didn’t draft.
Let’s start with the first round. Here are the participants and their first-round picks:
So, who should I draft from the 10th spot? I had thought my choice would be either Trout or Bo Bichette or one of the top two starting pitchers – now Corbin Burnes with Cole off the board. But that assumed that someone would have already take Shohei Ohtani (the hitter, Tout uses both Ohtani the DH and Ohtani the pitcher). As much as I like Bichette in an OBP league, I chose Ohtani for the upside in his HR/SB potential. And or the record I know some don’t like tying up the UT slot so early in the draft and I might agree if Ohtani was just a power guy. But he isn’t – the stolen bases with the power are huge. And minimal but there is a non-zero chance that he gets five games in the outfield and can then be moved if necessary.
1.10 Perry Van Hook Shohei Ohtani, UT, LAA
1.11 Rudy Gamble Freddie Freeman, 1B, FA
1.12 Mike Gianelli Corbin Burnes, P, MLW
1.13 A.J. Mass Mookie Betts, OF, LAD
1.14 Jeff Barton Walker Buehler, P, LAD
1.15 Anthony Perri Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU
Interesting. All of you will have a different view and that is a fun part of the game. Now who would be available at 2.06? I couldn’t believe that it was on the drafter in front of me and Bichette was still available – but no Rudy would take him, but I still think about what a great start that would have been. Still my choice was the anchor for my pitching staff or adding a second strong hitter and the best available were Yordan Alvarez or Aaron Judge. I took Brandon Woodruff.
In the third round the choice become more diverse but I took Xander Bogaerts over Max Muncy because there is a decent chance that Muncy is not fully recovered from his injury on whatever would become opening day. In addition, there were two of the top shortstops already drafted and more would be taken before my next pick.
Sure enough, both Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story were taken on the turn and second baseman Jonathan India by Gamble at 4.05 – Rudy is going to owe me a cold one for his second and fourth round snipes plus whatever he does later. I took Tyler O’Neill who blossomed last year and my well be better this year over a second starter, thinking I could get one in the same tier at my next pick. And that was correct as Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, and Max Fried were among the pitchers taken between my selections, but I was just as happy with Giant Ace Logan Webb.
I might well have taken Jose Abreu or Raisel Iglesias who went late fifth/early sixth but had to make another choice and am hoping Anthony Rendon is fully healthy because he will have an excellent OBP and fill my third base slot. But like my fellow drafters we didn’t have our normal information from spring training as well at not knowing which teams some of the remaining free agents will play for.
One of the questions when building a roster in any draft league is where you want to take your first catcher? Many prefer to wait until very late and take two; others want one of the top offensive backstops. Generally, I prefer a middle route to find catchers who won’t hurt my batting average or in this case on base percentage. In this draft the first catcher – Will Smith of the Dodgers went very early – 3.03 and the second, Salvador Perez at 3.14. This was followed by Yasmani Grandal at 5.06 and J.T. Realmuto at 5.07. At 7.10 I could have gone several directions but decided to draft Daulton Varsho as my first catcher. For one thing he should steal 15 plus bases and for another, will spend more time in the outfield than he will risking nicks behind the plate. He should also hit twenty some homer and have a decent OBP.
From the fifth round on, I was considering drafting one of the better closers – there are so few really solid ones this year and so many unsettled bullpens. But as happened many times in this draft, when I had a player in mind or even queued up, they were taken before my next pick. In the eighth round I had just seen Yu Darvish, Shane McClanahan, and Giovanny Gallegos get drafted. As I looked at my draft lists, I decided to take a chance and draft top Royals’ prospect Bobby Witt Jr. as my middle infielder hoping that he makes the opening day lineup for KC and give me another strong HR/SB contribution. In case that doesn’t happen, I will draft an extra MI in the reserve rounds.
Time to add another pitcher (some would say past time) and fortunately one of my favorite targets for 2022, the Rays’ Shane Baz was there at 9.10. Baz has a very good arm and we saw a glimpse of his potential last year – in fact as a free agent addition last year he helped me win an AL only league. At this point, while I still needed more pitchers, I felt that my biggest need was to add some very good outfielders if they were available and as luck would have it was able to add Mark Canha, NYM at 10.06 and Trent Grisham, SD at 11.10. Both will contribute double digit HR and SB as well as provide more ballast in OBP before we get to later rounds.
In the 12th round I still did not have a closer and added Corey Knebel hoping he is the man for the Phillies bullpen. In the next round I wanted to address both second base and my second catcher if the right player was available. With Keibert Ruiz and Mitch Garver drafted in the twelfth, and Adley Rutschman in the thirteenth round I picked Omar Narvaez at 13.10. He will have a good OBP and should hit around fifteen home runs. I was pleasantly surprised (for a change) that my top 2B target at this point, the Brewers’ Kolten Wong was there for me at 14.06.
In the 15th I added another Tampa starter with Drew Rasmussen. Another pitcher who pitched very well after being traded from the NL to the AL and helped me last season and I think along with Baz, pitchers who are good enough that the Rays will let them go longer into games than they have when they had lesser hurlers who were starting games.
If you are asking where my first baseman is at this point, I am/was right there too. I had thought that I could grab one I liked as we moved along but Rhys Hoskins went before I could pull the trigger as did Josh Bell (9th) and Brandon Belt (12th). So, in round sixteen I drafted Baltimore’s Trey Mancini hoping for twenty plus homers and a good OBP. There is another one who I am hoping will be there later for a corner infield slot who is better than all but one of the remaining third basemen. At this point I need more pitchers, the corner, and a pair of fly chasers.
At 17.10 I took Aaron Ashby, MLW over German Marquez or Steven Matz. In the eighteenth round I took another chance on upside by draft Mariner prospect Julio Rodriguez. I am sure Rodriguez will be in the Mariners’ outfield at some point in 2022, but I don’t know when. I would rather it be opening day, but if it is later in the season, that will be a nice boost from my reserves and save a lot of FAAB units. The next turn I was able to draft Jesus Aguilar as my corner (Jeimer Candelario having been picked earlier). Aguilar seems firmly in the Marlins plans for this year and will be helped with the NL having the DH slot for additional at bats to boost his home runs.
I drafted Cal Quantrill (CLE) at 20.06 thinking he will do well in his first full season as a starting pitcher over the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin (who I think is a slightly more talented pitcher but not as likely to get as many starts this year). In the 21st round I grabbed my final starting outfielder, the Cubs presumed center fielder Rafael Ortega who should have double digit HR and SB. Back to both pitching and the Guardians in round twenty-two as I took Zach Plesac, hoping he can rebound. Really at this point the pitching selections are dart throws that may be based more on preferences than projections. My pick at 23.10 was Nico Hoerner, my replacement for Witt if necessary and having lost both Nick Madrigal and Jeremy Pena to other drafters.
The balance of the draft is one pitcher and reserves, so I will list them quickly
24.06 Dinelson Lamet – a great arm when healthy – not sure if he is a starter or reliever for the Padres
25.10 Roansy Contreras – showed his potential with the Pirates late last year and should be in rotation
26.06 Kyle Muller – fighting for rotation spot in Atlanta
27.10 Jarren Duran – struggled in debut, but has speed and is potential fill in for Rodriguez
28.06 Dustin May – out for first half of year but what a mid/late season return from IL slot
29.10 Daniel Hudson – very good arm and who knows how the Dodger’s bullpen will sort out
I must tell you that after three plus hours of mostly tough choices and feeling like I was beaten to several players I wasn’t in a great mood. Yet I think this team has the potential to contend. It may well require Witt and Rodriguez to be good right away, but they are my top-rated prospects this year. And I need some of the pitchers to be as good as I think they can be. But the offense on Todd’s projections is in good shape in all five categories – very strong in OBP, SB, and Runs and still top third in HR and RBI.
Here is the full squad by positions with (rd) drafted:
C – Daulton Varsho (7) and Omar Narvaez (13)
CI – Trey Mancini (16), Anthony Rendon (6), and Jesus Aguilar (19)
MI – Kolten Wong (14), Xander Bogaerts (3), and Bobby Witt Jr. (8)
OF – Tyler O’Neill (4), Mark Canha (10), Trent Grisham (11), Julio Rodriguez (18), and Rafael Ortega (21)
UT – Shohei Ohtani (1)
SP – Brandon Woodruff (2), Logan Webb (5), Shane Baz (9), Drew Rasmussen (15), Aaron Ashby (17), Cal Quantrill (20), Zack Plesac (22)
RP – Corey Knebel (12) and Dinelson Lamet (24)
Reserves – Nico Hoerner (23), Roansy Contreras (25), Kyle Muller (26), Jarren Duran (27), Dustin May (28), and Daniel Hudson (29)
Tuesday evening, I was drafting for Tout’s mixed draft league. This is a 15 team league with On Base Percentage (OBP) instead of batting average. This is important as several hitters you might be wary of in the NFBC or other mixed team leagues that use the standard average are useful in this format.
Sitting the 7th position – the draft slots are done via choice of the winner and then down the standings – I could easily see some excellent hitters with which to start my offense. The question would be WHO would fall to me. Would either deGrom or Cole be selected right away improving my choice? And once we got to the back half of the first round and beyond, just how many pitchers would be taken early?
I was guessing quite a few. Drafters these day are in a big hurry to draft their number one starter, and some are even trying for “pocket aces”. So, as I proceeded in my draft prep and player rankings on Fantrax I wondered about a counter approach. If I was willing to forego choosing any of the pitchers in the top few tiers (roughly two, then four, then nine) how much of a first-rate base of OBP and counting stats could I amass if I tried to roster five or six rounds of top hitters?
Okay as the lights go on the top outfielders fly off the board – Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto go 1-2, then Fernando Tatis Jr., followed by Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Christian Yelich and there I am. As much as I love what Freddie Freeman brings to the stat table, I chose Trea Turner for good numbers in all categories with a strong start in stolen bases. The run of pitchers would start right behind me when Scott White surprised taking Shane Bieber over the usual two suspects. In all, four starters taken in the back half of the first round and another four before I was up in the second. Ray Murphy who had take Jose Ramirez doubled up in the second with Anthony Rendon who I had thought would make it back. But I added another top hitter from the hot corner in Alex Bregman who brings a .390+ OBP and 100+ R and RBI.
Into the third round, there were four more starters taken along with one in the third, but I stuck to the plan and rostered George Springer who could easily exceed projections as his tour of friendly home ballparks could include Dunedin and Buffalo before the Blue Jays land in Toronto. At 4.09 I took my second outfielder hoping for a 20-20 season from Padre center fielder Trent Grisham. I was also betting that the ADP of one of my hoped for players would hold.
Maybe the fact that Max Muncy’s OBP is more than 100 points higher than his sub .250 batting average allowed that to happen but especially with his 1B/2B/3B eligibility I was glad to make him my fifth selection. The site has him primarily as a first baseman so that is where he was on my current roster but the second base pool thinning earlier than first, I thought I would likely move him to second later in the draft.
Yes, I was still without a pitcher but the rest of the drafters had slowed the pitcher run and I was ready to switch tracks in the sixth. Still, I had the base I had hoped for as the three infielders and two outfielders are projected here at Mastersball for 149 homers, 438 RBI, 513 runs, and 73 steals with a .370+ OBP. Quite a nice start – now could I catch up in the arms race.
In rounds 6-8 I selected Hyun-jin Ryu, Zack Greinke, and Julio Urias. Nobody knows now how many innings most pitchers will throw in going from sixty games last year to a full (hopefully) season this year but I think Ryu and Greinke will be close to their usual workloads. Urias is more of a question mark as the young pitchers are the most likely to be held in check by their respective clubs. Still his performance in the World Series has given him and the Dodgers’ pitching coaches a load of confidence which he displayed in his first spring training start.
Through the middle of the draft, I added players at various positions in a pretty normal fashion, not feeling at all like I needed to make up ground in any area. Here are the “starters” as drafted:
C – Austin Nola (12.09) and Alejandro Kirk (21.07)
CI – Carlos Santana (9.07), Bregman (2.09), and Trey Mancini (13.07)
MI – Muncy (5.07), Turner (1.07), and Willi Castro (17.07)
OF – Springer (3.07), Grisham (4.09), Ian Happ (10.09), Austin Hays (20.09), and Alex Dickerson (22.09)
UT – Tyler O’Neill (24.09)
SP – Ryu (6.09), Greinke (7.07), Urias (8.09), Domingo German (15.07), David Price (16.09), and Mike Minor (18.09)
RP – Taylor Rogers (11.07), Joakim Soria (14.09), and Adam Ottavino (19.07)
In the reserves I did go heavier on pitchers to guard against injuries or changes and also because we will have the first FAAB run before Opening Day, so I can adjust anything as needed. We also have IL slots so if anyone has a short term injury, I can put them there and add a replacement.
Reserves – Adam Wainwight (23.07), Kike Hernandez (25.07), Bryan Garcia (26.09), Tyler Stephenson (27.07), J.A. Happ (28.09, and Luis Garcia, HOU (29.07).
And a few words about those players. I can’t believe Kike fell that far as playing almost every day he should compile more than we have seen as a Dodger in recent years. Garcia gives me an extra closer, especially valuable for the first short week when not all the starting pitchers may have a start. Stephenson might win the job for the Reds or be in a platoon but he has power and like Kirk a strong OBP. I think Happ’s numbers will be better out of the Bronx and Garcia might be next in line for the Astros rotation.
Always glad to answer your draft questions in the Platinum Forum. Other than that, we will just have to see how this team competes and how I can continue to improve the pitching staff.
One of my longtime “home” leagues has been a 15 to 18 team, mixed league auction, based in Los Angeles. Like many other leagues, the annual live auction was a victim of social distancing, courtesy of COVID-19.
Our commissioner for over 30 years, while hoping he can eventually get the league together for the live draft once MLB has a firm start date, floated the idea of doing an online auction on Sunday, April 5. While the question met with tepid responses from some, many of us, confined to quarters and jonesing for baseball quickly signed up and eventually we had 15 teams ready to draft from home and enjoy a rare day with fellow fantasy baseball players.
It was a win all the way around. We enjoyed the auction and banter even if we couldn’t see each other and the commissioner got his first experience running an auction online, something he hopes doesn’t have to do for the elder mixed league and an NL only league he also runs. If we can’t draft in person for an abbreviated MLB season, we are all hoping for, he now knows how to conduct the draft and many of his leaguemates have at least one online auction under their belt.
So last Sunday started with a practice round, every team getting one nomination and everyone learning to navigate the site. Then the bell rang and the surprise nomination of J.T. Realmuto went for $20 before we got to the usual suspects. Remember that auction prices for every league are unique. Much like ADP if you use AAV you really don’t know how close the many leagues that make up the figures are to the specific league you are ready to draft, or how old some of those figures are. In this league the top hitters, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Trout both went for $48. Christian Yelich was just a few dollars back at $45 while Trea Turner was the only other player in the 40s at $41. The top pitchers were Jacob deGrom at $36 followed by Gerritt Cole at $38. That doesn’t mean that the prices in this league were lower than in other leagues, the next wave of both hitters and pitchers went at prices above Todd’s projected earnings. The total for the first round was $510, an average of $34 per player despite two catchers nominated, while the second round saw $424 spent, an average just above $28 despite someone sneaking Anthony Santander through for a dollar.
Suffice it to say that after the first two rounds of nominations I had no players on my roster and a few picks into the third round I was the only team that still had $260 to spend. I can’t give you the prices on every single player in this article, but I am more than glad to answer with the prices paid on specific players in the Subscriber Forum.
And I know you are all dying to see my team but let’s first extract some auction pointers, both general and from this draft and my prep for it.
I mentioned the hitting/pitching split I was using. This was in conjunction with an approach to my tiered ranking sheet that I did not mention above. Once you have the sheets set up and have your lines below the presumed players who will be drafted at each position it Is imperative that you go through the hitters below that line by position to see if there are players you would be comfortable taking in the end game for a dollar so that you can have spent more on key players earlier in the draft. Here are some of the players that I had in that group:
C – James McCann & Tony Wolters
1B – Miguel Cabrera & Yandy Diaz
3B – Diaz & Maikel Franco
2B – Robinson Cano & Freddy Galvis
SS – Galvis & Willy Adames
Only Miggy ended up on my roster for a dollar and I backed him up with a higher ranked corner in the reserves. Most of the others were rostered in the reserve rounds.
Back to the auction. My first purchase was Keston Hiura for $23 in the third round. Second base is a tough position this year and I was glad to get one of the top tier for a reasonable price. Plus, I think Hiura will exceed Todd’s projections.
I was now going to go on a buying spree adding fourteen players for $223 over the next eight rounds. Part of the reason was that prices had dropped to match or be less than projected values The other thing to remember is that is you wait for several rounds to buy your first player and have the most buying power, you need to use it while you have it lest you are back to competing with other teams who have the same amount or more which incites bidding wars on players not worth the higher prices.
When the eleventh round of the auction ended, I had $14 left for eight players – four hitters and four pitchers. That puts one in a tough position to get to the end game. Nominate a player you would be okay rostering for a dollar and hoping you don’t have to react for a player you really need or want. Sometimes to do that you have to nominate players you would love to have but realize you don’t have to dollars left to get them so force your opponents to spend their dollars. It seemed like forever to get through rounds 12-13-14-15-16 without spending. Probably just an hour but felt longer. At that point there was one starter I hoped to land, the Dodgers Alex Wood. There were also two minor leaguers I had my eye on for both their positions and skills – White Sox 2B Nick Madrigal and Blue Jays SP Nate Pearson. It was unlikely I could get either of them or other top prospects in the reserve draft as I would have the last pick in the first round. Neither player would likely have been on Opening Days roster in March … but in late May or June? Both are possible. So how would this play out? And I still needed a CI, OF, and UT besides the MI and four more pitchers.
Now how to get through the final seven rounds.
At 17.15 I nominated Dodger Pitcher Dustin May for a dollar – after all this is mostly an LA crowd.
Crickets
A friend of mine says “Nice one Perry” in the chat box.
I said Thanks but that wasn’t my plan.
Don’t get me wrong – I like May and have him on a couple of other teams. But I wanted some teams to bid on him and leave me the dollar and the roster spot.
But fortunes change quickly – late in the 18th round a friend of mine put up Nate Pearson for $2 his max bid and my quick $3 won the bid and shortly thereafter early in the 19th Madrigal was nominated for a dollar and my $2 was quick and a winner. At my turn at the end of the round I decided now was the time to make my play for Alex Wood. With $7 for four players, my max was $4 and I put it all on Wood and won again. Now I could finish out the team with three one dollar players (Miguel Cabrera, Trent Grisham, and Tony Watson) and almost everyone was down to a dollar per player.
So here is the team I bought in the auction, and the reserves I drafted.
C – Yadier Molina ($5) and Sean Murphy ($5)
1B – Carlos Santana ($11)
3B – Anthony Rendon ($32)
CI – Miguel Cabrera ($1)
2B – Keston Hiura ($23)
SS – Corey Seager ($12)
MI – Nick Madrigal $2)
OF – Luis Robert ($19)
OF – Tommy Pham ($19)
OF – Jeff McNeil ($15)
OF – Michael Brantley ($10)
OF – Trent Grisham ($1)
UT – Nick Solak ($1)
P – Trevor Bauer ($17)
P – Aaron Nola ($23)
P – Nick Anderson ($13)
P – Brandon Woodruff ($22)
P – Mike Soroka ($19)
P – Dustin May ($1)
P – Nate Pearson ($3)
P - Alex Wood ($4)
P – Tony Watson ($1)
Reserves Rounds
24-15 Austin Riley, OF
25-01 Tony Gonsolin, P
26-15 Adam Frazier, 2B
27-01 Eric Thames, 1B
28-15 Blake Treinen, P
29-01 Brusdar Graterol, P
Perhaps the one player who stands out from the more moderately priced is Anthony Rendon. While I had budgeted to buy one top hitter (low 30s), I didn’t find the right opportunity in the first three rounds. At the end of the 4th round one nomination presented that challenge. With Nolan Arenado off the board at $35 and Jose Ramirez gone at $33 should I go for Anthony Rendon or hope that Alex Bregman or Rafael Devers would offer a discount later? (they didn’t) As I actually think Rendon is under projected hitting 3rd behind the Angels leadoff hitter and Trout or 4th behind leadoff, Trout and Ohtani, I decided to get him for low 30s and ultimately won at $32. Rendon is a strong four category hitter and I expect 30+HR, 100+R and RBI, and a batting average over .300 thus my paying up for him (slightly).
Again, always glad to answer question about this draft or the players in the Subscriber Forum. Now we just need to flatten the curve of the virus and get the players back on the fields so we can have some live drafts.
The Tout Wars Mixed Draft League was held on Tuesday, March 5 with the draft positions were pre-determined (1st place last year gets first choice of where to pick and then down the standings until all fifteen spots are filled). I did some basic homework and review of last years’ standings.
Once I found out I had the sixth spot in the draft I could go more in depth on how to approach the first few rounds and saw that I would likely have the choice of either top starting pitcher Max Scherzer or Yankee masher Aaron Judge (tout Wars is an OBP league). But of course, right before the draft Bryce Harper finally had a team and playing all his home games in friendly Citizens Bank Park put him among the choices.
The draft opened as normal with Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Jose Ramirez and then Max Scherzer went at 1.04. So now just the hitting choice and I decided that Judge was the better bet as Harper might need some time to get his swing honed and might feel some pressure in the short term. Judge will likely have a higher OBP and more home runs so he was my pick at 1.06.
Now what would be left at 2.10? I would take one of the top starting pitchers if they were still in play – maybe double aces in the unlikely event another of my top tier was still on the board at my third round pick. Yes, I noticed that Francisco Lindor was still on the board but if I took Lindor, Aaron Nola would not be available on the flip side, so I happily drafted him at 2.10. Good news for Adam Ronis as he got to roster Lindor at 2.14 between picks of Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer.
The third round started Juan Soto, Carlos Carrasco, Anthony Rizzo, Walker Buehler and Cody Bellinger, so while I had my eye on Charlie Blackmon he was pushed down the board by my pick of Noah Syndergaard at 3.06. A great start and now another long wait for my next pick.
This was an easier choice as despite the number of shortstops already drafted I thought I could wait on the one on the top of my list or comfortably go a few tiers down on that position. Thus I took Tommy Pham who could score a lot of runs for the Rays and have a good chance for a 20-20 season with a very high OBP.
Daniel Murphy or Gleyber Torres might have been good second base choices had they lasted but I was glad to add Phillies shortstop Jean Segura who will help in R/SB/OBP while having double digit homers even if a little light in RBI.
In round six I might have been swayed by the lack of top first basemen still left, but still EE and the parrot have made thirty two to forty two round trips over the past seven seasons so 6.10 was Edwin Encarnacion for my squad. Round seven was one of those where someone in the middle of the draft is the beneficiary of value falling from one of the ends but I was delighted to select Mitch Haniger at 7.06.
Second and third base were thinning and I chose to draft Dodger favorite Justin Turner to be my third sacker at 8.10 over Robinson Cano who went a few picks later. The ninth round started with several pitcher picks but there two starting pitchers from my second tier still looking for work and with Folty’s arm concerns I drafted Kyle Hendricks at 9.06
I thought both the tenth and eleventh rounds saw some players drop from previous drafts I have done and was happy to add Mets’ outfielder Brandon Nimmo in the tenth and Japanese pitching star Yusei Kikuchi in the eleventh.
I was pretty happy with the first half of my team – sure sniped a few times, but still happy with the players I had and the state of the construction of the roster, although I would have to address 2B and I was light in steals. Yeah I know I didn’t have any saves yet but I think if you look at the draft board https://draft.shgn.com/nfc/plain/dp/473/grid you will see that as usual many rushed the net on saves when they could have done better by waiting. True the stud closers will have more strikeouts and perhaps better ratios but better starters can manicure that more effectively than the relievers can manicure the starters’ numbers.
Here are the rest of my selections:
12.10 Francisco Cervelli – some home runs but more importantly a plus OBP
13.06 Will Smith – speaking of saves
14.10 Hunter Strickland – felt so nice I did it twice
15.06 Asdrubal Cabrera – filling my second base slot for now but also giving me an infield chess piece
16.10 Chris Taylor – qualifies at SS and OF now and will add second base (MI for this team now)
17.06 Alex Reyes – hopefully he is in the Cardinals rotation AND can stay healthy for a change
18.10 Justin Bour – undervalued in many drafts but will deliver the homers
19.06 Drew Steckenrider – getting some cheap closers on draft day means less money spent in FAAB
20.10 Christin Stewart – 20 hr potential for the Tigers left fielder and my fifth of
21.06 Corbin Burnes – may have been a product of my computer freezing but I still love the arm
22.10 Omar Narvaez – strong OBP for a second catcher and will deliver more home runs than projected
23.06 Chase Anderson – I will bet on improved numbers all the way around for the Brewer hurler
24.10 Lourdes Gurriel – 2B/SS who could well be the Blue Jays leadoff hitter this year
25.06 Kendrys Morales – twenty plus hr for my UT slot (if not switched out for steals)
26.10 C.C. Sabathia – good win potential and better numbers last year than you think
27.06 Keon Braxton – attempt to boost my steals from poor to mid pack
28.10 Sergio Romo – I don’t think Steckenrider fails but just in case
29.06 Keynan Middleton – yes will start on the DL which I can replace before stateside opening day (a gambit not used as much as it should be) and he might be the Angels closer in the second half of the year
Impossible at least for me to track numbers in a draft with a one minute clock and by now I have a pretty good feel for most all players and their categorical contributions. But after the draft I put the squad through START and feel very good about HR/R/RBI/OBP. Yes still light in steals but can adjust via trade or free agent additions. Pitching always needs work but the base is fine and you add wins throughout the season. And a little luck never hurts.
In early March I participated in the Tout Wars online draft league: a fifteen-team league that uses on base percentage (OBP) instead of batting average, but otherwise is the standard 5X5 categories employing twenty three starting players.
But I made my first pick before that as the league lets the players have their preference of draft slot based on last year’s standings. So Adam Ronis who won the league last year had first choice and picked 1.03 (presumably because he didn’t care which one of Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, or Bryce Harper he would get and he would get an earlier second round pick). That allowed Rudy Gamble, second last year to draft first, and Patrick Mayo, a transfer from the TOUT X league to draft second.
I finished 4th in this league last year but my preference card was 3-2-1-8 so I will draft eighth. Sure I would have started with one of those three players, but after those three and Clayton Kershaw, there is a pack of players that are pretty close in terms of projected value, and frankly I thought I might be able to get either Anthony Rizzo or Andrew McCutchen at 1.08 and then have a much earlier second round pick. But there are other reasons I like to draft in the middle of the order (assuming I am comfortable with the first round players). First I won’t wait as long between picks each round. Second I find that especially in industry leagues, drafters may be reaching some for either a player they really like who they know won’t be available with their next pick. That means there is often some players who on my rankings fall below where I would draft them or think they should go.
I wanted my first few hitters to have a very high OBP and I wanted to choose hitters for the most part that would have double digit HR and SB. Obviously you can’t do that with catchers but I wanted to try and avoid the one trick stolen base ponies – especially in the outfield. I would take two very strong hitter in the first two rounds, likely taking my first starting pitcher in the third, but might delay until the fourth if there was a compelling hitter there and the first pitcher run was not well under way.
So how did that work out?
Well I did get McCutchen at 1.08 – really wanted to start with Rizzo but he went fifth. In the second round I took Justin Upton – strong OBP (100 points higher than his BAvg), with 25+ HR and double digit SB. (Perhaps I should have taken Jose Abreu for a few more homers and stronger R/RBI, sacrificing the steals and some OBP)
With four SP taken in front of me in round three (Kershaw going at 1.07 and Scherzer at 2.15) I decided to jump in and take Corey Kluber for the strong strikeouts and good ratios and the hope the Indians can get him some more wins this year.
It didn’t cost me in hitting as my projected third round hitter was still there at 4.08 so Brian Dozier who certainly fit the HR/SB plan was my pick, despite a lower OBP which I think will be offset with 100+ runs. Unfortunately there was a heavy run on first basemen with eleven taken in the first four and a half rounds. I didn’t make a panic pick there – Byung-Ho Park has the projected numbers and the power I needed but I would have preferred to take him later but he was my pick at 5.08
The drafters in this league were doing a very good job, pretty much across the boards so there were going to be compromises made and educated guesses as to when to fill each hole. And it was a very fast draft which didn’t give much time for sorting your queue or options. I won’t give every pick a paragraph but list the round numbers after each player selected, so here is the drafted starters and then reserves.
C – Welington Castillo (13) – will have close to twenty bombs
C – Francisco Cervelli (16) – strong OBP with at least a home run per month
1B – Byung-Ho Park (5) – looking for 30+ home runs and several steals
3B – Jung-Ho Kang (10) – should be a very solid contributor but will he miss time?
CI – Justin Bour (19) – twenty plus home runs
2B – Brian Dozier (4) – strong HR/SB combo who will score 100+ runs
SS – Ketel Marte (12) – leading off for Mariners and should be close to 30 steals
MI – Jonathan Villar (18) – 30+ steals, handful of HR and see reserves
OF – Andrew McCutchen (1) – OBP stud with HR/SB combo and strong RBI
OF – Justin Upton (2) – Comerica Field and Tiger lineup may increase projected numbers
OF – Joc Pederson (7) – much stronger OBP than BAvg with upside beyond 20/20
OF – Curtis Granderson (9) – another OBP choice plus 20+/10+
OF – Stephen Souza (14) – 20/20 with good OBP
UT – Mike Napoli (23) – again very good OBP with 15-20 HR in fungible position on roster
Reserves
Orlando Arcia (24) SS– Top Milwaukee prospect - very good hitter who should arrive in June
Martin Prado (27) 3B – In case I need an April replacement for Kang
Lonnie Chisenhall (29) 3B/OF – can cover 3B and OF and streaky power hitter
SP – Corey Kluber (3) – 240+ strikeouts and good ratios
SP – Johnny Cueto (6) – Great home park for Cueto
SP – Drew Smyly (11) – great ratios over lesser strikeouts – last tier 4 pitcher on the board
SP – Jaime Garcia (17) – pitches very well IF he can stay on the field
SP – Zack Wheeler (21) – headed for a DL slot in TOUT rules
SP – Lucas Giolito (22) – highest upside of all the prospect pitchers and on better team when he arrives
CL – Jonathan Papelbon (8) – excellent tier 2 closer on winning club
CL– Santiago Casilla (15) – Giants should win a lot of games this year – hopefully he is closing all year
CL – J.J. Hoover (20) – has the job for now in Cincinnati
Reserves
Tanner Roark (25) – replacing Giolito
Adam Conley (26) – okay to take starters on Marlin – they play a lot of games versus PHL and ATL
Bartolo Colon (28) – holding the place for Wheeler and still effective
Not sure my OBP held up and weaker than I would like in RBI, but very solid HR/R/SB
Strong in Sv, ERA, and WHIP and wins will come with steaming but the low strikeouts could be a problem if Giolito not up early and Wheeler is delayed.
With Arcia and Giolito likely manning two of my bench spots it does mean I am going to work with just four reserve spots, but I am fine with that for the upside these players should bring my team.
I am always glad to answer any questions here or in the Forums and you can follow along all year as Mastersball has very strong TOUT coverage.