Mastersball, fantasy baseball, scouting, analysis, projections

Today’s edition of Under the Microscope is dedicated to my XFL squad, currently embroiled in a 5-way battle for the top spot, a race that is destined to go down to the wire and fly in the face of those that suggest “roto is boring.”

The past couple of weeks, we have looked at some first round disappointments.  So it makes sense to follow that up with an examination of some players that may vault into the first few rounds based on a stellar 2010 campaign.

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies: We are quick to point out our hits, we should also point out some misses.  Here is what I wrote about Gonzalez in the spring profiles: Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler are similar players, both fan a lot, Gonzalez has more power and a bit less speed.  It is the superior power than nets him more time, at least this season.  Wow.

Gonzalez appears to be a .300-30-30 candidate for the next several years.  And while I buy the 30-30 part, I am skeptical the .300 is automatic.   This is not to say Gonzalez will plummet to .250, just there are some danger signs hidden in his awesome 2010 campaign.

I have read and heard a lot of people quip things like “where are those pointing out CarGo’s low contact rate now.”  Well, I am right here.  At minimum, having a contact rate below 80% puts the player at risk for a bad season.  It is not a guarantee it will happen, but there is a better chance of it occurring than a player with a contact rate above 80%, just ask Matt Kemp.  In addition, Gonzalez is sporting an extremely high BABIP and although he has the speed and power skills to support a mark well above average, it is still a risk he maintains his present .366 level another season.  And finally, perhaps because everything else is going so well for Gonzalez, his already poor walk rate has dropped to a scant 4.7%.

With respect to his power, Gonzales has a HR/FB level a bit higher than he did last season but nothing that is different from normal variation.  This suggests he can sustain a HR/FB in the high teens, translating to 30+ homers.  There is even some upside to this as Gonzalez does not hit a large percentage of fly balls.

Stolen bases, especially in star players with power, are always difficult to predict.  Gonzalez has the speed to swipe 30+ bags but since he has been nicked up a few times this season, there is a chance the Rockies curtail his running in an effort to keep his bat in the lineup.  He will not cease running, I am just suggesting that expecting 30 bags may be optimistic.

Tying it all together, there is no question Gonzalez will be a cornerstone fantasy player.  The chief point I would like to make is there is some risk involved with CarGo.  For those that prefer avoiding risk in an early pick, Gonzalez may not be your cup of tea.  There is batting average risk, stolen base risk and injury risk.  Taking him in the first few rounds limits the profit potential.  It is going to be very, very interesting to follow the career arc of Gonzalez, Kemp and Justin Upton as they all profile similarly.

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees: Here is our take on Cano from the draft kit: Cano's already stellar contact rate improved even more last season, which is good because he is still obstinate about taking a walk.  His high HR total was largely a result of few strikeouts and fewer walks as his HR/FB is league average and he is a ground ball hitter.  With such an excellent contact rate, it would not be too surprising for Cano to alter his approach a tad to get more loft.   Either way, this is a skill set you want, provided it does not cost you a Yankee tax.

DING DING!!!!

Cano has indeed elevated his fly ball percent this season, as well as even upping his HR/FB a tick.  But both are within standard variation, so a little regression next season would not be a shock.  But the important thing is after having performed at this level for 2 seasons, there is a better chance this is his baseline, which is extremely high, especially for a second baseman.

Cano’s contact rate and BABIP are basically the same as last year, but his walk rate is a bit higher, which is positive.  The only stain on Cano’s fantasy resume is he does not run at all.

So the good news is Cano is going to be an excellent bet for something like .310-.320, 25-30 homers with about 100 runs and RBI.  There are not many players that you can feel confident will reach that level.  The bad news is some owners may overvalue scarcity, especially since several middle infield stalwarts such as Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitski, Jose Reyes, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins and Ian Kinsler will be coming off down or injury-riddled seasons.  This may propel Cano up the rankings even higher than his impressive stat line deserves, primarily due to his lack of steals.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Red: So far today, we are one and one when it comes to grading our spring profiles.  Put another in the loss column: "Votto is a bit of a "look at me" player as fantasy enthusiasts are expecting a breakout and are jumping the already high ADP, which effectively takes away any profit potential, unless he runs more than expected.  Don't get me wrong, there is a lot to be excited about, but Votto still fans a bunch and enjoyed a lucky BABIP last season, thus many are expecting an unreasonable batting average."

Well, to be fair, we were right, Votto’s BABIP dropped – from .372 to .359.  He has now earned the label of it being a skill to maintain a stellar BABIP.   As with anyone with a mark this high, there is a lot of downside risk, but he has earned the right to expect an extremely high BABIP.

Looking at his power, Votto has actually hit fewer fly balls, but has stroked at an extremely high HR/FB of 25.9%.  He will be hard pressed to sustain that next season, so it is quite prudent to expect fewer homers.  He will still knock a bunch over the fence, just chop off a handful from this year’s total.

Hidden in Votto’s wonderful season is he is on pace to steal double digit bags for the first time in his career.  This adds some extra value, especially from a first baseman.

If I had to make a guess now, I would put Votto down for .300 -.310 with 30 homers and 10 steals in 2011.  That is quite solid and puts him on a par with Mark Teixeira, with a few less homers but more steals.

First round players not performing to expectations seem to be a popular theme on message forums, so I thought I would take a look at some more floundering first rounders.   But before I do, I want to say something that holds the early lead in the “what will Zola say ad nauseum next spring” and that is PAY FOR OR DRAFT 2010 EXPECTED STATS, NOT 2009 FINAL STATS.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Most fantasy owners would be thrilled if they had a player on pace for close to 30 homers and over 20 steals.  But when that player is Matt Kemp and he is sporting a batting average of only .267, words like disappointment and bust are bandied about.  What can we expect going forward, not just this season but future seasons at well?

With the trade deadline approaching, let us take a look at some of the more prominent names rumored to be changing addresses.

In my best Church Lady: “How convenient.”  Every week I look for a pitcher and hitter exceeding expectations and one struggling.  Lo and behold, two such hitters were just dealt for each other, so not only do we have ideal candidates to be put under the microscope, but this can double as a trade analysis.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Alex Gonzalez, SS , Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves

What an interesting career path.  Starting as the bad Alex Gonzalez, becoming the other Alex Gonzalez then the only Alex Gonzalez, the new Braves’ shortstop is now someone NL-only players need to contemplate in terms of how much FAAB to bid to acquire his services.  A power hitting shortstop can be a boon to many a fantasy squad, especially getting a couple extra week’s worth of production before the array of deadline deals are consummated.   The question is, how much of the stellar first half Gonzalez enjoyed north of the border will carry over to Hot-lanta.

Truth be told, as wonderful as 17 homers at the break appears, Gonzalez is only doing one thing mildly surprising, and that is he has stayed healthy.  His peripherals are all at the upper end of what he has done previously, so they should not be considered that unexpected.  Well, that is a little exaggerated, as his HR/FB is a career high by a little bit and he is a few more fly balls than normal.  But the levels are not at all eye-popping and are sustainable.  In fact, he is more likely to sustain this elevated production as he is to be healthy enough to do so.

To that end, Gonzalez has only exceeded 150 games once, only surpassing 140 games thrice.  He has averaged a scant 111 games the past 3 season he has played, missing 2008 completely.   He averaged 391 at bats per season he played and has 328 already.  The real question is not if Gonzalez will regress production-wise, but will he continue to play every day?  The good news is Gonzalez appears completely healthy, which is doubly promising as he managed to withstand the artificial surface in Toronto.

For those of you into park effects, it should be noted that the Rogers Center is about 10% more favorable for homers as compared to Gonzalez’ new gig at Turner Field.  But practically speaking, that is the difference between 9 and 10 homers, which is really not worth factoring into the equation.

So what should be factored into the FAAB equation for those in NL only formats?   If you are in the top-3 of your league with respect to remaining FAAB, you likely should pass and hope for a bigger fish in the next couple of weeks.  But for the others, Gonzalez is an “all-in” type of player, especially if you can withstand a small batting average hit.  The possibility of double digit homers from the middle infield for the rest of the season is a worthy investment.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Yunel Escobar, SS, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays

Known as a fine glove-man, Escobar was showing signs of being a solid with the stick as well, but this far, he has been a major fantasy disappointment.   He is hitting a low .238 with nary a homer.  At least he has 5 steals.  How will the move to Toronto impact his fantasy fate?

There are several reports suggesting Escobar had fallen out of favor with the Braves’ brass, especially manager Bobby Cox.   His attitude and dedication was in question and with this being the final season for Cox, the Braves are in serious win-now mode and decided this could be a case of addition by subtraction.   Toronto management must believe manager Cito Gaston can get through to Escobar, stimulating a return to the promising shortstop the Braves thought they had not that long ago.

By the numbers, it is almost eerie how closely Escobar’s skills match up to last season’s, save for the obvious absence of power.  The past 2 season, he has swatted 10 and 14 over the fence, so low double digits should be expected.  But zero?  That is a conundrum.  He has 12 doubles which is in line with the mid 20s he usually smacks, so it is not like a handful of flies have fallen just short.  His line drive, fly ball and ground ball profile match last season’s, the flies are just not carrying.

Could there be an injury?  Possibly, as Escobar missed some time with a sore back at the end of spring training and then had an early May stint on the DL with a groin issue.   So perhaps Escobar is unable to drive the ball.

While Escobar is a better bet than the likes of Ramiro Pena in the middle or an upgrade for those counting on Jaret Hoffpauir to save their season, he is not an all-in candidate.  While he is quite likely to improve upon his first half .238 and knock a few into the stands, there should be a few other better options that cross leagues.   However, if you are in the lower half of FAAB totals in your league and have a hole in the middle, you could catch lightning in a bottle and Escobar is worth bidding about half of what you have left.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Ben Sheets, P, Oakland Athletics

Sheets was signed to a fairly hefty contact by Oakland with the hopes they would either contend and he would be a solid contributor or if the team was struggling, he would sought after by teams in contention as a deadline reinforcement.   At the beginning of the season, the A’s gamble looked to be for naught, but recently, Sheets has shown signs of having some trade value, but how much?

Over his first 15 starts of the season, Sheets sported a pedestrian K/9 of 6.3 with an uncharacteristically poor BB/9 of 3.8.  Over his last 4 efforts, his strikeout rate is 7.5 with a more Sheets-like walk rate of only 1.4.  However, it should be noted that he recorded only 4 strikeouts in the final three games, fanning 9 to begin this 4-game stretch.  That said, Sheets was never an extremely high strikeout guy, he relied more on a low walk rate.

From a “real baseball” view, Sheets has done enough to be attractive for a team looking for a deadline shot in the arm.  But from a fantasy standpoint, I have some reservations but am cautiously optimistic.  He has lost a few mph from his fastball, but has compensated by dropping a couple more off his changeup.   His calling card is his curve which has looked better lately, but is not the hammer it once was.  I also am not convinced he can stay healthy the entire second half.

So long as he stays with Oakland, Sheets is definitely worthy of being deployed for home games.  He is okay for most road tilts but I would be reticent to use him in places like Texas, Chicago, Boston and New York.  His stuff is just not dominant enough to be safe against a top offense in a hitter’s park.  If he is dealt, a move back to the National League would be best, hopefully in a neutral or pitching favorable environment.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Vicente Padilla, P, Los Angeles Dodgers

Joe Torre’s opening day starter is on a bit of a roll.   Since returning from a forearm injury, Padilla has been extremely effective after a rough first start back in an interleague tilt with Boston.   Will he carry this success over to the second half?

My personal philosophy is you cannot usually “fake” strikeouts.   Padilla has fanned 27 over his last 28 1/3^rd innings, spanning 4 starts.  He only issued 3 bases on balls during this stretch.  Granted, you can have streaks like this, but there has to be some level of skill involved, he is not just real lucky over his last four games.  And while his history says this will not continue, Padilla should be able to maintain enough dominance to sustain effectiveness.  Actually, Padilla has displayed this elevated K-rate all season which bodes well.

The recent success Padilla has enjoyed us due to allowing fewer homers, which can be influenced by some luck.  Early in the season, his HR/9 was bloated while it now appears to be under control.   While I would not target Padilla in a trade, if he is available on your wire, which he still may be in mixed leagues, he is worth a free pickup and worthy of activating for home starts and favorable road matchups.  The primary reasoning for me is this recent streak is not a result of Padilla being buoyed by a fortunate hit rate, it is a result of throwing strikes.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Here is the profile I wrote for Ben Zobrist in the spring draft kit: The power is definitely for real.  However, keep expectations in check as the steals came from nowhere and he managed a higher than normal BABIP despite his usual line drive rate.  Many are actually paying for further growth, which quite frankly is not supported by his peripherals.

Hey, at least I got the future growth part right.

As Zobrist’s owners are painfully aware, I had the skills bass-ackwards.  He is stealing at a rapid clip, but Zobrist’s power has fallen off the table.  What gives?

Zobrist’s contact and walk rate along with BABIP are right in line with last season’s marks.  He is hitting a few less fly balls, but nowhere near enough to account for his precipitous drop in power.  Last season he went deep 27 times.  So far this season, he has a scant 5 dingers.

The metric accounting for the paucity in pop is his HR/FB.   When Zobrist first came into the league, power was not his game.  In 2006, he carried a HR/FB of 4.3% in 198 plate appearances.  The following year it fell slightly to 3.6% in 105 plate appearances.  But in 2008, it ballooned to 17.4% over 227 plate appearances.  Then last season, he sustained a 17.5% HR/FB in 599 plate appearances.   The fact he maintained that high rate all of last season was the reason for the statement that “the power is definitely for real.”, though expecting Zobrist to repeat mid 17% would have been optimistic considering his track record at the elevated level was only a season and a half.  But a drop to 6.3% this season is a bit perplexing.   Where did it go and will it return over the second half?

With the disclaimer that I am admittedly behind the curve with respect to reading hit charts and swing percentages, I can observe some data that is not particularly encouraging.   His 5 homers this season have averaged 378.6 feet.  Last season, he averaged 384.4 for his 27 bombs.   Last campaign, 18 of his 27 went to right, this season all 5 have done so, though keep in mind Zobrist is a switch hitter.  And finally, last year, Zobrist swung at only 19.5% of pitches outside of the strike, making contact at a 56.3% clip as compared to swinging at 25.9% this year with 70.2% contact.  So he is not only swinging at more balls, but also hitting them.  For comparison purposes, he is swinging at fewer pitches inside the zone this year, with the same contact rate as last season.  Overall, he is swinging at the same percent of pitches as 2009.

My take on this is he is not driving the ball as well because he is not only swinging at but also hitting poorer pitches.  There is a bit of irony in that his results are suffering because he has actually improved his contact ability.  He is just hitting more balls out of the zone.  Can this be corrected?  Sure.   But I do not see any reason to expect that to occur.  So while I do expect a slightly higher HR/FB because you cannot get much lower than 6.3% mark he presently carries, I do not anticipate double digit homers the rest of the season unless he realizes his strike zone recognition has regressed from last season and Zobrist hones his eye.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Martin Prado, 1B/2B/3B, Atlanta Braves

Prado was a site favorite this spring, in part due to his multiple position eligibility, but mostly because we were optimistic he would take well to starting full time.   Here is his draft kit profile: If you need a boost in average and miss out on Placido Polanco, meet Plan B, Prado.  He has a very similar skill set and will even have the same dual eligibility.  Hopefully you indeed missed out on Polanco.

This just in, as I am writing this, Prado has swatted a couple over the fence bringing his season total to 10 homers, which happens to be Polanco’s season high.  Note to self, next season Polanco is Plan B.  Prado’s power spike is a bit reminiscent of another similar infielder, Marco Scutaro.  Neither hit a bunch of fly balls or a league average HR/FB.  But since both strike out infrequently and hit at or near the top of the order, they have a ton of plate appearances so they accumulate homers.  The downside is they are not candidates to break out along the lines of Aaron Hill, who hits more flies with greater authority.  Their power is capped in the mid to upper teens.

Truth be told, the extra pop Prado has provided is not what you paid for, you paid for his average, which is currently north of .330.  Even if he hits only 5 more dingers over the second half, you should be satisfied.  Your concern should be whether or not he is due for a correction to his batting average.

I have good news.  While he may end the season on the south side of .330, it should not be by that much.  Prado profiles as a .300-.310 hitter and should remain as such over the second half.  He is sporting a high .363 BABIP, but historically he maintains that well above league average, between .340 and .350.  His contact rate is excellent which portends to an excellent average.  It should be noted that his average is buoyed by the extra home runs, since homers count as hits too.

If someone is looking to sell high on Prado, and you need a second half boost in batting average, do not hesitate to get in on that action.  Prado is a solid player and will continue along in that vein.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

It must be Tampa Day here at Mastersball.  But Price is quite worthy of some analysis.  Presently, he is sporting Cy Young like numbers, with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.120.  But do his peripherals support such stellar surface stats?

Here is what we wrote about Price in the draft kit: 2010 likely isn't going to be "the leap" - the good news here with him is that he has a good amount of room to grow - BB and HR rate need to normalize a bit and he gets down to a low 4's guy right there. The issue is whether you have to overpay for his potential while he figures out how to pitch. In a single year league, he doesn't look like next year he blows up, but 2011 could be that year.

The initial reaction is 2010 is indeed “the leap.”  But a closer look suggests we got the BB and HR rate analysis spot on, while some good fortune has benefitted Price, artificially deflating his ratios.  While some may argue we indeed missed the leap and the good fortune is price actually figuring out how to pitch, at least presently, that is too anecdotal for my tastes.  There is some luck involved.

Including last night’s strong performance, Price has a K/9 of 7.80 as compared to 7.2 last season.  But more importantly, as our profile suggested was necessary, he has dropped his BB/9 to 3.36 from last season’s 3.8.  His HR/9 of .70 is also improved from last year’s 1.20.  With the caveat that this is only half a season’s worth of data and a couple off-outings can return both to last season’s level, Price has displayed some skills growth thus far in 2010.

The good fortune is a combination of a low BABIP and a high LOB%.  Again, some may contend he has learned to “control” these metrics, but some pretty stringent research suggests the level of control is not sufficient to account for the entire amount better than league average.  Additionally, the improved LOB% is mostly a result of an improved HR/9 which does have an element of luck involved as his HR/FB of 7.5% is well below the league average of 11%.  That said, he is inducing more grounders, which helps keep the raw total of homers down.

So what can be expected in the second half?  As mentioned above, there is still some more room for growth, especially with respect to Price’s walk rate.  He is already down to the expected ERA discussed above, below 4.00.  Further improvement to his control with a slight uptick in K-rate lowers the expected ERA to the mid 3s.  This is a reasonable ceiling for the rest of 2010 and assumes some continual skills growth.  The safer call is Price maintaining his present walk and strikeout rates with a small rise in home run rate, resulting in an expected ERA of high 3s.  While not Cy Young quality, this is still impressive and useful.  But if someone looks at the 13 wins and scant ERA and WHIP, you can likely get back a pitcher who will have equivalent numbers over the second half plus some reinforcement elsewhere.  Or better yet, you can potentially wrest a quality bat from someone who believes Price has learned how to pitch.

UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston Astros

Well, let’s get right to it.  Here is what we wrote for his profile: A whole lot to like here. I'd pay for projection and not look to him to slide to that 3.00 level, but he's very, very solid and well worth the investment.  And to show I practice what the site preaches, Rodriguez was the intended anchor for my NL Tout Wars staff.  The best laid plans of mice and men.  And fantasy enthusiasts as well.

It is no secret that Rodriguez has struggled mightily the first half.  But what may be a secret is he has sparkled in his last three outings, to the tune of an ERA of 0.90, a WHIP of 0.95 with a 19/4 K/BB in 20 innings, resulting in a 3-game winning streak.  Can he keep it up?

As is often the case with a streak of this nature, Rodriguez has benefitted from a fortunate hit rate, although in such a small sample, I am more amenable to an argument that he helped induce that.  I am not going to agree he can keep that up, but there is enough evidence to suggest a pitcher can impact BABIP in small samples.

That said, what is definitely encouraging is his outstanding strikeout and walk rates over this span.  Prior to this 3-game stretch, Rodriguez carried a K/9 of 6.2 and a BB/9 of 4.1.  These are a far cry from the 8.5/2.8 marks he sported the previous pair of seasons, leading to his optimistic profile and expectation.    The 8.6/1.8 mark of the previous 3 starts are right in line with expectations.

That alone is sufficient to suggest to a “numbers guy” that Rodriguez may have turned the corner and is a good bet to have a solid second half.   And indeed that is the call here.  But there is a little more to it than that and part of this hobby that needs to be utilized a bit more, especially for my fellow stat guys.  There are reports out of Houston that Rodriguez’ curve ball has been more effective lately, leading to his success.  There are in fact advanced metrics that demonstrate that overall, his curve has been ineffective this season.  So if you need a further nudge to inquire about Rodriguez’ availability, watch his next start and focus on how well the old number two looks.  If it seems to have the bite that is further evidence that Rodriguez will be his expected self post-break.

Welcome to Under the Microscope, a new weekly Platinum subscription column that will spotlight two pitchers and two hitters, one exceeding expectations and one scuffling. We will take a look at the numbers behind the numbers in an effort to determine what is in store for the rest of the season. Keep in mind we will usually arrive on a conclusion that should happen. What this means is there is a range of potential outcomes, better and worse than the most probable. Long term, if you manage based on what is most likely to happen, you will come out ahead. You will not nail everything, the idea is to just hit more often than you miss.