It’s June. Too early to start talking about 2015? Of course not. Even if you are involved in a rare league that has a mid-season draft to allow for the selection of 2014 amateur draft picks, dynasty and keeper leaguers still need to start paying attention. After all, there are only a finite number of players, especially if your keeper league is an AL or NL-only league, that are being targeted in the upcoming draft. And therefore, whether your league bases its minor league draft picks on final standings, reverse final standings or an alternative format whereby the highest ranking team not to receive a monetary prize gets first pick and so on and so forth, owners need to start thinking about where they want to end up in the standings and determine where they need to finish to at least have a crack at this finite pool of talent.
So, who is out there that is truly worth targeting?
Kyle Schwarber was the highest selected catcher at fourth overall by the Cubs, but it is pretty much universally questioned whether or not he can actually stay there given a sub-par glove and his size (240 pounds), which doesn’t scream stay behind the plate. What also is not questioned is a well-disciplined approach with plus-power potential that given a move to first base, makes the lefty an interesting target for NL-only leaguers, which makes him a legitimate top pick for dynasty leaguers.
If you are looking for a catcher who has a better chance to stay behind the plate, Max Pentecost might be the guy for you. Pentecost does not have Schwarber’s power, but he is a better all-around athlete who has a more contact/line-drive oriented theme that projects to low to mid-teens power with a strong average. Catchers, given their general overall snail-like foot speed, often fail to hit for average despite the tools to do so (see Matt Wieters, etc.), but Schwarber actually is at least an average, if not above average runner and might be a .280s or better hitter at the MLB level. That all said, he’s probably not a first-round pick in most minor league drafts as he projects to be more of a solid starter than a star player. The Blue Jays, having dealt away Travis D’Arnaud, have a thin system at catcher, and Pentecost has a chance to move up the ranks quickly as a result.
The Rays selected Casey Gillaspie 20th overall as their first baseman of the future. The Rays have used a mix of stop-gap type players at the position over the years, so as with Pentecost, Gillaspie is someone who could be promoted quickly depending on how quickly he acclimates to pro ball. The younger brother of Conor Gillaspie, the switch-hitting Casey has retained the familial trait of good plate discipline. As an aside, when drafted highly by the Giants in the first round of the 2008 draft, I thought Conor had a legitimate chance to be the next Bill Mueller. It seems Conor, like Mueller, is something of a late bloomer and hitting that stride, though the power has evaporated. Getting back to Casey, he is larger than his older brother and has more typical first baseman’s raw power, projecting to be at least a 20-HR, if not 25-HR per season threat. Starting next year in Double-A is not out of the question.A.J. Reed is an interesting selection. The second first baseman taken in the draft has 25-plus homer potential and has a good approach, though not the bat speed of Gillaspie. As a second round pick, he’ll probably drop past the first round in most keeper league drafts, but as a fairly polished college hitter, he should move quickly through the Astros system, where his most likely destination is DH given his rather significant defensive limitations and the presence of Jon Singleton at first.
Ordinarily, I might instantly dismiss right-handed hitting first basemen from consideration, but Sam Travis defies that axiom as a highly disciplined hitter who walks more often than he strikes out and possesses high-teens to low-twenties home run power, a combination that could potentially be more valuable than the more highly drafted Reed.
Second base is rarely a spot to find premium fantasy picks, as the best second basemen are typically shortstops that didn’t have the arm or range to stay there, so we’ll pass on the position for this draft.
The A’s used their first-round pick to take the first third baseman in the draft at 25th overall in Cal State-Fullerton’s Matt Chapman. Off the top of my head, this is the first draft in recent memory where the top college hitter was not a third baseman or at the very least one was not selected among the first ten picks. That said, Chapman profiles well as a defender for the position given a good range and a true plus-fastball that also saw him used as a reliever in college. Chapman profiles as a mid to high-teens hitter for power and has the requisite plate discipline that one in the past would often see from an Oakland draft pick. He is more for consideration in the mid to late rounds of your minor league draft and does not project as a true impact talent.
Taylor Sparks, a second-round pick, compares well to Chapman and may be a plus defender in his own right. Sparks may have greater raw power than Chapman, but he has a more suspect approach and higher strikeout rates that could catch up to him in the Minors.
Next week, we will have more 2014 amateur draft targets for your consideration in 2015.
This week, we continue our focus on the Eastern League with a look at the Orioles' Bowie Baysox and the Nationals' Harrisburg Senators.
Bowie Baysox (Orioles)
The Baysox have a fairly interesting collection of hitting and pitching prospects to sift through starting with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The 21-year-old still has mid-to-upper end of the rotation potential but has struggled in his second stay in Double-A with his strikeout rates dropping over a full point and posting an ERA approaching 6.00 despite showing adequate control and strikeout skills. A knee injury that had him out for much of the early season may be to blame, as much of the damage occured earlier in the season before he went on the disabled list, but he has been up and down since his return with three solid starts alongside two poor outings. Patience is necessary, but the lefty is doing no favors for his trade value at the moment. The one saving grace is a .333 BABIP and 57% left-on-base rate that both suggest things can only get better, at least from the regression and skills displayed department.
Rotation-mate Tim Berry has fared quite a bit better and has done well to translate his skills from A+ to Double-A, showing very similar strikeout and control skills as he did at the lower level. The biggest question for Berry is how his stuff – a low nineties fastball, plus curve and average change-up, will work at the upper levels and whether or not he will continue to get swings and misses. Berry is still worthy of note to fantasy players, but it is hard to foresee him beyond a fourth starter type at the moment.
21-year-old Zach Davies came into the season as something of a sleeper, but the results have been both intriguing and frustrating. Intriguing on the basis of a 10.5 K/9 and frustrating on the part of collapsed command, significant trouble with the long-ball and generally being hit hard enough to post a 6.26 ERA. Given that Davies is not a hard thrower and has always been someone who has to rely upon having pinpoint command to succeed, his struggles are not good news.
I was hoping for big things from Michael Ohlman this season, particularly with Matt Wieters in his walk year. Now, Wieters is out for the season and Ohlman has done little to push his way up the minor league ladder, batting .236/.321/.330. Ohlman, at 6’5”, has always been a bat-first catcher who would eventually need to move out from behind the plate. Last year, he displayed good power, hit for average and showed on-base skills, and given his age, it would not have been surprising to see him split the year between Double-A and Triple-A. Unfortunately, that no longer seems to be the case and barring a turnaround, Ohlman could find himself relegated to organizational player status.
One of the bright spots for Bowie has been Christian Walker, who has produced a .306/.365/.543 line with 17 homers and really has little left to prove at this level. The main knock on Walker has been the lack of punch in his bat, making him a fringe starting first base option with mid to high-teens power potential, albeit with fair on base skills and a good ability to make consistent contact. Well, thus far, Walker is answering those critics strongly and it will be worth tracking him as he heads up the Minors to see if he can maintain these new gains. It should be noted, however, that the power output has cost him some of his contact making skills as Walker has posted his highest strikeout rate of the year, so carrying the .300 batting average beyond Double-A may no longer be possible. Keep an eye on him to see if the righty can somehow keep hitting for power and regain his previous contact making skills.
Harrisburg Senators (Nationals)
A.J. Cole leads an impressive pack of prospects in the Harrisburg rotation. After 12 starts, Cole has a 7.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 to go along with a 2.56 ERA. While a concern, the two-plus point drop-off in K/9 is not a great surprise as Cole’s change-up and curve have some potential but are far from finished offerings, particularly the curve, which is more of a slurve. Cole’s command of his dominant fastball remains elite, and that along with his change-up will be enough to get him to the Majors on the path as a potential middle of the rotation candidate, at the very least.
It is nice to see Matt Skole still at third base. In the pre-season, it was thought he would have to move to first base given the depth in the organization at the position, but the former Yellow Jacket has stayed at the hot corner for now, but given a lack of speed despite having the arm and hands, he will still ultimately move over to first base. Skole’s value lies in his bat, and unfortunately, the hitter from 2012 who hit 27 homers and walked 21% of the time has yet to show up. Things have started to turn around with back-to-back games with homers last week and three multi-hit games, so he may be finally adjusting to the higher level of the Minors.
Michael Taylor is producing at an exciting level with 16 homers, 17 steals and a .331/.416/.595 line all while walking 12% of the time. The righty is a five-tool player with 20-30 or better home run potential, but his strikeout rate is a huge red flag as he has swung and missed over 30% of the time and has posted a .451 batting average on balls in play to accomplish that impressive stat line. The speed will continue to help him hit for average, but it is difficult to see him as much more than a .260 to 270s hitter at the MLB level barring an adjustment to his swing and selectivity.
Sammy Solis made three starts at three different levels only to find himself on the disabled list with elbow discomfort. Solis has previously undergone Tommy John surgery, so the Nationals will be very cautious with the lefty. Given a fastball that reaches the upper nineties and a solid change, health permitting, Solis has a shot at a big league career as a middle reliever.
Next week: A break from the Eastern League and a look at the amateur draft crop for keeper and dynasty leaguers.
This week, we will be spending some more quality time in the Eastern League, delving into the status of the Giants and Yankees top Double-A prospects.
Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants)
Richmond is home to three of the Giants’ top minor league hurlers. 21-year-old Kyle Crick has gone more than five innings this season only once due to hitting his pitch count far too early in games. Crick has struggled with his control his entire pro career and is now operating with a 9.7 K/9 and 7.5 BB/9, but continues to be highly rated due to two definite plus pitches and potential for a third. The Giants have every intention of leaving him in the rotation for now, and keep in mind that he is young for his level of play, so repeating Double-A in 2015 is not out of the question. All that said, I think his projection screams “move to the pen” where he could possibly be dominant.
While Crick is young for Double-A, he is not the youngest on the roster. Adalberto Mejia won’t turn 21 until later this month but has had quite a bit more success than his teammate. The 6’3” lefty continues to show excellent command (2.0 BB/9) and mixes an average to plus fastball and plus changeup well. Mejia is a more sure thing, as pitchers go, than Crick, but he profiles more as a #3 or #4 type starter. For now, he has a 7-plus K/9 in Double-A, but let's see how well he transitions to the upper levels with a mediocre breaking ball at best.
Ty Blach is the most refined product of this trio, unsurprising for being the 23-year-old college veteran of the group. The lefty is a strike zone pounder with four effective, but non-wipeout level pitches. While Blach has a 1.6 BB/9 this year, he has been very hittable (4.9 K/9) and his 2.77 ERA is not sustainable given a near 80% left on base rate and .239 batting average on balls in play. Before the season, I might have considered him a fourth starter, but now he’s looking more like a borderline fifth, barring him missing more bats.
Reliever Derek Law has 12 saves as Richmond’s closer and has struck out more than a batter per inning, but something seems off. Law has been generally known for his sterling command of two average to plus pitches and has struck out batters at high rates at each level of play. This year, his BB/9 is up almost five points (yes it’s a 5.2 from a 0.4 in A+ last season) and his strikeout rates are down from a 15.8 to a 9.3. Law is still performing, but he’ll need to show more to stay on the potential late-inning reliever/possible closer path.
Trenton Thunder (Yankees)
Yankee fans, prepare to get slightly depressed.
Only recently, Manny Banuelos was the best prospect, let alone the best pitching prospect, in the Yankees farm system. Now 23 years of age, Banuelos is trying to reclaim that title as he pitches his way back from Tommy John surgery. The lefty made quick work of the Florida State League over five starts and has since made five appearances for Trenton with mixed results and much reduced control over the strike zone, with a 5-plus BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over the extremely small 11.2 inning sample size. Most of the damage can be traced to a single 0.2 inning outing in which he walked three batters. Banuelos’ velocity and command are slowly returning and he is worth watching, but his ascent back up the ladder will be slow and his ultimate role may be relief. At the very least, his stint in A+ ball with a sub 2.0 BB/9 was very encouraging for someone recovering from TJS.
21-year-old catcher Gary Sanchez is continuing his climb to the Majors but is quite likely to do so one level at a time. After hitting just .250 in Double-A last year, he continues to hit just .257 and is getting on base less often than last season with an overall .257/.322/.436 slash. The righty’s consistent .280 batting average on balls in play is very indicative of his foot speed/role as a catcher and despite his ability to make fairly consistent contact and having high teens or quite possibly even better power potential, it’s unlikely he’ll be a candidate to hit for a high average going forward. The Yankees have little reason to rush him with Brian McCann signed long-term and it’s quite possible that Sanchez could end up trade bait. At the very least, Sanchez’s plus defensive skills will carry him to the Majors.
Top outfield prospect Slade Heathcott is currently repeating Double-A and has missed much of the early season due to his recovery from off-season knee surgery. So far, it looks like the lefty is right where he should be, batting under .200 while striking out 36% of the time in his first 36 plate appearances. When healthy, Heathcott profiles as a capable centerfielder/right fielder with mid-teens home run potential and 20-plus stolen base skills. First, he has to prove he can actually make contact and produce, something he has not done since his stint in A+ ball in 2012.
Unfortunately, the dismal news continues for the Yankees with Mason Williams. A gifted athlete who has shown much improved plate discipline this season, he has struggled in Double-A with a .203/.301/.276 line. Williams is actually making contact close to 90% of the time and walking even more often, but he has not shown any punch at the plate whatsoever. Again, this is another good tools prospect who has not shown anything of significance since 2012, when he was in A-ball.
Next week - more Double-A action.
Triple-A is now most often thought of as the reserve roster for the Majors, mostly filled with veterans and a scattering of prospects here and there. Having visited there for the last few weeks, we move on to Double-A, where many of the top upper level prospects reside. Several players a season skip over Triple-A to the Majors, often to their detriment, particularly for starting pitchers who do not have a fully developed third pitch.
Akron RubberDucks (Indians)
Francisco Lindor is a good candidate to be one of those prospects jumped straight to the Majors. A future gold glove candidate, Lindor got off to a slow start in the Eastern League, but he has since found surer footing. I’ve often compared Lindor to former Mariner and Indian shortstop Omar Vizquel and that still stands. An elite defender, Vizquel had above average speed, gap power and superior on-base/contact making skills. Much the same can be said about Lindor, though he has had more difficulty making consistent contact at Double-A. The switch-hitter now has a .288/.368/.418 line and is a potential mid to late-season call-up, depending on whether the Indians opt to move free agent to be Asdrubal Cabrera. Keep in mind that it took Vizquel awhile to adjust to major league pitching, and the same patience is advised with Lindor. The glove will come first, the bat later.
Tyler Naquin continues to disappoint at the plate. The lefty continues to display solid centerfield skills and good base running speed, but also rather mediocre on-base skills and especially sub-par contact skills for someone with high single-digit home run power. Naquin has a .286/.345/.396 line and is likely to remain in Double-A all season long. I think he is on the fourth outfielder path to the Majors.
Cody Anderson’s lack of a wipeout pitch has shown up in Double-A. The big righty has produced 4.35 ERA and has seen his K/9 drop over a full point. The 23-year-old is looking more and more like a back end of the rotation starter.
As with Anderson, Ronny Rodriguez’s shortcomings are being exposed at the Double-A level. Rodriguez is a quality athlete with upper teens power potential and double-digit speed. Rodriguez makes fairly consistent contact but really has not met a pitch he doesn’t like to swing at and is now batting .184/.223/.316. Given a .198 BABIP and his tools, some upwards correction is likely, but again we may now be talking more borderline starter or utility player long-term.
Atloona Curve (Pirates)
After making 12 starts with a good deal of success in Double-A last year, I expected Nick Kingham to advance to Triple-A this year. Instead, the Pirates returned the righty to Double-A and the results thus far have been far worse than his first trial. When on, Kingham owns a good curveball and solid change, but he has increasingly been unable to throw his pitches for strikes and has also seen his K/9 drop almost two points since last season, which has me wondering if this is truly a 100% healthy pitcher.
Former pitcher Stetson Allie’s transition to hitting after crushing the ball in low-ball in 2013 has not gone well. The righty has done little to alter his approach, walking 13% of the time, but continues to fan over a quarter of the time and has now hit under .230 at both A+ and Double-A ball. Allie is starting to look more and more like a right-handed platoon player.
In a continuing and unfortunate theme of Pirate prospects failing to dominate Double-A, Alen Hanson joins that contingent. Hanson, who profiles best as a second baseman, has low to mid-teens pop and 30-plus stolen base tools. Despite good to very good across the board tools, like Ronny Rodriguez, Hanson has a suspect plate approach, making contact 82 to 83 percent of the time while walking fewer than 6% of the time. His .268/.313/.443 line might be the 21-year-old's MLB ceiling, which would be valuable as a 10 to 15 HR, 25-plus stolen base second baseman, though not as valuable in terms of real or sim-league play.
Binghamton Mets (Mets)
The Mets are one of the rare organizations that have more talent at Triple-A than Double-A. Kevin Plawecki is really the one player of note. A 6’2” catcher, Plawecki is an average defender most noted for an advanced, contact-oriented plate approach and gap power. That continues for now as the righty has made contact 88% of the time while producing a .331/.367/.500 line. He’s most likely in line for a 2015 promotion after some time in Triple-A. While the 23-year-old has produced, he is drawing fewer walks this season and has not tapped into quite as much power as originally expected of him. It will be interesting to see if he can be more than a right-handed Josh Thole and more like A.J. Pierzynski (as a hitter) long-term.
If Jack Leathersich could ever make the transition from thrower to pitcher, the Mets might have something. The 5’11" lefty throws into the mid-nineties and misses bats regulary (16.4 K/9 in Double-A) but fails to control his breaking ball or changeup with any regularlty, walking more than five batters per nine innings. He’s a longshot as a late-inning reliever, but power-lefties are always worthy of note.
Next week, we continue our trek through the Eastern League.
This week, we make our last few stops on the Pacific Coast League train before delving down to Double-A.
Colorado Springs Sky Sox (Rockies)
Colorado Springs does not house many of the Rockies' top talents with the exception of Chad Bettis. 2009 first-round pick Tyler Matzek is also there and is still young at 23 years old. The lefty has had great difficulty developing into a pitcher and while his current 4.5 BB/9 is the lowest it's ever been, it still needs work. On the good side, Matzek has reversed the strikeout decline trend and is close to striking out a batter per inning again. While he remains in the rotation, his future screams reliever.
Between promotions in 2013 and this year, Bettis has exhausted his rookie eligibility. A 2010 second-round pick, Bettis has a more effective and deeper repertoire than Matzek which he can throw for strikes. Despite that, given a series of injuries, the Rockies have opted to move the righty to a relief role full-time this season where he is averaging 93 mph on the fastball. Despite a good fastball and plus-changeup to go along with good command, Bettis has not translated his strikeout rates to the upper minors or majors and will need to do so in order to be considered a potential setup man or closer at the MLB level.
Iowa Cubs (Cubs)
While Colorado Springs may be somewhat disappointing to prospect hunters, Iowa is a treasure trove. Javier Baez leads the way, but after being considered for a possible opening day spot, the Cubs wisely sent him to Triple-A. The PCL has not been all that kind to Baez, who is currently batting .162 and striking out at a 36 percent clip. Baez hit 37 homers last year, but did so with sub-par plate discipline. It's finally caught up to him and perhaps at 21 years of age, a demotion back to Double-A should be made where he'd be playing with others closer to his age. I have been and continue to remain very skeptical regarding his long-term viability as an everyday major leaguer barring a massive improvement in his plate approach.
Former eighth-round pick Kyle Hendricks received a taste of Triple-A late last season and is following up strongly in 2014, posting a 9.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Hendricks is not overpowering, but he has excellent command of his fastball and changeup and has an overall deep enough arsenal to be considered as a potential #4 hurler.
22-year-old Arismendy Alcantara is making a solid, albeit unspectacular transition to Triple-A. The toolsy second baseman has plus speed and nine stolen bases to show for it as well as some extra base power which should translate to 25 to 30 doubles and 10 to 15 homers at the MLB level. Alcantara’s ability to make contact has faded as he has progressed and this season, his quarter of the time strikeout rate is the highest of his career, so do not expect an easy transition to the Majors upon his promotion later this year.
Reno Aces (Diamondbacks)
In Reno, Zeke Spruill has been splitting his time between the bullpen and the rotation and has an overall 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 alongside an ugly 5.72 ERA thanks in part to a .333 batting average on balls in play and 20% HR/FB rate. Spruill has the requisite skills, including a sinker, solid change, and plus slider to be a starter, but despite being able to throw them for strikes, his ability to command them in Triple-A and the Majors has been in question. The former Brave now looks like a possible fifth starter/swingman long reliever.
Nick Ahmed came along with Spruill from the Braves in the Justin Upton deal and after two very mediocre seasons that almost wiped him off the prospect chart, the second-round pick has started to perform at the plate. Ahmed has always had plus speed and 30-plus stolen base potential as well as above average shortstop defensive skills, so he will make the Majors at least as a utility man regardless of his bat. This year, Ahmed has posted a .301/.382/.361 line, showing off his good bat speed and plate discipline for effect. The former second-round pick, however, has little in the way of punch and projects as a low-single digits home run hitter at the MLB level. It is very possible that he, similarly to the recently retired Chris Getz, could be outmatched at the MLB level from a tools standpoint and not due to any lack of baseball skills on his part.
Many are eagerly awaiting the arrival of Archie Bradley to join the D-Backs rotation, but he has been sidelined due to what is termed a minor flexor strain. The 21-year-old right-hander’s pure stuff is upper end of the rotation quality with two to three plus potential pitches. Bradley struggled with his control at Double-A last year and has continued to do so this season to the point where his ERA has been over 5.00. Barring good health and a significant turnaround, do not expect to see Bradley before September.
Salt Lake Bees (Angels)
The Angels recently promoted C.J. Cron to the Majors, leaving Taylor Lindsey as the only solid prospect in Salt Lake City. Despite showing a very disciplined and contact-oriented approach, Lindsey has managed a weak .244/.330/.372 slash along with four homers and four steals. Despite the slow start, he still comps pretty well with Adam Kennedy, minus the speed, and should develop into an average regular, given the opportunity.
Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
Chris Taylor was behind both Nick Franklin and Brad Miller on the team’s long-term depth charts, but he may force the issue given the struggles of the former two players. The 23-year-old is currently lighting things up with a .372/.414/.593 line thanks in large part to an ungodly .440 batting average on balls in play. Because of that hot start, the former fifth-round pick could see some MLB action in the near future. His hot start aside, Taylor has low to mid single digits home run power and modest 15 to 20 stolen base speed. He’s fair with the glove and can handle short better than Franklin, but does not have Miller’s arm and is best suited to second base. Long term, he still looks best suited to a utility role.
This week, we continue our tour of the Pacific Coast League to check up on the progress of some of the closest prospects to the Majors.
Albuquerque Isotopes (Dodgers)
Albuquerque is quite well stocked with some of the Dodgers' top prospects. Leading the way is top hitting prospect Joc Pederson. While Albuquerque is up there as one of the top hitter’s parks in professional baseball, Pederson’s output has still been impressive. The 22-year-old continues to be a highly disciplined hitter, walking 17% of the time, but even though he is striking out a career high quarter of the time, he has a .373/.481/.679 slash (Hello .476 batting average on balls in play!). Regardless, the lefty remains a legitimate 20-20 or better threat, though of course the batting average is likely to drop given the increase in strikeout rates and how he adjusts to lefties in the big leagues.
Alex Guerrero failed to beat out Dee Gordon for the starting second base job, and while Gordon is doing everything to keep the job, batting .336, that does not mean Guerrero is done as a potential starter. The Cuban defector is enjoying the hitting environment, batting .341/.398/.588 while making contact nearly 90% of the time. Guerrero has mid-teens or better HR potential and solid foot speed and a 28 million dollar contract that pretty much guarantees he will get a shot at some point.
Both Pederson and Guerrero will get their chances, but they hinge on potential injuries, which given the history of the Dodgers’ veterans, makes their odds favorable for call-ups here and there. Obtaining sustained playing time may be more difficult, but the season is still quite young.
As favorable as Albuquerque is to hitters, the opposite is true for pitchers. Zach Lee has been overcoming the odds for now, despite a 2-plus point drop in his strikeout rate, but strikeouts have never been a huge part of his game. Lee is more of a strike zone pounder with a deep repertorire, but without a single wipeout pitch. In other words, the drop-off was expected, though perhaps not to this degree at the Triple-A level. Regardless, Lee has a 3.86 ERA over seven starts and continues to show above average command. The former first-round pick should see some cups of coffee this season and will eventually settle in as a third or fourth starter for the Dodgers.
Jose Dominguez has already had his first tour of duty, likely of several, in the Majors this season. While control will never be his forte’, no one can deny the 23-year-old does not throw hard. Dominguez regularly reaches the upper nineties and has been known to reach triple digits. Given that and an average to plus slider, there is late-inning potential, provided he continues to make the adjustment from thrower to pitcher. So far, Dominguez has struck out batters at a 12.4 K/9 rate in the Minors and 11.4 K/9 in the Majors to go along with a 4-plus BB/9 at both levels.
Omaha Storm Chasers (Royals)
The Storm Chasers are unfortunately not as prospect-laden a team as Albuquerque. Brett Eibner is perhaps the best hitting prospect on the team. The 25-year-old outfielder has risen through the organization one level at a time since being drafted as a second-round pick in 2010. The righty has pretty good tools and enough range to handle centerfield. However, Eibner is also known for his high strikeout rates (31% this year), though he has been known to draw walks and get on base too. Given 20-plus HR ability and good defensive chops, he should get a chance as a reserve outfielder and could serve as a platoon player in the long run. Right now, he is struggling to make contact and batting just .216/.283/.352, so it may be a late season call-up at this rate until he proves capable of shortening his swing.
Fresno Grizzlies (Giants)
Outfield prospect Gary Brown has fallen down the prospect charts over the past two seasons. His performance at Double-A in 2012 was disappointing and last year in Triple-A, Brown batted .231/.286/.375 and has lost his centerfielder of the future tag. His second tour of duty for Fresno has been better with a .276/.333/.395 line. Brown still has double-digits home run power and 30-plus stolen base tools while showing a much improved approach in the early goings, so while he may not be a regular, there is some renewed chance here that he may have a MLB career and be of value.
22-year-old Edwin Escobar has risen to become one of the Giants' top pitching prospects, but despite showing good command (2.8 BB/9) and missing bats (8.2 K/9), he has struggled with runners on base and sports a 4.89 ERA. The lefty owns three pitches of at least MLB quality and given an elevated BABIP and suppressed left-on-base rate, he should be able to improve that ERA over the course of the season. An opening for him should be available later this season.
25-year-old Heath Hembree should already own a bullpen spot for the Giants but has been up and down this season with the big club. The righty posted a 14.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over his brief stint and dominated in 2013 as the Fresno closer. This year, he has produced a 9.7 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Hembree possesses a plus, upper nineties fastball and plus slider. Expect him to be up and down all season long, but keep him in mind down the road as a potential closer candidate.
Despite Marco Scutaro being on the disabled list, Joe Panik remains in Triple-A. Panik is not a high-end prospect, possessing single-digit home run power and stolen base speed, but he is a highly disciplined hitter who makes frequent contact and gets on base. Last year, he appeared a bit overpowered, managing a .257/.333/.347 line, but he is back on track this year with a .317/.389/.401 slash. Whether or not MLB pitchers can overpower him will determine his long-term viability as a starter.
Andrew Susac would be more highly rated in another organization. In fact, this catcher does belong in another organization considering the presence of Buster Posey. Susac has the chops to be an average defender and hitter, possessing mid-teens to perhaps in time low-twenties home run power and a very advanced plate approach. This year, he has made contact 84% of the time while batting .333/.421/.591. Eventually, the Giants will have to figure out how to get his bat in the lineup or deal him to address an organizational need.
Next week, we continue with more action in the PCL.
We have given our due to the International League these past two weeks, so it is time for a mild change-up and move westerly with a progress update on the upper level prospects of the Pacific Coast League.
El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres)
Both Burch Smith and Keyvius Sampson are enduring some difficulties. Smith has been out with a strained forearm for much of the season and has just two starts under his belt so far. No structural damage was revealed, but forearm injuries are typically linked to elbow issues. Keep this situation carefully monitored if you have Smith in a keeper league and once activated watch his walk rate closely.
Sampson has no such excuses. The Padres have kept the righty in the rotation over his first six starts, but that role may not last much longer. Sampson has a plus fastball/curve combo, but ever since reaching Triple-A last year has had a great deal of difficulty finding the strike-zone with a combined 6-plus BB/9 over 15 Triple-A starts. The move to a relief role, where he might flourish and has late-inning potential, may be coming soon.
Reymond Fuentes enjoyed a comeback as a prospect in 2013, playing well at two levels while stealing 35 bases, showing much improved plate discipline and contact-making skills. His first full season of Triple-A has been more of the same in the plate discipline and steals department, but has been nil otherwise in the offense department as he has hit just .195/.305/.280 in the early goings. Given Fuentes’ plus tools and skills, this is a situation that is likely to turn around, but he is still on a fourth outfielder track as opposed to an everyday player track.
Las Vegas 51s (Mets)
Sleeper closer Vic Black failed to make the opening day roster and while he continues to have two plus power pitches and has a 9.6 K/9 in 10.1 innings, the righty has also walked 8.7 batters per nine innings yet somehow has an 0.87 ERA. That won’t last for long in Triple-A and certainly won’t work in the Majors.
Jacob deGrom, meanwhile, is biding his time for a rotation spot. The 25-year-old is a late bloomer who pitched well in Triple-A last year and has thrown up almost a carbon copy of those results so far with a 7.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. He should make it at least as a reliever given a fastball that can touch the upper nineties and a good change-up, but it is the development of his curve which will be the deciding factor.
Rafael Montero does not have deGrom’s fastball, but he is a more complete pitcher with pinpoint command. The 23-year-old’s command has not been as sharp as last year, though somewhat forgivable pitching in Vegas (3.5 compared to 2.5 the year before and sub 2.0 at just about every other minor league stop). More impressively, despite no one true wipe-out pitch, Montero has actually increased his strikeout rate from last year to 8.6. Long term, Montero could be a third or fourth starter for the Mets.
Oh yes, the Mets also have a pitcher named Noah Syndergaard in their Triple-A rotation. Scouts love the 6’5” righty’s mechanics, command and pitchability, not to mention his #1 or #2 type starter’s stuff which includes an overpowering fastball and hard curve. The further lack of development of his changeup and quite possibly pitching conditions (Las Vegas being perhaps the worst place to pitch in the Minors) are showing as his K/9 has dropped to a 7.9 while his walk rate has climbed above the 3.0 mark for he first time since 2011 when he was in rookie ball. The 21-year-old is one of the younger players in Triple-A and still very much a work in progress. The Mets have no need to rush him, especially given the presence of both deGrom and Montero.
Wilmer Flores was up briefly with the Mets and is being utilized at a variety of positions, particularly shortstop, in order to find a way to get his bat into the MLB lineup. Flores really does not have the range to play the position but does have good hands and a strong throwing arm, which make him a capable third baseman and a reasonable option at second. Flores has not been dominating offensively like last year and is making less contact than he has in the past, but he has started to pick things up recently with a two-home run game this past Friday.
Cesar Puello’s transition to Triple-A has not gone as well as hoped. The 23-year-old may have excellent all-around tools, but when one walks 2% of the time and strikes out near a quarter, results will be tough to come by. Puello has produce d a.241/.267/.287 line in Triple-A and could possibly be demoted. There is 20-20 potential lurking here, but he has quite a bit to prove, especially after his PED suspension last season.
Memphis Redbirds (Cardinals)
Lefty Tim Cooney has had two rough outings out of six starts this year, giving up eight of the 13 earned runs he’s allowed this season in those starts alone. Otherwise, Cooney remains true to form, pounding the zone with a fairly deep repertoire that should earn him a call-up and possibly a rotation spot later this season. While Cooney has produced solid strikeout rates in the Minors, there has been a dip from Double-A to Triple-A and a further decline into the 6’s should be expected once he reaches the Majors. Cooney’s upside is that of a fourth to third starter at best.
Undrafted free agent Zach Petrick is not a high-end prospect, but given the way he pitched at three levels of the Minors in 2013, one might think otherwise. In fact, he has already pitched at two levels this season, promoted to Triple-A after three starts at Double-A where he posted a 0.48 ERA. His move to Triple-A has been Petrick’s first brush with adversity since turning pro, though to be fair most of the damage was done in a single start where he walked a very uncharacteristic five batters. Generally, Petrick has very good pitchability, throwing strikes and mixing his pitches well. He now profiles as a fourth or fifth starter.
To contrast Petrick, his teammate Stephen Piscotty was a supplemental first-round pick in 2012. An outfielder, the righty continues to hit for average and make good contact while showing at least gap power, but so far he has not been able to tap into the high-teens to low-twenties home run power projected of his 6’3” frame. The lack of power and a decline in normally excellent plate discipline (sub 4% walk rate and increased strikeout rates) are reasons to be concerned, but of course the sample size is small. Right now, there is a wide range of outcomes for how his career will end up, though perhaps his upside is likely that of a Nick Markakis.
Fortunately for Piscotty, he has time to correct his game as Oscar Taveras is ahead of him on the depth charts and is currently blocked for everyday time. The 22-year-old continues to impressively make consistent, hard contact while hitting for power, maintaining the possibility that he’ll end up a 25-plus home run, .300-plus hitter long term. The lefty is currently batting .301/.357/.495 while making contact 88% of the time without sacrificing his plate discipline.
Former first-round pick Kolten Wong won the opening day starting job only to struggle in his first regular exposure to MLB pitching, and was subsequently demoted. The good news here is that unlike some prospects, he has not let his struggles stick with him in the Minors. Instead, Wong has hit .310 over his first 31 plate appearances. We have not seen the last of him and he should still be the Cardinals' man at second long term. While not an impact player per se, the combination of his on-base and hitting skills and solid defense at second will get him another chance.
Next, we'll continue to make the rounds around the PCL.
This week we pick up from last week with a detailed look at the progress of some prospects in the upper minors.
Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies)
21-year-old Maikel Franco is one of the younger players in the International League and it appears to be showing. The righty has always been an aggressive, if not overly aggressive hitter, but at least he had been making contact 86 to 90 percent of the time while rarely walking. Now, the third baseman is still aggressive, but striking out 20 percent of the time and batting just .176 after enjoying a .339/.363/.563 Double-A campaign plus 31 homers between two minor league stops. The season is still young and Franco could yet end up a slugging third baseman who also hits for average, but right now, an appropriate comparison might be Will Middlebrooks.
Norfolk Tides (Orioles)
The Orioles could use some help in the outfield but Henry Urrutia did not show much in spring training and has struggled mightily in Triple-A too. The Cuban defector has no particular standout tool but showed a good approach, gap power and solid defense in Double-A. At age 27, he will not stay employed for long with a .220 batting average and a 26 percent strikeout rate while showing no power to boot.
The Orioles do at least have some good news with Kevin Gausman. The righty is in stand-by mode while he waits for his MLB shot and has an 8.4 K/9 and sub-3.00 ERA to his name over five starts. However, his normally above average command has been off kilter, as he is walking batters at a rate of 4.6 per nine innings pitched. The hard-thrower will need to work on that aspect of his game to earn a promotion. Late last season, it was his lack of strike zone command that did him in with eight homers allowed. Gausman has a top of the rotation repertoire with a plus-plus change-up, plus fastball and solid average to plus slider and a history of good control. A month or two more of minor league work should get him the call.
Pawtucket Red Sox (Red Sox)
Based on the Red Sox’s roster juggling when Will Middlebrooks went down, it is quite clear they are in no rush to start Garin Cecchini’s service time clock. With Middlebrooks back from the DL, that clock will be pushed even further down the road. So far so good in Triple-A for the third baseman with a .320 batting average that has been fueled by a .404 batting average on balls in play. The lefty continues to be patient and is hitting line drives, but has raised his strikeout rate to above 20 percent for the first time in his career. Since Cecchini does not profile to be much more than a single-digits to low-teens home run hitter, it is imperative that his other offensive skills, particularly his plate discipline, translate to Triple-A and the Majors to make him worthy of consideration for starting duty.
A power pitcher, Anthony Ranaudo is mowing them down at Pawtucket with a 9.5 K/9 where his plus fastball/curve combo are both effective pitches. Throwing strikes, however, has been an issue (5.3 BB/9), and that along with a .368 BABIP has his ERA soaring in the early goings. The righty is not being rushed, but at 24, needs to further refine his change-up as well as his command in order to remain in the rotation. Ranaudo has middle, or better, of the rotation potential but could also easily end up in relief where he might flourish as a late-inning arm.
Ranaudo is not the only one struggling. Allen Webster was quite effective in Triple-A last season but got hit hard in the Majors and has regressed with his control since then, posting a 4.4 BB/9 in 2014. Of more concern has been the complete dropoff in strikeout rates from a 9.9 K/9 to 5.5. Webster has three average to plus pitches that should make him a solid middle of the rotation type, but like Ranaudo, if he does not improve his command, he could end up being an effective late-inning reliever.
Brandon Workman began the year in the Sox’s bullpen but got sent to Triple-A to get stretched out as a starter instead. The righty does not have the upside of either Webster or Ranaudo but has a deep repertoire that he does indeed throw for strikes, and despite not owning a true wipeout pitch, there is a chance he might have a more successful career than either of his colleagues. Despite an 8.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9, Workman’s ERA is over 6.00 and he has proven to be rather hittable thus far with 16 hits allowed in 14.1 innings of work.Rochester Red Wings (Twins)
No, this is not an update on international baseball activities, but it is an update of the much more local Triple-A International League. Three weeks into the baseball season and it is time to see just how close some of the closest players to the Majors actually are.
Buffalo Bisons (Blue Jays)
Marcus Stroman is making a strong bid for promotion. Three starts in, Stroman has allowed two earned runs and struck out 21 in 15.1 innings of work (all stats through Sunday), walking only three while keeping the ball on the ground exceptionally well. The righty owns multiple-plus pitches and has weapons to face down lefties with a good cutter and at least average changeup.
Former Jays’ rotation members are not fairing as well. Kyle Drabek has been awful in his return from TJS, allowing 23 hits and five home runs in 14.0 innings of work. The command just is not where it used to be. Similarly, former rotation mainstay Ricky Romero has walked (8) more batters than he has struck out in 10 innings of work. Don’t look for any help here.
The hitters are mostly journeymen. First baseman Dan Johnson continues to produce in the Minors with a .286/.446/.531 line. At 34, he’s not likely to receive any more extended looks though.
Charlotte Knights (White Sox)
For those waiting for the beginning of the Matt Davidson era, you’ll have to continue to wait. The slugger has struck out over 50 percent of the time and is hitting .203 at the moment. Davidson has never been expected to be much more than a .240s hitter with a decent OBP, but he has to at least make some contact in order to be in the Majors.
Columbus Clippers (Indians)
Jesus Aguilar is tearing things up, batting .370/.433/.670. Back in February, I expressed appreciation for the righty’s developing plate discipline and all- around game but wondered when or if the power would come. Well, it appears to have arrived. Keep a close eye on the DH production of the Indians. An opportunity could easily arise.
Jose Ramirez is playing well in Triple-A, but has no place to play in the Majors – blocked by both Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera. Ramirez has been flashing some speed and pop, but is still most likely on the utility man path to the Majors.
Trevor Bauer received a spot start to pitch for the Indians in a double-header and shined. In 18 combined innings, the righty has now struck out 26 batters while allowing 11 hits and walking just five. All that effort to fix his mechanics looks to have worked, making Bauer still a long-term middle to upper end of the rotation possibility. Both he and Aguilar should be on keeper league rosters if possible depending on your league's rules.
Durham Bulls (Rays)
Brad Boxberger was unable to make the opening day bullpen but is already making a case for a call-up with 13 strikeouts and two walks allowed in 6.2 IP. The hard-thrower very much has at least set-up man potential.
Off-season acquisition Nate Karns may soon be making a role change that has been long expected. The big righty is a power pitcher, but he has a history of command issues and has never been able to develop a good off-speed offering. Despite a 12.1 K/9, Karns owns an ERA approaching 6.00 over his first four starts thanks in large part to a 6.1 BB/9. Like Boxberger, Karns could be a dominant bullpen arm, so don’t write him off yet.
Enny Romero will be amongst those first in line to claim a rotation spot this season, but he’ll have to perform better to warrant use in fantasy leagues. Control issues are still a problem (4.4 BB/9). The lefty could end up in the bullpen like Karns, but to his credit has three to four pitches of average to plus potential that should give him a somewhat longer look in the Triple-A and perhaps MLB rotations.
Gwinnett Braves (Braves)
Over in Gwinnett County, Christian Bethancourt is not doing much to push his way into the job Brian McCann vacated. In fact, the righty is barely crossing the Mendoza line while striking out nearly a third of the time. Fortunately, this is out of character for the 22-year-old as someone who has made contact roughly 85% of the time each of the past two seasons. That said, Bethancourt does have a history of being overly aggressive at the plate, owning a career walk rate of under 4%. The righty’s defense will surely get him to the Majors in time and it's possible he may yet end up a .260s or better hitter with 12-15 home run potential, but be prepared for streak hitting and wild fluctuations in that batting average mark given his approach.
Indianapolis Indians (Pirates)
Gregory Polanco is quite possibly the best hitting prospect in all of baseball at the moment and at the very least is one of the most exciting as a potential 20-30 HR/SB player with the contact skills to be a .300-plus threat as well. So far, Polanco has hit .406/.449/.625 while making contact 90% of the time while Travis Snider is doing little at the plate. The 22-year-old could be up before June is out, if not sooner.
This week, we continue our focus on some of the lesser known rookies who should be on your radar this season.
Some of the more intriguing options come from the pen. I already discussed Daniel Webb as a potential closer candidate, but there are indeed other options out there. 26-year-old former top starting pitching prospect Dellin Betances has emerged as a reliever with the Yankees. The huge 6’8", 260 pounder throws regularly in the mid-nineties with a plus cut fastball and solid slider. Control and command have always been elusive for him, but if you keep striking out batters at a rate of 16.6 per nine innings, it doesn’t matter too much if you walk about 4.
Moving across town, the Mets bullpen is once again in shambles. Jose Valverde is actually pitching fairly well, but he is not the dominant flame-thrower of his youth. Enter Gonzalez Germen, who received a few cups of coffee last season. Unlike Betances, Germen has never been a top prospect, but like Betances, he moved to relief and has found success in that role since making the full-time conversion in Triple-A last season. He’s now throwing 93 mph and has shown a quality changeup and slider to boot. Gonzalez has been a successful strike thrower throughout his minor league career and has translated that skill to the Majors too. One significant caveat, however, are fly balls. So far, German has shown extreme fly-ball tendencies (56% of the time) over a tiny sample and 40% last year. The righty is most likely destined for middle relief or setup work, but this is an organization that could easily have openings.
Vic Black was supposed to have been the sleeper as the Mets’ potential closer. Instead, the righty failed to make the big league roster out of spring training. Acquired in the Marlon Byrd deal, Black throws in the upper nineties and has a nasty fastball/slider combination, but like many young throwers, he has trouble commanding it. So now Black is back in Triple-A working on it as the Las Vegas closer. The former Pirate should be up and down all season long with the big club, but given an up and down history, he is far from a safe bet to even be a consistent major league setup man, let alone a closer.
Staying in the NL, Chris Withrow has been missing bats to the tune of a 15.4 K/9. Like Germen, Withrow converted from starting last season and has done so with success, striking out well over a batter per inning at each stop he’s made since. The former first-round pick is blessed with a plus fastball/slider combination and is throwing strikes, but it remains to be seen if he can continue to do that over a larger sample.
Over in the batter’s box, we have Robinson Chirinos. The injury to Geovany Soto and the inability of J.P. Arencibia to make contact could give the former Ray an opportunity. The righty is a bit long in the tooth for a rookie at 29, but he has always been something of a personal favorite. Chirinos’ most notable skill has always been his plate discipline, regularly walking as often or more often than he has struck out throughout his minor league career. The former Cub combines that with high single-digit home run power potential and is worthy of note in OBP leagues. When he was with the Rays, it looked like John Jaso and Chirinos could form an ideal platoon. Thus far, Chirinos has yet to translate his contact skills to the Majors and as such, he has failed to stick. He might be a quadruple-A player and this is likely his last chance at getting an extended shot in the Majors. Keep in mind that the Rangers do have a few veterans at Triple-A in the form of Chris Gimenez and Chris Snyder. Neither create excitement, but they are available options that could deny Chirinos a long look. While we’re talking about Rangers' minor league catchers, I’ll give a quick update on top prospect Jorge Alfaro. Alfaro has premium power potential and actually runs well for a catcher to boot, making him one of the more intriguing prospects in the game. This year, he was advanced to A+ ball. So far, there is not much to report given a 38 plate appearance sample, but the early results have not been pretty with a 32% strikeout rate. I continue to worry, despite Alfaro’s excellent bat speed and power, that his overly aggressive approach from the right-hand side could lead him to have a career more similar to J.P. Arencibia than anything else.
Maladroit Middle Infield
The Jays just lost Maicer Izturis for 4-6 monthswith a torn UCL, forcing them to utilize Ryan Goins almost every day. Goins has struck out nearly a third of the time and most recently was a .250s hitter in Triple-A with gap power and no speed or exciting defensive skills to speak of. With glove-only Jonathan Diaz seeing the bulk of the time at shortstop while Jose Reyes is out, that leaves Chris Getz as the next most likely option to receive a call-up. So yes, the Blue Jays long term solution to second base currently is not in the organization.
One week into the season and there are 29 rookie batters and 48 rookie pitchers who have been or are still on MLB rosters. Sample sizes at this point are rather tiny, but it is important to note some of the players receiving a significant amount of playing time and determine their ability to stay in the lineup or even on the roster.
Eye of the Needle
The Mariners are carrying Abraham Almonte, Stefen Romero and James Paxton. Paxton is the most likely member of this trio to remain in the Majors. The hard-throwing lefty had already asserted his ability to miss bats and has worked hard to improve his control. He’s mostly a two-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on his fastball, and it will be interesting to see how batters adjust as the season progresses. Almonte currently holds down the starting centerfield gig and has little internal organizational competition for the job. The small switch-hitter has mostly been viewed as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but he does own plus-speed skills, has a long history of drawing walks and possesses doubles power. Almonte’s strikeout rates have varied up and down over the years, but once comfortable at a level of play, he has demonstrated an ability to make contact about 84% of the time. There is enough skill and talent here to stick, and Almonte should be taken quite seriously by AL-only and mixed leaguers as a speed source. Romero got the nod to win a bench job as the Mariners would rather Nick Franklin play every day in the minor leagues so they can continue to showcase him as trade bait. Romero is an aggressive hitter with low-single digits home run power, but he is a sub-par defensive second baseman and lacks the tools expected of a corner outfielder.
Chicago Hot Corner
Mike Olt claimed the starting third base job for the Cubs. The former Ranger prospect acquired in the Matt Garza deal remains well regarded for his patience and 20-plus home run power potential. Olt, however, is a right-handed batter who strikes out about a quarter of the time and is not someone who is likely to eclipse a .250 batting average with any frequency. The 25-year-old has been on base just once, via a home run, over his first 13 plate appearances. This comes after an injury-abbreviated season that saw Olt struggle at the Triple-A affiliates of two different organizations. If he can at least hit .230, Olt could still produce an acceptable starter’s OBP, but that is a big if at the moment. Keep in mind that the presence of Christian Villanueva in Triple-A and first-round pick Kris Byrant in Double-A means Olt may end up on a short leash should one or both of those two perform well.
Yangervis Solarte has played for the Twins and the Rangers without a whiff of MLB air despite playing each of the past two seasons at Triple-A Oklahoma. A strong spring and a need for infield bats won the 26-year-old a bench job with the Yankees. The 5’11” switch-hitter has a fairly disciplined and contact oriented plate approach, meaning he may not walk much, but he sees quite a few pitches and puts the ball in play. To back that up, Solarte has reached double-digits in homers in each of the past two seasons, albeit under favorable hitting conditions. The former Twin still profiles best as a utility guy, filling in at third base and second base, but he has enough skill to hit for average and manage a single-digit home run output. Given that this roster contains an aging cast, there may be plenty of opportunities for Solarte to receive playing time over the course of the season, making him a very reasonable addition in deep AL-only leagues.
Boston Bee Party
Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. receive most of the attention in Boston, but Brandon Workman deserves a mention as well. A starter throughout his minor league career, Workman made the Sox as a reliever. The former second-round pick has a plus fastball/curveball, cut-fastball and a change. His sinker allows him to keep the ball on the ground with high frequency as well. He’s a sleeper in the Red Sox bullpen right now as someone with enough stuff to be a setup man or as someone who could slip into the rotation and become a viable #3 or #4 starter.
You Can’t Steal First
Billy Hamilton is off to a rather rough start, striking out nearly half the time over the first three games of the season, and he was subsequently benched for two games over the weekend before getting into Monday's game and actually managing a double and a run scored. The sample size is of course very tiny and conclusions cannot be drawn from it, but Hamilton will need to demonstrate some on-base skills and some ability to make contact. Given a true “80” speed and almost non-existent power, the Willy Mays Hays doctrine applies in Hamilton’s case. He needs to put the ball in play and on the ground with high frequency to generate infield hits. Unfortuantely, Hamilton is not a Juan Pierre/Ichiro type who makes extremely high contact and can hit for a high average and produce starter-worthy on-base numbers. Instead of being a 90%, if not 95% of the time contact hitter, Hamilton is more of a 80% to 82% of the time contact hitter. So while Hamilton’s speed makes him extremely valuable for fantasy players, his probable long-term outcome is as the next Rajai Davis and not the next Ricky Henderson or even the next Vince Coleman.