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DownloadYou know the stereotype, all the number crunchers are geeks that live in their parent’s basement. And I admit, in a lot of respects, I fit the mold pretty well. Wear glasses? Check. Heavy set? Check. Live in parent’s basement? Well, not quite.
It has been an interesting couple of years for your humble pundit. As some of you know, I have spent a goodly portion of the past couple of years serving as caregiver for my Dad who passed away last fall due to complications from Alzheimer’s disease. I had been living with him since 1997 when I moved back into the house in which I grew up for what was supposed to be a six month stay, following his triple bypass. As fate would have it, not long thereafter, I got a job about 20 minutes away, so six months became permanent. Heck, the food was pretty good, the rent was reasonable and the company was not bad either.
Fast forward to September 2010 and my family and I settled Dad into an assisted living facility. The plan was to spend the winter getting the house ready for sale, as the proceeds were going to cover the expenses at the facility. Selling a house in New England over the winter is a bit difficult. I believe it was sometime in December I was going through some papers when I happened upon a quote to have the underground oil tank removed. We had done some major renovations five years previous and I was under the impression this was already done, but since we were required by law to have it done before selling, I thought it would be best to check. Lo and behold, it was never done.
Because I am even writing this, you know what is coming next. The excavator starts digging and the Geologist looks at me and says “uh oh, smell that?” Yup, the tank has been leaking – for years and years. By the time all was said and done, just about the entire front yard and a decent portion of the side yard was either cleaned of the contaminated soil or bioremediated. The job began in May and the new lawn and driveway were put in the last week of October. The good news, if there is such a thing in an instance like this, is that it was covered by insurance. But for practical purposes, the sale of the house was delayed, not to mention it was costing me a whole lot more to live there than it would have if I could have moved out.
Intertwined in all this is the fact I have been unemployed the whole time. A couple of weeks ago, my family and I talked with the Realtor and he told us he would be able to sell the house faster if it were completely empty. So my sister, brother-in-law and their family extended me the invitation to move into their basement. Well, the food is pretty good, the rent is reasonable and the company is not bad either, so I am now the geek that lives in my sister’s basement.
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I thought I would take just a little time now to outline what I will be doing for the site this season. While I will still be writing twice a week, I have decided to alternate between my two regular features, Under the Microscope and Chance Favors the Prepared Mind on Tuesday while adding a feature I have long wanted to do and have in fact started and stopped on a few occasions, and that is this stream of conscious effort I call Organized Chaos.
The site is thrilled to have extended our relationship with KFFL, which means you will continue to have access to their wonderful news feed directly from here. Lawr has re-upped his entertaining Tumbling Dice column while I am trying something new this year. Instead of the Mailbag, I am going to write Lord Zola’s Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. My knights will consist of the entire Mastersball staff plus our friends Tim Heaney and Nick Minnix from KFFL as well as some invited guests.
In addition, I have been contacted to do some freelance work for ESPN, in part to backfill the responsibilities of the Tampa Bay Rays newest scout, none other than original Mastersball founder Jason Grey.
Finally, I have been hard at work preparing the content for the Platinum subscribers. New to the service this season are a series of Excel based tools that really aid in your player analysis as well as improvements to our draft software, MastersDraft.{jcomments on}
As some of you know, my father, Leonard Zola, was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease about three years ago. I lived with him until we settled him into a long-term care facility in September of last year. Last Saturday night, he passed away. The end was a surprise but not unexpected. He went peacefully, in his mind doing something he loved so his family and friends can take solace in the fact that while we know he was suffering, he was not entirely aware of his condition.
In a weird way, this is sort of a blessing of Alzheimer’s disease as the afflicted is in their own little world, which, in a moment-to-moment basis, seems normal. In fact, the true essence of a person is often enlightened in such a state. My Dad spent the majority of his adult life either in broadcasting or in endeavors related to broadcasting. For longer than that, he was a news junkie, reading every newspaper cover to cover. This was back in the day when there were multiple papers in town as well as multiple editions. In fact, my first hint there was something wrong with him was when he would go out at three in the morning to pick up the newspaper. Reading the paper and news in general was just a part of him.
A little over ten years ago, mostly as a means to keep busy, my Dad founded what he called The Media Gang, a roster of retired and veteran participants in Boston/New England Media, Arts, and related fields. He organized bi-yearly luncheons and would send out monthly newsletters, at first by regular mail and then electronically as more members familiarized themselves with e-mail. He would include announcements and stories pertaining to Media Gang members as well as preparing a review of the luncheons, replete with pictures and anecdotes of the festivities.
At its peak, there were over 1500 active members of The Media Gang, half of whom would attend at least one luncheon a year. If my work schedule permitted, I would attend as well and always marveled at how everyone in the room was, for lack of a better word, an equal. Boston is a major media market and there were some well known personalities, most local but some national as well. But on luncheon day, there was just a room full of friends, many of whom had fallen out of touch. People were just as happy to see the behind the scenes technician as they were to see the anchorperson or host that started in Boston and went on to one of the major networks. My Dad was always reticent to accept the thanks and gratitude the members bestowed upon him. Perhaps, deep down, he realized how special his actions were and how much they meant to others, but he never showed it. To wit, at the last couple of luncheons after he was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s, he made a point of reminding everyone he was not actually the original founder; that he took over from another gentleman and my Dad was almost embarrassed to be perceived as the founder. The truth is, the idea may have been borne elsewhere, but my Dad nurtured it, fed it and was the sole reason it grew.
In September of 2009, Leonard Zola was honored for his efforts in broadcasting, but mostly for the blood, sweat and sometimes tears he poured into The Media Gang when he was inducted into the Massachusetts Broadcaster’s Hall of Fame. Even though he was a year into his affliction, he was still completely able to appreciate the honor. I am comfortable speaking for him when I say that other than the times he spent reading to, playing with or just being Zayde to his four wonderful grandchildren and three grandpuppies, the induction to the MBHOF was the most cherished moment of the latter phase of his joyous life. For those so inclined, here is a link to his biography that accompanied his induction: Len Zola.
Earlier, I mentioned that my Dad passed doing something he loved and also that Alzheimer’s can bring out the true essence of the individual. When my sister was visiting our Dad the afternoon of the day he ultimately passed, she was sure that in his sleep, he was broadcasting. She could only hear him mumbling, but the intonation and speech pattern was unmistakable -- he was broadcasting. Not only that, one of the nurses told me that earlier, while touching to one of the tubes on his chest with one hand and pointing to the monitor tracking his vitals with the other, he asked that she turn his microphone up so he could hear himself.
Dad, we’ll all miss you. Do me a favor please and tell Mom we all said hi and miss her too, but don’t interrupt her Mahjong game.{jcomments on}
Click HERE for final 2010 pitching values.{jcomments on}
Click HERE for the final 2010 hitting values. They are presented for 12 and 15 team mixed and single leagues. AL uses 12 teams with the NL using 13 teams. The designation "lose" means you lose the player if he moves to the other league, while "keep" means you, um, keep him. All leagues use a $260 budget. Hitting is 14 roster spots composed of 2-C, 1-1b, 1-2b, 1-3b, 1-ss, 1-1b/3b, 1-2b/ss, 5-of and 1-ut. NL uses 10 pitchers, everything else 9. The hit:pitch split for 4x4 is 67:33 and for 5x5 it is 69:31.
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I know there are still some games to be played but I cannot help but begin to think about how wild next year is going to be. Projection systems are going to be tested big-time. Long-time draft strategies are going to be revamped. There are going to be more self-struggles between head and heart than in any season of recent memory. Granted, each year brings new challenges, but 2011 looks to be equipped with a plethora. And yes, I know what plethora means. Let us take a look at some of the reasons.
LACK OF GROWTH IN EARLY ROUND PLAYERS: I do an annual study that consistently demonstrates that 70% of players regress one year to the next. But even with that as a backdrop, the demise of some early round picks, especially those that should still be in a growth phase will test projection systems and then challenge you to believe the numbers, which will no doubt predict a bounceback for several players. Some examples are Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Pablo Sandoval, Joe Mauer and to a lesser extent, Prince Fielder and even Ryan Howard.
CARLOS GONZALEZ: Wow, what a season. I’ll save the analysis for a later date, but suffice it to say, Gonzalez makes a great subject for a point-counterpoint argument. For every positive aspect of his game, of which there are many, you can come up with a reason to exhibit some pause. But wow, what a season.
WHITHER SCARCITY?: What a year for the upper-level middle infielders. Talk about serious disappointment, especially for those that bought into our draft strategy of targeting a 2B and SS with two of your first three picks. Let us go down the list; Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins and Brandon Phillips all failed to meet expectations. And actually, neither did Hanley Ramirez and it took a surreal stretch from Troy Tulowitski to spare his presence as well. Will this defray those favoring picking the scarce middle infield early? Sometimes it is not the strategy nor the execution, but just dumb luck that shapes the results. And what about Robinson Cano? Chances are his value will absolutely soar in reaction to the struggles of his middle infield brethren.
THE NEXT BIG THING: With due respect to Jason Heyward and his reasonable debut campaign, with the recent trials and tribulations of Matt Wieters and Stephen Strasburg finally teach us to temper expectations? I’ll even include Tommy Hanson as an example of a youngster with extremely lofty expectations with a limited track record. It may be wise to keep this in mind when considering Mat Latos and Buster Posey next season.
BACK TO WAITING ON STARTING PITCHING? Over the past couple of seasons, a few more starters have crept into the early rounds of a draft. Will the seasons twirled by Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke have an avalanche effect and knock down the ADP of the likes of CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, John Lester, Adam Wainwright and Cliff Lee or will Lincecum and Greinke drop while the others maintain?
ARE THERE ANY SURE-FIRE CLOSERS? Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton both exhibited chinks in their armor. Mariano Rivera will be a year older and even more susceptible to the nagging injuries that tempered his 2010 campaign. Can a Kansas City Royals closer really be the top choice on the board? It is going to be extremely interesting to follow the plight of closers next season as the second tier of closers is going to be extremely plush.
What fascinates me the most is the array of underlying factors that will impact each of these decisions. As alluded to initially, some will be swayed by projections, some more game theory influenced and some shaped by your personal philosophy. Next season is going to feature an incredible balance of player projection and game theory, more so than in any season I can remember.{jcomments on}