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DownloadAssorted Rants, Rumblings and Ruminations from the Mind of a “So-Called” Expert
Here are some thoughts while I decompress after staring at spreadsheets for 12 hours a day since November 1.
The Founding Fathers had it right – the best time to conduct your fantasy draft or auction is the weekend after opening day, with only those on 25-man rosters eligible for pick-up. I know, with the number of fantasy enthusiasts playing the game this is logistically impossible, but it provides the truest and cleanest opening of the season. This game should be about how we feel each player will perform, how we value that performance and how we assemble our rosters with the most potential to earn points. Granted, how we feel each player will perform encompasses a playing time component, but the guess is that much more educated after 25-man rosters are established. This may seem trite, but after spending two days a week since December 1 trying to assign playing time, doing it KNOWING the 25-man roster was so much easier.
While I am not rooting against any players, I admit I am sort of hoping a couple of players struggle a bit this season. It is not about wanting to be right; it is about trusting the system and philosophy that I want to be right. Emilio Bonifacio may be a great guy, but I think he is a complete mirage and on behalf of my system, I hope he struggles. Of course if he does, this does not mean the system is right, but it will make me feel better.
Ditto for Brett Lawrie and to a lesser extent Eric Hosmer and Desmond Jennings. Baseball is supposed to be hard to play and we are not supposed to expect that much out of rookies and sophomores. These guys are being drafted ahead of established veterans. I understand risk and upside, but the man-crush on this troika has been a bit over the top. As a fan, I hope these guys kick-ass. As a fantasy analyst – not so much.
This time last year, Matt Holliday was considered a rock, one of the most reliable players in the game. Then he had an appendectomy and a moth fly into his ear and he is suddenly a health risk? OK, he also had a quad injury that cost him some time, but if it were not for those other two flukes, Holliday would not be discounted. Heck, it took us three years to finally downgrade both Nelson Cruz and Kevin Youkilis based on their health history. How come everyone was so quick to lump Holliday into that group?
I know I am not the only one to say this so let me just join the crowd that feels opening day felt so diluted this year.
If the dude on my radio is so good at investing in the stock market, why does he need to sell a book explaining his method? Why isn’t he just cleaning up on Wall Street? Ditto for the guy betting on games in Las Vegas.
I know it means absolutely diddly-squat, but yet I spent about 20 minutes checking the live standings of all my leagues after the LA-SD game ended last night. I was happy when my team was at or near the top of the standings and bummed when they were not. Admit it; I was not the only one.
I hesitate to include this since I oversee a couple of leagues and it may seem self-serving, but it is not. Sometime in the next week or so, shoot your commissioner a note thanking him or her for their getting your league good to go, they deserve it.
We’re not quite there yet, but we are close to the play-by-play guy screaming RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUN with a chorus of vuvuzelas blaring in the background when a guy crosses the plate.
Yes, Andrew Bailey is injury-prone and a health risk. But come on, his thumb injury was a complete fluke, not a reflection of his character.
Here is a question to all those saying Ryan Braun will struggle because his buddy Prince Fielder is no longer with him – exactly who did Matt Kemp have in the lineup last season?
Is it just me or has the majesty of a great throw from the outfield slowly disappearing?
With Passover falling on Easter Sunday, do Chinese restaurants even bother opening?{jcomments on}
First off real quick, I would like to extend a true heartfelt thank you to a few kind and generous individuals without whom I would not be able to write this review.
I spent the better part of Saturday afternoon in the basement, drafting what I hope is the grand champion of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). Of course there are 419 others with the same goal, but hey, at least my chances are better than hitting the Mega Millions drawing.
By means of quick review, 28 leagues with 15 teams each comprise the Main Event of the NFBC. There will be 28 league champions, then all 420 get lumped together and an overall winner is crowned and gets their picture taken with one of those really big checks, with $100,000 in the amount box.
I was assigned the 15th pick in the first round and was perfectly okay with that. While I would have preferred picking in the first two to start with either Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, I am not a fan of the second round inventory usually available to those picking in the first half of the first round, so if I did not pick first or second, my next desired area was thirteen to fifteen since there are sixteen or so players I would like to start my team with and I would be assured of getting two of them from the back end of the first.
Coming in to the draft, my plan was as usual: to strive for balance in terms of stats and positions so during the latter two-thirds of the festivities, I would be choosing the best player available and not chasing a position or a category. While I am by no means married to the average draft position (ADP) reports the NFBC provides based on its earlier drafts, I do use them to get a feel for the market value of certain players and when I can expect runs to occur.
The 15-hole has its advantages and disadvantages. One advantage is the possibility of players you really like falling to you at the 15/16 turn. Another is the ability to force runs on players, most likely closers, by doubling up at a position later in the draft. Personally, I happen to like picks close to the wheel as I will often choose the players in tandem as it helps me piece together the big picture. A major disadvantage is the strong possibility of missing out on a run, again, usually closers, as there are 28 players chosen between your picks when you are 15th.
When I was mocksterbating from the 15th hole (to mocksterbate is to do a mock draft by yourself), I came to the realization that something had to give. I don’t care who you are and how good a drafter you may be, after 10 picks, you are not going to have a thunderous offense, lights out starting pitching and shutdown closers. You may think you do, but you don’t. Unless you are drafting with a bunch of morons, if you go through the other 14 teams, each one will be better than you in one of the three areas. And if they are not, they tried too hard to be solid in all three and ended up mediocre instead. Please don’t get me wrong, I don’t mean to imply the draft is won in the first ten rounds, far from it. But the idea is to have a thunderous offense, lights out starting pitching and shutdown closers by the end of the 23rd, so what you do in the first ten sets you up for that. I came to the conclusion that you can draft an edge in two of the three areas, while you need to work hard to realize that edge in the third, unless you get extremely lucky.
The most likely means of getting lucky was to wait on closers and hope a couple of reliable stoppers slip, but the danger of that is as suggested, not having it happen and completely missing out on runs. And, while I know closers are constantly emerging during the season, those advising to troll for saves are overlooking a couple of important things: there will be others fishing and for every guy that emerges to save twenty games, there were twice as many that failed to hold the job. Not to mention, the impact closers have on your ERA and WHIP is more important now than a few years ago as the ratios categories are now more tightly bunched top to bottom and these in-season closers often have suspect peripherals. A such, I made the conscious decision to make sure I had to closers I really like by the end of round ten, even if I (hopefully) started the run.
Based on that, it was apparent my entire draft would be predicated by what I did at the 3/4 selection turn. As many of you know, my spring crusade has been to contradict those suggesting the smart strategy is to “wait on pitching.” However, I do not consider not taking an arm until the 5th round to be waiting on pitching. In the week leading up the draft, I was waffling between doubling up with stud starters at 3/4, taking one arm and one stick or eschewing hurlers all together and starting with four bats. Ultimately, I decided I would let the draft dictate my direction, but with the overriding thought that between hitting and pitching, it is easier to rely on the old axiom: bully hitting, manage pitching. I may get out of my comfort zone not taking a top-eight or so starting pitching, but it is easier to overcome that than make up offense.
With that as a backdrop, here is the team I will be taking into battle, with a brief description of the thought process at each pair of picks.
1/2 – Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria: Scarcity is so misunderstood in today’s landscape. I decided I was not going to get hung up at all on positions and leave potential stats on the table early by reaching for a middle infielder. My top remaining hitters were Fielder, who was #8 on my board and Longoria, #15. As it happens, I indeed had a better player fall to me, at least according to my rankings, though I am certain the ADP will have both right around that area.
3/4 – Hunter Pence and Brandon Phillips: I was all set to take Cole Hamels and Jered Weaver here, but Weaver was plucked two picks previous to my turns. I then thought about Hamels and Dan Haren, but ultimately fell back on bully hitting and manage pitching. Phillips may have been a reach based on ADP, but he was right where he should have been according to my numbers and I like Pence as an early round upside play.
5/6 – C.J. Wilson and James Shields: For a second I thought I was actually drafting with morons (he says tongue in cheek, this was a strong group) as Haren and Matt Cain kept falling, but alas, they were both selected before my turn so I took the two highest ranked guys on my cheat sheet. As an idea of how my earlier drafts have gone, Shields is my THIRD starter in several, now he is my co-anchor. This is my virgin experience owning Wilson. The more I look at his numbers, the warmer I am becoming to the Angels new starter. I think I have a decent shot at the target 400 K’s from my first two arms.
7/8 – Alex Avila and Jason Werth: This was a small risk as many closer runs occur in the next couple of rounds, but one I was willing to take as Craig Kimbrel was the only closer off the board thus far and it would take a TREMENDOUS run to lock me out. I wanted to draft a catcher at this spot, hoping for Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero but happily setting for Avila. Werth was strictly the proverbial value pick and someone I had identified as a likely selection since my rankings have him higher than the NFBC ADP.
9/10- Joel Hanrahan and Jason Motte: YAHTZEE!!! These names may not seem that sexy, but they profile perfectly for what I wanted – I consider then both secure in their jobs, they are minimal health risks and fan a goodly number of hitters. I really need the reliability because they are in effect helping me recoup some of that edge I lost by waiting a little bit for starters. To this point, only Kimbrel, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, John Axford and Jose Valverde were off the board. Hanrahan and Motte were my 4th and 5th ranked closers, so I was quite elated. And I would be even more ecstatic if this double dip forces a run.
11/12 – Anibal Sanchez and Neil Walker: I LOVE it when a plan comes together – of the 28 previous picks since my last one, a whopping 15 were closers! While I am not sure I took advantage, it did give me the opportunity to think long and hard about Sanchez, a guy completely off my radar as I usually have three quality starters at this point and am looking in other directions. Suffice it to say I saw enough in Sanchez to make him my SP3 and I think he has upside. Injury is a concern, but he has notched over 200 stanzas each of the past two seasons. Walker closed out my middle infield but I like his potential as a clean-up bat in an improving lineup and there were at least three shortstops I still liked available.
13/14 – Wilson Ramos and Gaby Sanchez: This was a combination of figuring if I passed on pitching at 3/4 I should probably make sure I keep the hitting edge along with there being no starters I liked here. Ramos is a guy I have picked a lot lately while Sanchez is solid and the last corner man before the injury risks top the lists.
15/16 – Alejandro De Aza and Justin Masterson: I need some speed, but did not want to do it at the complete expense of homers and De Aza has a shot at double digits albeit very low double digits. If Masterson can retain the gains he made versus lefties, he is a solid SP4.
17/18 – Ian Desmond and Ted Lilly: I really did not expect to end up with Desmond, figuring to get Marcos Scutaro or Zack Cozart. I played chicken with Scutaro and ultimately lost. Cozart is a bit of a wild card so I went with Desmond, who should provide excellent counting stats and I should be able to absorb his average, since he is my first player to really be deficient in the category relative to the position. I like the Lilly pick as a balance to the Masterson choice. Fly ball guys like Lilly have a better WHIP but worse ERA while the opposite is true for worm burners like Masterson, so overall my ERA and WHIP should stay in sync.
19/20 – Michael Brantley and Jeff Samardzija: Once it was announced Brantley would be atop the Tribe order, those extra plate appearances and stolen base opportunities vaulted him up my rankings several spots. This brings us to Samardzija. It is cliché, but he is a complete wild card with tremendous upside, which is something this staff needs. I am going to be throwing pitching darts all summer, why not start now?
21/22 – Dayan Viciedo and Nolan Reimold: Viciedo is a site favorite and Reimold is another wild card of sort, but again, hitting at the top of the order is enticing. I consider these spots somewhat fungible, but like the upside potential of both.
23/24 – Sean Rodriguez and Ty Wigginton: The NFBC allows Friday activations for hitters, so I like to have some multiple eligibility guys to afford some flexibility. Save catcher, I now have everything covered.
25/26 – Andrew Cashner and Jonny Venters: Remember that whole manage pitching thing? One way to do it is to deploy solid set up men with high strikeouts while you search for the emerging starter. And with Cashner, it doesn’t hurt that he is behind Huston Street, not known for his ability to avoid the disabled list.
27/28 – Kris Medlen and Mark Melancon: Medlen is an arm you want regardless of role and Melancon is the probable understudy of the American League’s version of Street in Andrew Bailey.
29/30 – Kyle Seager and Chris Narveson: Lawr is very high on Seager so this pick was an ode to my esteemed partner while Narveson is a guy whose underlying peripherals are promising and prescient of an increase in strikeouts.
C: Avila, Ramos |
1B/3B: Fielder, Longoria, Sanchez |
2B/SS: Phillips, Desmond, Walker |
OF: Pence, Werth, De Aza, Brantley, Viciedo |
UT: Reimold (S Rodriguez, Wigginton, Seager) |
SP: Wilson, Shields, A Sanchez, Masterson, Lilly, Samardzija (Narveson) |
RP: Hanrahan, Motte, Venters (Cashner, Medlen, Melancon) |
I’ll spare you the trouble.
Zola, your pitching sucks and your outfield ain’t so hot either.
I agree. But I also feel both areas can be addressed in-season and I have plenty of high K relievers to hold down the fort with respect to pitching, while the bats should be strong enough to get by until I can get one more quality stick in the lineup.{jcomments on}
Hey gang, sorry I missed Tuesday’s scheduled posting. This one’s going to be a little short as well, I am trying like the dickens to finish the bulk of the premium content by the weekend so we can focus on being as up to date on playing time situations as possible.
There are a couple of things I want to get off my chest, one is the continuation of the manner pitching is still being misread and the other is a bit of a rebirth of an older pet peeve that I have seen manifest a lot this drafting season.
With respect to pitching, the take home message is not going to be to draft Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander with your first three picks. Please keep that in mind as I reiterate this thought process.
The faux pas that is being bandied about everywhere is because MLB pitching is better than it used to be, fantasy pitching is better and deeper, therefore you can continue to wait until well into the draft to get your pitchers, and perhaps wait even longer because the inventory is so deep. I won’t sugar coat it, that is plain and simply horrible advice doled out by “so-called” experts (oh yes I did just write that) who are not doing their homework and following the herd, unfortunately the herd in this case is stuck in the mid 2000’s when waiting on pitching was indeed the smart manner to approach things.
Here’s the deal – VALUE IS RELATIVE. Come October, the team with the best ERA and WHIP in your league is going to sport marks lower than the first place total than in previous seasons. The second place total will also be lower and it goes all the way down to the last place team. But here’s the kicker. The 20th best pitcher is still the 20th best pitcher. The 3oth best pitcher is still the 30th best pitcher and so on. The numbers of the 20th and 30th best hurler are superior to their counterpart from a few years ago, but the impact they have on your fantasy team is the same. The 40th best pitcher influences your ERA and WHIP exactly the same as the 40th best pitcher influenced it a few years ago. Does he have better stats? Yes, he does. Is he more valuable? No, he isn’t. The better stats are worth the same.
The second part of this rant deals with the difference between drafting cheap pitching and drafting pitching on the cheap. The reason for waiting on pitching back in the mid 2000’s had to do with the availability of GOOD PITCHING cheap. By good pitching, I mean GOOD FANTASY PITCHING. Presently, no one can dole out fantasy advice without using the words lucky or unlucky. While I have another issue with the misuse of that concept which I will save for another day, the point is, overall, the manner the fantasy populace evaluates pitching has improved by leaps and bounds the past few years. Most serious fantasy enthusiasts are able to recognize when a pitcher pitched better or worse than his peripherals and do not project future performance based solely on ERA and WHIP. The result is this is pitchers that used to be available late in the draft because their ERA was high the previous season due to misfortune with their BABIP, HR/FB or LOB% are projected with a regressed ERA and are no longer available later in the draft.
Previously, if you waited and knew what you were doing, you could draft good pitching on the cheap. Now if you wait, all you will do is draft cheap pitching. This dynamic occurs throughout the draft. The SP1 you used to get in the 8th round is going in the 3rd or 4th. The high skilled SP2 and SP3 you used to get in the teens are no longer there. The 15th round is knocking and James Shields is no longer at the door. The end game gems you used to snag are now going in the teens and the sweet reserve arms you picked up are now end game fodder.
I have two challenges for those still refusing to believe me. First, next time someone advises you to wait on pitching, ask them what round they took their first pitcher in last season then ask them if they won? When they tell you they didn’t and start making excuses, interrupt them and ask them what round the winner drafted their first pitcher?
The second is to sit down and do a little exercise. Using last year’s league as a guide, find out what ERA and WHIP were necessary to finish 3rd or 4th in the category. This usually suffices to compete. Now assemble what you feel is the perfect staff to accomplish your goal, top to bottom, calculating the staff ERA and WHIP to make sure it is within range of your target. Now objectively determine where you need to draft those pitchers. Next, map out two different plans, one starting with a better pitcher as your SP1 and the other with a worse pitcher as your SP1 and determine what those staffs would have to look like to meet your goal. The point of this is not to demonstrate the staff with the worst SP1 can never meet the goal, it can. You will just have to focus on pitching for the next several rounds, completely ignoring hitting and picking from an inventory less reliable from the better pitchers. You see, that’s the part many are forgetting, or do not even realize. Pitching at the top is actually fairly reliable. At minimum, it is as reliable as top hitting. It used to be another reason to take hitting was its reliability. This gap has significantly narrowed if not disappeared. This is going to be a project I undertake, investigating this.
Anyway, back to the point, take a look at the three pitching staffs and decide which one is most likely to actually meet the goal at the end of the year in concert with what kind of offense you can put together. Maybe you still opt to wait on pitching and that is fine, but at least you did some evaluation and decided in your league, you could pull it off and not follow archaic advice spouted by people who advise what other people advise and do not do the research on their own to see what works and what does not.
My second little harangue deals with the notion of taking a player at a perceived scarce position because the drop-off to the next player at the position is larger than the drop-off at other positions. More often than not, those espousing this little ditty of advice pick out an arbitrary player and make a comparison like, “who would rather have, Green and Black or White and Brown?”
Here is my issue. The real question is “do you prefer your entire roster if you choose Green or White?” It is not a two on two comparison, but how your entire roster would have developed with one player versus the other. Who is to say you would have had to take the arbitrary player the person chose to make their argument work and not someone better?
Keep in mind the premise here is drafting a player with lower potential production over a better player, just because of the drop off in talent at the position of the lesser player. I have a little secret for you, some close. YOU ARE MAKING MORE PICKS BEFORE YOU WOULD HAVE TO DRAFT THIS ARBITRARY PLAYER DESIGNED TO MAKE THEIR POINT (yes, I am yelling). Trust me, at some point in the draft, a player at this weak position will be at or near the top of your cheat sheet. If you insist on doing the two by two comparison, this is point to make it, when you are drafting the player at the position. Keeping in mind that my contention is eventually this player will be available to you at value, this means the other players are of similar value, including those at the position you bypassed way back in round 1 or 2. Now, who do you prefer, a top first baseman better than a top shortstop then a shortstop as good as the available outfielders at the time or a top shortstop inferior to the top outfielder or first baseman and an outfielder on a par with the shortstops available at that time?
Just as the first rant will be misinterpreted as draft Halladay and Kershaw, this diatribe will turn into “Zola says take the best player available at all times, even if you fill your outfield, corner and utility by round eight." That’s not what I am saying. I am saying in the first round or two, do not leave stats on the table just to get a so-called scarce position filled. The delta between players at the top of a draft is pretty significant. This difference gets smaller and smaller as you transverse the snake. Once you get to the 4th round, the difference is nil, meaning you can now jump the shortstop over an outfielder and a first baseman, because they are fundamentally the same player.
Well, I guess it wasn’t so short after all. Thanks for indulging me{jcomments on}