Salient is an excellent design with a fresh approach for the ever-changing Web. Integrated with Gantry 5, it is infinitely customizable, incredibly powerful, and remarkably simple.
DownloadAssorted Rants, Rumblings and Ruminations from the Mind of a “So-Called” Expert
With the 2023 MLB season in the books, it's always fun to look back at the player's earnings. The FREE spreadsheet available via download has final earnings for
12-Team AL only and 12-team NL only, both 4x4 and 5x5, where you either KEEP players traded to the other league or LOSE them
12-Team Mixed
15-Team Mixed
I'm happy to address questions on the site form.
Look for an announcement regarding 2024 Mastersball soon. I will launch by November 1 (maybe earlier, we'll see).
I'm guessing this is out there already, with studies a lot more intense than what I'm about to present. That said, I ran some quick correlation studies on component average exit velocity (AEV) and component BABIP and thought I'd share the findings. Since it's too long for a tweet, I figured I'd dust off my old site column and post it here.
The impetus was writing a profile for Jeff McNeil as his Statcast levers are not favorable - at least they appeared wonky for such a consistent hitter.
The idea is learning how AEV on grounders (GB), fly balls (FB) and outfield line drives (OLD) affects their respective BABIP. I wanted a full season's worth of data, so I looked at 2018 and 2019. These make a good pair since the ball in 2019 incurred much less air resistance than 2018 and while it doesn't influence AEV, it could affect the outcomes.
I landed on 50 batted ball events (BBE) after running the data for several BBE. The number doesn't matter for this quick study since the goal is unearthing general trends to aid in profile writing as opposed to incorporation into my projection engine.
The study is straightforward. I (well, Excel) calculated the correlation coefficient between AEV and BABIP for all players with at least 50 BBE for each type of event. By means of reminder, perfect correlation is 1, perfect reverse correlation is -1 (this will be relevant) while a completely random relationship is 0.
Here are the findings:
BABIP | 2019 | 2018 |
GB | 0.28 | 0.26 |
FB | -0.13 | -0.11 |
OLD | 0.24 | 0.30 |
Intuitively, I expected the correlation to be stronger. Sure, it's positive, but there is a lot of wiggle room. Looking at the GB AEV and OLD AEV and assuming because it's low, a high BABIP will regress isn't as salient an argument as I perceived. Similarly, a high GB AEV and OLD AEV and a low BABIP may not manifest in a higher BABIP.
The fly ball data may surprise some, but based on prior research, it's not alarming. The small negative correlation is saying it's not always a bad thing to hit soft fly balls. These fall into the purgatory between the outfielders and the infielders. Better struck fly balls are the proverbial cans of corn.
One more correlation was conducted, examining the relationship between FB and OLD AEV and HR%. Don't worry, this one yielded the expected results:
HR% | 2019 | 2018 |
FB | 0.83 | 0.81 |
OLD | 0.51 | 0.48 |
Sure enough, elevating the ball with velocity correlates very well to homers. The OLD data incorporates batted balls with trajectories too low be classified as FB, but with too small a launch angle to clear the fence,
Again, there isn't anything earth-shattering here, but it does demonstrate AEV is much more relevant for power than average.
It’s pretty mind-blowing. For years, when the Tampa Bay Rays were overcoming the odds and fielding a competitive team on a minimal budget they were heralded as innovators. Some even considered them geniuses.
Now, when they’re on the precipice of winning it all, they’re ruining the game.
Really? It’s fine to be creative and just miss the playoffs or be eliminated early, but make it to the World Series and you’re scoundrels?
I just don’t get it.
Charlie Morton would never have been taken out in the good old days.
Well, back then, pitchers were able to cruise through the bottom of the order. In those days, bullpens weren’t stocked with arms throwing 95-mph with wicked breaking stuff.
The nerds are ruining the game. They ruin everything.
Yeah, like morphing a perfectly useful rotary phone into a hand-held rectangle capable of taking pictures, playing and recording videos, not to mention serving as a gateway to the Internet.
Those freaking nerds, who do they think they are?
The Rays are doing what is necessary to win, with analytics guiding their endeavor. There is nothing wrong with that. MLB isn’t the WWE where the E stands for entertainment. Kevin Cash’s job is not to be entertaining; it’s to win baseball games. If a computer printout aids pitching moves, lineup changes and defensive positioning, he’d be making a mistake to not heed the directions.
Things change and evolve. Instead of complaining, learn to understand the reasons. Doing so usually leads to appreciation of the brave new world, not condemnation.
The problem is this takes effort. The lazy way is so much easier.
The media would rather wax poetic about when they were growing up. The younger generation prefers to fire up all the wireless rectangles the nerds invented.
It really is unfortunate because the impetus behind Tampa Bay’s innovation, along with other organizations is enlightening, and fascinating. It’s too bad the playoff announcers aren’t explaining the reasons behind the innovation. It’s a shame writers are crying in their oatmeal instead of edifying readers.
But then, educating the audience requires doing your homework, or relying on others more knowledgeable to disseminate the information.
At some point, there simply must be a generational transition with analytics respected and not chastised. Instead of being considered innovative, it will be obvious.
To be fair, the paradigm shift is underway. My fear is I won’t be around when it’s commonplace and not alternative.
Still, that’s my ray of hope. Understand and appreciate evolution; don’t categorically dismiss it as destructive.
Something to note is some juxtapose the Rays approach to the league-wide trend of fewer balls being put in play. To be fair, the two overlap since many of Tampa Bay’s methods work because of the current landscape, but they aren’t to blame for them.
More strikeouts, more homers and fewer balls in play are independent of what Tampa Bay has done. That said. To blindly label the trend as ruining the game without comprehending why this is more conducive to winning is another example of laziness.
But that’s a rant for another day.
Go Rays!