I was talking with my Wednesday golf partner, Brent Harrah, while we were playing a month back. We were discussing the OJ Simpson docudrama that was airing on TV, and Brent and his wife were digging it, while my wife, Diane and I thought it was beyond boring.
But, what I discovered with Brent, and then talking to a few other folks his age (he is 31 to my 63) is that most of the next generation liked the show a lot because they sort of remember the Bronco chase and ensuing trial of the century, but never really knew the details. Obviously, this was a different experience than that of Diane and me, who watched the whole messy affair on television.
So, cut to my Scoresheet team, where my mate in the Murphy League and RotoWire brainchild Jeff Erickson found himself with a treasured surplus of shortstops. Erickson had Xander Bogaerts and Corey Seager on his roster, and since we were approaching freeze list Friday, he offered a shortstop around for something “significant.”
I made an offer, but in the end, Jeff was able to swap off Seager for Chris Sale, which struck me as lopsided, and whereas I am never one to protest a trade, I am more than vocal with my opinion.
I asked Jeff about it—trading arguably the best pitcher in the American League for a guy with less than 150 at-bats—and he said this was commensurate with other offers he received, and even noted a few to me.
This struck the slowly turning into an old man (#iambecomingabesimpson) part of me, and over the LABR and then Tout Wars weekends, I found myself asking a number of my industry mates, both from my generation, and then Brent’s, what they thought about the swap.
The most cogent and interesting response was actually from my Mastersball mate, Brian Walton (of my generation), who noted “If they were both in an auction today, they would probably fetch just about the same price.” Brian also noted—at least before Seager’s spring injury—that both players would likely be gone by the start of Round 4. Both of which are probably true.
But, aside from that lovely theorem, I found an interesting generation gap in talking to my industry counterparts, and I think that points to changes in the way fantasy ball is played, in that younger players—say those of Brent’s generation—are much more willing to give up the potential safety of Sale in favor of the potential, despite the risk, of Seager.
The more I discussed with my mates, the more I wondered, and the more I wondered, thoughts about the evolution of fantasy baseball and more important, baseball on the field cropped up. As a result, I put together some numbers and questions to both understand and contextualize my colleague’s words and opinions, and see just how different the game is viewed at its core with respect to said risk management.
When I started playing rotisserie baseball, in 1988, there were no reserve lists with prospects or Ultra Leagues. In fact, in my home league, when we finished our auction in 1989, we allowed for a reserve list for a first time, and I made my top pick Ben McDonald, the then LSU #1 prospect whom it was speculated would be signed by the Orioles (it was an AL-only league, so I took the gamble).
That move initially rankled my league mates, who protested that we could not draft amateurs, although when I pointed out the rules said nothing about from where reserve picks could be drawn, they dropped the protest and started nabbing prospects themselves.
I lucked out that year, as McDonald was drafted by the Orioles, and got an August call-up even, but that was not the norm as even then most prospects still got two or three years in the minors before they even got a look at live major league hitters or pitchers.
And, with that, it took a while as players might make the roster, but another year or two and then a starting gig would come. The bottom line was in a game where at-bats and innings were everything—and success within that construct was critical—rookies in general made bad choices when building a fantasy roster and reserve list to compete in the current year (though as Ultra Leagues evolved, selecting younger crapshoot players has become beyond the norm).
That was the rule of thumb for a decade, and then Albert Pujols appeared in 2001 and showed us that sometimes a player is indeed so advanced at a young age, he can just do it all from the get go.
Pujols—who was not a first rounder when he came up, but did open the door to the possibilities—whet the appetites of fantasy players all over with the promise of guys like Josh Hamilton and Jeremy Hermida and Gordon Beckham and Sean Burroughs and other seemingly first round killer MLB June draft selections whom it was hoped could replicate Pujols’ success.
In thinking about this, about the fact that fantasy baseball is now a pretty well-established 25-years old, and that the generation who knew about OJ, but did not remember the details, it occurred to me that there is a gap that has appeared between those Boomers who started playing before the internet and smart phones, and the GenXer’s who have grown up with commissioner services, ADP, and the promise of another Mike Trout and Jose Fernandez. Note: A lot of those participating are too old to be GenX’ers, and not quite old enough to be Boomers. They are sort of Tweeners, but for the purposes of this piece, I lumped the generations together.
At the suggestion of Larry Schechter, six-time Tout Wars champ and author of Winning Fantasy Baseball, I ran a poll of the Touts to get a little data and see if my notions of differences in generational strategy had any validity. So, I sent a simple poll to the Touts (of which there are about 70 when we consider all five leagues) asking whether they would make the Seager/Sale swap. I got 32 responses to three questions:
In support of the question, I noted that the Scoresheet League, in which the trade was made, allows for eight soft keepers plus one rookie we can protect in the 19th round. For the uninitiated, a soft eight—in the 24-team Murphy League—allows owners to freeze less than the limit of eight. Those teams who choose that path then draft out of the free agent pool and throw backs until all 24 teams have eight players, and then the draft proper begins. And, part of the value in swapping Seager was that the shortstop still qualified as a rookie, and as such could be carried as a 19th round pick. That means the team owning the rights to the young Dodger could freeze him as a ninth Major Leaguer, buried in Round 19.
Scoresheet is a head-to-head format, and is a keeper league, so obviously trading for this year as opposed to building for the future would always be a consideration. But for the purposes of my questions, I asked folks to think in that context of Brian Walton. Was the talent swap even in their opinion, and bearing that in mind, was it worth the risk?
Of the 32 respondents, 12 said it was a good trade, though only 10 said they would make the swap, while the age range ran from 28 to 65 years of age.
And, within those constructs, the average age of those who thought the deal was good and they would make it is 38.15 while the average age of those who would not make the trade is 56.33, meaning those of Brent’s “I just missed OJ” generation are much more willing than those of my “I am drinking more Maalox every day crowd” to take the plunge.
So, then the question(s) become(s) what had brought on this change in basic strategy from those of us who knew OJ Simpson first as a 2002-yard running back with the Bills, while the GenX’ers see him in an orange jump suit?
I think there are a couple of reasons for this change.
First, the number of rookies who are afforded an opportunity to play—and now start—at the Major League level has changed dramatically since my first year of rotoball in 1988. For, if we review the chart below--with numbers culled from Baseball-Reference--we can see how the number of rookies making an MLB debut has increased from my first year of play to last season.
While determining what years would be representative, I did indeed start with 1988 and then selected a few other seasons to compare and contrast. The seasons and thoughts are below.
|Year||Hitters Debuting||Pitchers Debuting||Total|
In looking at those numbers, the obvious point of interest is that 150 more players tossed their first pitch or swung the bat for the first time in 2015 as opposed to 1988. We do have to take into account the roster expansions of 1993 (adding the Rockies and Marlins) and again in 1998 (with the addition of the Diamondbacks and Rays) creating the present 30-team model.
Interestingly, the big jump did seem to occur with the 1993 expansion, which pushed the number of debuts over the 300 mark for the first time, while oddly just five years later, and with the addition of those final two squads, the gross number barely ticked up.
Over the past five years, however, the number of debuts has jumped by 20% of the total pool, a huge increase in players and opportunities.
Furthermore, when we think to last year and Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Nola, and of course Corey Seager, it is hard to remember one season that included so many potentially prominent and dominant first-year players.
So, certainly the player pool, and more important, the reserve lists like that of Jeff Erickson, present the opportunity that make that risky play of swapping a solid starter for some serious everyday counting statistics.
So, what do we conclude from all this?
Before attempting to address this, I believe there is one more factor influencing the GenX’ers and their apparent willingness to part with a steady star for a potential one.
My parents were of the post-depression generation that told us to go to college, get a job, stay with the company for 40 years and retire with a watch and a nice pension. But, keep life safe and secure, always knowing what lies ahead.
That worked largely for Boomers, but for the next generation, who grew up as clever and ubiquitous terms like “down-sizing” and “re-engineering” were created to mask the fact that the company was really cutting staff, there was a shock in discovering the corporate world was not nearly as safe as our parents advised.
Though I would need Margaret Mead or Louis Leakey to analyze and validate the anecdotal aspects of my sociological observations, for now it seems that the Boomers, raised under the aegis of living life carefully and indeed mitigating as much risk as humanly possible, would covet the ownership of Sale.
Conversely, the GenExers who now play fantasy ball—and often grew up with it as a normalcy as opposed to an eccentric game—often graduate from college with huge debt and in what has sometimes been a volatile job market. Couple that with the increased influx of tempting rookies and presence of the daily format and taking a chance on Corey Seager is a gamble, but one to be grabbed at with hope and possibilities as opposed to the fear of making a bad mistake.
In that sense, the game has changed, and perhaps I need to change my game a little accordingly.
In fact, one of the questions I was asked a lot as I prepped for LABR and Tout was “How do you win in such a league?”
To me, the obvious answer is know the rules and know the player pool inside and out. It does help to have drafted with your league mates previously, as that will give a hint as to how your opponents might assess talent and draft.
But, when I think about my biggest successes in playing fantasy ball, they were all the result of taking one or two big risks, be they at the draft table or making a trade. Similarly, it can be easy to be caught flat-footed with your team, both during the season, and season-to-season by adopting a strategy and then sticking with it while never really adjusting to changes in baseball, real and fantasy, both of which are indeed fluid.
So, make sure you do pay attention to trends both short and long term while prepping for your drafts and auctions. And, don’t be afraid to fail big, for if you are willing to fail big, you then stand a better chance of winning big.
I welcome your feedback on the topic. You can comment below, or catch me @lawrmichaels.
Two weeks ago, on the eve of LABR, I published my wish list for the league. So now, on the eve of Tout Wars 2016, from the fantastic island we know as Manhattan, here is my list for the draft that will be hosted on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Channel 87. In fact, all four Tout auctions will be broadcast over the weekend.
Of course, to keep things interesting, I am going to push for a slightly different team than I purchased for LABR. So, here goes. A post-mortem will follow on Monday.
Chris Archer ($26): Always have liked the guy, and think he will establish himself as a top-5 American League starter.
Sonny Gray ($21): I am thinking maybe two top starters and then play hitting largely up the middle.
Josh Reddick ($11): Four years removed from his 32-homer season, Reddick has improved his eye to the tune of a career-high OBP in 2015 with 49 walks to 65 strikeouts (in 2012, the right fielder whiffed 155 times). His .438-1-6 spring tells me those lessons over the zone are for real.
Kole Calhoun ($17): Sorry, manlove, but I do think his best lies ahead.
Albert Pujols ($15): Think the Albert is being prematurely dismissed, and that his power numbers might drop a bit, but he can still do .285-30-90.
Billy Butler ($5): Butler went for $2 in LABR, which like it or not is a steal. An everyday player with the chance of hitting .280-10-60 is a deal I will take.
Jose Altuve ($29): If I can grab the Astro for under $30, and nail some steals and runs, I will indeed do it.
Don't forget you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
I do have to note that some nasty bug was floating around in Phoenix, and I know my mates Jeff Mans and Ray Flowers got sick, and so did I. So, I went into these drafts with a pair of guidelines. First, I did not have a strategy at all. Second, I decided to build a roster around some players I like, but might not have ordinarily taken were these anything but mocks.
For instance, with the fifth pick of #MockDraft29 I grabbed George Springer in the first round, ahead of even Mike Trout. Mind you, I was not trying to be stupid with this selection, but a lot predict a season commensurate to what Trout can do, and my thought was if I take Springer, what will I assemble around him?
In contrast, for #MockDraft30, where I picked #1, I went more traditional. Still, I tried in both to push a little high with younger players I like, but again, I was making choices and picking a path pretty much on the spot.
|Round||MockDraft29 (Pick #5)||MockDraft30 (Pick #1)|
|1||George Springer||Paul Goldschmidt|
|2||Jose Altuve||Chris Sale|
|3||Yoenis Cespedes||Jacob deGrom|
|4||Jacob deGrom||Yoenis Cespedes|
|5||Xander Bogaerts||Corey Seager|
|6||Addison Russell||Randal Grichuk|
|7||Jung Ho Kang||Addison Russell|
|8||Carlos Martinez||Jung Ho Kang|
|9||Byung Ho Park||Carlos Martinez|
|10||Stephen Piscotty||Stephen Piscotty|
|11||Kole Calhoun||Jonathan Lucroy|
|12||Kyle Hendricks||Jeff Samardzija|
|13||Jose Quintana||Drew Smyly|
|14||Yasmani Grandal||Russell Martin|
|15||Jeff Samardzija||Ender Inciarte|
|16||Roberto Osuna||Santiago Casilla|
|17||Kevin Kiermaier||Arodys Vizcaino|
|18||Jonathan Schoop||Steven Souza|
|19||Marco Estrada||Nick Castellanos|
|20||Evan Gattis||Kyle Hendricks|
|21||Danny Valencia||Brett Lawrie|
|22||Jimmy Nelson||Jorge Soler|
|23||Wade Miley||Trevor Bauer|
Everything changes. Nothing changes.
Such is life, and such it is for me, going back to the LABR American League after a three-year hiatus to the National League. Truth is, I don't really care much about the parameters of any league in which I play as long as I do indeed understand them.
So, this Saturday--as covered live on Sirius/XM, channel 87--I will acquire my team during the 12-team auction with a $260 salary cap, in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality, hosted by USA Today's Steve Gardner.
Thus, in plain sight, in front of mine enemies (ok, well, my league mates, like Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf, whom I love), here are some of the players I have an eye on, and their price zone.
Now, I realize you might think it is silly to reveal one's cards too soon, but I have found we all have egos, so if I told you every detail of my foolproof plan to take over the world, you would look, and say "that is good, but what if you did this?" Additionally, we all have players we like and don't and price enforcement can be a tricky thing. Should I get into a battle over the rights to Chris Sale (who undoubtedly will have some serious bidding), I just have to figure if the extra dollar is worth it, or I can adjust elsewhere.
So here are indeed some players who seem interesting to me. Note there are a couple of higher priced players, but it is finding the productive everyday bargains that win leagues like this. That, and trying to figure out a way to unlock a title your mates have not seen. Sometimes that means failing big, but sometimes it means winning big.
Yonder Alonso ($7): Ah, the beauty of disappointment can shine when a prospect loses some gloss. But, much like Danny Valencia, Alonso is now the perfect fit for Billy Beane's team of exiles from the island of lost players. Alonso produced a modest .282-5-31 line over 364 at-bats last year but had a stellar .381 OBP with 42 walks to 44 strikeouts. I suspect he is considered a corner guy by most, but I also think he will play first base full-time and jump his totals to .280-15-75.
Eduardo Escobar ($6): I had him on my list last year for a buck, and got him. The guy plays all over, does a lot of good stuff, and is made for an AL-only middle infield spot.
George Springer ($26): Still a level two star, but not for long. If Springer stays healthy, he becomes a first rounder in 2017, cranking out a .275-28-85-25 line (remember, I am very conservative with my projections).
Jason Castro ($4): So shiny after hitting .276-15-56 in 2012. So dull and broken, since. But, again, the Astros are now a solid veteran team with post-season experience. Castro will raise his game with this team and return to those numbers of three years ago, or maybe even best them.
Trevor Bauer ($3): Good team, good rotation, less pressure, Trevor steps it up. For $3, he can toss 175 innings, win ten, have an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP of 1.30 and 165 whiffs. But, I think Bauer will do even better because of changes in the environment.
Kevin Kiermaier ($6): There are a lot of really good young outfielders in the Majors, so it is hard to isolate the ones who will excel. I am thinking Kiermaier is ready to take a step based upon the pretty good .352 OBP he managed in the Minors. .270-12-70-20 is doable.
Check out the Hotpage on Monday for the assessment of my spoils, and remember you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
Since the start of the Mock Season, I have done a bunch of various formats, but the last couple of weeks Howard and I have been playing with switching between picking 1st and 15th, and seeing how the variations might form.
So, this week, let's look at three #MockDraftArmy efforts, in which I drafted 7th, 15th, and then 1st.
The entire boards for these drafts can be seen below:
First, let's look at the first round picks for each, in order:
|Draft Spot||MDA #4||MDA #16||MDA #21|
|1||Mike Trout||Mike Trout||Clayton Kershaw|
|2||Paul Goldschmidt||Paul Goldschmidt||Paul Goldschmidt|
|3||Bryce Harper||Bryce Harper||Mike Trout|
|4||Clayton Kershaw||Clayton Kershaw||Bryce Harper|
|5||Carlos Correa||Manny Machado||Josh Donaldson|
|6||Giancarlo Stanton||Josh Donaldson||Miguel Cabrera|
|7||A.J. Pollock||Nolan Arenado||Manny Machado|
|8||Anthony Rizzo||Giancarlo Stanton||Antony Rizzo|
|9||Manny Machado||Carlos Correa||Carlos Correa|
|10||Josh Donaldson||Andrew McCutchen||Andrew McCutchen|
|11||Miguel Cabrera||Anthony Rizzo||Giancarlo Stanton|
|12||Andrew McCutchen||Miguel Cabrera||Jose Altuve|
|13||Nolan Arenado||Kris Bryant||Kris Bryant|
|14||Jose Altuve||Jose Altuve||Nolan Arenado|
|15||Kris Bryant||Mookie Betts||A.J. Pollock|
|Round||MDA #4||MDA #16||MDA #21|
|1||A.J. Pollock||Mookie Betts||Clayton Kershaw|
|2||Madison Bumgarner||A.J. Pollock||Joey Votto|
|3||Lorenzo Cain||Xander Bogaerts||Lorenzo Cain|
|4||Yoenis Cespedes||Adrian Gonzalez||Xander Bogaerts|
|5||Adrian Gonzalez||Kenley Jansen||Kyle Seager|
But, just for grins today, how about my bottom five selections as a point of contrast/filling need:
|Round||MDA #4||MDA #16||MDA #21|
|19||Jesse Hahn||Danny Valencia||Robinson Chirinos|
|20||Odubel Herrera||Trea Turner||Brock Holt|
|21||Oswaldo Arcia||Brock Holt||Ben Paulsen|
|22||Jose Iglesias||Nick Markakis||:Leonys Martin|
|23||Brock Holt||Oswaldo Arcia||Hunter Strickland|
The end might indeed be where a win would come from. I will continue to try to break down the mocks as the season gets closer. Remember, your comments are always welcome, and you can hit me up @lawrmichaels.
Last Friday, my mates Howard Bender (@Rotobuzzguy) and Ray Flowers (@baseballguys) were good enough to toddle into Hayward, where my band, The Biletones, were playing a gig.
It was a fun evening, and we had a good trio of sets, the second completing with the wonderful Sonny Curtis tune, "I Fought the Law (and the Law Won)."
During the existence of Howard's #MockDraftArmy, Howard and I have often discussed the best draft slots, and we generally come back to 1 and 15 (or last, depending upon how many teams) in a snake. So, when Howard heard us cover "I Fought the Law", during the break he came up to me and said, "Thursday, during the 15-team mock, I am calling it 'I Fought the Lawr,' with one of us drafting first, and one drafting 15th.
I have actually used that moniker as a fantasy team name before, but this was just fine with me. I like picking at the wheel for it allows me to plot the pairing of picks, which not only can flesh out a team, but also pair players to ideally jack with the plans of my opponents.
BTW, check out Howard's assessment of the Mock right here.
1.15 Mookie Betts: I wanted to go young, and pair up picks. I was hoping maybe Anthony Rizzo and Josh Donaldson would slip with players pushing for Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant. Wrong. So, I went with Betts, looking at power/speed/upside.
2.1 A.J. Pollock: And then took Pollock to complement Betts. Collectively, they should be good for 45 homers, 190 each of runs and RBI, solid average, and 60-plus swipes.
3.15 Xander Bogaerts: I confess, man-crush, but this gives me a shortstop I like who can produce and who would not be there by my next round of picks.
4.1 Adrian Gonzalez: Wanted a little more power, and A-Gon is just so consistent it is hard to ignore. So, I paired him with Bogaerts while starting to flesh my infield.
5.15 Kenley Jansen: 15 teams does mean grabbing closers at the right time. This might have been a tad early, but I was hoping to initiate scarcity fear in my league mates and while they were picking closers, take advantage of other players available.
6.1 Craig Kimbrel: Part II of the Jansen argument, plus this gave me a solid saves foundation.
7.15 Marcus Stroman: This will give you an idea of how quickly the starting pitcher elite were wiped off the face of everything. No Sonny Gray. No Gerrit Cole. Tough draft if this is my #1, but fantastic upside.
8.1 Jose Quintana: Much the same as Stroman, and I had to start somewhere, so it was power pitchers for me.
9.15 Jeff Samardzija: Looking at the Shark to get it together at ATT, and help my pitching numbers.
10.1 Stephen Piscotty: Outfielder #3, whom again I knew would never last. This kid can rake.
11.15 Travis d'Arnaud: Second tier catchers were there, so I went with Travis.
12.1 J.T. Realmuto: And then complemented the Mets backstop with the Fish one. Again, trying to slim the pool and force early decisions on the others.
13.15 Wade Miley: Struggling to put a staff together, I was hoping the park and the whiffs fall my way.
14.1 Mike Fiers: Actually love Fiers at this point, and as a #5 I guess I could do worse.
15.15 Joe Panik: I let my infield go, knowing there were a lot of comparable picks towards the lower portion. Panik, who has a great line drive swing, is just fine for me right here. .290-10-65 with 80 runs, perhaps, is totally doable.
16.1 Nick Castellanos: Filling third with another guy with upside, on a good hitting team. As a veteran, I expect the Tigers' third sacker to step it up and hit .260-19-75 (or better).
17.15 Andrew Cashner: Finally healthy, he made 31 starts last year, so I am hoping he can build on that. Considering the skill set, Cashner could be a steal down here.
18.1 Brandon Finnegan: More manlove here. I have picked Finnegan wherever I can. Looking at the sweet upside, with ideally very little pressure on a rebuilding team.
19.15 Danny Valencia: Filling the corner with the Oakland third sacker, whom I have liked since the minors, and who now looks like he will be a solid everyday guy at third. After all, the last reclamation project Oakland had at third was Josh Donaldson.
20.1 Trea Turner: Rookie crapshoot. Don't ask me why. I think I am attracted to shiny objects. If he succeeds, though, boy will I be a fan.
21.15 Brock Holt: Fourth outfield slot, and it is Holt? I told you this was a tough mock.
22.1 Nick Markakis: Fleshing out my outfield with back-to-back outfielder picks. The down side is this pair hit a collective five homers last year. The upside is both should help my average, and Holt gives me some position flexibility. But, the main thing is that they put up 900 or so at-bats between them. That would be a contribution.
23.15 Oswaldo Arcia: My utility slot, and another crap shoot among many. I am hoping Arcia joins his fellow Twins youngsters and kicks it. But, most of the guys I would have taken for this (think Domingo Santana) were way gone.
Like I said, a very tough draft, and my hats off to all the participants for both making great picks and making it tough all around.
Last week during the #MockDraftArmy review, I wrote about taking two pitchers with my first two selections, then two more with my next four picks, and with my seven and eight picks, a pair of relievers, meaning six of my first eight selections were hurlers.
During that draft, I selected in the #15 spot, or last with two picks at the wheel. This past Thursday, I again selected at the end, albeit of a 12-team Mock, and went a completely different route.
I do need to note ahead that the difference between 12 and 15 teams is indeed huge--it means a difference of 69 more players drafted in the larger framework--but fashioning a strategy and assembling a team under varying circumstances is part of what makes the mock exercise revealing and contextual.
So, today, let's look at the picks, round-by-round, nabbed at the end of one round/beginning of the next just to see the difference.
Note that I do realize I am spending a lot of time reviewing mock results here, but again, mocking is the best prep there is for both understanding the player pool, draft tendencies, and getting a grasp for navigating through all this.
2) Chris Sale/Carlos Correa: More of round 1 logic at the wheel in both instances. I was surprised that both Correa and Bryant lasted to me, not that I am suggesting either is really a first rounder just yet. And, well, grabbing two is sort of jumping off a cliff with my eyes closed.
4) Jacob deGrom/Chris Sale: Again, stacking pitching, as noted, and then grabbed a #1 starter who went around 40 picks earlier in the deeper format.
5) Francisco Lindor/Jason Kipnis: In the deeper league, I could not get Correa, but Lindor is interesting at this juncture and just about as much fun. As for Kipnis, I expect a slight bump from last year, but last year is just fine as a bottom line.
6) Kolten Wong/Carlos Carrasco: Deeper league means thinner impact second sackers. Kipnis was gone but Wong has some great upside. As for Carrasco, again, like Sale in the shallower environ, he was right there for the grabbing three rounds later.
9) Kole Calhoun/Byung Ho Park: Solid Calhoun actually slipped in my view. Park is another youngster gamble, but there appears to be some power and all the front line first sackers were gone.
10) Randal Grichuk/Lance McCullers: My Grichuk attraction is well known. As for McCullers, good team, resume, and whiffs lie ahead, I hope.
12) Stephen Piscotty/Taijuan Walker: Piscotty redux, but Walker is much like McCullers in potential upside.
18) Marco Estrada/Domingo Santana: Have both on both teams, selected the exact opposite in round 16. Hmmmmm?
20) Brandon Finnegan/Brett Lawrie: Finnegan becomes a nice flier in the deeper format while Lawrie is pretty solid up the middle in the 12-teamer.
21) Nathan Eovaldi/Luke Gregerson: Eovaldi and his whiffs should be a nice crapshoot this late, while in the shallow format I blew off closers till the end. Why you ask? Well, 12 teams generally means 24 closers and that ideally means six will not even be chosen. You can indeed be flexible with closers in the shallower format.
22) Martin Prado/Andrew Miller: Would I rather have Lawrie than Prado? Yes, but so be it. As for Miller, again, grabbing potential sources of saves late in the shallow format makes things a lot different.
Don't forget you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
But, Thursday evening, Howard's mate Dave Kerr hosted (Howard was tied with Super Bowl 50 work, which is in our back yard) as the Army went at it for a 15-team mixed format.
I logged in a little before the draft start and found myself drafting in the 15-slot, at the wheel, so I decided then and there to try something and see which way the players fell.
I do love drafting at the end of the snake, for it affords chances to try things not necessarilly afforded at other slots within the serpent. Drafting first affords some of the same chances, the difference being you make a pick and nada for the next 30 players, while drafting 15 means two prime picks right in the middle of the first rounds.
Since we all know just how deep pitching is this season, it has been interesting to see how long drafters wait to fill out their rotations and pens. In general, I have found despite the depth at the position, players are snatching up the top pitchers early, forcing all of us to have to actually work the hill spot sooner than might seem reasonable.
So, I decided to try and exploit that even more, drafting pitchers with my first four selections, and then with my seventh and eighth selections as well. That meant I built a deadly rotation--and pen--with the first third of the draft, but that also meant a scramble for at-bats, power, on-base, and speed as I took only position players from rounds 9-18.
The full draft can be viewed here. Below is my roster, in draft order, with my thought of why at the time.
3.15 Jacob deGrom: Best strikeout guy on the board at the time.
4.1 Carlos Carrasco: Whiffs, yes, and just hoping he has arrived.
5.15 Francisco Lindor: I wanted to make sure that I had some potential production at middle infield, and with the likes of Correa and Seager and Tulo gone, well, this is where I went.
7.15 Trevor Rosenthal: Best closer available at the time.
8.1 Mark Melancon: With Rosenthal atop the stopper list, Melancon was next. Selecting a closer in a 15-team set-up is a lot different than with 12 or 13 teams, so I took two here to make my opponents suddenly have to deal with a potential dearth of both top starters and closers.
9.15 Kole Calhoun: No question how much I like Calhoun, and well, he was the best bet on the board for 25-plus homers.
10.1 Randal Grichuk: The fun of this draft was gambling on the likes of Lindor and Grichuk (and more).
11.15 Carlos Santana: The top tier first sackers were likewise gone, but Santana offers on-base numbers and pop, and I still think (hope) his best numbers lie ahead.
12.1 Stephen Piscotty: Another guy I really like, Piscotty makes great contact, can really hit, and I hope he just gets a shot at playing full time. If he does, I am thinking .290-17-85 is reasonable.
13.15 Derek Norris: Catchers were getting thin like closers a few rounds before, so I tried to buy more time by grabbing Norris, who is another guy whose best work I think lies ahead.
14.1 Blake Swihart: So, I doubled up at backstop, grabbing another shiny prospect I hope will deliver.
15.15 Nick Castellanos: No question Castellanos has double-digit power, and again, another guy who is due to be as good as we hoped when drafted five years back.
16.1 Domingo Santana: High on my list, Santana should have a regular shot to be the starting centerfielder in Milwaukee, and if he can play should give 20 or so homers along with some nice support numbers.
17.15 Kevin Kiermaier: My last outfield slot went to another up-and-comer with a track record of some power and some speed. Ideally, in his third year, things will fall in place.
18.1 Marco Estrada: If he keeps the WHIP down, and gets his strikeouts, I am happy to have Estrada as a #5 starter.
19.15 Avisail Garcia: Garcia goes to my Utility spot, giving a chance for some upside. He is still just 25, you know?
20.1 Brandon Finnegan: Personal favorite, and I think he will flourish as a starter this year.
21.1 Nathan Eovaldi: A little surprised Eovaldi was still out there, but happy to take his whiffs. Another player who is due to break through in my opinion.
22.1 Martin Prado: By now, the pool was thin, but I do like Prado, who can hit and has a little power. He is the kind of guy who might not give much, but neither will he take much.
23.15 Jose Iglesias: Took a Mr. Irrelevant gamble on the Tigers shortstop, who hit .300, stole 11, and makes good contact with 25 walks to 44 whiffs last year.
There you have it. Don't forget you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
The #MockDraftArmy--as curated by @RotoBuzzGuy (Howard Bender, of Fantasy Alarm)--is alive and well, and this past week the Army completed the first drafts of 2016.
I participated in two: a 12-team mixed on Wednesday, and the next evening, a 15-team mixed (see links for results), and while I wound up with basic strategies for each format, I think this time it is important to take a look at just how different things are with the addition of three teams to the mix.
On Wednesday, I selected in the nine slot, while Thursday, in the seventh slot. Off the top, seventh in a 15-team league is a tough place, for it is just far enough to project, but too close to plan much effectively long-term.
For both teams I tried to focus enough on pitching such that I was willing to grab starters despite pitching depth. On Wednesday, I waited late for closers, selecting Roberto Osuna (18) and Arodys Vizcaino (19), while Thursday, with 15 teams, I went Kenley Jansen in round six and Jeurys Familia in nine.
Uncharacteristically, I went for outfielders with three of my first four picks in the 15-team set up, while waiting and assembling a great cluster of young flychasers over rounds 8-12 with a break at 10 for Lance McCullers.
Looking at both make-ups, remember that 66 more players go off the board in the 15-team set up, making a 12-team format feel pretty shallow. For example, my last pick Wednesday was filling my second catcher slot with Jason Castro, who can hit with power, but not a lot more, while Thursday I made a last ditch scramble for saves with Hunter Strickland. Strickland was not selected Wednesday.
OK, so let's look at a few guys and see if we can derive anything that might help us get a feel for our pending March drafts and auctions. Mind you, I still have no use for ADP; however, I do understand ADP does provide a window into when opponents favor a particular player, whether I covet the guy or not.
Michael Brantley: The Indians outfielder, who is out until May following shoulder surgery, was a 5.5 selection Wednesday while he somehow dropped to 14.2 the next night. That is weird for though Brantley misses a month, imagine where Troy Tulowitzki would be taken were he to miss a month, especially in a deeper league. I might have jumped on Brantley Thursday, but as stated, I loaded on power and speed in the outfield early so I looked to fill holes elsewhere. That is almost 100 picks later.
Stephen Piscotty: Kind of the same, as I nabbed Piscotty at 13.9 Wednesday, while Steve Gardner could wait till 17.9 the next night to grab the fine young Cardinals first sacker/outfielder. Again, I was not looking at first and the outfield, so Piscotty was not on my wish list or queue, but in retrospect, he should have been. This comes out to a 60-pick difference. Odd.
Zack Greinke: Selected as the second starting pitcher, at 2.2 Thursday, but dropped to the fifth round (5.3) with seven hurlers preceding the new D-back on the Wednesday pick list. There were 45 picks in between.
Danny Valencia: I like the Athletics third sacker and had planned on him as a late corner/utility type player. I did grab Valencia with the 22.4 selection Wednesday, but he was long gone by then Thursday, going 17.5, almost 75 players earlier.
Miguel Sano: Ok, so there was a bit of a gap with a lot of the players--stars and filler alike--but what about the youngsters we love? Well, Sano was 10.7 Wednesday, and Thursday, just ten picks later at 11.5.
Carlos Correa: Best for last? I don't know. I do like Correa, but as a first-rounder, the young shortstop really needs to generate $35-plus of value to make the pick worth it. That is a lot to ask, especially when Josh Donaldson, the reigning AL MVP, was taken after Correa in both instances. But Correa went 1.5 on Wednesday, and just two later at 1.7 on Thursday. Correa might be good, and have upside. He could earn those $35, but what taking Correa that early does is give lower drafters in the snake a better shot at safer bets.
However, remember that the function of mock drafts is three-fold. First, it reinforces a broad-based knowledge of the player pool, which is always a good thing. Second, mocks do give a chance to see how others value guys like Correa, for better or worse. But third, and most important, mocks offer a chance to try some things, mix it up, and see what falls. Like a Michael Brantley in the 14th.
Remember, you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
Note: If you are reading this, that suggests more than a passing interest in fantasy games. Please do write to your local lawmakers and tell them of your love of playing and desire to keep on playing, while keeping the game fair--and regulated--for all. Visit the FSTA site for more information (and thanks).
Tuesday evening found Lord Zola himself sitting next to me (or was it the other way around?) at the 2016 Fantasy Sports Trade Association's (FSTA) Experts Baseball Draft.
The draft is always part of the Association's Winter Convention, which was extra important as we work as both players and members of an industry to ensure the right and ability to play fantasy games while still keeping the contests transparent--and profitable--while being fair to participants.
In fact, if you are reading this, that suggests more than a passing interest in fantasy games. Please do write to your local lawmakers and tell them of your love of playing and desire to keep on playing. Visit the FSTA site for more information (and thanks).
OK, so going up against the likes of defending champs Steve Gardner and Howard Kamen, plus Ron Shandler, Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf and Stacie Stern, Jeff Erickson and on, who did we cop?
For some context, Todd and I drafted in the 12-slot of a 13-team standard 5x5 that allows a 29-man total roster. Injured players can be placed on IR, thus they don't count as one of the six reserve picks. The draft was carried on Sirius/XM, who does rebroadcast, but if you wish to see the pickings thus far, click here. We were able to draft 22 rounds live, and are completing the proceedings via e-mail. Note that as long as we can fill a roster by the 29th selection, we are good, so at press time, Todd and I still have a few picks to go.
1.12 Manny Machado (3B): Kind of a no-brainer at that spot. We truly had not anticipated Machado falling to us, and couldn't pass up a solid (162 games last year) potential 30/30 guy.
3.12 J.D. Martinez (OF): This came down to Charlie Blackmon and Martinez, and Todd lobbied harder. I actually liked Yoenis Cespedes a little better than either, but Todd's projections said one of the pair, and my nod went to Martinez.
4.2 David Price (P): True pitching is deep, but we knew the wait for simply our next pick was 22 players away, so Price was the strikeout option we preferred.
5.12 Xander Bogaerts (SS): 196 hits last year, and like Machado, he's just 23 yet going into a third full-time season. What is not to like? And, this one was my target (though Z put up no fight).
6.2 Carlos Carrasco (SP): Again, due to our draft spot, we felt we had to be a little aggressive nabbing this potentially dominant hurler. We knew Carlos would not be there when out next pick arrived.
7.12 Kolten Wong (2B): Some power, some speed, and a third year guy who ideally will come into his own as a vet.
8.2 Kole Calhoun (OF): Yet another third-year full-timer, coming off a 26-homer season. Not sure how he fell this far, and I admit to more of a mancrush than Todd, but again, this was not a hard sell.
9.12 Trevor Rosenthal (RP): Closers were starting to come off the board, so this was the best available at the spot at the time. And, it is not like he isn't good.
10.2 Russell Martin (C): 23 dingers and the hope that Martin hits up in the order prompted the selection (Z may have more to say on this).
11.12 Jose Quintana (SP): #3 starter ideally helps our growing whiff total.
12.2 Carlos Santana (1B): We missed out on the banger first basemen. We both like Carlos but are a little concerned at his ground ball rate for a power hitter.
13.12 Shawn Tolleson (RP): Closer the second.
15.12 Ketel Marte (MI): We love the Mariners' middle guy a lot so we were thrilled to get him here.
16.2 Ender Inciarte (OF): I made this push, but we agreed the new Brave could be a stolen base boon.
17.12 Mike Fiers (SP): Hoping for some more whiffs with Fiers on a good contending team and maybe some wins, too.
18.2 Scott Kazmir (SP): Neither of us sold, but on the Dodgers--who are good with pitchers--Kazmir will hopefully maintain.
19.12 Jhonny Peralta (UT): Everyday player with 20-homer potential.
20.2 James McCann (C): On-base numbers a little scary, but some home run potential, and on a team that should score a bunch of runs.
21.12 Anibal Sanchez (SP): A gamble, but one with strikeout potential, and Todd and I both like the whiffs.
22.2 Devon Travis (MI): Injured so we can stash him, but nice offensive potential when Travis is healthy, ideally come May. After this pick, it was pretty clear Travis would not have been there for our round 23 selection.
23.12 Martin Prado (CI): Everyday player who can do a little of everything.
24.2 Clay Buchholz (SP): Hopefully some strikeouts and no time on the DL.
Just before the All-Star break last year, I wrote an article for our friends at USA Today on the proliferation of rookie pitchers in 2015. The truth is by the time the season was over, no less that 150 pitchers had made their debut in 2015 according to Baseball-Reference.
To me, that suggests that Major League GM's are more than willing to give a shot to a draft pick moving up through the system. Certainly, if we look at the Mets and the Indians, both teams have fantastic young rotations, but just about every franchise boasts a hot young arm on the verge of domination. Daniel Norris. Aaron Nola. Carlos Rodon. Henry Owens. All seem on the verge of big things at The Show and on our fantasy rosters.
In a way, this makes sense to me. For example, the Dodgers gave Kenta Maeda $3 million a year on an eight-year contract worth a maximum of $90 million including incentives to pitch for them.
Maeda is hardly a rookie at age 28, with eight professional seasons played for Hiroshima, over which he went 97-67, 2.39 over 1509.6 innings. Maeda had fine control in Japan, with 1233 strikeouts to 319 walks with 1263 hits for a 1.048 WHIP. But, at 6'0", 154 pounds, I am not sure how a young man with 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings will fare hurling in a league where strikeouts, fastballs, and power largely rule the roost.
Irrespective, the Dodgers signed Maeda and installed him in their rotation, and at present the import is the #3 starter for the team (behind Clayton Kershaw and Scott Kazmir), ahead of both Alex Wood and Mike Bolsinger. Now, it is true both Wood and Bolsinger ran out of gas last year, but still, Wood was a decent 12-12, 3.84 over 189.6 innings while Bolsinger went 6-6, 3.62 over 109.3 frames. Note too that the Dodgers also have Brett Anderson, who went 11-9 over 189 more innings last year (staying healthy for the first time in the last six years) as well as Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu (who missed all of last season due to injury), giving the team as much depth in the rotation as anyone.
While I do understand a team cannot have too much pitching, I don't understand a long-term commitment to an unknown quantity like Maeda despite already having 45-plus wins and a sub-4.00 ERA over nearly 700 innings among Wood, Anderson, Ryu, and Bolsinger.
And, it is not so much that I mean to pick on the Maeda signing, for it seems a lot of pitchers of questionable skill sets have received some fine contracts. Kazmir, for example, has had a nice couple of years, but $16 million a year? Or J.A. Happ, who now gets $12 million a year after establishing himself as a 33-year-old with a career 62-61, 4.13 record with a 1.367 WHIP?
Anyway, in looking at the remaining arms, let's look at this year's Jamey Wrights, in other words, pitchers who manage to keep a job despite a prolonged inability to get hitters out at critical moments. Although, Wright did emerge as an effective middle guy at the very end of his odd career, so though I am happier for the Major League teams to go to their systems before signing any of these guys, you still never know.
Tim Lincecum: How it hurts to put Timmy, whom I scored during his glorious NL heyday, winning back-to-back Cy Youngs, but Timmy has lost it. Velocity or not, he has not adjusted and learned the Tim Hudson method of transitioning from throwing to pitching. The truth is, Lincecum (and as I have written before, Matt Cain) no longer own batters in critical spots, and as a result I would not trust either of them (note Cain is still a Giant).
A.J. Griffin: Such a waste, for Griffin could pitch pretty well at first before his arm fell off. He hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2013, and allowed 46 homers over 282.6 innings with the Athletics. And now we have to trust that his arm is ok and he won't allow gopher balls. Ha.
Mark Buehrle: OK, the thing with Buehrle is what you see is what you get, and what you get is 200 innings with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts. In some leagues--like H2H formats--that is worth a lot, but not so much if you are in a straight roto league, unless your league is way deep. Then the innings can help you, especially if you can stream, for Buehrle is streaky and can be exploited accordingly.
Mike Minor: Ouch, what happened here? Minor advances in skills, hits the skids with a 6-12, 4.77 over 145.3 innings last year, and the Braves let him go? Once again, a lesson in how tough it is to make it. However, maybe there is some Luke Hochevar in Minor somewhere with a nice middle relief career ahead of him.
Doug Fister I don't know why I have never felt I could trust Fister, for his numbers between 2011-14 are really pretty good (51-38), but here is the lanky (6'8") righty waiting for a chance after an iffy (5-7, 4.19, 1.398 over 103 innings) 2015. Fister is just 31 and surely will sign somewhere and actually might prove to be the best bargain among the basement treasures of the unsigned veteran hurlers of 2016. Depending upon where he signs, for a couple of bucks in an AL or NL-only format, I might be willing to take a flier.