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Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down


2015 Magazine Mock, Round 1 PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 22 November 2014 00:00

Every year, my Rock Remnants mate Peter Kreutzer (aka Rotoman) oversees the production of The Fantasy Baseball Guide and as part of my contribution to this esteemed periodical, which generally appears on bookshelves everywhere each February, is coordinating the annual mock draft.

So, last Tuesday, a cluster of industry names gathered at Couchmanagers.com, a very cool mock locale operated by Mike James, and administered by Jimi Nix.  

November drafts are always dicey (oh, let's be honest: all drafts are always dicey, it is just November ones are even dicier) but we did make it through just fine. So, for the edification of the masses--and with hopes of generating some mag sales come next year--here is the first round with comments by the drafters.

1. Peter Kreutzer (blog.askRotoman.com): Mike Trout (OF): What else was I supposed to do?

2. Zach Steinhorn (MLB.com): Miguel Cabrera (1B): Posted a "disappointing" .313-25-109-101 line last year despite being banged up for most of the season. I'm expecting better results in 2015.

3. Greg Ambrosius (NFBC.stats.com): Andrew McCutchen (OF): I chose the five-category star who is still only 28.

4. Gene McCaffrey (Wiseguy.com): Paul Goldschmidt (1B): Just a little safer than Stanton or maybe not.

5. Joe Sheehan (SportsIllustrated.com): Giancarlo Stanton (OF): Some risk after how 2014 ended, but definitely best available at this spot.

6. Scott Pianowski (Yahoo.com): Carlos Gomez (OF): Bat targets gone, didn't want a pitcher. Pop and speed: fine.

7. Tim McLeod (PattonandCo.com): Jose Abreu (1B): 30-110 with a .300 BA. Sold!

8. Jeff Erickson (Rotowire.com): Clayton Kershaw (P): Third on my board (Stanton second); I understand the risks that come with drafting a SP early, especially with this crowd. But he's still head-and-shoulders above the pack, even in a pitching era.

9. Doug Anderson (Fantasysportsnetwork.com): Edwin Encarnacion (1B) Was gonna go Kershaw but can't complain about one of the few players who will threaten 40 HRs.

10. Jimi Nix (Couchmanagers.com): Jose Bautista (OF): A steady power source that should provide 100 runs, 35 homers, 100 RBI with a .280+ average.

11. Derek Van Riper (Rotowire.com):  Jacoby Ellsbury (OF): I think 2014 is a reasonable baseline, well worth a late first-round pick.

12. Lawr Michaels (Mastersball.com): Anthony Rendon (3B): Like the power, speed, position flex combo and figure he is going to break through in 2015.

13 Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ.com): Adam Jones (OF): I hate picking 13th; lots of similar options--Jones is one of them.

14. Steve Gardner (fantasy.usatoday.com): Robinson Cano (2B): Steady, solid production at a premium position. His supporting cast will be better too.

15. Todd Zola (Mastersball.com): Anthony Rizzo (1B): Leap of faith last season was real and 2013 was an off-year but power potential renders it a risk well worth taking.

 
Free Agent Pitchers, 2015 PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 15 November 2014 00:00

Last week, we took a look at some of the interesting free agent hitters looking more for a new contract than work.

I guess this is because arms are so volatile that the general age of the hurlers is less than their hitting counterparts we examined last week, and there are some guys on this list I find more than interesting as fantasy investments in the future.

So, this time, let's take a peek at the hill, and see what is lurking (age is in parenthesis).

Jon Lester (30): I still want to believe that Oakland swapped for Lester figuring they would have dominant pitching and that would lead them through the playoffs, as opposed to Billy Beane being worried that if say the Angels copped the southpaw from the Red Sox that Oakland would have to face their nemesis. I guess I understand the trade, anyway, but I doubt Lester will be back in Oakland save starting for some opposition. Still, he is very good, and should command a four-year plus deal to lead a rotation somewhere. He is the kind of #2 starter I love in a mixed league for $20.

James Shields (32): Poor James. He is another one of those workhorse guys who cannot seem to win a game in the spotlight, so his resume bears a bit of tarnish as a result. However, this is also a guy who averages 14 wins, 227 innings, a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the past nine years. He deserves a deal a la Lester, and again, if I can get him around $18 as a #2 (or spend $35 on both Lester and Shields), I am a happy camper.

Brandon McCarthy (31): Talk about ups and downs in a career (I was at the game when McCarthy got beaned by a liner). Well, last year pretty much defined his career, as McCarthy was 3-10, 5.01 with Arizona over 109.6 frames, then 7-3, 2.89 over 90.3 innings with the Yankees. When he is on, he is pretty good, and I think the lanky (he is 6'7") guy is over the trauma of the beaning. And, I think he will be a bargain whether he re-signs with the Yanks, or if you can grab him for $7 or $8.

Jake Peavy (33): Peavy is sort of the NL's answer to McCarthy in the sense that he was 1-9, 4,72 for the BoSox over 124 innings, then 6-4, 2.17 over 74.3 innings after returning to the NL West. He is a nice fit in San Francisco, and I would not be surprised to see the former Cy Young recipient stay at AT&T. He'll get a two-year deal with an option somewhere, and will be a solid fourth starter on your roto team for around the same cost as McCarthy (and they both will be worth it).

Francisco Liriano (31): If you read my mate the Drook's Friday article, then you know Liriano had the best whiff rate in the Majors last year. It is true he has durability issues, but last year Liriano whiffed 175 over 162.6 innings, but I am thinking with age and experience come pitching smarts and that his best years are ahead. Because of the potentially fragile nature of Liriano, I suspect he won't get the four years he seeks, but he will be good, and another fantasy bargain.

Edinson Volquez (31): Volquez re-established himself last year much like Chris Young the pitcher with the Mariners. He put up the most innings he has tossed since 2008 when he threw 196 frames for the Reds (17-6, 3.21). Did you notice though that the righty was 13-7, 3.04 with a 1.23 WHIP last year? Undervalued is written all over him.

Brett Anderson (26): Crapshoot city for a guy who has only tossed 494 innings over the past six years. But, he has a 3.73 ERA and 1.285 WHIP over that span, and probably has a Rich Harden year of 190 innings and some deadly numbers in there somewhere. One year with an option, maybe, and a reserve pick for your roto team. But, could be pay-dirt with a guy who is talented and brittle and to this point, disappointing and tempting at best.

 
Free Agent Hitters, 2015 PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 08 November 2014 00:00

OK, so the Series is over, and all we really have to comfort us till spring training is football (I can deal), but with the Winter Meetings and Rule 5 draft looming, not to mention reviewing the Arizona Fall League and my Top 250 Prospect List, I thought we could take a couple of Saturdays and look at some of the free agent class of 2015, and their possibilities.

Obviously, barring something goofy, free agents are going to be a bit older, with five years of Major League time under their belts, but I was surprised that the bulk of hitters are past the theoretical prime age (as opposed to pitchers, whom we will review next week), and surprisingly, though age might be an issue in signing most of the FA hitters, health is more of a common denominator.

Hanley Ramirez (SS, 30): I remember back when Hanley was a rookie, and I traded five pretty good guys at the time (including J.J. Hardy and Chris Capuano off his big year) in Strat-O-Matic to get the rights to Hanley, and for two years (along with Ryan Zimmerman) he drove my team. I began an inside out rebuild, swapping both. I have never trusted Hanley since, and I suspect he is asking more than a team will gamble (though I hope not). I do think Hanley can improve on his .283-14-71 line of last year, but I suspect the numbers of 2006-09 might jump out once, but that is now his level. Mind you, that is still pretty good, but it interestingly puts Hanley on par with J.J. Hardy. I would like Hanley to stay with the Dodgers, as it seems like a good fit for him, but I suspect the Yankees will offer him a gob of money to play into the next decade.

Pablo Sandoval (3B, 28): I cannot imagine Pablo in a uniform that doesn't say "Giants" on it. Pablo is actually a pretty good third baseman. True, he is big and does not have huge range, but the Panda has pretty good reflexes and a solid arm. And, he would have to move to first eventually, I wouild think, where the Giants are fat. I do think Sandoval is the cream of this crop of free agent hitters, that he is comparatively healthy, and that he will hit a solid .280-15-85 for the next five years. I am guessing the Yankees offer him a gob of money too, but I hope he stays put.

Nelson Cruz (OF, 34): Cruz hit for a jackpot this year, logging 159 games while belting 40 homers. Cruz also played in 159 contests in 2012, but in those other pesky Saberhagenmetric years, the playing time was way down. Still, Cruz is good for homers in the right-handed Raul Ibanez sense, I believe. I do think Cruz will become the richest of this group by virtue of his 2014 power (will the Yankees offer him a gob of money as well?) and if he signs for five years, he will be worth it. As for where he will actually wind up, there is always Baltimore, but Arizona could surely use some outfield help.

Michael Cuddyer (OF, 35): Cuddyer turns 36 just before Opening Day, and though he surely can hit in Colorado (.331 AVG at Coors over the last two seasons), he's been injured for the most part since 2011, which suggests to buy with caution. I see Cuddy in the AL, DH-ing somewhere like Kansas City, and doing a decent job for a couple of years.

Billy Butler (1B, 28): The Royals did not pick up the option on Butler, whom I think is the slowest Major League runner I have seen (even Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Bengie Molina seem faster), but who could indeed nail doubles and be a pesky hitter. Butler's on-base numbers took a serious hit last year, but he has been more of a free swinger the last couple of years--strikeouts up relative to walks--with drops in power all around. He is still more of a hitter than a 150 at-bat bench player, but Butler is not really an everyday first baseman, which makes for a tough sell.

Alex Rios (OF, 33): Rios fell off the consistency map last year, getting hurt and experiencing a sad four homers, his worst since his 2004 rookie season. Rios will be 34 when the season starts, but he can still be productive I think, and aside from 2014, he has not played in less than 145 games since 2006, and the second fewest of his career. Still, Rios had a pretty well-rounded game with speed and some pop and even some defense. I'm thinking National League here, in fact visualizing him in St. Louis for some reason.

Mike Morse (1B, 32): Morse, who will be 33 by Opening Day, probably found his real niche as a right-handed power threat, mostly outfielder. Morse was useful with the Giants, but he is not much of a solution to much of anything for them in the coming year, and rumor is the Mets and the Reds have an interest. Which is fine. I just hope neither team is expecting more than 120 games.

Rickie Weeks (2B, 32): Weeks hits 20 homers, and his average drops, so he raises his average and his power drops. Still, all things considered, Weeks did not have a bad 2014, with a .274-8-29 line over 252 at-bats. The question is can he hope to do this over 500 at-bats? Obviously if so, it will not be with the Brewers.

Mark Reynolds (3B, 31): A .229 career average--only twice has he hit over .239--although there are those 224 homers, which sort of makes it tough, as he has never hit less than 17 in a season. But not that tough. Reynolds was a late add to the Brewers last year, so he will probably be a late add somewhere else this season. But, he won't be as good as Raul Ibanez, and it probably won't be with the Yankees, even for a small pile of cash.

 
The Desert Draft PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 01 November 2014 00:00

So here we are, back at the BaseballHQ Arizona First Pitch, where Friday evening the sort of first draft of the 2015 season took place as the Experts Fantasy League conducted their 13th auction where I hope I can continue my rebuild and ideally path to a title.

I was able to freeze the maximum 15 players, and got my spots covered pretty well, needing nine players including a first baseman, two outfielders and six pitchers, which gave a lot of flexibility to my choices, although I realized I needed to try and get an impact hitter, and build a rotation.

The XFL draft is so goofy and unlike other drafts, almost impossible for me to read from year-to-year aside from the fact that I have no idea what will happen. For example, the prices are all over the place, and as a result there is no traditional end game to exploit (a favorite tactic of mine).

Anyway, here are some of the interesting players auctioned (meaning not frozen) and their cost with a few thoughts.

Miguel Cabrera ($61): Wow. I had my eyes on Miguel and dropped out at $39. Little did I think that Miggy would jump $22 more, or the cost of Ben Zobrist. I had $96 of total cash so there was no way I could spend that much when I needed starting pitching.

Alex Wood ($16): I love the guy, but thought he would slip through for no more than $12, but I was way wrong.

Lance Lynn ($5): But, then why did Lynn, who is fairly comparable, go for just five bucks? Weird.

Robinson Cano ($41): Lower dingers last year, but hits and all that goes with them, but again, a little too much for my blood considering what I needed.

Alex Gordon ($34): I passed on Zobrist because I thought "if Zobrist goes for $22, I should be able to get Gordon for $23 or so. Hah. So, I missed on both.

Craig Kimbrel ($19): He is good, for sure, but I managed to freeze Kenley Jensen and Sean Doolittle for a collective $22. On the other hand, Glen Perkins went for $7. Go figure.

Mark Teixeira ($2): Sad.

Jason Castro ($3): Wow, I am not sure how this happened but if I had not needed a backstop, I would have happily plunked down $4.

Nick Markakis ($5): While I was sure I could get Gordon for $23 and didn't, I was sure Markakis would cost around $15, though I hoped maybe later in the auction, $12 might do it. Wow. I got him for $5.

 
Disconnected PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 25 October 2014 00:00

"You are an IT Professional," my brother-in-law Eric Hedgecock noted to me earlier in the week when I relayed my tales of streaming woe to him as I tried to figure out how to view the World Series as we spent the week at the mountain home in Soda Springs.

Eric noted this as I was attempted to get the Smart TV in the house to start talking to our Uverse router so I could at least try to watch Sunday football.

As  noted numerous times, our mountain house does have Internet, but nothing else, really. There are a couple of televisions, and a bundle of DVDs to play, and I can get my favorite radio station (KTKE, in Truckee, as it so happens) via any device, but for the most part there is no radio and there is no TV.

With  the best sports weeks of the year on the horizon, I tried to analyze how, among our cable, wi fi, my Surface tablet, two iPhones, two laptops, and a blue ray (also with wi fi), how to simply stream the NFL on Sunday, ESPN on Monday, the Series Tuesday and Wednesday, the NFL Thursday, and then the Series again going into the weekend (I said it was the best sports week).

Thanks to my Sunday Ticket opening up their Max program October 19, I was indeed able to watch the Sunday day games, but I could not find a way to hit up NBC to view the Niners and Broncos (which, bearing in mind the results, might not be a bad thing).

Same Monday night, as I looked for ways to get ESPN on something other than my iPhone with audio. And, though I love my DTV and Sunday Ticket and MLB Extra Innings packages, the company does not yet have a interface that works with Windows-based tablets.  Although, I guess if you want to watch the NFL, then you are ok, which both makes sense, and makes none.

Tuesday morning I scrambled around looking for a way to get the Series, preferably by listening to the Giants main broadcasting corps of Mike Krukow, Duane Kuiper, Jon Miller, and David Flemming, and 30 minutes before the first pitch I got the flagship KNBR station on my tablet.

Since I love listening to baseball on the radio, this was fine, save as soon as 5 PM Pacific Time came, the station blacked out as fast as a Raider home game on the local channel when the game has not sold out. Which is always.

So, I decided to bite the bullet and subscribe to MLB.tv since I would be here for the first four games of the Series, and after three attempts to get my $9.95 charged to my Visa, I finally succeed, only to find out that since I don't have a local Fox feed that I cannot get the video. Even so, I tried to hit the audio, to at least listen to Kruk and Kuip, but as hot as the radio button seemed to be, nada.

Finally, I gave up, and tuned in ESPN radio (oh boy, Aaron Boone, analyst!) on my iPhone via TuneIn Radio, and that is mostly ok until the seventh inning when apparently the buffer filled up and I could do very little but hear Boone discuss how Eric Hosmer was almost a platoon player, and then the third out of the inning. Over and over and over and over.

Thursday was better, as the NFL Network does indeed allow streaming, so I managed to log in using my Sunday Ticket access, but on Friday afternoon, at game time, Fox Sports Go, suggested by my friend George, gave me a soccer match and nothing more.

But, it is crazy. I mean, network TV can still be accessed for free, sans cable. Except here where the mountains get in the way of the signal, so, I can stream what everyone else can see for free for $6 a month or something like, but that seems as wrong as having eight separate electronic devices within one room, and still not be able to connect.

Looks like dinner at the Soda Springs Lodge is the only way to enter the weekend in a reasonable fashion, eh? The food might not be as good as I can make, but they have six screens and all the beer we can buy.

 
Getting Unstuck PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 18 October 2014 00:00

Way back in 2003, when the Xperts Fantasy League had her inaugural season, I remember being so excited when Ron Shandler told me the format.

At the time, it was a 12-team mixed 5x5, a format I had played for a number of years in my first local league, and one in which I had been a dominant team with three titles over the first ten years--including back-to-back crowns in 1996-97--only finishing out of the money twice before I left at around the time the XFL was forming.

Since then, the league has expanded to 15 teams, and invoked a few rules that are both singular to the XFL, and which have been reviewed here over the past few weeks by Brian Walton and me.

The source of those articles involved a combination of dump trading, trying to keep owners active all season, but the bottom line was trying to ensure that all teams had a chance to compete each year.

In the end, after weeks of owner arguments ranging the gamut of human analysis, and spanning around 150 e-mails, we voted and changed almost nothing.

Part of the reason for this was indeed we all became weary of arguments upon arguments, and just wanted to play and be done with it. We could invoke the old"if it ain't broke, don't fix it" aphorism, but I think the words of this year's champ, Jeff Winick, says it best when he quoted Paul McCartney to us: "Let it Be."

What the ultimate lack of rule change really tells me is that the rules and format work just fine as it is, not that there are not owners who would like to see a change, but I think those guys are barking up the wrong tree.

And, I can use myself as a case in point, for I joined the league and made all the moves I always did in my local mixed league for a number of years, finishing worse and worse in the standings as the rules around minor leaguers stratified.

In such a mixed $260 cap format, I was happy to eat stars at premium prices and then forage for the $1 Barry Zitos and Mark Ellis's at the end game, thinking if I drafted shrewdly during our November auction, I had a chance to win every year.

After years of banging my head against the "why doesn't this work anymore" wall, I came to a few realizations.

First is that all the XFL players were simply better players all around than my local league. Not that there was not fine competition in WIFL (Western Internet Fantasy League), but as with most leagues, there were owners not as fixated on winning as the social event of the draft and going to some games. Which is both fine, and which makes up a percentage of most leagues.

Second, and more important, the good owners had learned to seriously exploit the rule of $1 minor leaguers whose salaries only increased by $3 a year as long as retained.

Now, there is a risk with owning too many such prospects, especially if the players need a couple of years to develop, for there are strict rules that do not allow such a prospect to ripen on the minor league vine: we either activate players with more than 20 innings or 50 at-bats, or we lose them.

What the subtext of that really is is that you have to gamble on maybe a handful of such prospects and add the bigger stars, a few at a time at reasonable salaries and ideally after two to three years, this platter will coalesce into a team that will be competitive for a few years before you get to start the rebuild process again.

Three years ago, I did indeed get it through my thick head that this was the way the successful owners did it, and I had to change my approach if I wanted to be a winner (which I really do, especially in this league).

This year, I feel pretty good that my cheap nucleus of Yoenis Cespedes, Mike Zunino, Nick Castellanos and Jedd Gyorko, coupled with some moderate stars like Leonys Martin, Kyle Seager, Matt Kemp, Yan Gomes, and closers Kenley Jansen and Sean Doolittle, will give me enough strength and core balance going into the draft taking place in two weeks at First Pitch Arizona, that I can even move up from the sixth place finish I enjoyed this year, and challenge for a title.

I have to admit that it has been hard both figuring out how to rebuild, and then actually pulling it off in a tough league, not to mention finishing at the bottom for a few seasons was equally difficult to swallow.

But, by being able to pull back and see that the path to success was not what I thought it should--and should, because it defines expectations, is the key word--be, but rather the reality of a different way to play the game.

In other words, like the game on the diamond, I had to adjust.

I do sort of think that the owners in the XFL who are the staunch advocates of those rule changes issue is largely that: that since the game is not conforming to their notion and experience of what a mixed somewhat shallow format should be, by retooling the rules, the end result would indeed make the whole season play out according to those expectations.

I also don't think that is going to happen, as it is pretty clear the bulk of the league likes things the way they are. And, as my team has been improving, I have to say I like them that way too.

 
Just Deal With It PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 11 October 2014 10:20

Last week, my partner Brian Walton channeled Leslie Gore in his It's My Team and I'll Dump if I Need To article, as he charted the woes in the Xperts Fantasy League (XFL) as owners debated rule changes for the coming Halloween draft (to be conducted as part of First Pitch Arizona).

A myriad of thoughts and arguments were presented on how to achieve better parity within the league, ideally so the playing field was a little more even season to season going into said auction.

Mind you, the XFL is mostly an industry league, save arguably the best and most successful pair of owners, Don Drooker and Jeff Winick, who have won four out of the last five titles.

To me one of the reasons I actually run from the moniker "fantasy expert" is that: I can indeed play the game pretty well, and I can write pretty well too which is really how I solidified a spot in the industry. But I am well aware that there are a lot of folks out there who can draft and strategize better than I.

But, I also find there always seems to be a subtext to harping on about rule changes, and that is the change is not so much about parity as it is "but I am having a hard time winning under the existing rules."

I have to confess I have absolutely no patience with that, in this league or in any other.

Sure, owners cheat and that should be dealt with swiftly, and I believe harshly. And, truly, rules can be tricky things for each one actually screams for scrutiny and an angle begging owners to outsmart them.

But, essentially the game is simply the game, just as is baseball on the diamond.

Injuries can kill a squad just as a bad hop or bad trade can. Furthermore, we can pursue the likes of Brandon Wood at all costs, and sometimes Brandon becomes Mike Trout, but more often than not such players turn out to be something between Marlon Byrd and, uh, Brandon Wood.

But, trying to adjust rules in order to somehow account for these pitfalls is just dumb in my opinion for a couple of reasons.

First, baseball, despite its gorgeous body of statistics, is still as unpredictable as those same bad hops. To me, dealing with and adjusting around those bumps is just part of the game. (It is also a metaphor for life, to me.)

Second, the paradox is that old "every solution presents a new problem" conundrum, for surely every time a rule is changed, the possibilities to exploit that solution in a new way--be it good or bad--exists.

Add to that as rules become more layered, they become not just convoluted, but as often at odds with existing rules.

Personally, part of what gets me going in playing in leagues is indeed in watching what the other teams do, for there is usually a sort of mainstream path to success, and then deconstructing said path and trying to figure out a different road to a title by reconfiguring the puzzle pieces that point to victory.

Truth is, I really love doing this, and though as often as not the attempts fail majestically, sometimes there is indeed a blind spot no one saw coming, and ideally the force that drives it is my team.

The bottom line is if we play--especially at a competitive level--we know what it takes to win, and most of the time winning falls within good drafting and management within the construct of the rules.

Regarding the discussion over dump trades, for example, which are business as usual in most leagues, for two years I lived by them working to rebuild, and as my team, which has easily been the worst over the past decade in the XFL, I traded some of my cheap buys shoring up in what I hope is a serious pennant run for the next few years.

I do think keeping rules simple is a solid path, and similarly, when playing any game, changing the rules in order to offset what seems to be an imbalance simply creates more problems and chaos than such a path fixes much of anything.

I truly think the best and most satisfying road to victory is to simply understand the rules as they exist and build the best team you can to succeed within that framework.

Everything else just seems like whining.

 
Does Mellow Mean I am Losing My Edge? PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 04 October 2014 00:00

I will turn 62 at the end of this month. Writing that previous sentence is a very strange out of body experience, for in my head I still feel 24 much of the time. I still play rock and roll live every week, and I watch Adult Swim pretty much every night, so even if my body ages, I am trying to remember the joy and wonder we all get to experience when we first move out of our parent's nest and take a stab at making a mark on the planet.

But, the reality is like it or not, I am staring down the final phases of my time here.

As I go through this odd process of aging, and reflecting, I have been thinking a lot about about the fine line between becoming a cranky old man, and mellowing into what I hope will be akin to some kind of Bohidsatva, patient, and accepting, and mostly kind.

I did pop into this world in Oakland, the year that Topps produced their first baseball cards, and the year "Rashomon" won the best Foreign Film Oscar, which I often think explains my love for Kurosawa films and cards.

But, it wasn't until the late 50's I became enamored of baseball for sure, and as noted before, being contrary, I chose to become a Dodger fan in the heart of Giants territory.

Because of baseball cards, I bought football cards as well, so when my hometown of Oakland actually got an original AFL franchise in 1961, I was a fan right away (funny, because again the area belonged to the Niners, so I could be both contrary and loyal at the same time).

For years, I just loved the hell out of both the Dodgers and Raiders, though I also had flings with other teams (like the Royals, who were my principle Strat-O-Matic team in the late 70's). I mostly kept those allegiances until the 80's, when I started picking weekly NFL winners with my friend Dee Holloway, and then began writing about fantasy.

I learned that the surest way to lose money was to bet on the team you liked, as opposed to the team you thought would win in picking every game with Dee, and then as I began to play fantasy ball, I realized that it was essential to remain objective when assessing player skills.

Over the years, I have really loved it when indeed the Niners or the Athletics or the Giants have done well (not the Raiders, over this span of 20 or so years) but, again, I might admire the same things in a player as Billy Beane, but contrary to public opinion, I don't take his players because they are Athletics. Rather, I take them because they can get on base.

Still, over the past few years, I have felt some degree of sentimentality within. I did follow the Bears pretty closely while Diane and I were carrying on our relationship long distance, but over the past couple of seasons I invariably find myself turning on the Raiders on Sundays (they are not good enough for Monday Night any longer).

It is a tough go, for they are not just awful, but don't seem to have a cohesive plan for how to get out of their swamp of awfulness.

By the same token, a couple of years back, when the Athletics surprised the world by winning the AL West title in 2012, I have so totally enjoyed watching the team coalesce into the dominant squad they were over the first two months of this season.

But, somehow I could feel that the Yoenis Cespedes swap would not bode well (I guess it is the Zen), but I hit a point this late summer where I simply was afraid to watch the team, for every time I would turn them on, something bad would happen. A walk. An error. A seeing eye single or a failed fielders choice (it seemed the A's were always on the losing end, both at bat and in the field). And then usually a homer in there somewhere.

Though the Athletics did squeeze into the postseason, I just had a feeling of doom about them despite the fact that the team had excellent pitching, the real key to playoff success.

True to form, I did start watching the Tuesday game with the Royals, but I had been to the dentist for one of those marathon appointments earlier in the day, so I began dozing off once Oakland dropped their 2-0 lead. Sure enough, I awoke in the 7th to find the Athletics were ahead 7-3, with Jon Lester on the hill, and only a pair of innings for the great bullpen to mow through.

I should have turned the game off right then, but I simply couldn't help myself, however, when the game was knotted at 7-7, and going into extras, I followed Diane's suggestion to turn on the Food Network or "Family Guy" or something. So, I turned the channel (although someone does need to explain to me why Bob Melvin did not stick Sean Doolittle in to face Alex Gordon in the bottom of the 8th, especially knowing he would use his lefty closer for two innings if necessary anyway).

Still, between commercials I would flip the channel back to the Athletics, but again, never at the right time.

I suppose it really was a great and epic game had I both watched, and been able to retain my equanimity, but all I could, and can feel, is the vertigo of lost hopes.

Over the past couple of days, I have been trying to figure out why I have been so ambivalent about the playoffs (though I did watch bits and pieces of the Giants Wednesday) when while messaging with Todd, somehow I blurted out that since the fall of Oakland, I didn't really care who won.

Up until that moment, I guess it had not dawned upon me that like it or not, I was indeed an Oakland fan, baseball and football, and with my mellowing age, that simply rooting for the home team was kind of comforting.

Life is so odd, as is our journey through it.

Since the Athletics are toast, I guess I will simply keep turning on the Raiders every Sunday (it doesn't mean I cannot catch a Seattle game, whom I really enjoy watching) and take my lumps and hope they get the hang one of the next 15-20 years.

It doesn't mean I cannot write objective player profiles.

It just means I am getting too old to fight some things any longer, and old enough to find some comfort in things familiar.

 
A Perfect Season PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 27 September 2014 00:00

I looked at my Tout Wars numbers for today just a little while ago and I am having a great day. 20 innings over three starters, with just two runs and 15 base runners allowed to go with 15 whiffs, and a .433 OBP with a swipe.

But, perhaps my season can be best summed by Chris Archer's performance today: 7.6 innings, three hits, two walks, six whiffs, one earned run, and a loss.

In AL Tout, I have been among the leaders for pretty much the entire season, along with my Mastersball partner Rob Leibowitz, and Rotowire's Jeff Erickson, and all three of us have built strong teams and traded well, while playing a solid FAAB, hanging in the 80-point range virtually all year long.

The problem for us is that Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf, of Fantasy Alarm, have had a nearly perfect season, drafting in what has turned to be a brilliant fashion, getting bargains, but mostly assembling the most consistent team I have ever witnessed.

As I write, Jeff has 81 points, I have 83, and Rob 89 (generally close to enough to win), but Rick and Glenn have an amazing 107.

Got that?

107.

This is in a 12-team 5x5 where the most points a team can possibly grab over a 162-game season is 120, meaning only 13 points elude the Fantasy Alarmers from that perfection.

At present, team Colton/Wolf leads in five categories, are second in one, third in one, fourth in one, and fifth in two.

What is amazing is that their team has been this strong all season.

I had thought maybe when Garrett Richards was injured that perhaps the Fantasy Alarm team would slump just for a few weeks, but instead they picked up a couple of points, buoyed by the emergence of Corey Kluber and Rick Porcello along with Richards' great season helped their well priced pitching support the stellar offense which includes Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Victor Martinez, Albert Pujols and Alex Gordon.

The 107 points Rick and Glenn amassed is easily the most ever, blitzing Sam Walker's 100 points in 2008, and the pair have pretty much run the season in first, something if memory serves, only Jeff Erickson managed in 1999.

Truth is, some years I try things and they work, and some years I try the same things and they fail. Last March in New York, I did the same and it worked to the tune of those 83 points, but just third place, definitely enough to contend every year, except this one.

Congrats guys for a job well done, and an elusive AL Tout title that is equally well deserved! 

 
What's With the Athletics? PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 20 September 2014 00:00

Last Saturday, we were at my friend Mark's, acknowledging the first birthday of his grandson Gavin, as part of a pretty big soiree.

The core of the 50 or so attendees are also regular participants in Mark and his wife Debbi's annual Passover Seder, an annual affair that has grown from four couples and eight folks in 1977 to somewhere around 40 now, and over that time my mates have had children, and as Gavin proves, have even become grandparents.

Needless to say, the generation of Gavin's parents have all grown up with fantasy sports (in fact we now have the Knights of the Passover Table Fantasy Football League) and all are baseball fans, though with clearly divided loyalties between the Giants and the Athletics.

Since the Giants were hopelessly hosting the Dodgers-they would lose 17-0--a lot of the Giants loyalists were absent, leaving me to answer the myriad of queries as to what is wrong with the Athletics.

I wish I knew, though I have my suspicions, just exactly how did a team with a run differential of 120 scores above the next closest team around All Star break time drop to third in the American League in total tallies over just a couple of months?

First and foremost--and as I noted at the time--Oakland vastly underestimated how the presence of Yoenis Cespedes made Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson better hitters.

I do think Billy Beane and his front office brain trust did calculate the team's run production would drop, but also figured that with the addition of Jon Lester to their seemingly strong rotation, the team would be in the position to win more games 3-2 than 7-4.

Furthermore, with such a strong squad at the time, the idea was to maintain and make it to the playoffs, where over a short series pitching generally dominates hitting.

Which was indeed a reasonable assumption irrespective of how the plan has panned out.

But, I think more the team that was crushing it with a 66-41 mark through July simply had not had a slump, something every team endures every year, and the good breaks and timely hits the team was getting the first four months of the season melted away with the trade and the Zen of even breaks that baseball gives us.

In other words, the team has had six bad weeks of play: something that had each bad week occurred after three strong weeks, would not have been as noticeable as the team's slip from front runner to wild card hopeful.

I still have hopes that the Athletics can kick off the jams the last ten days of the season, get into their groove (are they not now due?) and sneak or at least limp into the postseason, giving new life and a chance for the Beane plan to be tested.

But, this is a lot different than I thought it would be, marching into the postseason with another AL West title (that is now gone) and the best record (also a thing of history), so for some reason, this makes it harder to feel confident rooting for the guys.

For so long this season, I had relished Oakland charging into the Series, ultimately facing the Cardinals, the best team in the National League, with John Mozeliak and Beane's team facing off with the best squads and the smartest GM's.

That may well come to fruition, but at this point, I am not any more optimistic that the Athletics can make it that far, let alone beat Adam Wainwright and Matt Adams and company.

I am not really sure anyone can.

 
Nothing Changes, Nothing Changes PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 13 September 2014 00:00

It just so happened that following the Ravens' triumphant victory over the Steelers Thursday night, my favorite sports movie--"North Dallas Forty"--was on cable.

I have seen the film, based upon the novel by former Cowboy Peter Gent, and based based upon the career of Raider great Fred Biletnikoff a bunch of times, particularly right before the Super Bowl because it reminds me about the bottom line between sports and business.

What I love about "North Dallas Forty" is it was the first film to realistically look at pro football, at the machine that drives the game, and the impact upon the players living in the isolated bubble of the NFL.

To a degree, the now infamous Ray Rice incident has certainly pointed to this, as there is surely an "old-boy network" attitude where the league will protect its own, up until a point.

Never before--and the film was made in 1979--had a story been so honest about sex and drugs and racism in professional sports, just like never before had the indulgences of the successful money generating players, like QB Seth Maxwell--played brilliantly by Mac Davis, and loosely based upon Don Meredith--get a blind eye from the powers that be, while an aging and ostensibly interchangeable part like Phil Elliott (Nick Nolte) cannot afford to breathe wrong for fear of being cut.

Within the film, we see the North Dallas Bulls as they go through a week of practice as they prepare for a potential playoff game with the rival Chicago Marauders.

We see the aftermath of Sunday play, a day off and subsequent after-game party that shows menacing athletes howling at the moon in an effort to subvert their own potential weaknesses.

We see the politics and pressure of ownership, publicly embracing rules and lines of decency as long as they don't compete with success, while passively condoning any deviant behaviors as the mood strikes them.

The problem is that the players are as vapid and self indulgent as the front office, making for a freight train of self righteousness and lack of critical thought about the game or how it is administered.

The players, that is save Phil Elliott, who does question and wonder and for the most part see incidents and teammates and coaches largely for what they are, as opposed to what they think, are blissfully ignorant of much of anything beyond their own needs. As long as the team is winning, ownership plays the same head in the sand game.

But, in the 35 years since the film was released, as we have seen over the past few weeks, very little has changed in the front offices aside from the fact that the league has more money and power than ever.

There is a fabulous scene near the end of the film, where a player (no name in the cast, but played by former Raider great, the late Lyle Alzado) reams out coach Johnson (Charles Durning), screaming that every time he calls it a game, they call it a business, and every time he calls it a business, they call it a game.

That says it all, aside from Nolte, at the end of the film, being threatened with release by the team for violating the morals clause of his contract (he is photographed smoking dope with Maxwell by a Dallas policeman who works undercover for the NFL, spying on potential problem players, although no one in the front office or the league seems to be able to recognize the team's QB).

Nolte quits, walking away, noting to his Tom Landry-like coach that it is indeed time to put away childish things.

Somehow, in watching the insane machinations of the league and Roger Goodell over the past months, all the movie does is confirm the worst and most self indulgent about what has become the biggest economic sports entity ($10 billion a year) in our land.

Over the past months, I was watching the great HBO mini series "Rome" with Diane. I watched it when the show was first presented back in 2005, but Diane had never seen it.

Over and over, as we watch petty behaviors and political backstabbing and silly wars waged as much out of ego as anything, I have looked at Diane and said "2000 years ago, and very little has changed in our human nature, save the Roman politicians were a lot more cutthroat and serious than wimpy morons like John McCain and Louis Gomert and Dick Cheney."

So much for nothing changes, everything changes.

If you think it does, I am happy to bet by the football playoffs Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice won't even register a blip and spousal abuse will go back into complacency, under the radar of the interest level of America, being of slightly less notable than the next Super Bowl Budweiser commercial.

 
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