This week, I had the opportunity to participate in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army 12-team PPR draft. The draft was slightly different from the upcoming NFFC drafts in that there was no 3rd Round Reversal. I had the benefit (I think) of having the first overall pick. My strategy going in was to take the best wide receivers through at least the first three rounds and see where we end up with running backs.
1) Antonio Brown – WR - This was pretty much a no-brainer selection.
2) Randall Cobb – WR – Expecting a rebound season from Cobb with Jordy Nelson back.
3) Brandon Marshall – WR – Long-time Marshall fan. Expecting Ryan Fitzpatrick back at QB.
4) Jordan Matthews – WR - This was the first real decision point. Is the selection a fourth wide receiver or a first running back? Time will tell. The running back pick would have been DeMarco Murray, who was selected at 4.05.
5) Danny Woodhead – RB – Definitely a player I was looking for at the 4-5 turn. Dion Lewis went at 3.08 and Duke Johnson went at 4.09.
6) Rashad Jennings – RB – Looking for a second running back that has a pretty good hold of a job with regular work.
7) Drew Brees – QB – Another key decision point. Is the pick a quarterback or the next tier tight end? I passed on Delanie Walker, who was taken with the very next pick. There was a run on tight ends, which led me to…
8) Zach Ertz – TE – He was great at the very end of 2015. Still looking for a little consistency. In hindsight, Delanie Walker would have been a better choice than Brees in round 7. I really like Eli Manning to put up big numbers this year and he didn’t go until round 10.
9) Jay Ajayi – RB – Was going in round 6 before the Dolphins signed Arian Foster (who went at pick 7.09). The Dolphins are claiming “time-share”, which is fine with me given Foster’s injury history.
10) Devontae Booker – RB – Time to reach a little. If you are not going to take your first running back until round 5, you better get some guys with big potential.
11) Chris Hogan – WR – Why did it seem so obvious that he would end up with the Patriots?
12) Jameis Winston – QB – Expecting a big sophomore season.
13) Rishard Matthews – WR – As a sixth wide receiver, he has a chance to become Marcus Mariota’s safety blanket.
14) Jerick McKinnon – RB – Has a ton of talent and was well worth a shot in round 14.
15) Andre Ellington – RB – An injury to David Johnson could open the door for really big numbers.
16) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – TE – Has been a huge injury disappointment so far in his career. We will see if he clicks with Winston.
17) Andre Roberts – WR – The number three wide receiver on an offense on the rise.
18) Brandon McManus – K – Gotta have a kicker.
19) New York Jets – Def – And we have to use a defense.
20) Quinton Patton – WR – Has been a pet-pick of mine before. With Anquan Boldin gone and no real replacements, maybe Patton excels in Chip Kelly’s system.
Week 17 is tricky from a DFS standpoint. Several teams are locked into playoff spots and have every reason to rest starters or severely limit snaps.
Stay off Redskins and Seahawks. No Jordan Reed, no Kirk Cousins. They are locked in the four seed. The Seahawks are locked into the five or six seed. Assuming that they do not care which seed they are, they could limit snaps for their starters.
All other playoff teams have at least seeding in play. The Patriots are playing for the number one seed. The Bengals are still playing for the two seed. The Broncos and Chiefs are still playing for the division/wild card and both play late. Houston and Indy are still playing for the division and both play early. The Jets and Steelers are still playing for a playoff spot and both play early. The Panthers and Cardinals are playing for the number one seed. The Vikings and Packers play Sunday night for the division/wild card.
Several players on non-contenders have a chance for personal milestones or league records. I can see scenarios where teams will force-feed certain players if those milestones come into reach.
Odell Beckham Jr. needs nine receptions to reach 100. I see the Giants making sure he hits that number.
Julio Jones (127 receptions) and Antonio Brown (123 receptions) are both in sight of the single-season record of 143 receptions, although it is a stretch. I believe Julio has a much better chance facing the Saints with nothing on the line for the Falcons.
Julio Jones at 1,722 yards receiving is 242 yards away from the single-season record and 278 yards away from 2,000. While those are huge numbers, don’t you believe that if the Falcons really want Julio to get the record, they could not at least get close?
DeAngelo Williams (101 yards) and Frank Gore (109 yards) are both within range of 1,000 rushing yards. Lamar Miller is 188 yards away, but remember he rushed for almost 200 yards in Week 17 last season.
Lastly, Doug Martin is 64 rushing yards behind Adrian Peterson for the NFL rushing title. The Bucs could force additional carries to Martin if he is having success, but that will be challenging against Carolina.
|Cam Newton||Car||7500||Cam needs to play so that the Panthers can secure home field all thru playoffs|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Pit||6900||Threw a week 16 dud with huge ownership. Will rebound with slim playoff hope|
|Drew Brees||NO||6700||Injury was a non-factor. Falcons offer little defense|
|Blake Bortles||Jax||6700||At least 25 points in five straight.|
|Matthew Stafford||Det||6200||Nice match-up to finish the season|
|Eli Manning||NYG||5600||Beckham returns.|
|Matt Ryan||Atl||5500||Gets the Saints to finish a disappointing season on a high note|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick||NYJ||5400||Keep an eye on Buffalo weather, but Fitz in a good spot and still cheap|
|Sam Bradford||Phi||5300||A little off-the-grid, but the Giants clearly quit last Sunday against Minnesota|
|Devonta Freeman||Atl||7600||Looks to cap off one of the top surprise stories of the season|
|Todd Gurley||StL||7400||No reason for Rams to stop playing|
|DeAngelo Williams||Pit||7100||Up into unchartered price territory. Only one who showed against the Ravens|
|Charcandrick West||KC||5700||Still cheap enough to consider|
|Tim Hightower||NO||5500||Getting big volume in Saints offense. A real late season success story|
|Denard Robinson||Jax||5400||Fumbles will eventually get him out of the league, but we only care about this week|
|Danny Woodhead||SD||5000||Woodhead has returned big in the Chargers passing game|
|James White||NE||5000||Tough to watch with low volume, but the pass receptions add up|
|Darren McFadden||Dal||4900||About the only thing that went right for Cowboys this season|
|Karlos Williams||Buf||4800||Split touches but there were plenty against the Cowboys, very iffy this week|
|Bilal Powell||NYJ||4500||Check injury report as he came out late in the Patriots game.|
|Javorius Allen||Bal||4400||Strong game one week after being benched due to early fumble|
|Antonio Brown||Pit||9300||Steelers wont disappoint again|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||NYG||9000||Beckham returns with a vengence. Needs 9 catches for 100 on the season|
|Julio Jones||Atl||8500||Lit up Panthers and now gets the worst defense in the NFL. Single season records?|
|DeAndre Hopkins||Hou||8400||Dislike QB situation. Should be low ownership GPP option|
|Brandon Marshall||NYJ||7900||Thought Pats could take him out. Wrong|
|Allen Robinson||Jax||7800||Coming up huge|
|Sammy Watkins||Buf||6700||Might be first time this season Watkins hits my list. Five straight solid games|
|Eric Decker||NYJ||6500||Been excellent all season. Not the volume of Marshall, but scores TDs|
|Brandin Cooks||NO||6400||Red hot lately|
|Golden Tate||Det||6400||Small hiccup in week 16 but not terrible. Good candidate to rebound|
|Allen Hurns||Jax||5600||Not much statistically different from Robinson but $2200 cheaper|
|Kamar Aiken||Bal||5400||Becoming a viable cash game option. 38 catches in past six games|
|Martavis Bryant||Pit||5300||Loat 80 yard TD that would have looked great in the box score|
|Jordan Matthews||Phi||4700||58 points in past two and faces porous Giants defense|
|Willie Snead||NO||4400||Should score 3x in his sleep|
|Rob Gronkowski||NE||7400||Has to stay in the mix with limited other options in New England|
|Greg Olsen||Car||6800||Still throws in some clunkers but pretty solid 2x floor|
|Jordan Reed||Was||6500||Great in past three. Not sure how Redskins use starters in week 17|
|Delanie Walker||Ten||5600||More than 2x price in 12 of 14 games|
|Julius Thomas||Jax||4900||Overshadowed by Robinson and Hurns|
|Travis Kelce||KC||4700||Good in week 16. Inconsistent targets makes him a GPP-only option|
|Zach Miller||Chi||4600||Going up in price but still sold for 2x-3x price|
|Will Tye||NYG||4000||Burned many in week 16 after double-digit points in five straight games|
|Zach Ertz||Phi||3600||26 catches in past three games|
|Broncos||Den||4000||Broncos need the win|
|Chiefs||KC||4000||KC still playing to win|
|Panthers||Car||3600||Look to rebound off two poor performances|
|Steelers||Pit||3500||Will be highly motivated to rebound|
|Patriots||NE||3200||Dolphins offense has been a mess|
|Rams||StL||3000||Lowest Vegas total I have seen all season|
|Vikings||MIN||2200||Vikings defense has been strong and Aaron Rodgers has not been good|
MY CURRENT LINEUP
|Odell Beckham Jr.||WR||NYG||9000|
Keep trusting the process. That is my message after a losing Week 14 for me. I have consciously tried as this season has gone on to avoid the urge to tinker with my lineup. Sure, I considered swapping out Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.J. Yeldon, Delanie Walker and the Browns defense for Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the Seahawks defense. But I was able to avoid the temptation.
I went back and forth all week on Vincent Jackson vs. Doug Baldwin, both priced at $4,500. I liked V-Jax a little more from the outset, expecting and up and down battle against the Saints while the expectation was for the Seahawks to get a big lead and run the clock to grind out the game. Even during the week when I heard V-Jax was battling a knee injury, I stuck with him when he was declared active on Sunday. Well, that cost me 31 points and a virtual guaranteed score above the payline.
With only Danny Amendola left on my roster at flex and being below the pay line, I correctly figured that there was no way to move above the cash line with Amendola’s ownership expected to be around 50%. So I had just enough money to go from Amendola to Lamar Miller. I felt like a genius at halftime on Monday night when Miller had scored two touchdowns to move me above the cash line.
My big fear then turned to the high ownership on Odell Beckham Jr. While the ownership was near 50%, all I really needed in the second half was for Beckham to not go bonkers and for the Dolphins to keep giving Miller a chance to run. Someone needs to explain how the Dolphins could go almost exclusive pass in the second half (Miller had five carries), leading to more opportunity for Beckham. We know that the Dolphins forgot to cover him on the 84-yard catch (just a minor mix-up) and the rest is history.
But somehow on Tuesday morning, in spite of losing, I didn’t feel as bad as I did after the early games on Sunday. My brain really hurt for messing up the V-Jax-Baldwin call, but I felt at least I played the end game correctly in getting off Amendola and on to Miller (even though the Dolphins refused to cooperate).
If they can contain Beckham, they can get some points
|Tom Brady||NE||7800||At least 23 in all but three games (and they were not bad)|
|Cam Newton||Car||7800||Now with Brady as highest priced QB.|
|Carson Palmer||Ari||7000||At least 23 points in four of past five|
|Russell Wilson||Sea||7000||Offense opened up after Lynch injury. 16 TD passes in past four games|
|Drew Brees||NO||6600||Started season at $8000. At least 38 pass attempts in all but one game|
|Matthew Stafford||Det||6100||Benefits against Saints defense. Nine TDs in past three games|
|Blake Bortles||Jax||6100||Continues to put up huge passing numbers. Ten TDs in past three. Still cheap|
|Marcus Mariota||Ten||5500||Expect Ten to be playing from behind|
|A.J. McCarron||Cin||5400||Says he is as good as Brady. Good match-up to prove it|
|Devonta Freeman||Atl||7500||Falcons have struggled to no end, but Jax defense is not very good|
|Adrian Peterson||Min||7100||Dependable TD threat. Not catching as many passes as in the past|
|DeAngelo Williams||Pit||6600||23+ points in three straight|
|David Johnson||Ari||5700||24 touches in each of the past two games|
|Shaun Draughn||SF||4600||Disappointing with only two receptions last game after 5-5-8 in previous three|
|Denard Robinson||Jax||4600||Solid in place of Yeldon last week. Effective pass catcher last season|
|James White||NE||4600||Good option with Blount out|
|Javorius Allen||Bal||4500||Surprising huge $800 price drop coming off bad Seattle game. 30-18-16 in three prior|
|Ronnie Hillman||Den||4300||Consider if C.J. is out again|
|Darren Sproles||Phi||4200||Getting a little pricey but scores from all over|
|Theo Riddick||Det||4000||At least five catches in 4 straight|
|Tim Hightower||NO||3900||Nowhere else to get 28 carries for this cheap. Touchdown saved the day|
|Antonio Brown||Pit||8700||Tough match-up with Denver|
|Julio Jones||Atl||8500||Cheapest he has been all season. Just not scoring TDs|
|DeAndre Hopkins||Hou||8500||Shaky QB play catching up with him|
|A.J. Green||Cin||7900||A.J. to A.J. right out of the box. New QB might work out just fine|
|Allen Robinson||Jax||7600||Only catch last week was a short TD. Nice bounce back chance vs. struggling Falcons|
|Alshon Jeffery||Chi||7300||Finally appears to be healthy. Might be in for a strong finish|
|Jarvis Landry||Mia||6300||Can't beat 18 targets (after a two-catch game). Dolphins are a mess on offense|
|Doug Baldwin||Sea||5800||Price up $2000 in two weeks. A three-game monster stretch with 8 TDs|
|Danny Amendola||NE||5700||Up $1700 in past month. Gronk back. Harder to earn 3x at advanced price|
|Allen Hurns||Jax||5600||Cheap compared to teammate Robinson. Big play ability|
|Golden Tate||Det||5500||Up $1000 off of four straight with 7+ receptions. Still a good price|
|Kamar Aiken||Bal||4600||Six straight at more than 2x this price. KC tough matchup, but so was Seattle|
|Michael Floyd||Ari||4400||Over 20 points in four of past five|
|Tyler Lockett||Sea||4200||Up $1200 in two weeks. Can score from anywhere|
|Malcom Floyd||SD||3500||Health risk, but up against mangled Dolphins secondary|
|Rob Gronkowski||NE||7700||Brady running out of options. Still some nice cheaper options, but due for big game|
|Jordan Reed||Was||5900||Big $800 price jump. Sees a ton of targets. Next tier TE getting pricey|
|Delanie Walker||Ten||5600||At least three receptions in every game. At least 2x this price in every game but two|
|Ben Watson||NO||4800||Great surprise season. Getting pricey for his floor|
|Julius Thomas||Jax||4700||TD in four straight|
|Antonio Gates||SD||4600||Nice price on team void of weapons against a bad defense|
|Richard Rodgers||GB||4300||Has a low floor and high ceiling in shaky Packers offense. Raiders bad vs. TE|
|Zach Miller||Chi||3600||Even up $900 still a nice option with Bennett out|
|Will Tye||NYG||3100||Double-digit points in four straight games for dirt cheap|
|Seahawks||Sea||4200||Rounding into form. Manziel turns the ball over trying to make plays|
|Cardinals||Ari||3900||Chance for a big score|
|Chiefs||KC||3700||Face the QB challenged Ravens|
|Patriots||NE||3700||Figures to get turnovers with a big lead|
|Bengals||Cin||3400||49'ers a little better at home but not much|
|Panthers||Car||3300||If they can contain Beckham, they can get some points|
MY CURRENT LINEUP
After 15 weeks, my DFS confidence level is as high as ever. While confidence does not guarantee a win, I feel like I now understand the psychology of cash games and have settled on a roster configuration and game choice that seems to make sense.
QB – Sure, the top-tier guys like Tom Brady have great floor values. But the price you pay appears to put too much stress on other parts of your roster. I have been targeting QBs in the $6K-$6.5K range like Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They don’t have to kill it – 250 yards passing and two TDs is just fine for their price.
RB – Every time I paid top-dollar for what seemed like a guaranteed floor, I got burned. So I have settled on cheap running backs with the emphasis on cheap. $10K for both would be great. I might be a tad over this week with David Johnson a must play in cash games due to an expected off-the-chart ownership.
WR – Pay up if you can. The majority of top weekly scores come from the WR position. Each week, at least one of the top guys goes over 40. At least $18K (or 36%) of your budget should go here.
TE – Sure, it is great to have the floor provided by Rob Gronkowski, but like Brady, you have to pay a severe price. While there is some risk, there have been plenty of tight ends under $5K that are consistently earning 2-3x price.
Flex – The flex spot should be a wide receiver if at all possible. A wide receiver can earn their value for the week with one TD catch.
Defense – Very much of a crapshoot as I have yet to find a formula that provides any kind of consistency in rostering a defense that will score 8-12 points. I have been trying to stick with favored home teams against what appear to be weakling offenses.
Lineups – I tinkered early in the season with multiple lineups in cash games. That did not work very well for me. The past several weeks, I have focused on fielding one single lineup in all cash games.
Game Selection – Early in the year, I was chasing the million dollar prize, allocating 25-30% of our weekly budget to GPP tournaments. That failed miserably, as you may have figured. The past several weeks, I have played strictly cash games with the focus primarily on single-entry games with good success. I typically enter several $10, 113-entry double up contests, several $5, 227-entry double ups, and the big $25 double up for a total of $100 in entries.
|Tom Brady||NE||7500||Lack of weapons hurting ceiling. Floor of 18 is pretty solid|
|Cam Newton||Car||7500||No rationale for $300 price drop. Has scored 111 points over past three weeks|
|Russell Wilson||Sea||7200||Offense opened up after Lynch injury. 19 TD passes in past five games|
|Carson Palmer||Ari||7000||Johnson 3 rush TD limited Palmer in week 15. Just bad luck|
|Drew Brees||NO||6800||Great match-up but foot injury is of concern|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Pit||6800||Explosive offense against bad Ravens team|
|Blake Bortles||Jax||6500||At least 25 points in four straight. Another strong matchup|
|Matthew Stafford||Det||6100||Benefits against Saints defense. 12 TDs in past four games|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick||NYJ||5200||Continues to be woefully underpriced|
|Teddy Bridgewater||Min||5200||Need a strong stomach, but coming off big game against weak Giants pass defense|
|Doug Martin||TB||6600||Martin has been racking up yards and Chicago is no run stopper|
|DeAngelo Williams||Pit||6500||16.6 preceded by 23+ points in three straight|
|Matt Forte||Chi||6500||Still split with Langford but dependable receiver|
|David Johnson||Ari||5800||Might have the highest cash game ownership of the season. Was 50% last week|
|Charcandrick West||KC||5700||Solid as long as Ware is hobbled|
|Denard Robinson||Jax||5400||Up $2400 in two weeks. Worth it if he is good to go on Sunday with Yeldon out|
|James White||NE||4700||Won't get a lot of carries, but 21 receptions in past three games. Jets stop the run|
|Tim Hightower||NO||4500||Not a big fan, but he is getting the touches|
|Karlos Williams||Buf||4500||Inexpensive option expected to see 15-20 touches|
|Cameron Artis-Payne||Car||4300||Saw a lot of carries when Panthers were up big. Figure to be up again|
|Shane Vereen||NYG||3900||Cheap option, more of a GPP play|
|Bilal Powell||NYJ||3900||At least 19 points in three straight. Heavily involved in receiving situations|
|Antonio Brown||Pit||9300||Top dollar but seemingly unstoppable at this point|
|DeAndre Hopkins||Hou||8400||Dislike QB situation. Should be low ownership GPP option|
|Allen Robinson||Jax||7500||Pretty high floor. Would not be surprised to see Bortles throw 50 times|
|Mike Evans||TB||7300||Evans always scares me due to the drops. No excuse without Jackson|
|Doug Baldwin||Sea||6700||Price up $2700 in three weeks. A four-game monster stretch with 10 TDs|
|Sammy Watkins||Buf||6700||Might be first time this season Watkins hits my list. Four straight solid games|
|Eric Decker||NYJ||6500||Been excellent all season. Pats figure to focus on taking Marshall out of the game|
|Brandin Cooks||NO||5900||Been inconsistent - sometimes below 10, other times over 20. Sounds like a GPP option|
|Golden Tate||Det||5800||Nice five-game stretch with Calvin struggling|
|Martavis Bryant||Pit||5600||Averaging almost 20 ppg and still only $5600|
|Kamar Aiken||Bal||5400||Becoming a viable cash game option. 30 catches over past five games|
|John Brown||Ari||5300||Five straight good games. Might finally be healthy|
|Michael Floyd||Ari||4900||Over 20 points in four of past six. Just missed TD on great catch at the 1-yard line last week|
|Willie Snead||NO||4500||Back in form over past two games|
|Tyler Lockett||Sea||4500||Up $1500 in three weeks. Can score from anywhere. Seeing more targets|
|Rob Gronkowski||NE||7600||Has to stay in the mix with limited other options in New England|
|Greg Olsen||Car||7000||Still throws in some clunkers but pretty solid 2x floor|
|Delanie Walker||Ten||5600||Finally broke streak of every game with 3+ catches. But both catches went for TDs|
|Ben Watson||NO||5300||Was not heavily involved on Monday until scoring a late TD|
|Julius Thomas||Jax||5100||Heavily targeted in past five. Still reasonable price|
|Travis Kelce||KC||4300||Inconsistent targets makes him a GPP-only option|
|Zach Miller||Chi||4000||Last minute of garbage time last week made his game. Still good price|
|Will Tye||NYG||3500||Double-digit points in five straight games for dirt cheap|
|Eric Ebron||Det||2900||Tough to trust but only needs three catches to earn $2900|
|Seahawks||Sea||4300||Stop Gurley and they are money in the bank|
|Chiefs||KC||4200||Good chance for big points on turnovers off Manziel|
|Panthers||Car||3700||Expect them to turn over and sack Falcons|
|Steelers||Pit||3100||Not a great defense, but a great situation|
|Texans||Hou||2800||I worry about their offense, but no Mariotta for Tenn|
|Lions||Det||2800||Home vs. SF in low total game|
MY CURRENT LINEUP
The problem this week is that the cheap running backs all went up in price. If you want at least two high-priced wide receivers, you are left with Shaun Draughn at $4800 and T.J. Yeldon at $4900. Now on Wednesday, we are hit with the dilemma of Saints running back Mark Ingram going on IR, leaving C.J. Spiller ($3000) as the lead back. Maybe in GPP, but I am not touching him in cash games.
We are in the mode of hitting a formula that has worked, so we are sticking with it. Cheap at QB and RB, paying up for WR and TE, playing the same cash games, primarily single entry $5 and $10 contests.
|Tom Brady||NE||7800||At least 23 in all but two games. Doing it with mirrors|
|Cam Newton||Car||7500||Wow. Now very pricy after 5 TD passes in two of past three|
|Aaron Rodgers||GB||7000||Ground game is a mess|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Pit||6800||In a zone past four. Key divisional game vs. Cin|
|Russell Wilson||Sea||6300||Offense opened up after Lynch injury. Finally seeing the Wilson expected|
|Blake Bortles||Jax||6000||Continues to put up huge passing numbers|
|Jameis Winston||TB||5500||Benefits against Saints defense. Effective run game minimizes attempts.|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick||NYJ||5400||2+ TDs in 10 of 12. Near 3x floor|
|Brock Osweiler||Den||5200||Might get the chains off if Oakland can score some points|
|Matt Forte||Chi||6800||Langford and now Carey near goal line pose a risk|
|Doug Martin||TB||6200||Ton of touches but lack of TDs and receptions make for better options|
|LeSean McCoy||Buf||6100||At least 18 touches past seven. 2x price in seven straight. Revenge game|
|DeAngelo Williams||Pit||6000||23, 24, and 41 in three of past four. Still good value at price|
|Jonathan Stewart||Car||5800||Up $500. Consistently good since Week 6. Lack of receptions a concern|
|Thomas Rawls||Sea||5800||Up $1300 over two weeks. Nice matchup with Ravens. Still good value|
|Lamar Miller||Mia||5700||Under 10 in half the games. Well under new OC.|
|Javorius Allen||Bal||5300||Can't explain $100 drop off monster game. May be only weapon vs. Seattle|
|Darren McFadden||Dal||5000||Thrown in some duds, but still best Cowboys offensive weapon|
|T.J. Yeldon||Jax||4900||Solid touches. Needs more red zone carries|
|Shaun Draughn||SF||4800||Big price jump. Very solid floor. Not a big reach to get 3x this price|
|Ronnie Hillman||Den||4700||If CJ is out. Good matchup|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||NYG||9100||Must do a lot to earn 3x. But Giants have no running game|
|Antonio Brown||Pit||8900||Scored at least 40 points in three of last four|
|Allen Robinson||Jax||8000||Big price jump. Liked him a lot more with Hurns out|
|Brandon Marshall||NYJ||7600||TDs in 9 of 12 but now paying the price for them|
|Calvin Johnson||Det||7400||At least five catches in 10 of 12 games|
|Mike Evans||TB||7200||Has to be on this list vs. Saints, but he is much higher than his teammate|
|Alshon Jeffery||Chi||6900||Disappointing last week vs 49ers|
|Eric Decker||NYJ||6400||2x this price every week except two (and was close to 2x on those weeks)|
|Brandin Cooks||NO||6200||At least four catches every week. Lower floor and higher ceiling than Decker|
|Sammy Watkins||Buf||6100||Very much GPP play. Two strong games in a row, but two before were brutal|
|Danny Amendola||NE||5200||Up $1000 but appears to be worth it as the primary Brady target|
|Vincent Jackson||TB||4500||Looks like best deal of the week. 2X three weeks in a row and now gets Saints|
|Doug Baldwin||Sea||4500||Stud games in three of past four. No reason to stop now|
|DeVante Parker||Mia||4000||Big price jump but still cheap. Not a lot of volume here|
|Dorial Green-Beckham||Ten||3700||Cheap inconsistent GPP play|
|Greg Olsen||Car||6900||Game not expected to be as wide open as last week|
|Delanie Walker||Ten||5600||At least three receptions in every game. Fluky price drop after 23-point game|
|Jordan Reed||Was||5100||Disappointing Monday night clunker was out of the ordinary|
|Travis Kelce||KC||4700||Too good to have scored in single digits in three of four games|
|Ben Watson||NO||4400||Saints starting to find other weapons|
|Julius Thomas||Jax||4200||Starting to find the end zone on a regular basis|
|Richard Rodgers||GB||3900||Surprisingly becoming a reliable Aaron Rodgers target|
|Scott Chandler||NE||3800||Effective replacing Gronk|
|Austin Seferian-Jenkins||TB||2700||Finally returned but not quite in flow. Saints come marching in this week|
|Patriots||NE||3500||Only 2 of last week's touchdowns allowed were by the defense|
|Seahawks||Sea||3500||Face either Matt "pick six" Schaub or Jimmy Clausen|
|Broncos||Den||3400||Continue to be opportunistic on defense|
|Panthers||Car||3400||Falcons have been a mess since Week 6
|Packers||GB||3200||Faces the offensively-challenged Cowboys|
|Chiefs||KC||3200||Dominated the Chargers just a few short weeks ago|
|Browns||CLE||2600||Cheap home option vs. bad offense