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Thursday 30th Jun 2016

Week 17 is tricky from a DFS standpoint. Several teams are locked into playoff spots and have every reason to rest starters or severely limit snaps.

Stay off Redskins and Seahawks. No Jordan Reed, no Kirk Cousins. They are locked in the four seed. The Seahawks are locked into the five or six seed. Assuming that they do not care which seed they are, they could limit snaps for their starters.

All other playoff teams have at least seeding in play. The Patriots are playing for the number one seed. The Bengals are still playing for the two seed. The Broncos and Chiefs are still playing for the division/wild card and both play late. Houston and Indy are still playing for the division and both play early. The Jets and Steelers are still playing for a playoff spot and both play early. The Panthers and Cardinals are playing for the number one seed. The Vikings and Packers play Sunday night for the division/wild card.

Several players on non-contenders have a chance for personal milestones or league records. I can see scenarios where teams will force-feed certain players if those milestones come into reach.

Odell Beckham Jr. needs nine receptions to reach 100. I see the Giants making sure he hits that number.

Julio Jones (127 receptions) and Antonio Brown (123 receptions) are both in sight of the single-season record of 143 receptions, although it is a stretch. I believe Julio has a much better chance facing the Saints with nothing on the line for the Falcons.

Julio Jones at 1,722 yards receiving is 242 yards away from the single-season record and 278 yards away from 2,000. While those are huge numbers, don’t you believe that if the Falcons really want Julio to get the record, they could not at least get close?

DeAngelo Williams (101 yards) and Frank Gore (109 yards) are both within range of 1,000 rushing yards. Lamar Miller is 188 yards away, but remember he rushed for almost 200 yards in Week 17 last season.

Lastly, Doug Martin is 64 rushing yards behind Adrian Peterson for the NFL rushing title. The Bucs could force additional carries to Martin if he is having success, but that will be challenging against Carolina.

QUARTERBACK
Cam Newton Car 7500 Cam needs to play so that the Panthers can secure home field all thru playoffs
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6900 Threw a week 16 dud with huge ownership.  Will rebound with slim playoff hope
Drew Brees NO 6700 Injury was a non-factor.  Falcons offer little defense
Blake Bortles Jax 6700 At least 25 points in five straight.
Matthew Stafford Det 6200 Nice match-up to finish the season
Eli Manning NYG 5600 Beckham returns.
Matt Ryan Atl 5500 Gets the Saints to finish a disappointing season on a high note
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 5400 Keep an eye on Buffalo weather, but Fitz in a good spot and still cheap
Sam Bradford Phi 5300 A little off-the-grid, but the Giants clearly quit last Sunday against Minnesota
RUNNING BACK
Devonta Freeman Atl 7600 Looks to cap off one of the top surprise stories of the season
Todd Gurley StL 7400 No reason for Rams to stop playing
DeAngelo Williams Pit 7100 Up into unchartered price territory.  Only one who showed against the Ravens
Charcandrick West KC 5700 Still cheap enough to consider
Tim Hightower NO 5500 Getting big volume in Saints offense.  A real late season success story
Denard Robinson Jax 5400 Fumbles will eventually get him out of the league, but we only care about this week
Danny Woodhead SD 5000 Woodhead has returned big in the Chargers passing game
James White NE 5000 Tough to watch with low volume, but the pass receptions add up
Darren McFadden Dal 4900 About the only thing that went right for Cowboys this season
Karlos Williams Buf 4800 Split touches but there were plenty against the Cowboys, very iffy this week
Bilal Powell NYJ 4500 Check injury report as he came out late in the Patriots game.
Javorius Allen Bal 4400 Strong game one week after being benched due to early fumble
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Brown Pit 9300 Steelers wont disappoint again
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 9000 Beckham returns with a vengence.  Needs 9 catches for 100 on the season
Julio Jones Atl 8500 Lit up Panthers and now gets the worst defense in the NFL.  Single season records?
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 8400 Dislike QB situation.  Should be low ownership GPP option
Brandon Marshall NYJ 7900 Thought Pats could take him out.  Wrong
Allen Robinson Jax 7800 Coming up huge
Sammy Watkins Buf 6700 Might be first time this season Watkins hits my list.  Five straight solid games
Eric Decker NYJ 6500 Been excellent all season.  Not the volume of Marshall, but scores TDs
Brandin Cooks NO 6400 Red hot lately
Golden Tate Det 6400 Small hiccup in week 16 but not terrible.  Good candidate to rebound
Allen Hurns Jax 5600 Not much statistically different from Robinson but $2200 cheaper
Kamar Aiken Bal 5400 Becoming a viable cash game option.  38 catches in past six games
Martavis Bryant Pit 5300 Loat 80 yard TD that would have looked great in the box score
Jordan Matthews Phi 4700 58 points in past two and faces porous Giants defense
Willie Snead NO 4400 Should score 3x in his sleep
TIGHT END
Rob Gronkowski NE 7400 Has to stay in the mix with limited other options in New England
Greg Olsen Car 6800 Still throws in some clunkers but pretty solid 2x floor
Jordan Reed Was 6500 Great in past three.  Not sure how Redskins use starters in week 17
Delanie Walker Ten 5600 More than 2x price in 12 of 14 games
Julius Thomas Jax 4900 Overshadowed by Robinson and Hurns
Travis Kelce KC 4700 Good in week 16. Inconsistent targets makes him a GPP-only option
Zach Miller Chi 4600 Going up in price but still sold for 2x-3x price
Will Tye NYG 4000 Burned many in week 16 after double-digit points in five straight games
Zach Ertz Phi 3600 26 catches in past three games
DEFENSE
Broncos Den 4000 Broncos need the win
Chiefs KC 4000 KC still playing to win
Panthers Car 3600 Look to rebound off two poor performances
Steelers Pit 3500 Will be highly motivated to rebound
Patriots NE 3200 Dolphins offense has been a mess
Rams StL 3000 Lowest Vegas total I have seen all season
Vikings MIN 2200 Vikings defense has been strong and Aaron Rodgers has not been good

MY CURRENT LINEUP

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ 5400
Tim Hightower RB NO 5500
Javorius Allen RB Bal 4400
Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 9000
Julio Jones WR Atl 8500
Jordan Matthews WR Phi 4700
Zach Miller TE Chi 4600
Martavis Bryant FL Pit 5300
Vikings DST Min 2200

After 15 weeks, my DFS confidence level is as high as ever. While confidence does not guarantee a win, I feel like I now understand the psychology of cash games and have settled on a roster configuration and game choice that seems to make sense.

QB – Sure, the top-tier guys like Tom Brady have great floor values. But the price you pay appears to put too much stress on other parts of your roster. I have been targeting QBs in the $6K-$6.5K range like Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They don’t have to kill it – 250 yards passing and two TDs is just fine for their price.

RB – Every time I paid top-dollar for what seemed like a guaranteed floor, I got burned. So I have settled on cheap running backs with the emphasis on cheap.  $10K for both would be great. I might be a tad over this week with David Johnson a must play in cash games due to an expected off-the-chart ownership.

WR – Pay up if you can. The majority of top weekly scores come from the WR position. Each week, at least one of the top guys goes over 40. At least $18K (or 36%) of your budget should go here.

TE – Sure, it is great to have the floor provided by Rob Gronkowski, but like Brady, you have to pay a severe price. While there is some risk, there have been plenty of tight ends under $5K that are consistently earning 2-3x price.

Flex – The flex spot should be a wide receiver if at all possible. A wide receiver can earn their value for the week with one TD catch.

Defense – Very much of a crapshoot as I have yet to find a formula that provides any kind of consistency in rostering a defense that will score 8-12 points. I have been trying to stick with favored home teams against what appear to be weakling offenses.

Lineups – I tinkered early in the season with multiple lineups in cash games. That did not work very well for me. The past several weeks, I have focused on fielding one single lineup in all cash games.

Game Selection – Early in the year, I was chasing the million dollar prize, allocating 25-30% of our weekly budget to GPP tournaments. That failed miserably, as you may have figured. The past several weeks, I have played strictly cash games with the focus primarily on single-entry games with good success. I typically enter several $10, 113-entry double up contests, several $5, 227-entry double ups, and the big $25 double up for a total of $100 in entries.

QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady NE 7500 Lack of weapons hurting ceiling. Floor of 18 is pretty solid
Cam Newton Car 7500 No rationale for $300 price drop. Has scored 111 points over past three weeks
Russell Wilson Sea 7200 Offense opened up after Lynch injury. 19 TD passes in past five games
Carson Palmer Ari 7000 Johnson 3 rush TD limited Palmer in week 15. Just bad luck
Drew Brees NO 6800 Great match-up but foot injury is of concern
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6800 Explosive offense against bad Ravens team
Blake Bortles Jax 6500 At least 25 points in four straight. Another strong matchup
Matthew Stafford Det 6100 Benefits against Saints defense. 12 TDs in past four games
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 5200 Continues to be woefully underpriced
Teddy Bridgewater Min 5200 Need a strong stomach, but coming off big game against weak Giants pass defense
RUNNING BACK
Doug Martin TB 6600 Martin has been racking up yards and Chicago is no run stopper
DeAngelo Williams Pit 6500 16.6 preceded by 23+ points in three straight
Matt Forte Chi 6500 Still split with Langford but dependable receiver
David Johnson Ari 5800 Might have the highest cash game ownership of the season. Was 50% last week
Charcandrick West KC 5700 Solid as long as Ware is hobbled
Denard Robinson Jax 5400 Up $2400 in two weeks. Worth it if he is good to go on Sunday with Yeldon out
James White NE 4700 Won't get a lot of carries, but 21 receptions in past three games. Jets stop the run
Tim Hightower NO 4500 Not a big fan, but he is getting the touches
Karlos Williams Buf 4500 Inexpensive option expected to see 15-20 touches
Cameron Artis-Payne Car 4300 Saw a lot of carries when Panthers were up big. Figure to be up again
Shane Vereen NYG 3900 Cheap option, more of a GPP play
Bilal Powell NYJ 3900 At least 19 points in three straight. Heavily involved in receiving situations
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Brown Pit 9300 Top dollar but seemingly unstoppable at this point
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 8400 Dislike QB situation. Should be low ownership GPP option
Allen Robinson Jax 7500 Pretty high floor. Would not be surprised to see Bortles throw 50 times
Mike Evans TB 7300 Evans always scares me due to the drops. No excuse without Jackson
Doug Baldwin Sea 6700 Price up $2700 in three weeks. A four-game monster stretch with 10 TDs
Sammy Watkins Buf 6700 Might be first time this season Watkins hits my list. Four straight solid games
Eric Decker NYJ 6500 Been excellent all season. Pats figure to focus on taking Marshall out of the game
Brandin Cooks NO 5900 Been inconsistent - sometimes below 10, other times over 20. Sounds like a GPP option
Golden Tate Det 5800 Nice five-game stretch with Calvin struggling
Martavis Bryant Pit 5600 Averaging almost 20 ppg and still only $5600
Kamar Aiken Bal 5400 Becoming a viable cash game option. 30 catches over past five games
John Brown Ari 5300 Five straight good games. Might finally be healthy
Michael Floyd Ari 4900 Over 20 points in four of past six. Just missed TD on great catch at the 1-yard line last week
Willie Snead NO 4500 Back in form over past two games
Tyler Lockett Sea 4500 Up $1500 in three weeks. Can score from anywhere. Seeing more targets
TIGHT END
Rob Gronkowski NE 7600 Has to stay in the mix with limited other options in New England
Greg Olsen Car 7000 Still throws in some clunkers but pretty solid 2x floor
Delanie Walker Ten 5600 Finally broke streak of every game with 3+ catches. But both catches went for TDs
Ben Watson NO 5300 Was not heavily involved on Monday until scoring a late TD
Julius Thomas Jax 5100 Heavily targeted in past five. Still reasonable price
Travis Kelce KC 4300 Inconsistent targets makes him a GPP-only option
Zach Miller Chi 4000 Last minute of garbage time last week made his game. Still good price
Will Tye NYG 3500 Double-digit points in five straight games for dirt cheap
Eric Ebron Det 2900 Tough to trust but only needs three catches to earn $2900
DEFENSE
Seahawks Sea 4300 Stop Gurley and they are money in the bank
Chiefs KC 4200 Good chance for big points on turnovers off Manziel
Panthers Car 3700 Expect them to turn over and sack Falcons
Steelers Pit 3100 Not a great defense, but a great situation
Texans Hou 2800 I worry about their offense, but no Mariotta for Tenn
Lions Det 2800 Home vs. SF in low total game

MY CURRENT LINEUP

Blake Bortles QB Jax 6500
David Johnson RB Ari 5800
Denard Robinson RB Jax 5400
Allen Robinson WR Jax 7500
Golden Tate WR Det 5800
Michael Floyd WR Ari 4900
Zach Miller TE Chi 4000
Martavis Bryant FL Pit 5600
Chiefs DST KC 4200
49700

Rostering Allen Robinson and Brandon Marshall paid off for me last week. So where do we go in Week 14?

The problem this week is that the cheap running backs all went up in price. If you want at least two high-priced wide receivers, you are left with Shaun Draughn at $4800 and T.J. Yeldon at $4900. Now on Wednesday, we are hit with the dilemma of Saints running back Mark Ingram going on IR, leaving C.J. Spiller ($3000) as the lead back. Maybe in GPP, but I am not touching him in cash games.

Going with Draughn and Yeldon will allow us to roster Antonio Brown and Brandon Marshall at WR and Delanie Walker at TE.

We are in the mode of hitting a formula that has worked, so we are sticking with it. Cheap at QB and RB, paying up for WR and TE, playing the same cash games, primarily single entry $5 and $10 contests.

QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady NE 7800 At least 23 in all but two games. Doing it with mirrors
Cam Newton Car 7500 Wow. Now very pricy after 5 TD passes in two of past three
Aaron Rodgers GB 7000 Ground game is a mess
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6800 In a zone past four. Key divisional game vs. Cin
Russell Wilson Sea 6300 Offense opened up after Lynch injury. Finally seeing the Wilson expected
Blake Bortles Jax 6000 Continues to put up huge passing numbers
Jameis Winston TB 5500 Benefits against Saints defense. Effective run game minimizes attempts.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 5400 2+ TDs in 10 of 12. Near 3x floor
Brock Osweiler Den 5200 Might get the chains off if Oakland can score some points
RUNNING BACK
Matt Forte Chi 6800 Langford and now Carey near goal line pose a risk
Doug Martin TB 6200 Ton of touches but lack of TDs and receptions make for better options
LeSean McCoy Buf 6100 At least 18 touches past seven. 2x price in seven straight. Revenge game
DeAngelo Williams Pit 6000 23, 24, and 41 in three of past four. Still good value at price
Jonathan Stewart Car 5800 Up $500. Consistently good since Week 6. Lack of receptions a concern
Thomas Rawls Sea 5800 Up $1300 over two weeks. Nice matchup with Ravens. Still good value
Lamar Miller Mia 5700 Under 10 in half the games. Well under new OC.
Javorius Allen Bal 5300 Can't explain $100 drop off monster game. May be only weapon vs. Seattle
Darren McFadden Dal 5000 Thrown in some duds, but still best Cowboys offensive weapon
T.J. Yeldon Jax 4900 Solid touches. Needs more red zone carries
Shaun Draughn SF 4800 Big price jump. Very solid floor. Not a big reach to get 3x this price
Ronnie Hillman Den 4700 If CJ is out. Good matchup
WIDE RECEIVER
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 9100 Must do a lot to earn 3x. But Giants have no running game
Antonio Brown Pit 8900 Scored at least 40 points in three of last four
Allen Robinson Jax 8000 Big price jump. Liked him a lot more with Hurns out
Brandon Marshall NYJ 7600 TDs in 9 of 12 but now paying the price for them
Calvin Johnson Det 7400 At least five catches in 10 of 12 games
Mike Evans TB 7200 Has to be on this list vs. Saints, but he is much higher than his teammate
Alshon Jeffery Chi 6900 Disappointing last week vs 49ers
Eric Decker NYJ 6400 2x this price every week except two (and was close to 2x on those weeks)
Brandin Cooks NO 6200 At least four catches every week. Lower floor and higher ceiling than Decker
Sammy Watkins Buf 6100 Very much GPP play. Two strong games in a row, but two before were brutal
Danny Amendola NE 5200 Up $1000 but appears to be worth it as the primary Brady target
Vincent Jackson TB 4500 Looks like best deal of the week. 2X three weeks in a row and now gets Saints
Doug Baldwin Sea 4500 Stud games in three of past four. No reason to stop now
DeVante Parker Mia 4000 Big price jump but still cheap. Not a lot of volume here
Dorial Green-Beckham Ten 3700 Cheap inconsistent GPP play
TIGHT END
Greg Olsen Car 6900 Game not expected to be as wide open as last week
Delanie Walker Ten 5600 At least three receptions in every game. Fluky price drop after 23-point game
Jordan Reed Was 5100 Disappointing Monday night clunker was out of the ordinary
Travis Kelce KC 4700 Too good to have scored in single digits in three of four games
Ben Watson NO 4400 Saints starting to find other weapons
Julius Thomas Jax 4200 Starting to find the end zone on a regular basis
Richard Rodgers GB 3900 Surprisingly becoming a reliable Aaron Rodgers target
Scott Chandler NE 3800 Effective replacing Gronk
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 2700 Finally returned but not quite in flow. Saints come marching in this week
DEFENSE
Patriots NE 3500 Only 2 of last week's touchdowns allowed were by the defense
Seahawks Sea 3500 Face either Matt "pick six" Schaub or Jimmy Clausen
Broncos Den 3400 Continue to be opportunistic on defense
Panthers Car 3400 Falcons have been a mess since Week 6
Packers GB 3200 Faces the offensively-challenged Cowboys
Chiefs KC 3200 Dominated the Chargers just a few short weeks ago
Browns CLE 2600 Cheap home option vs. bad offense

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ 5400
T.J. Yeldon RB Jax 4900
Shaun Draughn RB SF 4800
Antonio Brown WR Pit 8900
Vincent Jackson WR TB 4500
Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 7600
Delanie Walker TE Ten 5600
Danny Amendola FL NE 5200
Browns DST CLE 2600
49500

Keep trusting the process. That is my message after a losing Week 14 for me. I have consciously tried as this season has gone on to avoid the urge to tinker with my lineup. Sure, I considered swapping out Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.J. Yeldon, Delanie Walker and the Browns defense for Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the Seahawks defense. But I was able to avoid the temptation.

I went back and forth all week on Vincent Jackson vs. Doug Baldwin, both priced at $4,500. I liked V-Jax a little more from the outset, expecting and up and down battle against the Saints while the expectation was for the Seahawks to get a big lead and run the clock to grind out the game. Even during the week when I heard V-Jax was battling a knee injury, I stuck with him when he was declared active on Sunday. Well, that cost me 31 points and a virtual guaranteed score above the payline.

With only Danny Amendola left on my roster at flex and being below the pay line, I correctly figured that there was no way to move above the cash line with Amendola’s ownership expected to be around 50%. So I had just enough money to go from Amendola to Lamar Miller. I felt like a genius at halftime on Monday night when Miller had scored two touchdowns to move me above the cash line.

My big fear then turned to the high ownership on Odell Beckham Jr. While the ownership was near 50%, all I really needed in the second half was for Beckham to not go bonkers and for the Dolphins to keep giving Miller a chance to run. Someone needs to explain how the Dolphins could go almost exclusive pass in the second half (Miller had five carries), leading to more opportunity for Beckham. We know that the Dolphins forgot to cover him on the 84-yard catch (just a minor mix-up) and the rest is history.

But somehow on Tuesday morning, in spite of losing, I didn’t feel as bad as I did after the early games on Sunday. My brain really hurt for messing up the V-Jax-Baldwin call, but I felt at least I played the end game correctly in getting off Amendola and on to Miller (even though the Dolphins refused to cooperate).

If they can contain Beckham, they can get some points

QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady NE 7800 At least 23 in all but three games (and they were not bad)
Cam Newton Car 7800 Now with Brady as highest priced QB.
Carson Palmer Ari 7000 At least 23 points in four of past five
Russell Wilson Sea 7000 Offense opened up after Lynch injury. 16 TD passes in past four games
Drew Brees NO 6600 Started season at $8000. At least 38 pass attempts in all but one game
Matthew Stafford Det 6100 Benefits against Saints defense. Nine TDs in past three games
Blake Bortles Jax 6100 Continues to put up huge passing numbers. Ten TDs in past three. Still cheap
Marcus Mariota Ten 5500 Expect Ten to be playing from behind
A.J. McCarron Cin 5400 Says he is as good as Brady. Good match-up to prove it
RUNNING BACK
Devonta Freeman Atl 7500 Falcons have struggled to no end, but Jax defense is not very good
Adrian Peterson Min 7100 Dependable TD threat. Not catching as many passes as in the past
DeAngelo Williams Pit 6600 23+ points in three straight
David Johnson Ari 5700 24 touches in each of the past two games
Shaun Draughn SF 4600 Disappointing with only two receptions last game after 5-5-8 in previous three
Denard Robinson Jax 4600 Solid in place of Yeldon last week. Effective pass catcher last season
James White NE 4600 Good option with Blount out
Javorius Allen Bal 4500 Surprising huge $800 price drop coming off bad Seattle game. 30-18-16 in three prior
Ronnie Hillman Den 4300 Consider if C.J. is out again
Darren Sproles Phi 4200 Getting a little pricey but scores from all over
Theo Riddick Det 4000 At least five catches in 4 straight
Tim Hightower NO 3900 Nowhere else to get 28 carries for this cheap. Touchdown saved the day
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Brown Pit 8700 Tough match-up with Denver
Julio Jones Atl 8500 Cheapest he has been all season. Just not scoring TDs
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 8500 Shaky QB play catching up with him
A.J. Green Cin 7900 A.J. to A.J. right out of the box. New QB might work out just fine
Allen Robinson Jax 7600 Only catch last week was a short TD. Nice bounce back chance vs. struggling Falcons
Alshon Jeffery Chi 7300 Finally appears to be healthy. Might be in for a strong finish
Jarvis Landry Mia 6300 Can't beat 18 targets (after a two-catch game). Dolphins are a mess on offense
Doug Baldwin Sea 5800 Price up $2000 in two weeks. A three-game monster stretch with 8 TDs
Danny Amendola NE 5700 Up $1700 in past month. Gronk back. Harder to earn 3x at advanced price
Allen Hurns Jax 5600 Cheap compared to teammate Robinson. Big play ability
Golden Tate Det 5500 Up $1000 off of four straight with 7+ receptions. Still a good price
Kamar Aiken Bal 4600 Six straight at more than 2x this price. KC tough matchup, but so was Seattle
Michael Floyd Ari 4400 Over 20 points in four of past five
Tyler Lockett Sea 4200 Up $1200 in two weeks. Can score from anywhere
Malcom Floyd SD 3500 Health risk, but up against mangled Dolphins secondary
TIGHT END
Rob Gronkowski NE 7700 Brady running out of options. Still some nice cheaper options, but due for big game
Jordan Reed Was 5900 Big $800 price jump. Sees a ton of targets. Next tier TE getting pricey
Delanie Walker Ten 5600 At least three receptions in every game. At least 2x this price in every game but two
Ben Watson NO 4800 Great surprise season. Getting pricey for his floor
Julius Thomas Jax 4700 TD in four straight
Antonio Gates SD 4600 Nice price on team void of weapons against a bad defense
Richard Rodgers GB 4300 Has a low floor and high ceiling in shaky Packers offense. Raiders bad vs. TE
Zach Miller Chi 3600 Even up $900 still a nice option with Bennett out
Will Tye NYG 3100 Double-digit points in four straight games for dirt cheap
DEFENSE
Seahawks Sea 4200 Rounding into form. Manziel turns the ball over trying to make plays
Cardinals Ari 3900 Chance for a big score
Chiefs KC 3700 Face the QB challenged Ravens
Patriots NE 3700 Figures to get turnovers with a big lead
Bengals Cin 3400 49'ers a little better at home but not much
Panthers Car 3300 If they can contain Beckham, they can get some points

MY CURRENT LINEUP

Blake Bortles QB Jax 6100
Javorius Allen RB Bal 4500
David Johnson RB Ari 5700
Allen Robinson WR Jax 7600
Julio Jones WR Atl 8500
Michael Floyd WR Ari 4400
Zach Miller TE Chi 3600
Golden Tate FL Det 5500
Patriots DST NE 3700
49600

 

 

With all the back-up running backs gaining starting jobs, Week 13 is a great week to go cheap on running back and pay up for the star wide receivers - again.

That strategy failed the players that went top-tier in Week 12 as Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown all flopped relative to their price. Only Odell Beckham played to his price. You don’t have to go quite that high. If you can roster some combination of Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, you are likely to be gold in cash games this week.

After 12 weeks, I finally think I am getting the hang of NFL DFS cash games and money management. Up through Week 11, I had been playing 75% cash and 25% GPP with relatively small bankroll and a single lineup. What I found was that with this split, even when I had a good cash week, I was not making enough money to offset the bad week. As much as we want to with the $1 million prize (my goal in fantasy sports is to get my picture taken holding one of those big checks), we need to take baby steps to get there.

QUARTERBACK
Cam Newton Car 7400 The chalk cash play QB
Carson Palmer Ari 6700 Down $400 but is playing at an elite level. At least 3 TDs in 7 of 11 games
Philip Rivers SD 6600 Dropped $100 off a 300-yard, 4-TD effort
Andy Dalton Cin 6400 Excellent match-up with Cleveland
Derek Carr Oak 6200 Tends to be better at home.
Blake Bortles Jax 6000 Solid choice. No red-zone rush options
Matt Hasselbeck Ind 5300 Cheap contrarian play against porous Steelers defense
Ryan Tannehill Mia 5300 New emphasis expected on run, but Baltimore is very poor vs. pass
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 5200 Red-zone passing threat with Marshall and Decker
RUNNING BACK
Devonta Freeman Atl 8000 With all the cheap options, expect low ownership
Adrian Peterson Min 6600 Did his price drop because they play Seattle? Seems like a bad reason
Chris Ivory NYJ 5900 Runs hot and cold
Lamar Miller Mia 5800 Fired their offensive coordinator because they only ran nine times last week
DeAngelo Williams Pit 5600 The start of the very reasonably priced running backs
Javorius Allen Bal 5400 Big $800 jump but is heavily involved in run and pass game
Thomas Rawls Sea 5400 Up $900 more for performance two weeks ago. Was fortunate to get 12 last week
Jonathan Stewart Car 5300 Very low price to the touches on an excellent team
Charcandrick West KC 5200 Expected to return
Shaun Draughn SF 4000 Not a big TD threat, but is on the field all the time
Duke Johnson Jr. Cle 3800 Best running back in Cleveland and more effective catching passes
David Johnson Ari 3400 Best bargain on the board this week with CJ out and Ellington highly questionable
WIDE RECEIVER
Julio Jones Atl 9000 Must do a lot to earn 3x. But still has a high floor.
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 8800 Disappointed a high percentage of players last week
Antonio Brown Pit 8600 Contained by Sherman
Larry Fitzgerald Ari 7400 Under five catches only once this season
Allen Robinson Jax 7300 Great matchup with very high floor
Demaryius Thomas Den 7200 New QB proving he can play. Woeful Chargers defense
Brandon Marshall NYJ 7100 TDs in 8 of 11.
Alshon Jeffery Chi 6900 Cheap compared to other top wide outs. 49ers can't stop anyone
Amari Cooper Oak 6900 Good option at home
Jarvis Landry Mia 6700 Worried by new offensive coordinator but hard to imagine he won't catch five passes
Emmanuel Sanders Den 6500 Good chemistry with new QB
Michael Crabtree Oak 6500 Scores touchdowns
Eric Decker NYJ 6300 Continues to lag Marshall in price
Kamar Aiken Bal 4800 Solid option at this price
DeVante Parker Mia 3300 Played mostly garbage time last week, but now starting. Great price for GPP.
Dontrelle Inman SD 3200 Emerging as a high target piece in San Diego
TIGHT END
Greg Olsen Car 6400 First option for the best QB this week
Delanie Walker Ten 5700 At least three receptions in every game
Jordan Reed Was 5300 Gets almost ten targets per game
Gary Barnidge Cle 5300 Another new QB
Antonio Gates SD 4900 Rebounded nicely with two TDs
Travis Kelce KC 4700 Why doesn’t he get the same number of targets as Reed?
Ben Watson NO 4000 At least three receptions in every game except one
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 2500 Will he finally return? When he does, $2500 will be one-week bargain
DEFENSE
Cardinals Ari 3900 Only downside is game on the road - again
Panthers Car 3500 Playing well. Should be playing from ahead again
Bengals Cin 3400 Gets the Browns and Austin Davis at QB
Broncos Den 3400 Chargers can score, but Broncos should be able to control the ball
Patriots NE 3400 Offense doing it with mirrors. Defense playing well
Bears Chi 2600 Not a great defense, but playing the inept 49ers offense

MY CURRENT LINEUP

Cam Newton QB Car 7400
Shaun Draughn RB SF 4000
David Johnson RB Ari 3400
Allen Robinson WR Jax 7300
Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 7100
Alshon Jeffery WR Chi 6900
Jordan Reed TE Was 5300
Kamar Aiken FL Bal 4800
Panthers DST Car 3500
$49,700

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