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Masters of the NFFC


Evaluation of the NFFC First Six Rounds PDF Print E-mail
Masters of the NFFC
Written by Marc Meltzer   
Tuesday, 12 August 2014 00:53

Almost each day of this month’s fantasy football blitz, Greg Ambrosius of the NFFC is gracious enough to post the first six rounds of recently completed NFFC drafts on the NFFC message board (go to nffc.stats.com for information on how to register for any of their contests). These are not “mock” drafts, they are real drafts, so they carry a lot more credibility than ADP rankings generated from drafts that could be largely auto-picked.

I have been tracking the 12-team drafts that have been posted in the past week and have the following observations:

  • On average, the first six rounds consist of six quarterbacks, 28 running backs, 33 wide receivers and five tight ends. This split is not significantly different from a small amount of data that I have from 2012 NFFC drafts.

  • On average, the first round consists of no quarterbacks, five running backs, six wide receivers and one tight end. This a major shift from 2012, where we saw on average three quarterbacks, seven running backs, one wide receiver and one tight end (again, from a small amount of 2012 NFFC drafts).

  • There have been as few as four quarterbacks selected and as many as 11.

  • There have been as few as 24 running backs selected and as many as 30.

  • There have been as few as 31 wide receivers selected and as many as 36.

  • There have been as few as four tight ends selected and as many as five.

  • On average, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are selected in the second round. However, some drafts have seen Brees and Rodgers selected late in the third round. Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford are next in the quarterback line, on average late in round five. But both have gone as early as the beginning of round four and as late as the end of round six. Next in the quarterback line, in no particular order, are Nick Foles, Robert Griffin, Tom Brady and Cam Newton.

  • LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are the top four running backs selected. And they are typically the first four players being selected overall. The only other running back that is a first round fixture is Eddie Lacy. In the second round, we are typically seeing Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard all selected.  Zac Stacy has a large deviation in where he is being selected, as high as round two and as late as round five. Andre Ellington is being selected in the third round, with little deviation.

  • Wide Receivers Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall are all going in the first round.  Periodically, Jones, Green or Marshall go on the first-second turn. Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Randall Cobb are almost always gone before the end of the second round. Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman have the widest draft variations among those in the top six rounds, with Fitzgerald going anywhere from the end of the second round to the end of the fourth round and Edelman going from early in the fourth round to the middle of the sixth round.

  • Tight end Jimmy Graham is consistently going in the first round, anywhere from the fifth pick to the tenth pick. Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski are the next two tight ends selected, but with large draft deviations – Thomas from early second round to end of third round and Gronkowski from the middle of the second round to the middle of the fourth round. Jordan Cameron is the only other tight end consistently going in the first six rounds.
  • Last Updated on Wednesday, 13 August 2014 00:58
     
    Pinocchio? PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Tuesday, 19 November 2013 00:00

    Gary Kubiak has total confidence in Case Keenum. Jim Schwartz didn’t bench Reggie Bush for fumbling. Dennis Allen has no idea how Darren McFadden’s rehab is progressing. Bruce Arians wants to give Andre Ellington more touches. We read George Bush’s lips, ‘No new taxes,’ and Barack Obama promised that we could keep our current health plan. From coaches to politicians, does anyone really believe anything they say? If only there was some way to filter out all coach quotes from all media sources. Seriously. Just give me the practice reports, injury updates, stats and starting lineups. Everything else is chaff.

    Well, the final chapter of the FFFC is in the books. Yours truly didn’t get a ticket. I hope you were one of the final 20. If you weren’t, no worries. Daily Fantasy Football leagues live on through Week 17. Stop back Friday and we’ll try to separate the wheat from the chaff as we head into the weekend. 

     

     

    Last Updated on Tuesday, 19 November 2013 08:16
     
    Week 11 - Last Shot at FFFC PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Friday, 15 November 2013 00:00

    Week 11 is your last chance to qualify for the FFFC and a million dollars at Fanduel.com. As far as I can tell from the website, the only remaining path to the promised land is their Super Qualifier with a $200 entry and up to 7,250 teams competing for only 20 spots, so it will be far from easy. Normally, I advocate stacking players with related outcomes, picking what projects to be a high scoring affair and loading up. Instead of three to four tasty matchups I see most weeks, NONE of the games stick out as obvious shootouts, so I’m rolling with a more diverse approach.

    Quarterback – Case Keenum ($6,000)

    Running Back – Danny Woodhead ($6,500), Jamaal Charles ($8,800)

    Wide Receiver – Andre Johnson ($7,500), Antonio Brown ($6,900), Jermaine Kearse ($5,000) – depending on Percy Harvin’s status

    Tight End – Rob Gronkowski ($8,200)

    Kicker – Mike Nugent ($5,000)

    Defense – New York Giants ($5,300)

    You know the drill. No rocket science here, just good players with good matchups and a long shot or two sprinkled in if they have a high ceiling. I might tweak things a little bit to free salary so I can include other good matchups. I like the Arizona Cardinals ($5,700) at Jacksonville. Some other considerations:

    Running Backs – Darren Sproles ($5,100), Andre Ellington ($6,000)

    Wide Receiver – Santonio Holmes ($4,500 – if active), Rishard Matthews ($4,500), Doug Baldwin ($5,200), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,200), Marvin Jones ($5,600) Aaron Dobson ($6,200), Keenan Allen ($6,600), Riley Cooper ($7,000).

    Tight End – Jordan Reed ($5,900), Greg Olsen ($5,800), Tim Wright ($5,100), Rob Housler ($4,900).

    jones_marvin

    Marvin Jones is an interesting dice roll. Joe Haden will shadow A.J. Green, forcing Andy Dalton to feed other Bengals. Giovani Bernard might also benefit. Aaron Dobson making the list might raise a few eyebrows as he faces the very tough Carolina Panther secondary, but Rob Gronkowski’s presence has drawn a lot of attention, causing Tom Brady to look Dobson’s way a little more often.

    If you’re looking to play a stack, the Redskins-Eagles contest is going to be the most popular choice. The Vegas over-under of 53 supports that notion, as do the numbers both defenses have given up over the course of the season. The caveat is that the Eagles defense has tightened up the screws slightly over the last few weeks. You have to go all the way back to Week 4 against the Broncos to find a game in which they gave up more than 21 points. The Eagles have given up the most points to wide receivers this year. That ranking is skewed and might lead some astray. Philly has only given up the 15th most over the last five weeks. They’re not the Seahawks, but they aren’t the sieve they were to start the season. The Redskins rank 11th in that category over the same time frame.

    Last Updated on Friday, 15 November 2013 09:48
     
    A Poor Man's Ellington PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Tuesday, 12 November 2013 00:00

    The hits keep coming. With Arian Foster out for the year, the door is open for Ben Tate to take the job and run with it, and he will, until he gets hurt again. It may not be accurate to label him injury prone, but staying healthy has never been his strong suit. That makes Dennis Johnson, a poor man’s Andre Ellington, worth a speculative add if he is still available. As you recall, Ellington was largely ignored on draft day because he was too small. He didn’t fit the prototypical feature back role. That may be partially true, but speed can trump a lot of issues and Johnson has it (4.47 40). DJ is one injury away from being at least a flex option or possibly an RB2 if the injury bug bit you. He’s not going to get much up the middle, nor is he going to break many tackles, but if the Texans can get him in space he can earn his cabbage there.

    Tony Romo owners shouldn’t panic yet, but at least mild concern is warranted. Over the last five weeks, Romo is ranked 11th in fantasy production, making him an inconsistent low-end QB1 that just might sink your ship during an off week. The good news is the Cowboys have the bye week to regroup before facing some of the poorer pass defenses over the final five weeks. Then again, the Redskins held him to just 11.5 in Week 6. Nothing has been easy for Romo lately. If you have room, you might want to start scouting for a plan B just in case.

    I’ll have some thoughts for the FFFC at Fanduel.com later this week.

    Last Updated on Tuesday, 12 November 2013 09:50
     
    Fanduel Week 10 PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Friday, 08 November 2013 00:00

    Quarterback

    There aren’t any bargain signal callers that jump off the page. Philip Rivers ($8,100) is attractive because Denver’s specialty is scoring points, and that’s a good recipe for opposing fantasy QB’s as they try to catch up. Apart from that, if you want to roll the dice…

    Josh McCown ($5,800) is extremely cheap and has Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte to throw to. The Bears host the Lions, who lead the NFL in most pass attempts per game. Once again, there’s a good chance that the Bears will be forced to keep pace.

    Seneca Wallace ($5,000) will get a week of practice with the starters, can run well and has Jordy Nelson and James Jones to YAC their way to the end zone. He’s not for the risk averse, but at the same time 20 points would not be a shock and you can save $4,000 to $5,600 in salary versus the elite options.

    Running Back

    Le'Veon Bell ($7,200) is running well and getting about 20 touches a game. He’s due to find the end zone more often. The Bills aren’t the best matchup, but the price is reasonable.

    Rashad Jennings ($5,700) is likely to carry the mail for the Raiders with Darren McFadden nursing a hamstring injury. Not the easiest matchup against the Giants, but what do you expect at this price?

    Shonn Greene ($4,900) did something you don’t see every day this past Sunday…he broke a tackle. That is not a misprint. Not only that, he demonstrated decent speed. Who is this man wearing #23 for the Titans and what has he done with the REAL Shonn Greene? You can’t count on more than 10 touches, but the Titans should hold the lead at home against the Jaguars and Greene is an inexpensive gamble that should get a couple of red zone looks and could post 10+ points if he finds pay dirt.

    Eddie Lacy ($6,800) has 22+ touches five consecutive weeks. That should continue with Aaron Rodgers sidelined. The box will be stacked and his yards per carry should fall slightly as a result (though he had 6.8 YPC vs. the Bears).

    Wide Receiver

    Eric Decker ($6,200) is going to bust out one of these weeks. Will this week be the one?

    T.Y. Hilton ($6,000) is still ridiculously cheap even though Reggie Wayne is out for the season. I think seven catches for 121 yards and three touchdowns on a season- high 12 targets is worth chasing another week.

    Denarius Moore ($5,000) has the tools to get behind the Giants secondary. All it takes is one and Moore will turn a profit at this price.

    Other cheap fillers include Kris Durham ($4,600), Tiquan Underwood ($4,600), Kenny Stills ($4,800), and Terrance Williams ($5,700).

    Tight Ends

    Martellus Bennett ($5,600) received eight targets last week and 12 at Ford Field in Week 4. This time, the Motor City kitties travel to the Windy City. Bennett came within a gnat’s eyelash of scoring against the Packers and is a good bet to find the end zone in Week 10.

    Andrew Quarless ($4,500) was targeted a season high seven times with Seneca Wallace at the helm. Will it continue? It will only cost you the minimum to find out. It should be mentioned that the Eagles haven’t given up many points to tight ends this year.

    Last Updated on Friday, 08 November 2013 10:12
     
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