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Fantasy Football WR Sleepers Part II: From Miami To Washington PDF Print E-mail
Masters of the NFFC
Written by Ryan Carey   
Thursday, 04 September 2014 00:00

We are going to follow up with Part II of our rundown of sleeper wide receivers from around the league. Since we end up drafting more wide receivers than any other position in fantasy football, it is necessary to dig a little deeper to find viable sleeper candidates. We'll take a look at every team from around the league and give you some names you need to know for the mid-to-late rounds of your fantasy drafts this year.  Here is the second batch from Miami to Washington.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins tabbed Jarvus Landry in the second round of the draft with an eye to the future. The team may decide to let Brian Hartline walk after this season and in Landry, they think they have the perfect guy to groom as a replacement. He will need to wrest the No. 3 job from Brandon Gibson, but if he does, he could pay off as a late round dart in deep PPR leagues.

Minnesota Vikings

Cordarrelle Patterson is already getting drafted too high to merit “sleeper”status. If anything, he is being overdrafted at this point, with questions about who will be throwing him passes still undecided. Greg Jennings is cheaper, but doesn’t have the upside anymore to be much more than a flex option. Jarius Wright has some intrigue if he can manage to outlast Jerome Simpson for the No. 3 job. But let’s be honest, it would have to be an extremely deep league for you to call his name on draft day.

New England Patriots

Tom Brady likes to spread the ball around, which means anyone in the mix to catch passes has a chance to be fantasy relevant. Danny Amendola will look to bounce back from a lackluster debut in New England. He missed time with injuries and saw Julian Edelman emerge as Brady’s favorite target. Amendola’s injury history keeps his price low, but with the team installing more three-wide sets, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to make some noise in PPR leagues, at least until he gets hurt again. At least the injury risk is priced in this year.

New Orleans Saints

Kenny Stills has been nicked up in camp, which has allowed rookie Brandin Cooks to steal all of the pre-season buzz. If your leaguemates forget about the second-year speedster, take advantage of the discount to get a piece of the Saints passing game. He will be hard to trust on a weekly basis, like many Saints receivers who have filled the “home run” role in the past, but you know Drew Brees is going to lob a couple of deep shots his way every week. That’s the kind of weekly upside you want on your bench to deploy in your flex spot when the matchups are right. The fact that Stills re-injured his quadriceps and is questionable for Week 1 should only suppress his value a little more, making him even easier to grab late.

New York Giants

I always like to target receivers heading into their third year, which brings us to Rueben Randle. The departure of Hakeem Nicks and injuries to rookie Odell Beckham have cleared the way for Randle to begin the season as the starter opposite Victor Cruz. At 6’3”, Randle has the size to become a red zone favorite of Eli Manning’s. As I mentioned, his stock is trending into low WR3 range, so expect to have some competition for his services in your draft.

New York Jets

Jeremy Kerley is one of those players you want to root for and this year he will be someone you will want to consider grabbing late, especially in PPR drafts. He doesn’t have the upside of a lot of the other players on the list, but aside from outside threat Eric Decker, Kerley looks like Geno Smith’s most reliable target in the wake of the team’s release of Stephen Hill. The Jets' slot man should get his targets each and every week, making him a solid bench player for deep leagues.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have a pretty crowded receiving corps, and their passing attack doesn’t figure to be one of the league’s elite ones, so you may want to look elsewhere for your sleepers, but looking at the landscape, third-year man (there it is again) Andre Holmes is the guy in silver-and-black that I am tempted to place my bets on. At 6’4”, he has the size and wingspan to go up and get the ball, and was garnering a ton of buzz early in camp. However, he has fallen behind Rod Streater and Denarius Moore as the pre-season continued and now seems best left on the wire to start the year.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jordan Matthews was an easy choice as the Eagles candidate. He is already locked in as the team's slot receiver, which will instantly put him in the middle of Chip Kelly’s machine-gun offense. I have seen some people argue that he is the best receiver on the Eagles right now. However, working on the inside, he will have company for targets in Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz. I think he is priced right as a WR4/5, and he is a player that I think will come on stronger as the year progresses. Obviously, any injuries to Jeremy Maclin or Riley Cooper will only expedite his arrival, just be aware that he will not be on the field all the time as Kelly keeps his pieces moving.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Markus Wheaton was hailed as the new Mike Wallace when the Steelers drafted him last year, and now he will have his chance to prove it after Emmanuel Sanders landed in Denver. Wheaton has locked down the “X” role held by the two former Steelers, and the stage is set for him to have a breakout year as a result. He is lumped in with other WR5’s like Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Steve Smith, Danny Amendola and Miles Austin. You don’t really need me to tell you why grabbing the speedy 23-year-old over these injury-prone veterans is the right move, just thank me later.

St. Louis Rams

Here we are at the end of the pre-season, and not only is Kenny Britt still standing, he has landed a starting job for his former coach Jeff Fisher. The Rams definitely have a need for someone with Britt’s skills to work the outside of the field, and his price is so low that it really can’t hurt to take a chance and see if he can have a bounceback season. Yes, he is an injury risk, a headcase and he has lost a step from his prime. But there really aren’t any other receivers of his ilk sitting in his tier, as most No. 1 options will be drafted much, much earlier.

San Diego Chargers

After taking a long look at the Chargers corps of receivers, it is really hard to get excited about anyone beyond Keenan Allen. Malcom Floyd is what he is, a boring veteran who won’t make much noise and will likely get hurt at some point. Eddie Royal is a nice slot-man, and he will have his one or two big weeks, but for the most part is best left on the wire. Vincent Brown has been released. That leaves CFL veteran Dontrelle Inman as the best sleeper candidate here, albeit one for only the deepest of leagues. He’s not going to get too much action until injuries hit, but Inman can make some noise if he can find his way onto the field at some point. I feel I’ll be writing about him again at some point this year.

San Francisco 49ers

Steve Johnson comes over from the Buffalo Bills, where he was their leading receiver for the last four seasons. Now he is third in the pecking order behind Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin, and will see much fewer targets than he has in the past, particularly since the Niners run the ball so much and don’t use very many three WR formations. Still, he should rotate in and out to keep the aging Boldin fresh, and he does have a track record of success that makes him a viable stash in deep leagues.

Seattle Seahawks

Doug Baldwin has been one of my favorite late-round targets this year, as no one seems to like him as much as I do in my drafts. I have consistently been able to land him as a WR5/6 on my teams as others chase flashier names. Baldwin isn’t flashy, and he doesn’t have the size that everyone covets at only 5’10”. What he does have is a starting job and the trust of his quarterback. He also has Percy Harvin on the other side of the field, which means he is only another injury away from being the number one target. That’s enough upside to go along with what should be steady production otherwise.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rookie Mike Evans will team up with Vincent Jackson to form one of the most imposing pair of wideouts the league has ever seen. Evans will likely be the first rookie wideout to come off the board in drafts, so it is sort of a stretch to label him a true sleeper. The only question left to be answered is how much of an impact can he have in his first full season? At 6’5”, he will excel in the red-zone and will benefit from getting single-coverage thanks to his running mate across the field.

Tennessee Titans

Justin Hunter is on just about every sleeper list out there, and I see no reason to keep him off this one. This kid has a ton of talent, and he seems ready to put last year’s issues behind him. He has a unique combination of size (6’4”) and speed and has been making plays all through the pre-season. Nate Washington is still around, so Hunter will have to bide his time as the slot receiver, but Hunter is a big play waiting to happen any given week. His strong pre-season has him rising in the ranks, so hopefully you got shares in him while they were still cheap.

Washington Redskins

The only person who wasn’t particularly excited when DeSean Jackson signed with Washington had to be Andre Roberts. Jackson’s arrival means that instead of finding himself in the starting lineup, Roberts will remain one of the better third receivers in the league, which unfortunately puts a cap on his prospects to begin the year. The good news is Jay Gruden likes to run a lot of three wide receiver sets in his offense and both Pierre Garcon and Jackson have a history of missing time with injuries. You could do worse with your last roster spot in a deep PPR league.

Last Updated on Thursday, 04 September 2014 11:17
 
Evaluation of the NFFC First Six Rounds PDF Print E-mail
Masters of the NFFC
Written by Marc Meltzer   
Tuesday, 12 August 2014 00:53

Almost each day of this month’s fantasy football blitz, Greg Ambrosius of the NFFC is gracious enough to post the first six rounds of recently completed NFFC drafts on the NFFC message board (go to nffc.stats.com for information on how to register for any of their contests). These are not “mock” drafts, they are real drafts, so they carry a lot more credibility than ADP rankings generated from drafts that could be largely auto-picked.

I have been tracking the 12-team drafts that have been posted in the past week and have the following observations:

  • On average, the first six rounds consist of six quarterbacks, 28 running backs, 33 wide receivers and five tight ends. This split is not significantly different from a small amount of data that I have from 2012 NFFC drafts.

  • On average, the first round consists of no quarterbacks, five running backs, six wide receivers and one tight end. This a major shift from 2012, where we saw on average three quarterbacks, seven running backs, one wide receiver and one tight end (again, from a small amount of 2012 NFFC drafts).

  • There have been as few as four quarterbacks selected and as many as 11.

  • There have been as few as 24 running backs selected and as many as 30.

  • There have been as few as 31 wide receivers selected and as many as 36.

  • There have been as few as four tight ends selected and as many as five.

  • On average, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are selected in the second round. However, some drafts have seen Brees and Rodgers selected late in the third round. Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford are next in the quarterback line, on average late in round five. But both have gone as early as the beginning of round four and as late as the end of round six. Next in the quarterback line, in no particular order, are Nick Foles, Robert Griffin, Tom Brady and Cam Newton.

  • LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are the top four running backs selected. And they are typically the first four players being selected overall. The only other running back that is a first round fixture is Eddie Lacy. In the second round, we are typically seeing Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard all selected.  Zac Stacy has a large deviation in where he is being selected, as high as round two and as late as round five. Andre Ellington is being selected in the third round, with little deviation.

  • Wide Receivers Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall are all going in the first round.  Periodically, Jones, Green or Marshall go on the first-second turn. Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Randall Cobb are almost always gone before the end of the second round. Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman have the widest draft variations among those in the top six rounds, with Fitzgerald going anywhere from the end of the second round to the end of the fourth round and Edelman going from early in the fourth round to the middle of the sixth round.

  • Tight end Jimmy Graham is consistently going in the first round, anywhere from the fifth pick to the tenth pick. Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski are the next two tight ends selected, but with large draft deviations – Thomas from early second round to end of third round and Gronkowski from the middle of the second round to the middle of the fourth round. Jordan Cameron is the only other tight end consistently going in the first six rounds.
  • Last Updated on Wednesday, 13 August 2014 00:58
     
    Pinocchio? PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Tuesday, 19 November 2013 00:00

    Gary Kubiak has total confidence in Case Keenum. Jim Schwartz didn’t bench Reggie Bush for fumbling. Dennis Allen has no idea how Darren McFadden’s rehab is progressing. Bruce Arians wants to give Andre Ellington more touches. We read George Bush’s lips, ‘No new taxes,’ and Barack Obama promised that we could keep our current health plan. From coaches to politicians, does anyone really believe anything they say? If only there was some way to filter out all coach quotes from all media sources. Seriously. Just give me the practice reports, injury updates, stats and starting lineups. Everything else is chaff.

    Well, the final chapter of the FFFC is in the books. Yours truly didn’t get a ticket. I hope you were one of the final 20. If you weren’t, no worries. Daily Fantasy Football leagues live on through Week 17. Stop back Friday and we’ll try to separate the wheat from the chaff as we head into the weekend. 

     

     

    Last Updated on Tuesday, 19 November 2013 08:16
     
    Week 11 - Last Shot at FFFC PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Friday, 15 November 2013 00:00

    Week 11 is your last chance to qualify for the FFFC and a million dollars at Fanduel.com. As far as I can tell from the website, the only remaining path to the promised land is their Super Qualifier with a $200 entry and up to 7,250 teams competing for only 20 spots, so it will be far from easy. Normally, I advocate stacking players with related outcomes, picking what projects to be a high scoring affair and loading up. Instead of three to four tasty matchups I see most weeks, NONE of the games stick out as obvious shootouts, so I’m rolling with a more diverse approach.

    Quarterback – Case Keenum ($6,000)

    Running Back – Danny Woodhead ($6,500), Jamaal Charles ($8,800)

    Wide Receiver – Andre Johnson ($7,500), Antonio Brown ($6,900), Jermaine Kearse ($5,000) – depending on Percy Harvin’s status

    Tight End – Rob Gronkowski ($8,200)

    Kicker – Mike Nugent ($5,000)

    Defense – New York Giants ($5,300)

    You know the drill. No rocket science here, just good players with good matchups and a long shot or two sprinkled in if they have a high ceiling. I might tweak things a little bit to free salary so I can include other good matchups. I like the Arizona Cardinals ($5,700) at Jacksonville. Some other considerations:

    Running Backs – Darren Sproles ($5,100), Andre Ellington ($6,000)

    Wide Receiver – Santonio Holmes ($4,500 – if active), Rishard Matthews ($4,500), Doug Baldwin ($5,200), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,200), Marvin Jones ($5,600) Aaron Dobson ($6,200), Keenan Allen ($6,600), Riley Cooper ($7,000).

    Tight End – Jordan Reed ($5,900), Greg Olsen ($5,800), Tim Wright ($5,100), Rob Housler ($4,900).

    jones_marvin

    Marvin Jones is an interesting dice roll. Joe Haden will shadow A.J. Green, forcing Andy Dalton to feed other Bengals. Giovani Bernard might also benefit. Aaron Dobson making the list might raise a few eyebrows as he faces the very tough Carolina Panther secondary, but Rob Gronkowski’s presence has drawn a lot of attention, causing Tom Brady to look Dobson’s way a little more often.

    If you’re looking to play a stack, the Redskins-Eagles contest is going to be the most popular choice. The Vegas over-under of 53 supports that notion, as do the numbers both defenses have given up over the course of the season. The caveat is that the Eagles defense has tightened up the screws slightly over the last few weeks. You have to go all the way back to Week 4 against the Broncos to find a game in which they gave up more than 21 points. The Eagles have given up the most points to wide receivers this year. That ranking is skewed and might lead some astray. Philly has only given up the 15th most over the last five weeks. They’re not the Seahawks, but they aren’t the sieve they were to start the season. The Redskins rank 11th in that category over the same time frame.

    Last Updated on Friday, 15 November 2013 09:48
     
    A Poor Man's Ellington PDF Print E-mail
    Masters of the NFFC
    Written by Greg Morgan   
    Tuesday, 12 November 2013 00:00

    The hits keep coming. With Arian Foster out for the year, the door is open for Ben Tate to take the job and run with it, and he will, until he gets hurt again. It may not be accurate to label him injury prone, but staying healthy has never been his strong suit. That makes Dennis Johnson, a poor man’s Andre Ellington, worth a speculative add if he is still available. As you recall, Ellington was largely ignored on draft day because he was too small. He didn’t fit the prototypical feature back role. That may be partially true, but speed can trump a lot of issues and Johnson has it (4.47 40). DJ is one injury away from being at least a flex option or possibly an RB2 if the injury bug bit you. He’s not going to get much up the middle, nor is he going to break many tackles, but if the Texans can get him in space he can earn his cabbage there.

    Tony Romo owners shouldn’t panic yet, but at least mild concern is warranted. Over the last five weeks, Romo is ranked 11th in fantasy production, making him an inconsistent low-end QB1 that just might sink your ship during an off week. The good news is the Cowboys have the bye week to regroup before facing some of the poorer pass defenses over the final five weeks. Then again, the Redskins held him to just 11.5 in Week 6. Nothing has been easy for Romo lately. If you have room, you might want to start scouting for a plan B just in case.

    I’ll have some thoughts for the FFFC at Fanduel.com later this week.

    Last Updated on Tuesday, 12 November 2013 09:50
     
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