If you are a fantasy player of some long standing, you have probably heard the argument that “for every Frank Thomas there are a hundred Paul Konerkos.”
The basis for this is that is so easy to be enamored of a hot youngster riding a rocket to The Show. However, statistically, it is just likely that that prospect will struggle for a while ala Mr. Konerko, as opposed to being the next coming of Ted Williams from the first at-bat as Mr. Thomas was.
And, it is not that Konerko is a bad player, at all. Quite to the contrary. However, it took him time--and three teams--to adjust, and that is more the norm.
The thing is, fantasy players all want to win because, well, winning is fun. But, we also want to be smarter, being savvy enough to pick up just the right combination of solid vets and unheralded up-and-comers to grab a title. But, we also want to be the one who “discovers” the Hanleys and Lincecums and Longorias under the noses of our league mates.
Unfortunately, the “Thomas/Konerko Principle” tends to raise its head killing those best laid plans, as names like David Price and Matt Wieters will no doubt remind us all (especially those heavily invested in either, let alone both in 2009).
Still, players do come up, and they do succeed each year, and what we have done to deal with this over the past ten years is look unflinchingly at the minor leaguers of the past year, crunching their numbers and coming up with a Top 250 Prospect list.
To qualify for the Top 250, a player must retain rookie status, meaning less than 130 at-bats, or 50 innings pitched with the parent club, or more than 45 consecutive days on the major league 25-man roster (meaning September and call-up time does not count with respect to the days rule).
In order to make our list, a pitcher must have thrown a total of 70 minor league innings, or accumulated 200 at-bats, at any combination of levels from Low-A up through Triple-A. And that means no Stephen Strasburg.
Players are rated on specific skills, such as power and control (strikeouts to walks, and by inning) for pitchers, and walks to at-bats and extra base hit percentage for batters, but, players are also given credit for succeeding young.
Which means an 18-year-old who pitches 140 innings at Double-A and strikes out 157, despite an ERA of 5.09 and won-loss of 3-11, will likely score much higher than a 25 year old who has gone .319-26-87 at the same level.
That is because a 25-year-old should be able to more than compete at Double-A based upon experience, while an 18-year old is doing it primarily with raw tools. The idea, though, is that if the tools are indeed there, and showing themselves early, the chances for that skill set to be enhanced with experience suggests success at higher levels, at an earlier age.
As one might expect, a lot of the names who appear on the list are those familiar, but our analysis has revealed players of skill way before the curve (such as Carlos Zambrano as #1 in 2001, and Albert Pujols as #10 in 2000, Joba Chamberlain at #9 in 2008, and Jair Jurrjens at #25 in 2006 and #16 in ‘08). In other words, there are always some surprises. And, there are some players, like Buster Posey, who are clearly comers, but for one reason or another just miss.
Of course, most of these players are likely still a year away, so don’t bet the bank on them. But, if your format allows for minor leaguers, this is where to look for your stash. And, some will make it to the Bigs, and even earn considerable playing time in 2010, so you certainly want them all on your radar.
Below are the Top Ten:
The Mastersball Top 25 Prospects are listed below (note the entire Top 250 can be purchased in a sortable spreadsheet as part of either our Gold or Platinum subscription packages at www.mastersball.com):
It seems the tradition for me each off-season is to write about the Fall League, then what if the playoff teams were roto teams, and then who I think have made the most adept moves in the off-season, so far.
So, with the new year, it is an appropriate time to make that apparently annual assessment. As usual, I picked the teams who looked the most interesting so far, and, well, as you shall see, we look in terms of off-season winning or losing moves (knowing there is still a lot movement out there).
Giants: Of course I have to start in my backyard where it looks like both bay area teams could be competitive in 2010. The Giants needed some help with pop, and suddenly adding Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa has fleshed out the team where Kung Fu Panda can migrate to first where he would be a fixture, or share corner time with Huf and DeRosa. But, DeRosa can also play in the outfield not to mention second and add some punch. The big question is if and when Buster Posey can be the every day backstop. The Giants defense will be the question, but with Juan Uribe in the infield mix questions about offense have been addressed. We all know about the pitching. Winners.
Athletics: I don't think the Athletics are going to win the AL title, though they might be closer to winning the AL West title than it seems, and way closer than in many of the past few season. Starting with the outfield or Raj Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Coco Crisp (any of whom could be a center fielder) and looking at the infield with Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Cliff Pennington (a real sleeper) on the left side, Oakland has a strong young rotation, a deep pen, and after years of scoring their games knowing over the long haul things were futile, well, Billy Beane had a nice lineup going out every day. 2010 will still give some experience, but 2011 these guys will be ready to compete at the next level. Winners.
Red Sox: The thing with the Red Sox, and their New York rivals, is that it is unthinkable for them not to be competitive. And, they have completed a lot of attrition filling a pitching hole by grabbing John Lackey who makes a strong rotation even stronger. As does the addition of Marco Scutaro a player who turned himself into a good everyday guy when I did not think he could. Add in Adrian Beltre on the left side and the Sox infield seems pretty stable. They did lose Jason Bay in deference to Mike Cameron, and I am one who has avoided Cameron the last few years because I feared he had run out of gas. But, I think as much hinges on Big Papi, VMart, and Kevin Youkilis coming through and also think the team will need to rebuild seriously in the next couple of years. Losers.
Yankees: Ah, New York, where championships are bought, fought for, and ultimately won. And, it is hard to argue with success. The Yanks made some moves, letting Godzilla escape, and trading Melky while getting Javier Vasquez (and a very deep rotation), Curtis Granderson (who should return to form on a deeper team) and Nick Johnson who could be a great DH option, and who can also spell Mark Teixeira at first from time to time. It is hard not to like what the Yankees have done. Winners.
Angels: Talk about core jettison, Vlady, Chone Figgins, Lackey, and Kelvim Escobar are all gone, and Hideki Matsui will likely be the DH. Which means the team will need a third sacker and hope that Juan Rivera can hold stead and Bobby Abreu can hold tight. I suspect these next few years will be transitionary for the Angels, but I also think they can stay competitive within the AL West during the process. Losers for 2010, then Winners again.
Rangers: This will be the year the Rangers and Ron Washington will be rewarded, possibly even with a Series spot, and I am guessing they will win the division. Vlady is a good fit on this team and Rich Harden can be deadly if he can give 20-25 starts. Of course that is always the issue with Harden. However, the big issue is whether Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler can stay healthy, and if Chris Davis can make better contact. They should score a ton of runs, however, and have good starters and a pretty nice pen. Winners.
Phillies: The defending National League champs have been active, adding 18 players while losing 11 so far. They did well, replacing Pedro Feliz with Placido Polanco and Cliff Lee with Roy Halladay. But, for the most part, Philadelphia made moves to strengthen their bench signing Brian Schneider, Ross Gload, and DeWayne Wise for the bench and Dennis Baez and a support cast of probables to help with the pen. Just the acquisition of Halladay has to be considered a heavyweight move, though. Winners.
Cubs: I would be remiss if I did not account for my home away from home, focusing first on the north side of the Second City and the Cubbies. They did well emotionally letting go of Milton Bradley in deference to Marlon Bird, but no matter how you slice it, 130 innings of Rich Harden is way better than any innings from Carlos Silva, no matter how you view innings eaters. But, Alfonso Soriano and Derek Lee are getting long in the tooth and sadly I don't think things will bode well at Wrigley this year. Losers.
White Sox: It is a one year crap shoot in Chicago, where some dreck (Josh Fields) along with an aging star (Jermaine Dye) in lieu of Andruw Jones, Daniel Cabrera, JJ Putz, Freddie Dolsi, and Juan Pierre. Pierre is a legit leadoff hitter, something the Sox have needed for years, but pretty much everyone behind him not named Ramirez or Beckham is on the down side. They do have Jake Peavy for a full season, though, and that is a good thing, but still, I see a long season on both sides of Chicago. Losers.
Cardinals: St. Louis boasts as good a one-two pitching punch with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, plus retaining Matt Holiday gives a troika of the left fielder, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Ludwick to generate the runs, plating Colby Rasmus and Skip Schumaker. On the left side, however, Brendan Ryan looks like the shortstop and David Freese, who has had off-season issues, where the problem lies. I think that needs to be addressed if the Cardinals want to hold the division at bay. Losers.
That will be it for now. I will be back in early February with the Top 250 Prospect preview.