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Hotpage: June 29, 2015 (Week 13) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 29 June 2015 00:00

We are indeed screaming to the All-Star break it seems and though no marquee names were pulled to the Show this past cycle, there are certainly some sticks worthy of attention, starting with the Giants' spare backstop, Andrew Susac

Susac has seen some time of late when San Francisco faces lefties, allowing Buster Posey to play first, and sit Brandon Belt, who has a tougher time against southpaws. With Nori Aoki down, however, playing time is loosening up per Bruce Bochy, allowing the team to play Belt in the outfield, Posey at first, putting Susac in the squat. And, over the past two weeks, over nine games, Susac has hit .458-1-5.

Similarly, across the bay, Josh Phegley has received more playing time, allowing incumbent Stephen Vogt to play some first and rest his battered bones. Last week, Phegley hit .333-2-5 and over the past month has knocked the pill to the tune of .286-4-9 with a .359 OBP. Both guys are good plays in deep AL and NL contests, and both are cheap plays in DFS formats.

It is crazy enough that the blast of rookie pitchers has been dominant on the hill, but what is this with Mets first start hurler Steven Matz going 3-for-3 with four RBI at the dish his first game? That is a record for rookie pitchers, and Matz comported himself well with 7 2/3 innings over which he whiffed six and allowed a pair of runs. A second-round high school pick in 2009, Matz has a tidy 380 whiffs over 365 2/3 frames, with an excellent 1.160 WHIP and just 14 dingers allowed, meaning he does keep the ball down. I think that means "endorsement."

I had some high hopes for Deolis Guerra, who scored well on my Top 250 prospect list in 2009, after going 12-11, 4.89 over 149 innings split between Ft. Myers and New Britain as a 20-year-old. But, it has been a long row to hoe for the 6'5", 245 pounder, now with the Bucs. Guerra had a fine 2015 at Indianapolis, going 2-1, 1.23 with four saves and 37 strikeouts over 36 2/3 innings, with an 0.797 WHIP. Guerra likely won't help you too much this year, but if you need to plug a pitching staff hole benignly, he is a good gamble.

Speaking of big, the Tigers recalled monster (6'3", 275 pounds) Bruce Rondon, who has 267 whiffs over 238 1/3 innings, to go with 80 saves and a 2.64 ERA and a 1.255 WHIP. Rondon missed all of last year after blowing out his arm, and his minor league time this year looks spotty (2-2, 7.11, with a 1.737 WHIP), but three of his first five outs since the call-up were whiffs, and I would not be surprised to see Rondon in the closer job by the end of 2015.

Finishing the pitchers, the Angels brought back Andrew Heaney, their first rounder in 2012, and he responded with six solid frames (one run, five whiffs, a walk, and four hits) and along with the rest of the rookie pitchers who are jerking around batters this year, Heaney makes a good addition and gamble in just about any format these days.

The hitters of interest this week are all sort of retreads, starting with Cole Gillespie, a 31-year-old former third rounder of the Brewers in 2006, who has also toiled for the Giants, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners, Blue Jays, and now Marlins, logging 271 plate appearances since 2009. At one time, I considered Gillespie a promising prospect, but no more. Pass.

Similarly, the Phils brought back Darin Ruf, he of the .317-38-104 line at Reading in 2012. Since then, not much, and as a 25-year-old at Double-A at the time, it should have been clearer that Ruf's success was largely rooted in age and experience.

However, the Astros have been pushing all the right buttons this year, and they called back Jon Singleton, who was hitting .280-17-66 at Fresno, with a solid 47 walks to 63 strikeouts (.387 OBP). Singleton is a gamble I would take in just about any format, including tracking for starting DFS time as the first baseman works into the lineup.

DFS Watch: OK, we are willing to adjust to the fun market of Daily Games. In fact, you know we play FantasyScore and participate in the FanDuel Tout Wars contest, so let's add to our daily MastersDaily coverage and simply pick a couple of series/games/starts this week that look good.

Pitchers to Watch: The week begins with some pretty crappy pitching Monday, but keep an eye on Marco Estrada, who starts the week against the Red Sox, and finishes against the Astros, who hit long balls, but also fan excessively. Estrada has regained form, and is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA his last three starts to go with 19 strikeouts over 20 1/3 innings.

Series to Watch: Starting the week, I have to like the Phils against Taylor Jungmann no matter how well the junk baller pitched his first start and also like the Cubs mashers, especially with Jorge Soler due back, against the Mets and Jon Niese on Monday. Towards the holiday weekend, the Jays and Red Sox could put up some hitting numbers between them (especially on the Jays side) and the Cardinals will have some nice interleague contests with the Royals, like Jeremy Guthrie (Saturday), so exploit accordingly.

Last Updated on Monday, 29 June 2015 08:08
 
Hotpage: June 22, 2015 (Week 12, from Manhattan) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 22 June 2015 00:00

With the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) assembling in New York City this week (stay tuned for the results of the industry draft where Todd and I draft), things are running a little late, but that doesn't mean we are ignoring the baseball season. But, after a long day of travel, a short look at some of the players who gave me the "hmmms" this week.

And, with another week, a pair of great prospects again moved forward, starting with my favorite player from the 2014 draft, Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs (who else?). A catcher, at least for now, Schwarber needed just 130 games (.333-31-92) to hit the bigs where he arrived with a bang (.389-1-6 over his first five games) and personally, I think he is the best stick among all the new wonderful young Cubs. I did see Schwarber's first at-bat over the spring and he hit a grand slam. Need I say more?

Then I have had Matt Wisler buried on my teams for a few years, at least since he was drafted in 2011 by the Padres. going 28-19, 3.53 over 461.3 innings with 429 strikeouts and a 1.185 WHIP as a minor league, of which his 3-4, 4.29 totals this year with Gwinnett. The team shift came with Wisler being swapped to Atlanta as part of the Melvin Upton/Craig Kimbrel mega trade, and his debut was solid enough as he limited the Mets to one run over eight frames, allowing just six hits while striking out a pair. Again, especially in an NL-only format, grab him.

The Phils Phillippe Aumont is back for his third go-around at the Show after being drafted by the Mariners in 2007 (first round), and though he has 526 minor league strikeouts over 482.3 innings, he also has a 1.4999 WHIP (299 walks) to go with his Major League numbers of 1-6, 6.80 over 43.3 innings with the Phillies (he was swapped by the M's for Cliff Lee). Aumont might make it as a reliever at some point, but otherwise, steer clear.

Xavier Scruggs was selected by the Cards in the 19th round of the 2008 draft out of UNLV. Since then, the 27-year-old has had a solid enough career (.255-145-533) over 831 games with a decent .351 OBP that belies 350 walks to 922 strikeouts. The Cards are playing pretty well despite injuries, and Scruggs is there to help, but only in the toughest of NL-only formats should he be considered.

Looking to a few resurrection projects, the Phils also brought up Domonic Brown, who just does not seem to be able to hit much of anything at the big league level any longer after his .272-27-83 run in 2013. Brown hit .257-2-26 over 52 games at Lehigh Valley after being demoted, but he could only wrangle a .307 OBP. Out of gas and hope he is, I fear.

However, both the Diamondbacks' Patrick Corbin and the Rangers' Martin Perez are working rehab stints. Corbin has gone 11 minor league innings (1-1, 6.55) but has not pitched since 2013, meaning he is just getting into a groove. Corbin could be forgotten in a lot of leagues, and could indeed be a great second half addition this year.

Much the same can be said about Perez, though he never enjoyed the success of Corbin (in 2012). Perez just has a couple of rehab innings completed at Frisco this year, but again, he could be sitting in the free agent pool and makes for a good second half boost to your AL pitching staff. In fact, both Perez and Corbin could help in mixed formats as well.

Keep an eye on the progress of both as they return to the Majors.

Last Updated on Monday, 22 June 2015 08:52
 
Hotpage: June 15, 2015 (Week 11) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 15 June 2015 00:00

Goodness, what a banner month for prospects, as now both Byron Buxton and Francisco Lindor have been advanced.

So, let's just get right to it, starting with Buxton, who has the profile to me of an Andrew McCutchen-like presence. Buxton, 21, was a first-round high school pick of the Twins in 2012, and since signing is .296-27-150 with 92 steals and a .380 OBP (131 walks to 233 whiffs) over 263 games. Buxton was .283-6-37 with 20 steals over 59 games at Double-A Chattanooga, and the outfielder should be grabbed pretty much wherever available.

Cleveland's Francisco Lindor signed a year earlier than Buxton, having been a first-rounder in 2011. However, the shortsop, like Buxton, is also 21 years old. Lindor has a .273-21-162 line, along with 89 swipes over 414 games. Lindor has 185 walks to 263 strikeouts (.354 OBP) and I have actually seen him play a few times in the spring. I don't think he is as prime a prospect as Buxton, but he is still a pretty good gamble, especially in an AL-only league or for any reserve/Ultra format where he is not already claimed. Lindor was hitting .279-2-22 when summoned.

Though not debuting, the Mets' Dilson Herrera has been getting some playing time of late, and he too is a player to watch in your Ultra and long-term leagues. Also just 21, Herrera was inked by the Bucs in 2010, and then swapped to the Metropolitans in 2013 as part of the Marlon Byrd deal. Herrera had a monster year in the Minors in 2014, hitting .323-13-71 with 23 steals and an .858 OPS split between St. Lucie and Binghamton. This year, at Las Vegas, Herrera was hitting .367-1-13 over 22 games, with ten of his 33 hits going for extra bases. I think he is going to be really good!

What about the Rays' Joey Butler, this year's journeyman-made-good? Butler is one of those Crash Davis-like guys (a .294-78-390 minor league line over 763 games) who has played with the Rangers and Cardinals briefly at the Show. Butler does whiff a lot (360 walks to 758 whiffs), but he is hitting a nice .347-4-16 with the Rays, although with just two walks to 35 strikeouts. 

Looking to some arms, as we know, the Red Sox must do something, and maybe Eduardo Rodriguez is the answer to some of their problems. Rodriguez, 22, was signed by the Orioles in 2010, then swapped to the Red Sox for Andrew Miller last tading deadline. Rodriguez has pretty good minor league totals (29-30, 3.23 over 534.6 innings, with 462 strikeouts) and was 4-3, 2.98 at Pawtuckett with 44 whiffs over 48.3 innings before getting called up. Since then, Rodriguez is 2-0, 0.44 with an .0798 WHIP and 21 whiffs over 20.3 frames. I am not sure this will last, but he is on a hot streak. Still, I am waiting for Henry Owens.

The Brewers advanced their first-rounder from 2011 in pitcher Taylor Jungmann. At 25, Jungmann is an old man in this week's list, although he did spend time at the University of Texas rather than be a high school selection. With a 35-29, 4.10 mark in the Minors, Jungmann toiled through 505.3 minor league innings, whiffing just 382. He is a control guy (1.83 strikeout-to-walk) and keeps the ball down (just 31 homers), and Jungmann pitched really well his first start (1-0, 1.29, three hits, five whiffs, and a walk). I would be a little careful with him just yet. For the most part, strikeouts tell us everything about the future success of pitchers, and his are down.

Toronto's Scott Copeland is much the same, at 27, having toiled in the Minors after being a 21st round pick of the Orioles in 2010. With a 42-43, 4.15 minor league record, to go with 458 strikeouts over 692.3 innings, Copeland allowed 711 hits (1.403 WHIP) over those games. Like Jungmann, Copeland had a great first week (1-0, 0.90 over ten innings with four strikeouts), but again, I would not grab Copeland unless you are desperate for an arm in an AL- only format.

Finally, I have been a Kevin Correia fan for a long time, as the pitcher was first drafted by the Giants in the fourth round in 2002. Correia had some nice seasons over his 13 years in the Majors, but he has been pretty bad the last few years (it pained me to dump him from my Strat-O-Matic team, but it was a practical move), so despite his "decent" start (5.3 shutout innings) over the weekend, let him go. He is really just "Philler."

DFS Watch: OK, we are willing to adjust to the fun market of Daily Games. In fact, you know we play FantasyScore and participate in the FanDuel Tout Wars contest, so let's add to our daily MastersDaily coverage and simply pick a couple of series/games/starts this week that look good.

Pitchers to Watch: This week starts with the lesser hurlers (save Dallas Keuchel and Trevor Bauer), but if I had to look at an arm scheduled for a pair of starts, it would be the Braves' Williams Perez, who starts the week with the Red Sox (who have never seen him before) and finishes the week going against the Mets, who have been struggling, and who similarly like to swing the bat. Mind you, this is not a top-of-the-line pick, but a play when you need a jackpot to cash in. 

However, were I to go more top flight, it would be with Francisco Liriano, facing the Pale Hose Monday, and the Nationals over the weekend.

Series to Watch: To me, the big point bonanza should be similarly in the Tigers/Reds series that starts Monday. I really like the likes of Joey Votto, Todd Frazier and the undervalued Brayan Pena going against the likes of Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander. Similarly, all those Tigers sluggers could have a feast against a Reds staff looking for some stability after Johnny Cueto, who is a main reason the team's ERA is as low as 4.18.

Last Updated on Monday, 15 June 2015 08:10
 
Hotpage: June 8, 2015 (Week 10) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 08 June 2015 00:00

How cool is it that the top prospects are being moved to the Majors, with a theoretical "future star" being promoted every week?

It is just great, and impacting every format with guys like Kris Bryant, who might have been grabbed in your ultra league, and even as a reserve pick in your single-season league, but where minor leaguers cannot be rostered, and especially in daily formats, where Bryant, and now the Rangers new toy, Joey Gallo are sought after players costing a pretty price in daily games.

So, what about Gallo, summoned almost by emergency after Adrian Beltre's injury, and Gallo has been an instant hit, and has been hitting, and he could indeed be here to stay despite what seems to be a premature arrival at the Show. True, Gallo does whiff a lot, with 478 minor league strikeouts, but that is pretty normal--a lot of whiffs--in younger players and his 209 walks point to a pretty good .382 OBP over 330 games despite a .268 average. Gallo, just 21 years old, is .313-2-5 thus far and truth is, I do think unless a hideous slump occurs, Gallo is both here to stay, and worth the investment.

As if that were not enough, the Astros have brought forth their top prospect, shortstop Carlos Correa, and handed him the starting gig. Correa, just 20, has ripped through every level of everything, posting a .313-28-199 line over just 282 minor league games, including .276-3-12 totals at Triple-A Fresno this year. Correa has 54 swipes and a solid .394 OBP (133 walks to 211 whiffs) and is a must pick where available in any format.

With Jorge Soler down, Junior Lake is back and getting some platoon time with the Cubbies. I confess a soft spot for Lake, who has a .270-49-278 line over 655 minor league games, with 122 swipes. Lake has had streaky success in the Majors, hitting nine homers over 108 games last year, but he is a free-swinger with a .283 big league OBP (30 walks to 194 whiffs). Still, if you have to fill a hole, he could give a little pop in a deep league while Soler convalesces.

Flipping to some hurlers, a cluster of well thought of ones also raised some eyebrows, starting with the Brewers' Tyler Cravy. A 17th round pick in 2009, Cravy is somewhat under the radar, but his 34-26, 3.66 mark over 466.3 frames belies 448 strikeouts, a 1.22 WHIP, and just 31 homers allowed. Cravy as 6-4, 3.60 over 55 innings at Colorado Springs, and he excelled in his first big league start, taking a loss but allowing just four hits and a run over seven innings. He could be one of those quiet gems.

Last week, I wrote about Shaun Marcum, and this week's version is Dustin McGowan, now both 33, and with the Phillies. McGowan, a first-rounder by the Jays in 2003, had nasty stuff coming up, but also had nasty injuries which delayed his progress, as he missed 2009, 2010 and 2012. McGowan's numbers have looked worse than iffy since this last return especially (1-1, 4.67 ERA, 1.92 WHIP) but he is on a poor team, and still getting his sea legs. Track McGowan in deeper NL formats as he could indeed settle in, again under the radar (which seems to be a theme today) and pick up, then drop as necessary.

Since under the radar is the theme, the Tigers' Kyle Ryan, a 12th round pick by Detroit in 2009, has come up and had some nice success, going 3-0, 2.66, over eight games and a couple of starts--two late last year, one this--with a 1.082 WHIP. Ryan's minor league numbers are not unlike those of Cravy, with a 37-24, 3.66 ERA over 705 frames. Ryan is not a strikeout guy (469 in the Minors), so he is somewhat less desirable in formats like DFS where whiffs are everything, but in a deep AL league, he could be a great fifth or sixth starter, adding some stabilizing stats at the bottom of your rotation. 

Let's close with Joe Ross, the Nationals new toy, and brother to the Padres' Tyson Ross. Joe was pressed into service last weekend, making the jump from Double-A Harrisburg where he was 2-2, 2.81 over nine starts, with a 1.13 WHIP and 54 strikeouts over 51.3 innings. Ross got knocked around a little in his first start, but he has pretty good stuff and presence. Ross is likely to go back down to Triple-A, but he is more than worth grabbing and stashing.

DFS Watch: OK, we are willing to adjust to the fun market of Daily Games, in fact you know we play FantasyScore and participate in the FanDuel Tout Wars contest, so let's add to our daily MastersDaily coverage and simply pick a couple of series/games/starts this week that look good.

Pitchers to Watch: Chris Sale gets a couple of starts, first against the young and swinging Astros (second most MLB whiffs) on Monday, then the Rays (eighth most MLB whiffs) on Saturday. Sale, like his NL counterpart Clayton Kershaw, is settling in as one of the top pitchers in the American League, and he makes a fun play.

If there is a hotter pitcher, that would be Chris Archer, and he is facing those same White Sox on Friday. The Sox don't really strike out so much, but they have a team OBP of .296, and Archer should be able to take care of that team.

Series to Watch: The Blue Jays and Red Sox mix it up over the weekend at Fenway, and if there is a chance to exploit hitters in the DFS universe, that looks like it. Both teams rank among the bottom in pitching, as well as homers allowed, and with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and the very hot Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts all playing, there could be points o' plenty to exploit.

Last Updated on Monday, 08 June 2015 13:59
 
Hotpage: June 1, 2015 (Week 9) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 01 June 2015 00:00

I start writing down names of players I want to cover each week on Monday. Usually, I assemble a list of about 12-13 players during the week depending upon who has been promoted, demoted, and/or started to shine a little, and then whittle the list down to seven or eight on Sunday afternoon, and then write the profiles, hoping the universe looks more or less the same Monday morning as it did Sunday evening.

I marked down Slade Heathcott, a first-round pick of the Pinstripes, on Monday after the Major League newbie whacked a homer, but he then went and strained his quad. Enter Ramon Flores, a 23-year-old Venezuelan who was hitting .294-4-15 with an excellent 23 walks to 28 strikeouts (.389 OBP). Flores is not really a base stealer of late, though in 2012 he swiped 24 at Tampa. 

With Jacoby Ellsbury still down, and the underproducing combination of Carlos Beltran, Garrett Jones and Chris Young, Flores could give your team a boost in an AL-only league, especially if it's an OBP league. 

I love the Rule 5 guys, and Miami's Justin Bour might be the guy from that draft to emerge as a star. Bour, drafted by the Cubs in 2009, likely became expendable as a first baseman, but for Miami he is hitting .361-4-9 over 28 games, with five walks to ten whiffs (.409 OBP), and he is playing every day. Act accordingly.

With Maikel Franco holding down third base, the Phils brought back Cody Asche and are giving him a shot at earning the left field slot. With the release of Grady Sizemore, Asche will have every chance to prove his worth, getting at-bats, so again, if you need plate appearances, he is worth a gamble (and also qualifies at the corner and the outfield).

A bunch of young pitchers came to light this cycle, so let's look at some, starting with the Braves' Williams Perez, a 24-year-old signed in 2009. Over three starts (five total games) and 20.3 innings, Perez has 19 strikeouts and a 1-0, 2.66 mark, albeit with a 1.475 WHIP. Perez struck out 413 over 504 minor league innings, and kept the ball in the yard, allowing just 27 homers. Depending upon the depth of your league, he can indeed make a reasonable flier. However, there are other choices today. 

bettisChad Bettis was a second-round pick of the Rockies in 2010 who had some unsuccessful bouts in the Majors, first in 2013 (1-3, 5.64) and then last year (0-2, 9.12). But this year, the 26-year-old might have figured out the next level. Bettis has mastered the Minors with a 26-16, 3.03 record over 389 innings with 389 strikeouts, so ideally the 2-0, 2.96 mark over four big league starts this season (27.3 innings), with 22 strikeouts is a sign of things to come. There is the Coors factor, of course, but Bettis has fared well, especially if your league allows streaming.

The Tigers brought up Buck Farmer to make a start, likely based upon his 5-1, 2.91 record at Toledo over nine starts and 51.3 innings, with 50 punchouts and just one homer allowed. Farmer went through Bettis-like first time wobbles with the Tigers, however, with seven runs allowed over five innings in his first start this year, so I would probably pass on Farmer until he at least passes the Bettis test.

As wonderful a name as is Buck Farmer, Chi Chi Gonzalez (though his real name is Alexander) of the Rangers has an even better moniker. And he's coming off a brilliant start with over five innings of shutout, two-hit ball, although with just a pair of strikeouts, and five walks. The 2013 first-round pick out of Oral Roberts was 3-5, 4.15 this year at Round Rock when called up, and though he did debut brilliantly, I might wait a bit before I trusted any chips on Chi Chi.

I feel pretty much the same about the Fish's Jose Urena, a 23-year-old Dominican who was 4-0, 1.21, also with just one homer allowed over 37.3 innings, with 22 strikeouts, although Urena got pounded in his first Major League start, so again, keep the long-term eye on him (and Gonzalez) but pass for now.

DFS Watch: OK, we are willing to adjust to the fun market of Daily Games, in fact you know we play FantasyScore and participate in the FanDuel Tout Wars contest, so let's add to our daily MastersDaily coverage and simply pick a couple of series/games/starts this week that look good.

Let's start with Clayton Kershaw, going against the Rockies (who have a tough time with lefties, and whiff a lot), albeit in Denver. If Kershaw is the dominant pitcher he was last week against the Braves, however, it probably doesn't matter where the lefty throws.

Come the weekend, the White Sox and Tigers meet, and aside from David Price pitching for Detroit Saturday, and Jeff Samardzija for the Pale Hose Sunday, pitching in general should be iffy, making Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez potentially nice plays. Turn into the MastersDaily each day for our day-to-day selections.

Last Updated on Monday, 01 June 2015 09:25
 
Hotpage: May 25, 2015 (Week 8) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 25 May 2015 00:00

It is Memorial Day, so a wonderful and safe and happy day to you and yours as we hit the first real milepost of the season long fantasy format.

I actually just started making some trades in NL LABR, where my team could be dangerous given some strong pitching here on out, and I have the guys to do just that. On the other hand, in AL Tout, falling short, and simply playing the wire actively and hoping for a hot streak.

Anyway, here we are, looking at some newbies and perhaps under the radar players lurking in your league's reserve pool to give the boost I am looking for on my teams.

It is as much fun seeing the influx and development of the ever interesting Astros, and the team's newest toy, Lance McCullers, is it. A first rounder in 2012 (and son of a former MLB hurler with the same name), McCullers has a fine 304 minor league strikeouts, the main stat over his 12-16, 3.79 record over 256.3 innings. It is the 24 homers and 128 walks (1.364 WHIP) that might be of concern, but if you need to add an arm, he is as good a bet as you will get right now.

Puerto Rican native Alex Claudio was drafted in the 27th round in 2010, performing almost exclusively as a reliever, earning 17 saves while whiffing 279 over 268.6 innings with an excellent 0.983 WHIP. The 23-year-old has put up solid numbers with the Rangers overall (1-0, 3.05 20 strikeouts over 20.6 frames) and is 1-0 this year over 8.3 innings. If you are looking for stabilization in your pitching, rather than innings, he could be a good choice and a pitcher with an expanding role.

Looking to a couple of sort of lost souls, the Pirates brought outfielder Jose Tabata back to the Majors, and if you are in a deep NL-only format, he could be a bit of a help as a fifth outfielder. Hard to believe, but Tabata is just 26 still, and he was raking at Indianapolis (.352-0-4) and really has very little more he can do in the Minors anyway. I have always been a big fan, going back to seeing the outfielder at the Fall League, so I am rooting for him. By the way, as a cheap end right-handed platoon in a Daily format, Tabata could be a good and cheap play here and there.

Remember when it seemed like the Red Sox had as many hot outfield possiblities as the Dodgers? Well, Rusney Castillo, one of the many "next big things" is finally in the bigs after he began the season in Pawtucket, hitting .293-2-10 with six swipes over 82 plate appearances. Castillo replaces a like former hopeful, Jackie Bradley, but I am not certain just how much playing time he will get. A year older than Tabata, he is not as advanced, but Boston will probably want to get something back from their seven-year, $70 million commitment. I still like Tabata better. 

With Devon Travis down, the question is who to grab between the recently recalled Munenori Kawasaki and journeyman Steven Tolleson. Tolleson has hit pretty well (.263-0-2 with a pair of swipes) playing all over, and though Kawasaki can steal, his offense (.233-1-48) over 241 games is not much, so there could be a split of time between the two while Travis convalesces. But, another thought is Danny Valencia, who can play all over and is hitting (.348-1-10 with a pair of steals) and he could get some time there too. If I had to plug the gap, it would be Tolleson, though.

Back to a couple of hurlers, Carter Capps is back with the Fish after rehab, and he could well become a source of saves on a team that needs a steady closer. While A.J. Ramos currently holds the job after the latest Steve Cishek meltdown, he only has one save. Capps was thought to be the next closer in Seattle a few years back. A hard thrower, Capps has 11 strikeouts over his first six innings, and he's allowed just a run and three hits. Just saying.

Finally, Shaun Marcum is a guy I have really loved for a bunch of years, but injuries and ineffectiveness got in the way of my man-love for the guy. Marcum lost 2009 and 2014 to injuries, but he is now in the Tribe's rotation with a 1-0, 2.31 mark over two games and a start with 10 punchouts over 11.6 innings. He is now 33, so ideally a little older, wiser, and better. I hope he does well (I think he will).

That is it for this time. Again, have a great holiday and don't forget to follow our DFS suggestions at MastersDaily and play against us at FantasyScore every day.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 May 2015 14:22
 
Hotpage: May 18, 2015 (Week 7) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 18 May 2015 00:00

With the surprising return of Alex Rodriguez, and amazing resurgence of Matt Harvey from serious surgery, there is another return that might just be worth tracking. The Phillies' Grady Sizemore had his mojo so dialed in for the Indians between 2005-08, missing only nine games during the four years, and averaging .281-27-86 with 24 swipes until the injury bottom fell unto him. Over the next three years, Sizemore could only play in 210 total games, hitting 28 big flies with an anemic average in the low .240's. By 2012, he was done in Cleveland.

Sizemore then spent a couple of years getting healthy, and in 2014 he hit a sad .233-5-27 over 112 games split between Boston and Philadelphia and the former top-3 round pick had become an afterthought.

Now 32, Sizemore is still with the Phillies, and though he is not performing as in his former peak, his numbers are up to .275-0-6, of with .348-0-5 has been accumulated over the past three weeks. Not saying you should pluck Sizemore from the FAAB pile expecting too much, but a fifth outfielder who can hit in the .270's is not a bad thing, and maybe we will see a little of the Sizemore former flash. That would be nice.

While we are looking at the Phils, it appears that with the demotion of Cody Asche, the Maikel Franco era might have begun. A 22-year-old Dominican, Franco caused a buzz following his .320-31-103 season in 2013, split between Reading and Clearwater at age 20. 

There was enough interest that I drafted Franco as a reserve pick in LABR in 2014, a move that did not pan out, but after hitting .355-4-24 over 33 games, the Phils wisely determined there is not much more to be accomplished at Triple-A. Franco is a blue chipper to be grabbed wherever possible.

I was going to write about Randal Grichuk several weeks back, but then he went on the DL and the interest was side-stepped. Grichuk, who was hitting .286-1-2 when he went down, was a first rounder of the Angels in 2009, and swapped to St. Louis as part of the 2013 David Freese deal.

The outfielder was hitting .259-25-71 when summoned in 2014, and he did contribute some timely hitting during the stretch run. However, Grichuk does like to swing the bat (28 walks to 108 whiffs last year), so that is something to watch. But with Jon Jay down, Grichuk could establish himself and give your team a little boost of pop. I like him and think he can learn the Major League zone. 

I was big enough on Micah Johnson coming out of camp to buy him for my Tout Wars AL team. Since that team is in last place, and faring just awfully, you can take that with a grain of salt. There is something odd though, with a rookie hitting .270-0-3 with three swipes (two caught stealing) and eight runs over 27 games, and being demoted. 

Johnson was having trouble with his glove (three errors) but the thing that is interesting is his numbers don't necessarily look bad, his WAR is -0.8 which isn't so good. But, it does sort of modify my Tout team, which doesn't seem as awful as it really is.

That might explain last place, or even the demotion, but the point is Carlos Sanchez, who almost even grabbed the starting job during the spring, was promoted and given the second base slot. Sanchez was hitting .344-2-17 with five swipes. If you have to fill a middle infield slot, and need some speed, and especially if you were hot on Johnson, you can probably add Sanchez and get some production. 

I am starving for fifth and sixth starters in all my single-season throw-back leagues, so that means a lot of scouring for pitchers. I know the Yankees activated the occassionally successful yet oft injured Chris Capuano. Overall, Capuano's 76-87, 4.28 line with a 1.341 WHIP and 7.5 strikeouts per nine is not particularly inspiring. Neither was three innings, four runs, and a loss yesterday. In a deep format, I would either leave the spot open or slide a reliever into an open spot.

Let's finish it the "Wright" way. That would be starting with the Orioles' Mike Wright, a third-round pick in 2011 by Baltimore. Wright has advanced well enough, but has also had control issues in the Minors with 510 hits and 121 walks over 477.6 innings (1.321 WHIP). Although, this year at Norfolk, Wright was 3-0, 2.64 over 30.6 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.109 WHIP, and the big (6'6", 240 pounds) right-hander pitched 7.3 innings of four-hit shutout ball Sunday, besting the Yankees. If I am looking at pitching, I am looking here for sure, as opposed to guys like Capuano.

Last Updated on Monday, 18 May 2015 09:36
 
Hotpage: May 11, 2015 (Week 6) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 11 May 2015 00:00

It's been a big week for promoted prospects this past cycle, and a fun week for hitters, but for my teams a rugged one for everyone. Sorry to see my man Allen Craig demoted. Craig, a UC Berkeley alum, was such a great hitter with the Cardinals, but his body seems to have failed him, much like Carlos Quentin (maybe they can start their own team, and invite Jarrod Parker and Alex Cobb to join?).

Irrespective, the games and season march along, and so do the promotions with the demotions, so let's take a peak and derive what we can, starting up the middle with the Yanks, who brought spring training phenom Jose Pirela back, ostensibly to be the second baseman for the team. Pirela hit .370-0-5 over 15 spring games (1.030 OBP) and with the anemic Stephen Drew (.182-4-7) holding onto the keystone for now, I cannot imagine the youngster being promoted in order to sit. The 25-year-old Venezuelan should be grabbed in deeper leagues if available.

Sticking with the middle, I have been a Jedd Gyorko fan for three years now, but I am getting weary of waiting for him to return to a shadow of his rookie self. I guess the Padres are as well, as former #1 pick (2011) Cory Spangenberg is getting some serious playing time, and could uproot the powerful but unproductive Gyorko. But, Spangenberg has been getting on with a .289-0-1 line with three swipes and five walks to nine whiffs (.360 OBP). Four of those walks did come last Friday in a game where the second sacker also tripled and amassed 11 DFS points, so he's at least worth tracking.

Turning to some backstops, Matt Wieters was supposed to be the thing, the best catcher since Johnny Bench and on and on. Wieters has obviously fallen somewhat short of expectations, including the injury that felled him last year, and still has the back-stop backed up. Well, Caleb Joseph, who has spelled Wieters for the most part since the injury, has picked it up and could be giving the Orioles the old quarterback controversy, save behind the dish. Joseph is hitting. .311-3-9 with 11 walks to 19 strikeouts over 22 games, and is the next big new thing at catcher since Stephen Vogt. I like this guy, and I hope the Orioles stick with him as he quietly succeeds.

Carlos Perez, a 24-year-old countrymate of Pirela, was summoned to help the Angels behind the dish where the ineffective Chris Iannetta (.091-0-1 over 22 games) has been trying to hold down things. Perez has a pretty good minor league resume of .280-22-265 over 555 games, with 245 walks to 332 strikeouts (.361 OBP) and has broken out well with .357-1-3 over his first four games. Perez came to the Angels last fall in exchange for Hank Conger.

Across town from theAngels, the Dodgers rotation is in a tailspin, although they have received some ballast with the arrival of Carlos Frias, who is 3-0, 2.13 over three starts and 12.6 innings. The downside with Frias, however, is he is not a strikeout pitcher (456 stirkeouts over 554.6 minor league frames with a 1.417 WHIP, and 582 hits allowed). He is hot, but I suspect the league will catch up.

Similarly, I would steer clear of Chad Billingsley, who started his second game since 2013 for the Phillies, allowing five runs and eight hits over five innings in taking a loss to the Mets. Billingsley was interesting in 2007 (12-5, 3.31), better in 2008 (16-10, 3.14) and then the bottom started to fall off finishing with the injury and TJ surgery and a year off. I was on the Billingsley bandwagon but fell off, and just don't have much faith in the guy, I am sorry to say.

One other pitcher I am checking out due to desperation in Tout Wars is Matt Andriese, a third-round pick of the Pads in 2011 who was then swapped to the Rays for Jesse Hahn (and the Pads then turned him into Derek Norris). Since I need arms, I am taking a stab at Andriese, who is not a strikeout guy either (411 over 486.6 innings), though he does have a nice minor league WHIP of 1.200. Since I am sitting on Sam Deduno and Chris Bassitt, well, I can more than afford to take the chance.

Saving the best for last, perhaps the most exciting Major League arrival this week is that of Noah Syndergaard, whose presence should really be a boon to the already giddy fans of the Mets. Syndergaard, who is replacing the injured Dillon Gee, was drafted in the first round by the Jays in 2010 and then swapped as part of the R.A. Dickey trade. All I really need to say about Syndergaard's minor league line is 508 strikeouts over 451.3 innings with a 1.207 WHIP. He was 3-0, 1.82 with an 0.994 WHIP to go with 34 strikeouts over 29.3 innings at Las Vegas of the hit happy Pacific Coast League when summoned, and should be owned wherever and whenever possible.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 11 May 2015 22:54
 
Hotpage: May 4, 2015 (Week 5) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 04 May 2015 00:00

Another week, another interesting catching prospect is brought forth, that being Blake Swihart. Boston's #1 selection in 2011 (as a high school senior), Swihart had a fine .300-12-55 line at Double-A Portland last year, and that prompted a move up to Pawtucket, where over 18 games, he hit .261-1-9. Swihart returned to Triple-A to start this year, playing another 18 games (.338-0-11), and with the Ryan Hanigan injury, it became prime time for the 23-year-old Swihart. He is a fun and interesting pick, and another in a long line of promising Boston backstops, so gamble if you have a hole in a deep league, but don't be disappointed--or surprised--if he struggles.

The Brewers' Jason Rogers is of a kind I really love. A 32nd round pick in 2010, he has simply played pretty well, posting a .288-63-314 record over six seasons with a solid .368 OBP (238 walks to 357 strikeouts), and he put together a great season split between Huntsville and Nashville (.296-18-82) in 2014. Rogers, a first/third baseman, is hitting .412-0-0 over his first 17 at-bats, and he just seems like one of those hardworking guys who will be successful simply because he is a hardworking guy.

OK, switching to some arms, let's start with a couple of youngsters. First, Michael Lorenzen was the Reds' first-rounder in 2013 out of Cal State Fullerton. Lorenzen has had decent success in the Minors, going 7-8, 3.08 over 49 games (28 starts) and 160.6 innings. However, he is not a strikeout pitcher (115) and not only is his control still under development (1.326 WHIP with 152 hits and 61 walks), but what concerns me are the dingers. Lorenzen allowed 13 in the Minors, and I watched his start last week, where he pitched well enough for a first start, allowing eight hits over his first five innings; however, three of those hits were homers. I'd pass.

Even though A.J. Cole was pounded for a lot more damage (two innings, nine runs) in his debut than Lorenzen, I like his future a lot more. Cole, a fourth-round pick of the Nationals, has posted a 33-25, 3.55 record over 515.3 minor league frames, with 514 whiffs to 120 walks (519 hits) with a 1.24 WHIP. Though the 47 homers he's allowed are a greater percentage than Lorenzen, less baserunners means less damage. Cole has been well enough thought of to have been part of deals that involved Gio Gonzalez and Mike Morse.

For some older arms, Marco Estrada is now in the Jays rotation following the demotion of Daniel Norris. Estrada's win/loss (24-26), and even ERA (4.16) totals might not look too encouraging, but he has a career 1.178 WHIP over 551.6 innings with 519 strikeouts. He makes for a great free agent pickup in AL-only leagues, as he's 1-0, 0.84 over 10.6 relief innings so far this season.

Sam Deduno is filling in as a spot starter with the red-hot Astros, and he has picked up the gauntlet. Deduno came up as a starter but has really been a reliever since 2014. At 31, his pen experience seems to have made him a better strikeout pitcher (94 over 113 frames as a reliever as opposed to 119 over 193.6 as a starter), and he could be a nice sleeper starter in a deep league. He did go 8-8, 3.83 over 108 innings as a starter for the Twins in 2013, though his 2012 and 2014 numbers were not so pleasing. Still, Houston has a magic touch right now, and Deduno, who will be in the rotation for another week at least, makes for a fairly safe play.

Finishing with a couple of outfielders, the Cubs activated that wiley old veteran, Chris Denorfia. I say old as Denorfia, who is 34, is on a team full of first-year players of course, but he is also a pretty good hitter who should get some at-bats to spell the youngsters, and also provide that veteran presence. Denorfia has a career .272-38-172 line over 1,978 career at-bats, and I would expect him to get 275 or so at-bats through the balance of the season and hit around .270-8-40 with maybe even a few steals. You could do worse!

Finally, looking for some juice, the Athletics brought back speedster Billy Burns. The 25-year-old outfielder has a great on-base line of .387 (211 walks to 245 strikeouts) and a .289 batting average along with 184 swipes over 406 games. Kind of Ben Revere-like in that Burns has very little pop (.357 minor league slugging percentage), but he is a leadoff hitter who makes things happen, and he likely will continue to do so until Coco Crisp returns, at least.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 04 May 2015 08:44
 
Hotpage: April 27, 2015 (Week 4) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 27 April 2015 00:00

Does it seem like every time this year we are bemoaning that this must be the worst year ever with respect to injuries?

Adam Wainwright, Ben Zobrist, Yasiel Puig, Jonathan Lucroy (catcher seems particularly injury prone so far) and on and on. Well, I am just as hammered as you, so let's see if we can find some innings and at-bats hiding out there in the reserve pool?

San Francisco is on the verge of some change, I think. Justin Maxwell (.308-3-9) has been beyond effective against lefties, to start. Drafted by the Nationals in the fourth round in 2005, Maxwell was a reserve guy who struggled till the Astros obtained his services and he went .229-18-53 over 124 games in 2012. Then it was back to nondescript back-up, with the Astros and then Royals before moving to the Giants this year. 

I think the Giants are a team in transition, and with Gregor Blanco (.233-0-3) and Brandon Belt (.234-0-4) both struggling, and with Hunter Pence due back, and the potential of Andrew Susac (.385-1-1), I think the Giants have some roster options, especially in deference to prolonging the career of Buster Posey. As for Maxwell, ride the hot hand, but don't expect it to last all season, for the return of Pence means the Giants have a stable starting three.

Is anyone more exasperating than Ryan Raburn to fantasy owners? From out of nowhere in 2008-09, to a solid value between 2010-2012, then back to mediocrity in 2013 (.171-1-12), then a resurgence with the Tribe (,272-16-55), and the skids (.200-4-22) and now what appears to be a hot year starting with .364-1-7 so far. If Raburn is still in your free agent pool, grab him, especially in an AL-only.

With Ben Zobrist injured, look to Eric Sogard (.265-0-4) to get the bulk of playing time, though expect the team to promote Tyler Ladendorf to pick up the utility spot, and perhaps even face left-handed batters in lieu of Sogard. Ladendorf has some speed, and has developed a reasonable eye (.376 OBP last year at Triple-A, with 35 walks to 56 whiffs) and could even deliver a little speed. But, Sogard is the play in an AL-only.

The struggles of Kendall Graveman means Jesse Chavez should get the bulk of starts, by the way, which is just fine. Though Jarrod Parker, and then A.J. Griffin, are working their way back to the rotation, so that time in the rotation could be fleeting. And, do keep an eye on Graveman, a definite talent who needs to adjust to the next level a little more than just spring training.

A quick word in support of the Royals' Brandon Finnegan, the team's first round pick last year who made both an end of season and postseason appearance, but lost the numbers game this spring. Finnegan is the owner of an 0-1, 3.86 line over a pair of starts at Northwest Arkansas, and he has the stuff that could displace either Jeremy Guthrie or Jason Vargas should they prove ineffective. Finnegan is a comer in any format.

The same is true for the Cubs new second sacker Addison Russell, who has both displaced Javier Baez, and who is likely now the second sacker of the future with the Cubs. Forget the other guys, Russell, the Athletics first round pick in 2011 who was part of the Jeff Samardzija swap, has pretty much nowhere to go but up. The 21-year-old was hitting .318-1-9 at Iowa before his call-up, and he may have some struggles, but Russell is unlikely to go back down now, and more likely to establish himself in what will shortly be the best infield in the Majors.

Add Adam Ottavino to the ever growing list of Rockies closers. The 29-year-old, who has been a solid enough setup man the last pair of years, now has three conversions for the team. In the spirit of Curt Leskanic, Jerry Dipoto, Bruce Ruffin, Darren Holmes, Shawn Chacon, Dave Veres and Manny Corpas, to name a few, welcome Ottavino to your roster where you can while he lasts. It could be till the end of this season, but likely not too far into next. Rockies closers never seem to carry over, year-to-year.

Four Dodgers to watch: Alex Guerrero, Andre Ethier, Scott Baker and Mike Bolsinger. Guerrero (.500-5-13) is screaming to be starting at third while Ethier (.342-2-6) is raking like he did when the Dodgers signed him to a multi-year contract through 2017. While Yasiel Puig is down, Ethier will get at least time against right-handers.

Then with Brandon McCarthy potentially gone, former Twin Scott Baker, who tossed seven decent frames (four hits, six whiffs, two walks, two homers) against the Padres on Sunday. For now, either Baker or 27-year- old Mike Bolsinger (who started Thursday against the Giants, rather effectively), who is 2-0, 0.00 over a pair of starts and 11 innings (17 whiffs) at Oklahoma City.

Finally, I would gamble first on Carlos Villanueva to pick up the rotation slot vacated by Wainwright. Still just 31, Villanueva has started 76 games in the Majors, and was working well enough in long relief for the Redbirds (though used for just 2.6 frames this year). Of course, this is for an NL-only, but there you have it.

Last Updated on Monday, 27 April 2015 08:25
 
Hotpage: Apri 20, 2015 (Week 3) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 20 April 2015 00:00

What a wild Week 2, and among honoring Jackie Robinson, being awestruck by the Kris Bryant promotion, and amazed J.P. Arencibia still has a career, what actual strategic nuggets can we try to glean for Week 3?

Certainly injury replacements, rather than icons or the new hot thing in the game, was the big topic, and let's start with the red-hot Mets, who lost backstop Travis d'Arnaud to a fractured hand. The team has Anthony Recker lurking, but I would bet that Kevin Plawecki, the team's 2012 #1 selection out of Purdue, sees the playing time. The 24-year-old hit a solid .309-11-64 split between Double-A and Triple-A last year, though he is off to a slow .229-0-6 start at Las Vegas, and I would bet he gets the first chance to grow with this young and fun team of Metropolitans.

In Kansas City, the hot-hitting but equally brittle Alex Rios is down and that means speedy Jarrod Dyson has a chance to get some regular playing time. However, keep an eye open for Paulo Orlando, a 29-year-old Brazilian by birth, who has some very good minor league hitting numbers. With a .314-63-404 line over 1017 games, Orlando hit 63 triples, 164 doubles, and swiped 200 bags, and he might just be a Mike Aviles/Yangervis Solarte kind of pleasant late bloomer. 

Jake Peavy is down, and I am having a bad feeling about this year and the future. Not that I don't love the Jake, but back injuries. Ugh. But, if you are looking to the Giants for a replacement, I would steer clear of Ryan Vogelsong and should Yusmeiro Petit be available, grab him.

Petit is not a hard-thrower, but he does throw strikes, and gets whiffs (190 over 177 frames as a Giant). In fact, with San Francisco, Petit, who is just 30, has a 9-6, 3.71 mark with a 1.107 WHIP. Those are very good numbers.

OK, Nick Martinez: Who knew? Well, for one, I should have been paying more attention to the 24-year-old Fordham graduate, who put together a pretty good 23-16, 3.26 mark over four seasons and 338.6 innings. Martinez, who has never pitched above Double-A within the Minors, struck out 302 while compiling a WHIP of 1.221. He is also off to a very good 2015 with a 2-0, 0.00 record over 14 innings and a couple of starts. I think I may have underestimated him, not that he will be another Clayton Kershaw, but he could be Tim Hudson, and that is very good.

It seems like I have waited so long for Yonder Alonso to get good. In fact, I had the first baseman for a number of years in different leagues, and he just never panned out, despite flashes. I traded for Alonso in the XFL (along with Matt Moore) when Alonso was a rookie, and did get his .273-9-62 2012, which was ok, but not good enough to freeze.

At least it was not what I was expecting, nor was it worth $13 as a third-year player, but now, at 28 years old, perhaps Yonder has figured out hitting? He is clubbing to the tune of .342-1-4, to go with eight walks to seven whiffs. I want this to be true, even if I cannot personally trust him, you know?

Back to some injury replacements, Eric Campbell looks to get playing time for the injured David Wright. Campbell, and eighth-rounder in 2008 out of Boston College (Lord Z's Alma Mater), has hit .287-45-318 over 667 games, with the last three seasons all being at Triple-A Las Vegas. The problem for Campbell is that he is stuck behind Wright, but he makes a good play if you need a stick while Wright convalesces.

I like 26-year-old Dominican Jimmy Paredes, who will get playing time in Baltimore while Jonathan Schoop heals, though I'm not sure why (I did draft, and then release him from my Strat-O-Matic team), as Paredes was signed by the Yankees in 2006, and then swapped to the Astros as part of the Lance Berkman deal in 2010. The infielder was then plucked off waivers by the Marlins, Orioles, then Royals before being sold back to the O's near last year's trade deadline.

Paredes is a crazy free-swinger with 563 minor league strikeouts to 131 walks, and just 23 free passes to 128 strikeouts in the Majors, so it is hard to recommend him, and he obviously can be streaky but, unless you just need a placeholder, I would steer clear.

Wade Davis is the closer in Kansas City until Greg Holland returns, and for sure Davis can strike out batters, as witnessed by his 109 punchouts over 71 frames last year. He is a terrific addition if not already snatched up in your league. (Though my guess is Davis was grabbed on draft day, like Brad Boxberger and Kevin Quackenbush.)

This is an official Yasmany Tomas "Lost in Space Will Robinson Danger, Danger, Warning." He is raw, and cannot play Major League defense, nor can he hit Big League pitching. Let someone else take the risk.

And, don't forget. Early first pitch on Patriot's Day.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 20 April 2015 08:44
 
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