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Shadow FAABing in TOUT NL PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Perry Van Hook   
Monday, 15 April 2013 13:28

I made a remark in Brian Walton’s column about the perceived devaluation of FAAB in the NL TOUT league where Brian is a combatant (and previous winner) and I am the SWAT. I made a list of players who were available on Saturday before Sunday night’s bidding.

I hadn’t even listed Tony Cingrani who broke banks in TOUT leagues on Sunday and likely will next week in the NFBC assuming he is called up to fill in on Wednesday for the DLed Johnny Cueto.

On the hitting side I listed five players – two were picked up, two were not and one was so deep it even eluded those astute owners (but maybe you can use it)

  1. Ramiro Pena, 3B, ATL was added by our own Todd Zola and I am surprised there were no other bids because Pena could be platooned with Juan Francisco by the Braves as long as they need Chris Johnson to play first base. Maybe Todd noted my Saturday night pick up in an even deeper NL only league where we compete.
  2. But Austin Kearns, OF, MIA was not bid on at all. Not the Kearns of yore but playing as long as Giancarlo is nursing his sore arm
  3. Nick Noonan, 2B, SF was added even though he rates to get less at bats than
  4. Shane Robinson, OF, STL who might score a run or steal a base in his caddy role
  5. Finally in the really deep end of the pool I thought one of the touts would add Blake Lalli, MLW who qualifies at C and is playing a little first base for the Brewers and has some power.

On the pitching side it was also Touts 2, Shadower 3

  1. Shawn Camp, CHC was added in hopes of a save or two while the Cubs try and sort out their bullpen, as was
  2. Edward Mujica, STL a very good arm who may get a chance if Mitchell Boggs and Trevor Rosenthal continue to blow leads/games.
  3. Jon Garland, COL was not offered even a $0 bid by the touts and while he isn’t great, he has pitched better in his two starts for the Rockies than many rostered pitchers
  4. Chad Gaudin, SF was rumored to get a possible start or two for the Giants and despite another poor start by Tim Lincecum wasn’t added in this league but was in others
  5. Finally if the touts were going to going to add Frankie Rodriguez and Brian Wilson (okay maybe it was just Lenny Melnick), could David Aardsma be a worse idea?
Last Updated on Monday, 15 April 2013 15:13
 
Tout Wars FAAB Report: Week of April 15 PDF Print E-mail
MASTERSBLOG
Written by Administrator   
Monday, 15 April 2013 01:17

toutbanner

Each week, your friends at Mastersball will post the results of the weekly Tout Wars FAAB run, featuring the winning bid as well as the runner-up bids. There are four Tout Wars leagues, a 12-team AL only, 12-team NL only, 15-team Mixed Auction League and 15-team Mixed Draft League. The Mixed leagues use on-base-percentage instead of batting average. You can see the complete standings for each league by clicking on the appropriate heading, located just under each player photo.

Tout Wars uses a Vickrey system to award bids. For a complete description of the Vickrey system, click HERE for the Tout Wars constitution.

Included with each league report will be commentary from a Mastersball staff member participating in that league. We invite you to ask questions and post comments at the bottom of the report.

All contingency bids for awarded players are included. Sometimes, this is a bid tied to a player that the owner received, so at times the bid amount is larger than the winning bid. We are including it to provide as much information and context as possible with each report.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

marwin

PLAYERS AWARDED

Player Awarded Winning Bid
MGonzalez, Hou 8 Lawr Michaels 7 Jeff Erickson 4 Matthew Berry 3 Mike Siano
3 Ron Shandler 2 Joe Sheehan 0 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton
AHarang, Sea 3 (16) Rob Leibowitz 2 Mike Siano 1 Jeff Erickson
CWells, Tor 3 (6) Joe Sheehan 2 Mike Siano
JCarroll, Min 3 (4) Rob Leibowitz 2 Lawr Michaels
RAndino, Sea 1 Lawr Michaels 0 Mike Siano 0 Jeff Erickson 0 Ron Shandler
KCorreia, Min 1 (5) Ron Shandler 4 Rob Leibowitz 1 Jeff Erickson
EnChavez, Sea 1 (3) Matthew Berry 0 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton
MTaylor, Oak 1 (3) Jeff Erickson 0 Ron Shandler
FRodriguez, FA 1 (6) Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton
OArcia, Min 1 (11) Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton
RCruz, Hou 0 Mike Siano
YGomes, Cle 0 Mike Siano
CResop, Oak 0 Steve Moyer
MTuiasosopo, Det 0 Ron Shandler

 UNAWARDED CONTINGENCY BIDS

LGarcia, Tex 4 Joe Sheehan
BCecil, Tor 2 Ron Shandler 0 Rob Leibowitz 0 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton
TScheppers, Tex 2 Joe Sheehan
LJimenez, LAA 2 Jeff Erickson 0 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton
AWarren, NYY 1 Ron Shandler 0 Mike Siano
BHarris, LAA 1 Jeff Erickson
JGrimm, Tex 1 Jeff Erickson 0 Rob Leibowitz
DDowns, Det 0 Ron Shandler
EScribner, Oak 0 Ron Shandler
JBlevins, Oak 0 Ron Shandler
JShuck, LAA 0 Ron Shandler
MLindstrom, CWS 0 Ron Shandler
AParrino, Oak 0 Rob Leibowitz
ARomine, LAA 0 Rob Leibowitz 0 Matthew Berry
AMiller, Bos 0 Mike Siano
JChamberlain, NYY 0 Mike Siano
RSantiago, Det 0 Mike Siano

 Rob Leibowitz Commentary

So like many fantasy owners this week, I have the burden of asking myself , "How the heck am I going to replace Jose Reyes!”. Well, sadly, the answer especially for AL only players is, "I'm not.", barring a trade. Given how early it is in the season, that’s an unlikely occurrence, so the only option you really have is to look for filler. Jamey Carroll, sadly, came to the top of my list and I threw down a $4, “I feel dirty”, bid there and ended up obtaining him for $3. Carroll has always had a great bat control and has the potential to hit for average, but provides little else especially at age 39. Andrew Romine might have a better temporary fill-in as the Angels may give him plenty of playing time with Erick Aybar on the DL. Romine makes pretty good contact and has some speed and might help soften the blow (not really) of losing Reyes’ stolen bases.

While I am not in any way high on Aaron Harang as noted in my Diamond Exchange last week, a $3 bid won the chance to see if he has anything left in the tank. I actually bid into the teens, with the thinking that veterans with some history of success do not often come along this early in the season, but the next highest bid was $2.  I would let the apathy of the Touts towards Harang be a guide in your bidding this week. After all, in all likelihood, we are talking about a 4+ ERA starter for the rest of the season unless Harang can rediscover his once above average command and control.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

cingrani

PLAYERS AWARDED

Player Awarded Winning Bid
TCingrani, Cin 52 (69) Chris Liss 51 Phil Hertz 32 Brian Walton 31 Tristan H. Cockcroft
30 Lenny Melnick 15 Mike Gianella 15 Mike Gianella
14 Derek Carty 11 Peter Kreutzer
JMahoney, Mia 4 (17) Todd Zola 3 Phil Hertz
SCamp, ChC 4 (5) Brian Walton 3 Tristan H. Cockcroft 2 Peter Kreutzer 1 Chris Liss
EMujica, StL 3 Mike Gianella 2 Phil Hertz
CCoghlan, Mia 2 Phil Hertz 1 Tristan H. Cockcroft
RPena, Atl 1 (3) Todd Zola
RDolis, ChC 1 (2) Peter Kreutzer
DRobinson, Cin 1 Mike Gianella
ECarrera, Phi 1 Mike Gianella
BWilson, FA 1 Lenny Melnick
FRodriguez, FA 1 (2) Lenny Melnick
DThayer, SD 1 Brian Walton 2 Chris Liss 0 Peter Kreutzer
EOFlaherty, Atl 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft 0 Phil Hertz
MDunn, Mia 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
NNoonan, SF 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
JHarrison, Pit 0 Scott Wilderman
MBowden, ChC 0 Peter Kreutzer
WNieves, Ari 0 Brian Walton

 UNAWARDED CONTINGENCY BIDS

AGonzalez, ChC 3 Todd Zola
JHannahan, Cin 3 Todd Zola 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
ARamos, Mia 1 Mike Gianella 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
ARamos, Mia 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
JHoover, Cin 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
JHughes, Pit 0 Tristan H. Cockcroft
ASimon, Cin 0 Peter Kreutzer
JWilson, Pit 0 Peter Kreutzer
LOndrusek, Cin 0 Peter Kreutzer
TSipp, Ari 0 Peter Kreutzer
ARecker, NYM 0 Brian Walton
BZiegler, Ari 0 Brian Walton 0 Peter Kreutzer
HQuintero, Phi 0 Brian Walton

Brian Walton's Commentary

 Another week, another run of injuries thinned the NL ranks. Central Division favorite Cincinnati lost top starter Johnny Cueto to a lat strain that could linger. The door is open for left-handed prospect Tony Cingrani, who has put up video game numbers in the minors. Even when Cueto returns, Cingrani could stay on to replace Mike Leake.

I bid with that and the Reds' strong offense in mind, putting almost one-third of my full-season stipend on the table, $32. The good news? I edged defending league champ Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN by $1 and lapped several other owners. The bad news? Phil Hertz of BaseballHQ went $51, setting RotoWire's Chris Liss' winning bid of $52 ($69 before Vickrey).

Being the closer for the Cubs is akin to drumming for Spinal Tap. Carlos Marmol actually showed some resiliency, losing the job multiple times. Kyuji Fujikawa had the job for less than two weeks before admitting forearm soreness. What that means for the long-term remains to be seen, but we have seen Tommy John situations begin similarly.

Looking at Cubs Plans C and D, James Russell is already owned. Shawn Camp diminished his free agent value when yielding four runs to the Giants in 1 1/3 innings on Sunday. Holding my nose, I bid just $5 and rostered Camp for $4 (Vickrey).

Another chaotic closer situation is in St. Louis. Like Fujikawa, formerly-dependable Jason Motte is out indefinitely and could be heading for TJS. Mitchell Boggs blew another save opportunity on Sunday and young gun Trevor Rosenthal does not appear to be ready, either. Baseball Prospectus' Mike Gianella went $46 in a speculative play for Edward Mujica, reduced to just $3 by Vickrey.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION 

bailey

PLAYERS AWARDED

Player Awarded Winning Bid
TCingrani, Cin 11 Fred Zinkie 10 Eric Mack 3 Nicholas Minnix 2 Paul Singman
1 Tim Heaney
ABailey, Bos 7 Tim Heaney 6 Derek Van Riper 3 Ray Flowers 2 Fred Zinkie
1 Nicholas Minnix
MAdams, StL 7 (11) Al Melchior 6 Nicholas Minnix 5 Paul Singman 4 Derek Van Riper
4 David Gonos 2 Ray Flowers 0 Tim Heaney
ZMcAllister, Cle 4 (9) Patrick Davitt 3 Derek Van Riper
CCapuano, LAD 2 (13) Fred Zinkie 3 Tim Heaney 1 Zach Steinhorn
BColon, Oak 1 Zach Steinhorn 2 Fred Zinkie 1 Derek Van Riper 1 Paul Singman
BCrawford, SF 1 (2) Tim Heaney 1 Ray Flowers 0 Nicholas Minnix
EStults, SD 1 (2) Ray Flowers 0 Tim Heaney
RTejada, NYM 1 Ray Flowers 1 Tim Heaney 1 Paul Singman 0 Nicholas Minnix
EBedard, Hou 1 Paul Singman 1 Tim Heaney 1 Derek Van Riper
NSchierholtz, ChC 1 (2) Paul Singman 1 Ray Flowers 0 Nicholas Minnix
RIbanez, Sea 1 (9) Patrick Davitt
JDMartinez, Hou 1 (4) Nando DiFino
JQuintana, CWS 1 (5) Nando DiFino
JRussell, ChC 1 (10) Eric Mack 1 Tim Heaney
GRichards, LAA 1 (3) Derek Van Riper 3 David Gonos 0 Tim Heaney
SSmith, Oak 1 (2) Derek Van Riper
NTepesch, Tex 1 (4) David Gonos 0 Eric Mack
JDonaldson, Oak 1 (2) Cory Schwartz 1 Ray Flowers 0 Tim Heaney 0 Nicholas Minnix
MGonzalez, Hou 0 Paul Singman 1 Tim Heaney 1 Ray Flowers
JBurton, Min 0 Patrick Davitt
APollock, Ari 0 Nicholas Minnix
JValdespin, NYM 0 Nicholas Minnix 0 Paul Singman 0 Patrick Davitt

 UNAWARDED CONTINGENCY BIDS

WDavis, KC 4 Tim Heaney 1 Ray Flowers 0 Eric Mack
JDeLaRosa, Col 3 Tim Heaney
ACallaspo, LAA 2 Cory Schwartz
DNava, Bos 2 Al Melchior 0 Paul Singman
AGonzalez, Mil 1 Tim Heaney
MIzturis, Tor 1 Tim Heaney 0 Patrick Davitt 0 Nicholas Minnix 0 Paul Singman
CGillaspie, CWS 1 Ray Flowers
JBay, Sea 1 Ray Flowers
SLombardozzi, Was 1 Ray Flowers
DMastroianni, Min 1 Derek Van Riper
JMayberry, Phi 1 Derek Van Riper
RNolasco, Mia 1 David Gonos 0 Patrick Davitt 0 Zach Steinhorn
EEscobar, Min 0 Tim Heaney
FLiriano, Pit 0 Tim Heaney
FPaulino, KC 0 Tim Heaney
JDanks, CWS 0 Tim Heaney
KSlowey, Mia 0 Tim Heaney
MKawasaki, Tor 0 Tim Heaney
CGetz, KC 0 Patrick Davitt 0 Nicholas Minnix
DODay, Bal 0 Patrick Davitt
SCasilla, SF 0 Patrick Davitt
TSnider, Pit 0 Patrick Davitt
DBarney, ChC 0 Nicholas Minnix
DSolano, Mia 0 Nicholas Minnix
ESogard, Oak 0 Nicholas Minnix
JFrancoeur, KC 0 Nicholas Minnix
MByrd, NYM 0 Nicholas Minnix
MGonzalez, Bal 0 Fred Zinkie

Todd Zola's Guest Commentary

The way this hobby has evolved, the rules regarding transactions along with switching to 5x5 from 4x4 have mitigated the need for risk aversion. A great example of this is how the top two starting pitchers awarded this week are youngsters, one completely unproven in Tony Cingrani and the other, Zach McAllister off to a string start to his career. These hurlers were more highly sought after than more tried and true veterans, Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults and Erik Bedard. The reason is pretty simple - with the present set-up of the rules, the reward outweighs the risk. We know what we'll get from the grizzled vet and there is a ceiling. We don't know what we'll get from Cingrani and while the odds are against a rookie coming in and making a fantasy difference, he at least has the chance to do so. Colon, Stults and Bedard are safe, if not useful - but they're not difference makers. The same dynamic is present with Garrett Richards and Nick Tepesch going for nominal bids while Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, John Danks and Jorge De La Rosa were all contingencies.

Zach Steinhorn's Commentary

Johnny Cueto’s trip to the DL opens the door for top prospect Tony Cingrani to show what he can do at the big league level, and Cingrani’s exceptional minor league numbers, particularly in the strikeout department, was enough of a reason for Fred Zinkie to shell out 11 bucks for him. Despite having pitched only two seasons in the Minors, I can see the Reds, like the Marlins with Jose Fernandez, leaving Cingrani in their rotation for good should he perform well out of the gate.

Runner-up honors this week go to Matt Adams and Andrew Bailey, who will temporarily fill in as the Red Sox closer, at least for the next few days as regular stopper Joel Hanrahan deals with a hamstring injury. While Hanrahan isn’t expected to need a stint on the DL, that could change, and factoring in his overall inconsistency, the $7 Tim Heaney spent on the closer proven Bailey could go a long way.

Deciding to add a little more depth to my starting rotation, as I plan on switching to a 7 SP/2 RP roster alignment for the foreseeable future, mainly to boost my strikeouts, my top target was Capuano. But I’m satisfied with Colon, who has a favorable matchup this week at home vs. the Astros. A quality start is a given, I hope.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

adams

PLAYERS AWARDED

Player Awarded Winning Bid
TCingrani, Cin 20 (31) Tim McLeod 19 Charlie Wiegert 9 Anthony Perri 1 Perry Van Hook
MAdams, StL 9 Brent Hershey 8 Charlie Wiegert 4 Ray Guilfoyle
SSmith, Oak 9 (15)Brent Hershey 8 Tim McLeod 3 Perry Van Hook 1 Charlie Wiegert
BZito, SF 7 (8) Scott Engel 6 Anthony Perri 2 Greg Ambrosius
PPolanco, Mia 6 (9) Tom Kessenich 5 Scott Engel
BNorris, Hou 4 Paul Greco 7 Gene McCaffrey 4 Scott Engel 3 Scott Engel
3 Anthony Perri 2 Ray Guilfoyle
DNava, Bos 4 (9) Paul Greco 3 Tom Kessenich 1 Perry Van Hook
KSuzuki, Was 4 (7) Brent Hershey 3 Anthony Perri
DSolano, Mia 3 Anthony Perri 2 Greg Ambrosius
JGuthrie, KC 3 Scott Engel 2 Greg Ambrosius
JQuintana, CWS 3 Gene McCaffrey 3 Scott Engel 2 Scott Engel 2 Matthew Pouliot
BColon, Oak 2 Perry Van Hook 1 Eno Sarris
JChacin, Col 2 (4) Anthony Perri 1 Eno Sarris 1 Ray Guilfoyle
RDavis, Tor 2 (1) Matthew Pouliot 11 Brent Hershey 1 Charlie Wiegert
RIbanez, Sea 2 Perry Van Hook 1 Charlie Wiegert
APollock, Ari 1 (3) Scott Engel 3 Ray Guilfoyle
ChJohnson, Atl 1 (4) Ray Guilfoyle
EMujica, StL 1 (2) Mike Podhorzer 1 Grey Albright
GBlanco, SF 1 Eno Sarris
JFrancisco, Atl 1 Tom Kessenich
JWestbrook, StL 1 Grey Albright
KSlowey, Mia 1 Eno Sarris
MMaldonado, Mil 1 (2) Greg Ambrosius
PCiriaco, Bos 1 (2) Greg Ambrosius
PKozma, StL 1 Charlie Wiegert 1 Tom Kessenich
RTejada, NYM 1 Ray Guilfoyle 1 Scott Engel 1 Tom Kessenich
SCamp, ChC 1 (5) Anthony Perri 1 Grey Albright

 UNAWARDED CONTINGENCY BID

DDeJesus, ChC 8 Brent Hershey
NTepesch, Tex 4 Anthony Perri 1 Eno Sarris
ACallaspo, LAA 3 Tom Kessenich
JRussell, ChC 2 Scott Engel 1 Grey Albright
BCrawford, SF 2 Ray Guilfoyle 1 Tom Kessenich
RRoberts, TB 2 Greg Ambrosius
WLeBlanc, Mia 2 Anthony Perri
BRyan, Sea 1 Tom Kessenich
CGetz, KC 1 Tom Kessenich
JLannan, Phi 1 Scott Engel
EBedard, Hou 1 Perry Van Hook 1 Grey Albright
EStults, SD 1 Perry Van Hook
JPeralta, TB 1 Grey Albright
SCasilla, SF 1 Grey Albright
YBetancourt, Mil 1 Greg Ambrosius
CGillaspie, CWS 1 Eno Sarris
JDMartinez, Hou 1 Eno Sarris
CCoghlan, Mia 0 Brent Hershey
TSnider, Pit 0 Brent Hershey 0 Matthew Pouliot

Perry Van Hook's Commentary

The greater population of a mixed league versus the NL only muted the enthusiasm or desperation for a minor league pitcher who hasn't even been called up yet, but the success of Jose Fernandez may have aided the run at Tony Cingrani, CIN who supposedly will be called up to replace the DLed Johnny Cueto on Wednesday. In the draft league it was Tim McLeod whose $31 bid was reduced to $20 by Vickrey and awaits his new pitcher's arrival.

I needed a new hurler as well and eschewed a couple of two start pitchers this week (Eric Stults or Erik Bedard) bidding two dollars on Oakland's Bartolo Colon who will face the Astros this week and has been improving each time out. I also needed to replace the faded Collin Cowgill and didn’t get my first choice of Seth Smith but am fine with Raul Ibanez who I got for two dollars. At least Ibanez will have seven games on the schedule for my team while I wait a week to activate Cody Ross. I did have a unique lineup solution this week, being able to move Evan Gattis to C to replace Salvador Perez because the Royals only play five games this week as they have a two game Interleague set at Atlanta.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 15 April 2013 12:24
 
Beware of Early Standings PDF Print E-mail
MASTERSBLOG
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Friday, 12 April 2013 00:00

It seems like every year one of us cautions against looking at early standings in your league(s). Of course, the reason for this warning is that the sample sizes are so small that there is no reality in your league standings.

In LABR’s AL league for instance, I was in second place on one day and after a truly ugly pitching line from one of my starters dropped to next to last the next day. I know it’s hard not to look at the standings – especially if you have a team that is atop the pile – and yeah, we all do it. BUT you must look beyond the standings to find anything of note in the early going. Look instead at the categories – here is one.

STOLEN BASES

Team

Year

Wk

PTS

+/-

Greg Ambrosius

15

3

15.0

0.0

Grey Albright

12

2

14.0

0.0

Tom Kessenich

10

4

13.0

3.0

Scott Engel

9

0

12.0

-1.0

Tim McLeod

8

2

10.5

0.5

Gene McCaffrey

8

1

10.5

-1.5

Mike Podhorzer

7

2

8.5

0.5

Paul Greco

7

1

8.5

-1.5

Brent Hershey

5

2

6.0

0.0

Charlie Wiegert

5

2

6.0

0.0

Ray Guilfoyle

5

2

6.0

0.0

Anthony Perri

3

2

3.0

2.0

Matthew Pouliot

3

1

3.0

0.0

Eno Sarris

3

1

3.0

0.0

Perry Van Hook

2

0

1.0

-2.0

 

The stolen base column from the TOUT Wars Draft League shows me in last place with just two steals in the first two weeks. That does not mean I should trade my only stolen base guy or trade one of my good pitchers for Everth Cabrera. Do you really think that a team with Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier, Kyle Seager, Jose Altuve, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Justin Maxwell, and Austin Jackson is going to be last in stolen bases?

Even with a 13 steal deficit I would sooner bet on winning the category than being in last place, and that is what you need to see beyond the box scores and the standings. Be realistic, but don’t overreact.

It is oh so early in a very long season.

Last Updated on Friday, 12 April 2013 07:40
 
Sidd Finch, Part 1 PDF Print E-mail
MASTERSBLOG
Written by Pasko Varnica   
Wednesday, 10 April 2013 15:21

   I play in a league named after Sidd Finch. Google “Sidd Finch” should you be curious about the history of this fictitious name. Wikipedia has a nice article on it.

   The first draft was held in spring of 2011, the second last year, and the third and last this year coinciding with the beginning of the competition. Let me repeat to make it clear, we drafted two years ahead of time. What is different about Sidd Finch from other fantasy baseball leagues is the pool from which we could pick up players. Only those players that were clearly marked as minor leaguers and foreign players not on a Major League roster were draftable. Baseball America had to show a player as minor leaguer at of the beginning of the season for that player to qualify for the draft.

   We had a plethora of sources to study, including Lawr’s Top 250 Prospects, BaseballHQ’s Minor League Baseball Analyst and several websites, such as www.baseballprospectus.com. In other words, finding study material regarding minor league players was not a problem. On the other hand, scouting foreign players required digging for rumors.

   I will report on the experience throughout the season. Perhaps it is too soon to draw any lasting conclusions but allow me to report on my first impression: predicting pitchers is next to impossible.

   The league has 11 teams. Each team can place five pitchers on the active roster. There is a total of 55 active pitchers. Of these, only eight have produced any substantial number of points up to now. They are Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Yu Darvish, Ryun-Jin Hyu, Chris Sale, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman and Hisashi Iwakuma. No team has more than two of these top eight hurlers on their roster. Those teams who have them are far ahead in the standings.

   The lesson here for those of us who play in keeper leagues and draft prospects is a simple one: picking up minor league pitchers may be a high risk, high reward gamble.

   We know by experience playing in keeper leagues that the profit is returned by no more than 30% of minor league players drafted two or more years before they appear in their first Major League game. That probability of 30% is frustratingly lower when hurlers only are taken into consideration. On top of that, a good number of highly touted pitching prospects need the so-called maturing. It may be counter-productive to activate them too soon, see Brandon Maurer’s struggles this year.

   That’s all nice and reasonable. The problem is that when time comes to pick long-term prospects, some of us often rely on instinct; we find a guy’s name and we just got to have him. Didn’t someone say, “Heart has reasons that reason cannot know”?

 

 

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 April 2013 21:24
 
Keep Calm and Cheer on PDF Print E-mail
MASTERSBLOG
Written by Amanda Scarborough   
Wednesday, 10 April 2013 15:19

I work a day job where I’m up at 4:00 AM to be at work by 4:45 AM. I’m one of those people who sets the alarm as late as possible, crawl unwilling out of bed, throw hair up, brush teeth and head out the door without so much as glancing at a mirror. At this time in the morning, the only thought in my mind is how fast I can get caffeine in me and not at all about how I look. Arriving at work, the first thing I heard this morning was “you look almost as terrible as your Blue Jays.”  This is the last thing I want to hear first thing in the morning. It’s not even the “you look terrible” portion of the statement that gets me, as I’ve gladly sacrificed that for extra z’s. It’s when my home team, the love of my life, my sanity and my Zen gets bashed by someone who probably hasn’t sat through a full nine innings ever in their life. But, at this time in the morning, I have no energy to defend them. Thus, my rant to you.  

I feel like it’s the bandwagon jumpers, or the people who will show up only for the home opener of their city's team, or the people who complain about how long the season is who make such quick and uneducated judgements on teams and players, and it really drives me bonkers.

Here are a few things the irrational baseball fan should be aware of:

-162 games are played by each Major League team. That’s one hundred and sixty two. This one speaks for itself.

-Robinson Cano entered Monday’s game with a .130/.200/.130 slash line. After seven beautiful swings of the bat in the next two games, he raised it to .303/.361/.667. Numbers can change that fast this time of year.

-John Buck has hit four home runs and has banked 14 RBIs over eight games while hitting .393.  This is a 32-year-old, career .237 catcher we are talking about. Hot bats can turn cold just as quickly.

-After six games in 2012, the Giants went 2-4, the same record as the 2013 Blue Jays after six. The Giants went on to win the World Series. Don’t lose faith.

-Last April, the LA Dodgers had the second most wins in the Majors with 16, and failed to make a postseason appearance. Do not get cocky.  

The first month of April, let alone the first week and a half, gives hardly any indication as to what’s to come for the year. Please, do not burn your favorite player's jersey, or jump ship on your home team only to hop back on when they make the playoffs, and definitely DO NOT sell your number one draft pick, of whom may be off to a slow start, for a handful of mediocre players that are sure to hit the waiver wire at some point in the season. Just remain calm and cheer on.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 April 2013 21:33
 
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