Mastersball

Let me preface this by saying that I have liked Alex Rodriguez every year since he began playing baseball. But this year I particularly like to have him on my team. Why is that?

A-Rod is ranked around the 20^th spot on every player projection I have seen so far. That means that one could have him in the second round.  Given the 3B position scarcity, being able to wait for A-Rod ill the second round is a gift from the gods.

The low rating for A-Rod is because he is expected to miss a few weeks of playing time. Considering that the Yankees may be careful with him, he may miss three, or even four weeks.  With that in mind, his personal production projections were lowered making the power hitter a second rounder.

Do not take me wrong. I agree with the projections. But this is how I see it and, you will see, it is pretty simple.

Unless you play in one of those rare leagues where roster changes are not allowed, the moment A-Rod is out one is expected to replace him with a bench corner guy.  From a purely mathematical perspective that means that your team’s overall production from the 3B position is going to be A-Rod’s plus a few weeks of another player’s.  Which is going to be, let’s guess, a HR or two, a half dozen runs and RBIs, maybe even a stolen base? Let’s add these numbers together. There is no other third baseman out there who by himself can beat this combined production.  That plus the opportunity to wait ‘till the second round is why I like A-Rod this year.

It sounds simple. Unless by the time you are ready to pick up your spare third sacker, there is absolutely no one left out there. Given this year’s scarcity, that’s quite possible. In a league where I picked A-Rod, I ended up with Placido Polanco as my bench hot corner man. I am counting on Polanco’s steady high batting average. I drafted him because I had noticed that my assembled team was not projected to do so well in the BA category. Meaning, do also pay attention to where your overall team's projected numbers rest during the draft.

Let’s play a game I like to call “spot the stop-gaps”. This is important information for all fantasy players to know as a stop-gap, by definition, is just a placeholder.

Yes he is a starter and he may indeed get off to a great start, but if his team is out of contention and/or they have a minor leaguer ready to take over – that stop-gap player is going to find himself on the bench or traded – and quite possibly – since he is a stop-gap player – traded to another team where he will serve as a bench player too.

After all a stop-gap is typically a veteran towards the end of their career and/or close to the end of their deal or on a one-year deal. If he were long-term consideration, then he wouldn’t be in a stop-gap situation in the first place!

Projected Opening Day Lineup:

C:  John Buck
1B: Gaby Sanchez
2B: Omar Infante
3B: Wes Helms
SS: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Logan Morrison
CF: Chris Coghlan
RF: Mike Stanton

If you said Wes Helms, give yourself a pat on the back. Helms, 34, has been a part-time player and in fact has only topped 400 at-bats a single-time, back in 2003. Matt Dominguez, who I included in my 2011 Impact Prospects article on third basemen earlier this off-season, will be advancing to Triple-A to start the season. His glove is ready, so the second he shows a glimmer that his bat is, Helms will not be an obstacle at all.

This situation however is not as clear as it seems, because of Chris Coghlan. Coghlan, originally an infielder, has spent a good amount of time at third in the past, and long-term is probably best suited to second base. I can foresee a situation where the Fish want to give Dominguez more time and aren’t satisfied with Helms’ offense; or, Coghlan is in center, and Florida decides to bench Helms, shift Coghlan to third, resulting in an opening in centerfield, most likely for Scott Cousins.

I am also tempted to include Omar Infante on the stop-gap list and he probably fits it. The infielder is playing his option year and with  a combination of speed, contact-hitting, gap power, and positional versatility, Infante becomes extremely attractive to a competitive club. If Dominguez and Cousins are both ready to start, then it would seem logical to slide Coghlan to his natural position and leverage Infante in a deal. So yes, I believe Omar Infante is a stop-gap player too.

So an interesting situation in Florida that will evolve as the season progresses and one NL only players certainly need to watch.

The Wainwright Situation

Changing gears, reports are coming out that Adam Wainwright may require Tommy John Surgery and the pitcher is already seeking a second opinion for his dead wing. I hate to jump the gun, but in my many years of experience writing about this stuff, I would be surprised if Wainrwright did not require going under the knife at this point. And, if he opted for a “rehab” solution, that would only delay the inevitable. So if Wainwright does indeed proceed with the operation, that puts him out until at least next March and most likely another six months as he rediscovers his form. And that means Wainwright is an unreliable target for 2012 too, except for keeper leaguers looking for a bargain.

In the meantime, the Cardinals would open up with a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse, and a question mark that includes the likes of Miguel Batista, Brian Tallet, Kyle McClellan, Lance Lynn, Ian Snell, Adam Ottavino, and P.J. Walters, to name a few.

The player to watch of the bunch is Lance Lynn who started 29 games for Triple-A Memphis last year and who with a good spring could make the jump to the Majors. Actually, this could also end up a stop-gap situation where the Cardinals band-aid the fifth starter’s spot until they are satisfied that Lynn is ready too.