NFL Outlook
NFL Outlook
Marc Melzer takes a look at all of the Team's of the NFL and discusses their 2010 Season Outlooks.

FF Draft Trends This Weekend PDF Print E-mail
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Sunday, September 05, 2010 11:08

Many of you who play fantasy football may have had your draft already or be drafting this weekend, BUT there are still plenty of leagues that will draft in the coming week.

The World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) and Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) are two big national high stakes contests who will be drafting next weekend and of course there are many online leagues drafting next week.

So as I ready my personal cheatsheets to head for Las Vegas to compete in WCOFF, I thought I would share some draft reminders as well as my observations from drafts held this week.

1) KNOW YOUR LEAGUE RULES

Yes I know you have read this several times before, but be honest….are YOU 100% sure you know all the scoring and lineup rules for each league? Do you adjust your cheatsheets for each one or just use the same one and think you will remember small differences at the table?

2) THROW THAT ADP OUT THE WINDOW         

When people sit down to their money league drafts in September, many of the things they tried in early drafts or mock draft disappear. People love to speculate they will start the draft going WR/WR, but when the $$ is on the line they draft a running back.

3) DO NOT BE TIED TO SPECIFIC PLAYERS OR POSITIONS

If you work on a specific draft plan and get it stuck in your head, you may well miss a player you did not expect to fall and draft the player you “thought” you were going to get. Only an early pick in the first round is X or Y.  Take the best player available and you will have a better team.

Okay on to specific player/draft trends:

1) Beware of meteoric “super sleepers” climbing the draft boards. This year’s obsession is Kareem Huggins, RB, Tampa Bay. Sure he has value as the backup for Carnell (Cadillac) Williams, but people are so anxious to say they drafted him before that they are leaving more valuable players on the draft boards. I had him targeted for a late round spec pick on Tuesday and someone drafted him in the 11th round! There were good starters still there then (if you played last year you may remember James Davis of Cleveland as a pre-season darling)

2) Speaking of which, Cleveland’s rookie running back Montario Hardesty is OUT for the year, don’t waste a pick in redraft leagues. Jerome Harrison gets a bump up despite the pre season fumbles and Davis and Peyton Hillis are the ones to watch who might get more playing time (still beware of too many players on bad teams).

3) The Twisted Fate of college teammates who were former first round NFL draft picks:

Stock Down – Matt Leinart, cut by the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday. IF Leinart catches on with another team it will be as a backup (or project) and he has no fantasy relevance this year.

Stock Up – Mike Williams, also from USC who was a first round pick of the Detroit Lions years ago and ate and lazed his way out of the league has re-dedicated himself, dropping 45 pounds and catching everything in sight with the Seahawks (and thus his college coach Pete Carroll) and is now a starter at WR with the Seahawks cutting T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Expect Mike X. Williams (or Big Mike Williams) to creep up draft boards this week (still not as valuable as the Tampa Bay Mike Williams who is now up to round eight)

4) Waiting on drafting your quarterback(s) has long been one of my credos and I practice what I preach, often waiting until after the break at WCOFF drafts before drafting my first quarterback. Unfortunately there are lots of newer players who are making a big mistake in drafting their second (even third) quarterbacks so early in the draft that when some of us who waited while we stocked our rosters with extra RB/WR are looking to draft our starting QB we are getting snaked on some with teams taking their second – this happened to me this week in the 9th round!

5) Roster spots are VALUABLE – like real estate. You want to draft RB/WR with upside who might play their way into your lineup, so you don’t need a second kicker; on short rosters you probably can’t afford to use a DSTBC and should just draft one defense. In twelve team leagues like WCOFF if I had a STUD quarterback with a later bye week I wouldn’t waste one of those precious roster spots on a backup you are not going to play until week 8 or 9 or 10. Think about it – if you draft Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, when are YOU going to play your second quarterback? Correct Week 10, so don’t waste that spot at the draft for a bye week fill-in.

Good Luck – and remember, draft well but HAVE FUN.

 
Packers 2010 Outlook PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Melzer   
Sunday, August 22, 2010 23:28

Green Bay Packers

Major Changes

Coaching:  The Packers made big changes in defensive coaches in 2009 and remain stable for 2010.  The Packers led the NFL in rushing defense and interceptions in 2009.

Offense: No significant changes.

Defense: No significant changes.

Position Battles

WR: Jordy Nelson vs. James Jones – The battle for the valuable #3 receiver slot in the passing-oriented Packers offense is on.  Both players figure to be productive in 2010, especially if age catches up to Donald Driver.  Both Nelson and Jones are both good late round fantasy options in 2010, but I am banking on Nelson as the higher ceiling player for the Packers.

Rookie to Watch

The Packers are set at all the skill positions, and did not draft a skill position player until they selected tight end Andrew Quarless in the fifth round.  He will not take plays away from Jermichael Finley.

Breakout Potential

The tight end group in the NFL continues to get better and better, with Finley leading the next wave of great fantasy tight ends.  Finley has Antonio Gates-like physical skills and he plays on the perfect team to take full advantage of those tools.  The only fantasy down-side for Finley is that he will not be a draft-day bargain, likely going right after Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates, in the same group with Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, and Brent Celek.

Red Flag

The caution flag is out on Ryan Grant.  Grant’s yardage numbers are just about the same for the past two seasons, but in 2010 he scored 11 touchdowns and ranked as the 10th best running back and in 2009 he scored only six touchdowns and ranked as the 23rd best running back.  Grant still provides good value on draft day as he is not considered an elite back, but the odds of him producing better than 2010 are slim due to limited pass receiving numbers.  A regression to 2009 numbers have to be considered.

Last Updated on Saturday, August 21, 2010 23:30
 
Redskins 2010 Outlook PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Melzer   
Saturday, August 21, 2010 23:26

Washington Redskins

Major Changes

Coaching:  Everything changes again for the Redskins.  Mike Shanahan comes in as Head Coach and brings just about a complete new staff to support him.  Son Kyle comes over from Houston to run the offense.

Offense: Donovan McNabb replaces Jason Campbell at starting quarterback.  Former Florida Gator Rex Grossman enters at backup quarterback.  Veteran running backs Willie Parker and Larry Johnson form an odd trio at running back with Clinton Portis still there.  Former fantasy phenom running back Ryan Torain was a pet project of Mike Shanahan in Denver in 2008, but played in only one game before getting injured again.  Offensive tackle Jammal Brown comes over from the Saints.  Veteran wide receivers Bobby Wade and Joey Galloway try to add zip to the offense.

Defense: Defensive ends Adam Carriker and Vonnie Holliday add depth on the defensive line.  Nine-year veteran Phillip Buchanon adds depth to the secondary.

Position Battles

WR: Devin Thomas vs. Malcolm Kelly vs. Roydell Williams vs. Joey Galloway vs. Anthony Armstrong vs. Mike Furrey vs. Bobby Wade – Yes, the Redskins have a mess filling their 2nd and 3rd wide receiver slots opposite Santana Moss.  These spots appear to have all the makings of a musical chairs game all season.  Certainly Thomas and Kelly have the most potential, but their potential has to translate to production soon.

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Willie Parker vs. Larry Johnson – Portis is getting up there in age, but he is the best of this group and offers some serious fantasy value.  Portis is slipping under the radar right now, but he can provide a boom after ranking 10th and 3rd in 2008 and 2007.

Rookie to Watch

The Redskins traded away most of their draft choices after the first round, leaving the cupboard bare of any potential rookie fantasy help.

Breakout Potential

Ryan Torain, if healthy (big if), can be the fantasy guy that had players thinking they hit the big time in 2008 when Torain finally had a chance.  We don’t how healthy he is, or how he can pass the Portis-Parker-Johnson veteran trio, but we do know that Shanahan will give him every chance to succeed.

Red Flag

Donovan McNabb has played a full 16 game season only twice in the past eight seasons.  The Redskins lack the weapons that the Eagles have had over the past several seasons.  We suggest a pass on McNabb for 2010.

Last Updated on Saturday, August 21, 2010 23:29
 
Eagles 2010 Outlook PDF Print E-mail
Written by Lori Rubinson   
Monday, August 16, 2010 00:00

Major Changes

Coaching: Head coach Andy Reid keeps his coaching staff intact for another run at the super bowl.

Offense: Donovan McNabb is out at quarterback and Kevin Kolb is in.  Brian Westbrook is out at running back.  Mike Bell and J.J. Arrington join at running back to back-up LeSean McCoy.  Hank Baskett and Kelley Washington add depth at wide receiver.

Defense: The Eagles used nine 2010 draft choices to add depth on defense.  First round pick Brandon Graham and second round pick Nate Allen are expected to see extended time at defensive end and free safety right out of the box.  Linebacker Earnie Simms comes over from Detroit.  Defensive End Daryl Tapp was acquired from Seattle.  Cornerback Marlin Jackson was signed as a free agent from Indianapolis.

Position Battles

WR: Jason Avant vs. Riley Cooper vs. Hank Baskett vs. Kelley Washington – This is the battle for 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th wide receiver.  Avant has a strong edge for the 3rd wide receiver, after catching 23, 32, and 41 passes over the past three seasons.  Cooper is the player to watch out of this group.

Rookie to Watch

Fifth round draft choice Riley Cooper gave up a promising professional baseball career to play in the NFL.  Cooper was the Florida Gators best wide out this past season and had a tremendous knack for making plays.  He can quickly move ahead of Baskett and Washington to play in 3-wide sets in rotation with Jason Avant.

Breakout Potential

LeSean McCoy was kept under wraps as a rookie running back in 2009, averaging less than ten carries per game.  Now with Westbrook completely out of the picture, the job is all McCoy’s.  The only thing that could keep his numbers down a little is the presence of Mike Bell stealing goal line touchdowns.

Red Flag

Starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are both on the small side and have already suffered injuries early in training camp.  I do like both of them as I believe that the Eagles offense will be wide open in 2010 under new quarterback Kevin Kolb, but I am tempering my enthusiasm for Jackson and Maclin due to the injury factor.

 
Cowboys 2010 Outlook PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Melzer   
Sunday, August 15, 2010 00:00
Major Changes


Coaching:
The Cowboys had no coaching changes in the off-season.  But it would be safe to say that with the talent amassed by the Cowboys and the super-high expectations, a failure to reach the playoffs will result in a new coaching staff for 2011.

Offense: The Cowboys believe they have the talent to compete for a Super Bowl spot, so there was very little turnover of significant personnel entering 2010.   Tackle Alex Barron was acquired from the Rams via trade.

Defense: Free safety Ken Hamlin left for Baltimore.

Position Battles

RB: Felix Jones vs. Marion Barber vs. Tashard Choice – Jump on the 30 carries for 217 yards that Jones garnered in two 2009 playoff games and his 5.9 yard average in the regular season.  He is the game breaker for fantasy teams.  Barber saw the bulk of the 2009 regular season carries and Choice saw half of his 64 carries in two early season games.  Projection for 2010 – as long as all three are on the roster, Jones will see the bulk of the yardage and Barber will scarf the short yardage touchdowns.

WR: Roy Williams vs. Dez Bryant – After this season, it will be Williams that will be carrying Bryant’s equipment around practice.  The Cowboys realized what the Lions already knew about Williams – he is just not that good.  If it were not for the early training camp injury to Bryant he would likely have beat out Williams to start the season.

Rookie to Watch

Dez Bryant – See above

Breakout Potential

Felix Jones – See above

Red Flag

Marion Barber – He saw his time cut significantly in the playoffs.  I smell a 3rd or 4th round fantasy draft choice that leaves a trail of disappointment.

Last Updated on Saturday, August 14, 2010 09:53
 
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