Mastersball, fantasy baseball, scouting, analysis, projections

And the winner of the 2010 American League Cy Young award is: C.J. Wilson.

Ummmm… What?? The lefty reliever who was an integral part of the Rangers’ bullpen last season? The second-in-line closer who picked up 14 saves last year? That guy with the awesome mustache?

Yeah, that’s him. And he’s turned into an absolute machine as a starting pitcher.

If I presented two pitchers to you, and one was named Cliff Lee, which would you expect to be Lee?

Post All-Star break numbers:

Pitcher No. 1: 2-4, 4.52 ERA, 70 Ks in 71.2 IP

Pitcher No. 2: 7-0, 1.99 ERA, 58 Ks in 58.2 IP

Which one would you expect to be Lee? Probably Pitcher No. 2. But actually, that’s C.J. Wilson. The dominant lefty who has spent the majority of his career as a relief pitcher, and this year he’s turned into a legitimate Cy Young candidate.

We had a wonderful debate about the AL Cy Young on Tuesday night’s Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show. Most of my colleagues thought that C.C. Sabathia deserved the award, since his 18-5 record appeared to be the best in the AL. But strikingly, should Wilson win four or five more games in the final month of the season, he could become the favorite.

He’s fanned more batters per innings than the majority of the candidates, aside from King Felix and Jered Weaver. He’s got a lower ERA than all but three pitchers in the AL and the lowest batting-average-against of anyone in the league.

And should Wilson continue his surprising success for the rest of 2010, he may become the leading candidate.

Who woulda thunk it? Not me, that’s for sure.

I was too focused on other Rangers’ pitchers before the season; like Rich Harden (recently demoted to the bullpen) and Frank Francisco, who hasn’t had fantasy relevance since April. And Ben Sheets, who, well, is Ben Sheets.

But Harden has continued to prove that he’s my biggest fantasy bust over the past five seasons. And Francisco lost his job faster than you can say, “Dirty Feliz,” a few times fast.

Though Wilson will certainly need a solid last month to earn the title, he's been hot enough in the second half where it has become a real possibility.

And as our friend Greg Marta from FantasyPros911.com suggested on the Roundtable Show, Trevor Cahill could become a legitimate candidate for next year.

So far this season, Cahill is second in the league in batting average against (only to Wilson), third in ERA (with a remarkable 2.82 mark), with a 14-6 record on the A’s. Though because he’s only pitched 159 innings this season, many voters are discounting his contributions for this season. And while winning 14 games on the Oakland ballclub isn’t an easy task, Cahill is the offspring of the great Billy Beane, who has been producing Cy Young winners for years.

The strikeout numbers will surely need to increase, but Cahill could become close to an elite pitcher in 2011.

(I respect the argument, but give me Brett Anderson any day of the week…)

Or, C.J. Wilson.

With just over a month left in the fantasy baseball season, my obsession with draft preparation is already beginning to take over in anticipation for next year. Which is weird because I’m in so many leagues where my teams are fighting for a title right now, but at this point in the year I can’t help but think about where people are going to be drafted next year and how I’ll be able to build my squads.

So while I was bored and scrolling through stats the other night (who doesn’t scroll through stats when they’re bored? OK, maybe I’m a loser…), I had a little fun putting together a mock pitching staff for 2011. The staff is a six-man rotation, just because I couldn’t narrow the list down to five, of American League pitchers. They’re all going to either have a break out year next year or follow up their breakout from this year with another, increasingly stellar season.

I honestly believe that any one of these guys can be a top-10 or even top-5 starter in the AL next year. They possess the tools and skill set to accomplish that, and they’ve shown enough to me to warrant their positioning on my All-2011 Breakout Rotation.

Staff Ace: Brett Anderson, LHP, OAK , 22 years old:

Anderson had a remarkable first season in the majors in 2009. At just 21 years old, there were questions as to whether or not he was ready, but Anderson wasted no time in quieting the skeptics. After a solid first half, he really found his groove, striking out 86 guys in 88 innings after the All-Star break.

He’s been battling injuries this season though, including one in his pitching elbow, but he’s been extremely effective when on the mound. With a lot of these young pitchers, you can usually expect improvement from year to year as they grow and strengthen, not just physically, but mentally as well.

The most impressive thing about Anderson is that he’s had a solid 2010 despite having trouble throwing his slider, which is his best pitch. The elbow injury has made it difficult for him to execute, and while he hasn’t had a problem walking many batters, his command within the strike zone has struggled. When Anderson comes back healthy for Spring Training in 2011, he’s a guy who could really make the jump to the next level. Along side Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill, the A’s could have another dominating trio of starters that we haven’t seen since Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito.

2011 Bold Prediction: 14-7, 203 IP, 185 Ks, 2.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

No. 2: Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TB, 23 years old:

It took forever, but Hellickson finally earned his shot with the Rays in early August and made the most of it. He dazzled in 26.1 innings, fanning 25 batters and walking just four while holding opponents to a .172 batting average.

The scouts love him. The minor league numbers are ridiculous. In two seasons at Triple-A, Hellickson has struck out 193 guys in 175 innings, walked just 50, and went 18-4 with a 2.47 ERA.

It’s too bad he’s on such a good team, or we’d get to see him pitch every fifth day the rest of the season. But instead we’ll see him work out of the bullpen for the remainder of the year, and I hope it doesn’t mess with his approach. Either way, Hellickson is primed to become a serious stud in the major leagues for many years to come.

2011 Bold Prediction: 13-4, 170 IP, 163 Ks, 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

No. 3: Ricky Romero, LHP, TOR, 25 years old:

I was laughed at when I said I’d rather have Romero than Francisco Liriano in the beginning of the season, but the young lefty has done everything he could to compete. Often compared to Johan Santana, Romero’s sweeping curve and fantastic changing of speeds has led him to become an incredible pitcher in a very difficult division.

He made drastic improvements in 2010 too, cutting back his walks, increasing his strikeouts, giving up less hits, and lowering his home run totals. The biggest difference is that he’s been using his incredible changeup much more frequently, throwing it 28 percent of the time in 2010 compared to just 9 percent in 2009. There’s no telling where Romero could go if he continues to improve, and watching him pitch is truly a pleasure.

2011 Bold Prediction: 13-8, 193 IP, 168 Ks, 3.28 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

No. 4: Edwin Jackson, RHP, CWS, 26 years old:

OK, so this one is a bit of a gamble, but Jackson definitely has the skill set to pull it off. There’s something funky about this kid, and I am definitely intrigued. He was fantastic with Detroit in 2009, stunk it up big time with Arizona in the beginning of 2010, and has dominated in his first few starts with the White Sox. Some players just need the right atmosphere, and Chicago might be the perfect place for Jackson.

It’s also kind of weird how he’s had even more success against American League opponents, since it’s usually the other way around. And when GM Kenny Williams dealt super-prospect Dan Hudson to Arizona to bring over Jackson, I was sold.

He’s enjoyed the highest ground ball rate of his career this season while being on the wrong side of the luck meter. And new pitching coach Don Cooper said he found a flaw in Jackson’s mechanics, allowing him to stand taller on the mound and finish his pitches. While the White Sox continue to work with him, forcing the idea of pounding the strike zone and getting ahead in the count, Jackson has the potential to become a big-time starting pitcher.

2011 Bold Prediction: 15-6, 216 IP, 172 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

No. 5: Gio Gonzalez, LHP, OAK, 24 years old:

Another product of Kenny Williams before finding a home in Oakland, Gonzalez has been grooming in the A’s farm system for a few years now. But in his first full season in the starting rotation, he’s blossomed, going 11-8 with a 3.24 ERA and 134 Ks in 161 IP.

The problem though is that he’s struggled with his control for the majority of his career, and while he did decrease his walk rate this year, he’s also been on the lucky side of BABIP and left-on-base-percentage. He’s been inducing way more ground balls than any years past though and has the lowest home run-per-fly ball percentage of his career. You can either interpret this is as luck, or simply that Gonzalez has made adjustments and finally learned how to pitch at the big-league level.

I think it’s been a little bit of both. But if he can continue to improve and keep the ball down, there’s no doubt that he has the stuff to become a solid fantasy contributor.

2011 Bold Prediction: 12-8, 184 IP, 152 Ks, 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

No. 6: Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL, 23 years old:

Matusz has shown us flashes of a very good starting pitcher this season, but hasn’t been able to put it all together just quite yet. He’s still very raw though, and with just one impressive minor league season under his belt, he’s got plenty of learning to do.

He did exhibit a tremendous K/BB rate in the minors, and even in his struggles this season he’s been able to strikeout batters at a solid rate. His xFIP (a tool to judge ERA independent of fielding) for 2010 is 4.24, as he’s been unlucky on balls in play. With continued growth and development Matusz could become a front-line starter by 2012, but should still produce some strong numbers in 2011.

2011 Bold Prediction: 11-9, 181 IP, 149 Ks, 4.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

Catch Jason on the No. 1  baseball show on BlogTalkRadio, the Fantasy Baseball Rountable Show every Tuesday at 10:30 p.m. ET, or download on iTunes at any time.

Time is winding down in the baseball regular season (go ahead and shed a tear, I know I have), and in more leagues than not I find myself in serious need of home runs and RBIs. I actually found a few guys who were available in most of the leagues I play in.

Ryan Raburn has been a monster since he began playing every day for the Tigers. He hit his fourth homer in five games on Monday night, but before that he had hit just one in almost a month and a half. He strikes out too much to hit with consistency, but I don’t really care about batting average right now. He’s a guy who has never seemed to reach his potential, but as a super-utility man, he’s had a knack for hitting them out of the park.

From Yahoo!: "He hit 16 last year," manager Jim Leyland said, "so the power's there. He's in a good groove right now, getting huge hits for us."

Russell Branyan quietly hit his 16^th homer of the year on Monday night. It was the second home run in three games for Branyan, who has 10 in 52 games with the Mariners. It seems like he either goes 1-for-4 with a homer or goes hitless. I think Raburn is a more productive player, at least right now, but we’ve seen Branyan get hot before and his ability to hit 30 in a season makes him an attractive option.

Or you can add Travis Hafner, who made a nice return to the Indians over the weekend with a grand slam. He’s been productive while healthy this season and will finally add a solid bat in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup. He’s been tough to gauge though, and since his nagging shoulder injury won’t go away he doesn’t hit with a whole lot of consistency. One of these days I like to think that we’ll see the Hafner of old return, but instead it may just be the Older Travis Hafner.

Carlos Delgado will miss the rest of this week after he tweaked his lower back and hip. I was actually excited when the Red Sox signed him, but I think there was a reason why no other team would. Delgado is 3-for-13 with six strikeouts and no extra base hits during his time with the Triple-A Pawtucket. He has a chance to make an impact later this season if he can prove that he’s healthy, but the hip injury doesn’t appear to be going away. If he doesn’t start hitting with authority over the next couple weeks, he’ll likely be released, as the last thing the Red Sox need is another first baseman with hip problems.

Dustin Pedroia is finally back from his foot injury to give the Red Sox some form of consistency. If he can provide a much-needed spark at the top of the lineup, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre could start to see more RBI opportunities.

Not like Beltre needs a boost anyways. I highly doubt he’s going to want to keep his $5 million player option to stay with the Sox after the monster year he’s had. But you have to wonder with some of these older players, does he risk going somewhere else and losing his production again? Not that moving to a new team will automatically make him worse, but Jason Bay couldn’t hit anywhere like he did in Fenway Park, and the pull-hitting Beltre has turned in a monster year after a terrible 2009. The Red Sox will likely be a contender again in 2011, so you have to wonder if the Sox try to work a new deal or if he takes the deal in place.

Derek Holland is getting the call to start Wednesday’s game for the Rangers, and with Rich Harden on the DL yet again, Holland could find himself a spot for the rest of the season. He’s fanned 46 guys in 56.2 innings at Triple-A this season with a 1.91 ERA. I’ve always been a big fan of Holland’s stuff, and if he’s healthy (he was on the DL with shoulder inflammation and a knee injury), he could prove to be a solid starter.

How long is Alfredo Simon going to stink it up before the dreaded Orioles stop using him in late-game situations? He’s allowed a run in eight of his last 12 games, including his past four consecutive appearances, and his second-half ERA is 7.36. Buck Showalter said other people will start to get save opportunities, but we haven’t seen it happen yet (not that there have been many chances to give). Mike Gonzalez has been as solid as they come of late and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the ninth inning the next time the O’s have a lead.

I really never thought I’d say this, but owning New York Yankees on my fantasy team has really gotten frustrating. You have to check the pitching matchups every day just to make sure your guy is going to play, much less perform well.

The Curtis Granderson-every-day-outfielder experiment needs to end, which was signaled by the trade for Austin Kearns. Lance Berkman clearly can’t hit from the right side of the plate, and the Yankees are determined to not let him. Alex Rodriguez is stroking .200 against lefties with 3 HR this season. Brett Gardner is hitting .243 against them, but at least he has eight steals.

It’s getting ridiculous. Before we delve into individual performance, just take a look at these splits:

As a fantasy owner of each of these guys in one league or another, it has become crucial for me to have a replacement at-the-ready whenever a lefty is due to take the hill. In any leagues where daily lineups are set, Granderson, ARod, and Berkman are sitting against lefties. They have to. Their stats are too awful and too predictable to toss them out there against lefthanded pitching. You can make a case to leave ARod in there if you have limited alternatives, but Grandy and Berkman are a must-sit.

And I can’t believe it took Joe Girardi and the Yankees this long to figure out that Granderson is nothing more than a $5.5 million platoon player.

But think about it this way; if one of the best teams in Major League Baseball feels like it only hurts their chances of winning to have Granderson and Berkman in the lineup against lefties, we fantasy owners should probably feel the same way.

Here’s my proposal, especially in deeper leagues where you may be thinking, “But Jason, the replacement player I’d find is no better.” You’re probably wrong. You can actually use the same replacement player Girardi is using and you’d be a lot better off.

Marcus Thames has just 64 at bats against lefties this season, since the Yanks have tried an assortment of scrubs at DH this season, but he’s stroking .344. Kearns is only hitting .259 with 10 RBI in 108 at bats against lefthanders this year, but in his career he’s had a solid bat off them, and it’s still much better than Granderson or Berkman.

I’ve actually seen Berkman get dropped in a few 12-team mixed leagues I play in. I think the owners decided they didn’t want a platoon player on their squad. But I actually disagree completely. I’d much rather have someone who I can throw out there with confidence that he is going to do a good job. I’ll only start him 4-5 times a week, but when I do, I know he’s going to perform well.

Berkman’s numbers overall look awful this season, but against righties, they’ve been quite good. In 262 at bats he’s hit .252, gotten on base at a .380 clip, knocked out 12 homers and drove in 47 runs. That’s a solid player. Granderson hasn’t been quite as good, but he’s still been productive.

Of course, you’ll see either of them getting pinch hit for once a lefty reliever comes on late in the game, but you can still get 3-4 at bats out of them. Just keep a replacement player on your bench who plays every day, or at least grab Thames or Kearns to slide in when a lefthander is on the hill.

You’ll be a lot better off. And a lot less frustrated watching Granderson awkwardly swing six inches over a slider in the dirt.

After all the fantasy owners sorted through the trades and sent their FAAB bids in last week, most of the good players have been taken. But there are still some leftovers to be found who could provide plenty of value.

I was hoping to pick up some reinforcements for my AL-only team; a few guys who could add some fire power at a much needed time when injuries and cold streaks have left my roster thin.

But I didn’t get what I was hoping for. Sure, I grabbed a couple guys who could help, but amidst all the trading going on, I was outbid on most of the key players

I scrolled the free agent pool after the transactions went through and was somewhat happy with what I saw.

It’s like looking in the fridge to find a few different containers full of leftovers. It’s no freshly grilled steak, but I’ll take it.

Gregor Blanco came over to the Royals in the deal that sent Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth to Atlanta. The light-hitting Blanco was nothing more than an extra outfielder with the Braves, but in Kansas City he’ll be a starter. He’s started in each game with the new team and even stole a base on Tuesday night.

Blanco won’t do a whole lot for your team, but he does have some speed (stole nine in 44 Triple-A games this season) and can hit for a decent enough average.

With Torii Hunter playing a position other than center field for the first time since 1999, the Angels have given the veteran’s spot to 23-year-old Peter Bourjos. Bourjos was hitting .314 with 13 homers, 52 RBIs, and 27 stolen bases at Triple-A, and manager Mike Scioscia said he’ll be the new every-day center fielder.

“Peter’s going to play center field. … You’re not going to see Torii flip-flopping back and forth on a given day,” Scioscia said. “This guy can run. He can do some things, I think, to bring some energy to our club.”

I’ll be bidding the most on Bourjos this week, as he could be similar to Julio Borbon of last season, providing a much-needed boost in the SB category down the stretch.

After pummeling at Triple-A Durham in 98 games this season, first baseman Dan Johnson finally got called up to the Rays. He smashed 30 homers and 95 RBI for the Bulls, hitting over .300. The left-handed hitting Johnson will get a chance to play some with Carlos Pena on the fritz with a sore foot, and should Pena miss extended time, Johnson could become quite valuable on a high-scoring team.

Even though Jorge Cantu joined the Rangers in a deal from Florida this week, Mitch Moreland is still a first baseman worth owning. The left-handed hitting Moreland has been getting some starts at first for Texas, and with Chris Davis back in the minors where he apparently belongs, Moreland should continue to get some at bats.

From Mastersball’s own Jason Grey, now of ESPN of course, “Even with the Rangers' acquisition of Jorge Cantu, it appears for now that the lefty-hitting Moreland is going to get plenty of playing time against right-handed pitchers in a platoon arrangement.” Click here for the full article (insiders only).

After the scary collision at home plate that sent Indians catcher Carlos Santana to the DL, Lou Marson will take over some of the catching duties, but it’s Chris Gimenez who intrigues me most. He hit .276 with 9 HR in Triple-A this season, but was viewed as a much better hitting prospect than Marson coming up in the minors. They’ll likely share the duties while Santana is out.

The Orioles acquired starting pitcher Rick Vanden Hurk from the Marlins for reliever Will Ohman. The 25-year-old Vanden Hurk had 86 strikeouts in 98 innings at Triple-A for Florida, and impressed in his first start with his new Triple-A club (7 innings, 1 ER, 4 K, 4 H). The Dutchman has always had a strong strikeout rate but was never able to put it together for the Marlins, though he’ll likely get a chance in Baltimore’s rotation at some point this year

In Detroit, Jeff Frazier and Will Rhymes have been in the lineup as injuries have haunted the Tigers. Brown hit for some power in the minors and will serve as a part time DH, but Rhymes is the more intriguing player here. He was a base-stealing machine at Triple-A and he’s been playing every day in Detroit. If you’re looking for some speed, Rhymes has it.

In Oakland, Matt Watson and Matt Carson have been getting some playing time in the outfield. They had similar stats in the minors, but the lefty-hitting Watson has seen a few more at bats. Neither will help your team much, but they’re good hole-fillers if you’ve got some injuries.

So don’t feel terrible if you missed out on most of the players who benefited from trades in last week’s FAAB period. This is the time of year when new opportunities are always coming up, and many minor leaguers are getting a chance to play.

There will surely be more to pick from in the upcoming weeks, but remember that even a guy like Will Rhymes can be the difference between you winning and losing an extra point in a category down the stretch, and perhaps a league title.

Oh Kansas City Royals, how you continue to ensure your spot as one of the league’s worst teams in baseball. And you’ve done it again.

Your best players have been stuck in the minors. You trade them away once they become effective. You get little-to-nothing in return. And your general manager, Dayton Moore, never fails to stifle fans with his boneheaded decisions.

And to believe this guy makes millions of dollars per year…

Alex Gordon was rushed to the major leagues. He didn’t have a terrible first year, hitting .247 with 15 home runs. His second season was even better, as he got on base at a .351 clip and increased his home run rate. But after a short period of struggles, he’s been left for dead in Triple-A, where he does nothing but rake while his growth is stunted in the midst of minor league pedestrians.

Now he’s up with the club again, after a successful stint in Omaha, and he won’t even play every day. Instead, Gordon will become another name in the rotation of Royals outfielders. He might play four to five times a week, but Wilson Betemit has become the new starting third basemen.

Solid.

That’s because Moore just traded away one of his best, most consistent hitters, Alberto Callaspo. He has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his short five-year career in the majors, owning a lifetime .282 batting average. He can put the ball in play, work the count, be used for situational hitting, play multiple positions, hit with some power, and run with some speed.

But Moore decided it would be best to dish him to the Angels, and in return the Royals would pick up a pair of pitchers who each own an ERA close to 5.00 this year… in the minors. Sean O’Sullivan was lit up at the big league level last season, and hasn’t done any better at Triple-A this year. While the second piece of the puzzle, Will Smith, has posted a 5.53 ERA in 19 starts across three levels of the minors in 2010.

Good move, Royals.

Meanwhile, Kila Ka’aihue has been doing nothing but hitting in Omaha for the past couple of seasons, belting 23 homers with a .318 batting average in 308 at bats there this year. He could arguably instantly become the Royals’ second best hitter, but he’s still in the minors.

And Moore’s biggest two pieces of trade bait this year, Gil Meche and David DeJesus were very recently pronounced out for the season. Way to go, Royals.

It’s become a big mess, and despite high draft picks every year, this poor franchise has left its fans nothing to hope for. Nothing to even look at in the distance, to provide some ray of hope on a team that has become the joke of Major League Baseball over the past decade.

As I sit on the couch and root for the other New York team, a team that has become the laughing stock of “big-spending” franchises, a team that continues to find ways to fall out of contention, a team that cracks under pressure, I can’t help but feel thankful.

At least I’m not a Royals fan.

Two months ago today the Tampa Bay Rays had a healthy lead in the AL East. They sat at 30-12, good for a .714 winning percentage. Their talented squad dominated on the mound, in the field, and at the plate.

They appeared to be the team every other should try to follow. Intelligent off-season moves (minus the Pat Burrell signing), strong development of a plethora of talented prospects, good trades when necessary, and a focus on run prevention. As we all watched them perform at the highest level, I couldn’t help but think to myself that I should have seen this coming. The Rays weren’t the surprise of 2010. Instead they were the team that deserved to be in first place. The team that we should have seen coming.

But over the past two months, that all has changed. Tampa has gone 27-25 since May 21, becoming quite a mediocre team. Its staff aces have begun to crumble. The big bats haven’t been so big. And it appears that the once crowned “Best Team in Baseball” has returned to its perfectly respectable position as just an above average team.

Looking further reveals an even more unpleasant idea, that most of the Rays fantasy studs could be done contributing at a high level.

Let’s first take a look at their pitching staff:

Matt Garza: Perhaps one of the most interesting starters on the staff, Garza had people singing the Cy Young tune after an incredible April (35 IP, 4-1, 34 K, 2 HR allowed, 2.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). And since then, it’s been all down hill. From May through today, Garza’s K/9 plummeted to less than 6, his ERA sky-rocketed with his WHIP, and he’s allowed a whopping 16 home runs in less than three months. The bad news for Garza owners is that there isn’t much to indicate any of this is going to change. He hasn’t been unlucky in any statistical metric aside from HR/FB, and he hasn’t shown enough dominance in the past for us to expect him to “return to form.” This could be where he sits for the rest of the season.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

David Price: I included Price in my second half predictions column last week under the Busts category, and he then went on to give up seven runs in five innings. From last week:

His crazy 80.2% strand rate indicates he’s been quite lucky, and an xFIP (a stat used to judge ERA independent of fielding) of 3.95 ranks him outside of the top starters in the league. Command has always been his issue; when he can locate his slider and fastball, he’s been filthy. But his walk rate has been just as bad as it was last year, and I’m slightly concerned that he rarely uses his slider anymore (just 6.7% of the time, as opposed to 30.2% when he first entered the league).  

Add to it that he’s been on the fortunate side of the long ball (much lower HR/FB rates than his career averages) and that it’s his first season where he’ll increase his innings totals beyond his career high, and there are definitely some concerns. I’d seriously consider selling him before there doesn’t become much left to sell.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Worse.

Wade Davis: While Davis has been better lately, his inconsistent command and inability to use pitches other than his fastball has caused him some trouble. As with the rest of the staff, he’s struggled allowing too many home runs, and many wonder when Jeremy Hellickson will arrive to take his place.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

James Shields: It’s tough to be successful when you’re giving up more than a homer per game, and that’s what Shields has been doing. The only starter on the staff who has actually suffered from bad luck, if he can keep the ball in the park, he should be able to improve as the season goes on.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Improve.

Jeff Niemann: And there’s the opposite side of the coin, where Niemann has benefited from a .246 batting average against on balls in play and an insanely high strand rate of 84.5%. He’s been a solid starter for the Rays this year, no doubt, but his June/July numbers are more like the type of pitcher that he’s shown to be, and while he can still be successful, his ERA and WHIP will likely start to digress.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Worse.

And then the lineup…

C- John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach: Jaso has been an on-base machine, but he’s seen his batting average plummet and he doesn’t have much power, making him a somewhat useless fantasy catcher. Shoppach has been just dreadful (.194, 1 HR), and we could see some improvement there, but neither of these guys are good options at the catcher position.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

1B- Carlos Pena: Pena has been very Pena-like. Lots of strikeouts, terrible batting average, lots of homers.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

2B- Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac: While Rodriguez has shown flashes of brilliance, he strikes out far too often. He has 66 Ks to just seven walks in 224 at bats this season, and while he adds a little bit of pop, it’s tough to be successful when you can’t put the ball in play. Brignac hasn’t been much better, and while he can hit for a slightly better average, neither of these guys will contribute enough to be fantasy-relevant. And with the Rays searching for a better corner outfield option (Jayson Werth, Corey Hart), it’s likely that Ben Zobrist will move back to second base sending both these guys to the bench.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Worse.

SS- Jason Bartlett: Another bust candidate from last week’s column, Bartlett just hasn’t been running at all this season. He stole 30 times last year, but nagging injuries (hamstring) have left him a cripple. His batting average may improve, but he’s not a strong hitter and without his speed there isn’t much to be excited about.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

3B- Evan Longoria: He’s hit for a better average this season and less power, but a generous BABIP and unlucky HR/FB rate indicates both of them should head back to normal.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

LF- Carl Crawford: Crawford has been sizzling hot this season, exhibiting the power everyone thought he had to couple with his blazing speed. But an errant pick off throw struck him directly in the gonads, and he’ll need some rest after suffering from testicular contusions (it’s hard to even read that without wincing... ouch). Regardless, he’s been phenomenal this year and there’s nothing that indicates he won’t continue to be.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

CF- BJ Upton: Oh man. If I were a Rays fan I’d be hoping that Upton was dealt. He doesn’t hustle and creates chaos in the dugout, doesn’t do a great job of getting on base, hits for a low average, and appears to be swinging for the fences every time he’s at the plate. The speed is there, and that’s where he’ll help, but that’s about it, and the once vibrant hopes of BJ Upton tearing apart the fantasy baseball scene appear to be fading.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Same.

RF- Ben Zobrist: OK, so maybe we were wrong to think Zobrist was going to hit 25 homers again, but he’s still an on-base machine who has great speed. The lack of power hinders his fantasy value, but I think OBP is a strong indication of hitter quality, and he has a great approach at the plate. Watching him is truly enjoyable, and I think some of that power will start to come back, along with a slight increase in batting average.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Improve.

Other- Matt Joyce: Am I the only one who thinks he still deserves playing time? I’d rather have him in the lineup (against righthanders) in RF, pushing Zobrist to 2B, rather than either of the second sackers the Rays have been using. He’s walked 15 times to just nine strikeouts, and while he’s only hitting .220, if he was given more at bats he could prove himself. Too bad there will likely be new blood in that dugout soon, and he may never get a real chance this year.

Improve, stay the same, or get worse? Improve.

The point of this entire exercise was to break down the team piece by piece, and without looking at the bullpen (third best in the AL in ERA), it is evident there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot to look forward to with the Rays in 2010. It explains why they’ve regressed from a dominant team to an above average one, and while they’ll likely keep in contention in the AL East, I believe the Rays won’t even make the playoffs this year if the Red Sox can get healthy.

And in fantasy baseball, I’m even less impressed. Their starters give up too many home runs and a few of them have benefited from great luck. The lineup has its holes and inconsistencies, and after Crawford, Zobrist, Longoria, there isn’t much to be excited about.

Sorry Rays fans, but April and May could become those two months of glory that you’ll always remember, in a season that left playoff hopes unfulfilled.

There have been many surprises in the first half of the season, and there will surely be many more in the second half. Here’s a list of guys who may break through in the tail end, and a few who could become big ole’ busts.

Break Through:

Joe Mauer, MIN: It’d be hard to discuss first half surprises without talking the disappointment of Joe Mauer. We figured he would display less power this year than his outburst of 2009 indicated, yet I’m still surprised that he hit just four homers in the first half.

And we at least thought his batting average would more than make up for the lack in power, but at .293, it isn’t very Mauer-like. Good news folks, there’s no need to worry. Mauer has battled with the alignment of Target Field, and openly expressed his discontent for the Twins new ballpark, but the stats indicate his production should return to normal in the second half.

His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is 0.26 below his career average, and he’s hitting home runs on just 5% of flyballs, still below his 10.7% career average, and much less than the 20.4% clip he showed last year.

Add in 24 doubles in 290 at bats (on pace to shatter his career high). We can hope that a few of those turn into home runs, and Mauer should be well on his way to being an elite fantasy catcher yet again.

Second Half Hopeful: .324, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 43 R, 1 SB

Aaron Hill, TOR: C’mon guys, Aaron Hill isn’t great, but he isn’t this bad either. He’s suffering from an insanely low .180 BABIP and his home run pace is actually in line with what you should expect. He won’t make or break your team in the second half, but I think he’ll become at least useful as a mixed league second baseman.

Second Half Hopeful: .270, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 31 R, 2 SB

Curtis Granderson, NYY: Taking a look at Grandy’s splits usually tells the story: terrible against lefties, fantastic against righties. But what’s been interesting this year has been his at bat totals against each. Last season he had 451 against righties (.275, 28 HR) and 180 against lefties (.183, 2HR), taking more than 71% of his at bats against righthanders. But this year, he’s taken just 61% of his at bats against righties, and the results aren’t fun to watch. He’s still played well against them, but with just 138 at bats, his 6 HRs aren’t much different than we’d expect. Maybe opposing teams have been doing everything they can to get a lefty in when Granderson is up, but he should fare better in the second half when Joe Girardi begins to play the matchups more consistently.

Second Half Hopeful: .268, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 28 R, 8 SB

Zack Greinke, KC: Greinke has raised his K/9 in the second half every season he’s been a pro so far, and I’m not expecting anything different this year. He’s picked it up as of late too, fanning 35 in his last 39 innings and winning his last four decisions. He’s allowed a few more home runs this season than the last, but he’s still looked dominant and should put together a strong second half again for the Royals.

Second Half Hopeful: 88 IP, 7 W, 98 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Busts

Adam Lind, TOR: Lind doesn’t exactly have the biggest expectations to meet in the second half after a miserable start to the season (.214, 12 HR). But his power numbers are actually in line with what I expected. He’s never been a huge home run guy in the minor leagues, and projects more of a 25-guy than the 35-guy he showed us last year. His batting average is bound to go up, but I believe there may be a correlation with him trying to hit for more power and instead, creating more outs. His fly ball percentage is the highest of his career and his HR/FB is right on par with his average, so I wouldn’t expect his power to re-appear in the second half.

Second Half Blunder: .261, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 28 R, 0 SB

Jason Bartlett, TB: After his 14 HR campaign last year, there weren’t many believers that Bartlett would have another strong season in the power category this year. But we at least expected some speed and a solid average, and we’re being disappointed. The bottom line though is that he’s been extremely unlucky, with low BABIP numbers nearly 60 points under his average. But he isn’t running. And while he says his hamstring is getting better, it doesn’t look like it. He’s attempted just six steals this year after swiping 30 bags last season, and his infield hit percentage is down more than three times his career average. Bartlett doesn’t have much power, and his main contributions come from his speed, but it’s no where to be found.

Second Half Blunder: .258, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 35 R, 7 SB

Alex Rios, CWS: I don’t really have any statistical research behind this one, but Rios has had problems maintaining consistency throughout his career, and I’d be shocked if he keeps playing as well as he has been. He’s finished with a batting average above .300 just once in his seven-year career and has hit more than 17 home runs just once as well. He’s also been caught stealing nine times already this season, matching his career high. There isn’t a whole lot to point to that indicates his fantastic first half will continue, and I’ll live on the side of caution with him in the second half. And if the White Sox fall out of contention, they’ll become big-time sellers at the end of the month, liquidating a few parts of their lineup. Rios won’t be bad, but I just can’t see him being this good.

Second Half Blunder: .284, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 37 R, 9 SB

Brian Roberts, BAL: There isn’t a whole lot of encouraging news coming out of Baltimore regarding Brian Roberts. It’s hard to consider him a bust at this point, but I had to include him on the list seeing as he probably won’t make a fantasy impact at any point this season. He’s on the field at least, rehabbing with the Gulf Coast League Orioles, but he doesn’t think he’ll be back until at least August, and Andy MacPhail has no reason to rush his recovery. Roberts may be worth hanging onto if you have the roster space, but if you’ve been holding him around for a while waiting to cut bait, it wouldn’t be a terrible decision to let him go.

Second Half Blunder: 82 AB, .282, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 16 R, 2 SB

David Price, TB: The terrific first half of David Price has been great for fantasy owners. He’s been able to pitch deeper into games, keep the ball in the park, and increase his K/9 from a season ago. But his crazy 80.2% strand rate indicates he’s been quite lucky, and an xFIP (a stat used to judge ERA independent of fielding) of 3.95 ranks him outside of the top starters in the league. Command has always been his issue; when he can locate his slider and fastball, he’s been filthy. But his walk rate has been just as bad as it was last year, and I’m slightly concerned that he rarely uses his slider anymore (just 6.7% of the time, as opposed to 30.2% when he first entered the league). And that’s not my main concern. I’m worried about his innings, and his body staying healthy. Price hasn't tossed a whole lot of innings aside from last year, and his pitch/inning ratio was quite high. I don’t know that his body will hold up for a full 200+ inning season nor how his young frame will adapt when he begins to tire down the stretch.

Second Half Blunder: 86 IP, 6 W, 68 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

When Michael Brantley made his return from Columbus to become the Indians new leadoff hitter and center fielder, he was glooming with confidence. The 23-year-old had struggled in his first go around with Cleveland earlier this season, hitting 5-for-32 without stealing a base. But after more than two months at Triple-A, he had done enough to earn himself another Indians uniform.

Brantley hit .315 in 241 at bats, waking 29 times to just 27 strikeouts, and swiping 11 bags in 16 tries. The International League was doing everything it could to keep him on first base too, since he went 46-for-51 in base stealing attempts there last season. Opposing pitchers threw over three or four times per at bat to check on him, and used the slide step almost exclusively, but it only made Brantley work harder at becoming a threat on the bases.

Manager Manny Acta already told reporters that Brantley will be playing center and hitting lead off almost every day, and with little competition behind him, he should get an extended try this time.

Brantley adjusted his swing while in the minors, getting his front foot in place quicker, allowing him to use his legs more and get a better look at the ball. He also moved his hands further from his body in attempt to gain more power.

The power isn’t what fantasy owners will be looking for out of Brantley though, as he’s a career .300 hitter in the minors with far more walks than strikeouts, and his speed alone will surely add value. Look for him to get consistent playing time the rest of the season, and those in search of speed will be happy with what they find.

While on the Indians, Luis Valbuena has also played well at Triple-A, hitting .300 in 40 at bats. There isn’t a whole lot in front of him at second base, but he doesn’t bring much to the table for fantasy owners. Even so, he’s worth keeping an eye on in deeper leagues.

The leading innings-eater for Cleveland’s Triple-A squad, Carlos Carrasco is due up with the big league club at some point this year, as cited by Acta. Carrasco has fanned 82 in 96.2 innings on his way to a 4.38 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Consistent struggle with command has kept him from becoming a stud, but he could provide some value upon his call up if he can keep the strikeout numbers high.

If I had my choice among Triple-A starters though, I’d still be hanging on to Jeremy Hellickson. I’ve even got him stashed in a couple 12-team mixed leagues. It’s just too hard to ignore his ridiculous stat line: 11-2, 2.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 104 Ks in 105.2 IP.

He’s been highly regarded in baseball, ranked No. 18 in Baseball America’s top prospects list this year. And with Wade Davis struggling, he could get his chance soon.

There has also been speculation that the Rays may make a trade. B.J. Upton has been involved in some talks, and with Desmond Jennings just waiting to be the center fielder of the future, that makes sense. And Andrew Friedman has shown he’s willing to deal just about anyone. Don’t be surprised if a starter gets moved too, opening the door for Hellickson.

And with Jake Peavy leaving his Tuesday night start in the second inning with an apparent right arm injury, the Daniel Hudson clock keeps ticking in Chicago. Hudson has fanned 108 in just over 93 innings at Triple-A Charlotte, with a 3.47 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Carlos Torres is also dazzling, with 103 Ks in 110 IP, adding a 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but Hudson has been the name most fantasy players have been waiting for.

He’s been tagged as the White Sox’ No. 3 prospect by Baseball America, and has consistently fanned around 10 per nine innings. He could come up and be dominant right away, though control problems have been an issue in the past. If Peavy has to hit the DL, Hudson could see time with the streaking Sox sooner than expected.

Felix Pie made his return to the Orioles on Tuesday, batting seventh and playing left field while going 2-for-6 at the dish with an RBI. The O’s have said they don’t want to rush him back, so he’ll likely have frequent rest for the first week or so. And with Corey Patterson playing great in the leadoff role, Pie may see limited time for a while before Paterson comes down to earth, or Pie plays too good to stay on the bench.

Don’t hold your breath.

The injury plague has pestered the Boston Red Sox all season, and now even worse news comes out of Beantown as Dustin Pedroia and Victor Martinez will be missing some time over the next couple of weeks. Pedroia is expected to miss six weeks with a broken left foot after he fouled a ball off it last weekend. Bill Hall played second base on Sunday, but the Sox recently traded for Eric Patterson from the A’s, and he could see significant time there as well. Both Hall and Patterson play the infield and outfield, so it will be interesting to see how Terry Francona uses them in Pedroia’s absence.

I think Patterson is going to get a chance to play, with Hall getting some time in the outfield. But it will likely come down to who’s playing better, since neither of them have hit well this season. It could develop into a platoon situation with the right-handed Hall and the lefty-swinging Patterson, but it may be Patterson’s job to lose.

“We want to get [Patterson] here and work him out at second. What he really gives, hopefully, is a lot of versatility,” Francona told the Boston Globe on Sunday. “He can play the outfield; he can play second. Billy can kind of do the same things. Maybe they complement each other.’’

Martinez will hit the DL and is expected to take just the minimum time off. He has a bone fracture in his left thumb, but it’s expected to heal on its own by the time he’s eligible to return. Jason Varitek becomes a mixed-league worthy catcher for at least the next two weeks.

Matt Joyce got recalled to the Rays last Thursday and Joe Maddon said he’ll get a chance to play every day. Even when Carl Crawford returns, Joyce is expected to get his at bats in the outfield. He hasn’t shined since two years ago when he hit 12 home runs in a third of a season, but he was hitting .293 with 22 walks to 21 strikeouts in 93 at bats in Triple-A this year and could provide some pop.

Taking advantage of Edwin Encarnacion’s demotion to Triple-A, Jarrett Hoffpauir has been the starting third baseman for the Jays over the past week. At 27 years old, Hoffpauir had just 12 major league at bats before his promotion, but had been raking in the minors, hitting .328 with 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a 21:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Brett Wallace is still in the minors hitting good as well (.301 average, 14 HR), but his likely landing spot is first base, which could open up soon when Lyle Overbay gets traded. So that leaves Hoffpauir with third base all to himself, and if he can fend off Encarnacion from taking his job back, he could be a decent option in deeper leagues.

It was only a matter of time before Carlos Quentin (five homers in his last seven games) started seeing better results with the bat. He’s been on the wrong side of the luck fountain this year, with just a .225 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). His walk rate is also up, and after his home run/fly ball percentage continues to climb back up to his normal rates, he should be a solid .250-30 HR guy the rest of the way this year.

Anthony Lerew turned in his second quality start in three tries for the Royals on Monday night, tossing six innings and fanning four, while allowing just one run on three hits and one walk. The 27-year-old righthander has been consistently decent in the minor leagues (5-3, 2.84 ERA in Triple-A this season), and while he doesn’t strikeout a whole bunch, he does keep the ball in the park and could be an average replacement player if you’re digging for innings.

Brennan Boesch just won’t stop hitting for the Tigers. He’s now got his average up to .335, with 12 home runs and 45 RBI in 54 games. His free-swinging style may become a problem and his batting average is sure to take a dip (career .269 average in the minors), but the power is legit. I may even offer a few trades in a league where I’m short on home runs, where someone might be looking to sell high and be happy to get any value for him.

Jason Repko was called up to the Twins on Friday from Triple-A Rochester. He played right field and went 1-for-4 at the dish, but likely will take on a reserve role in the outfield.

Alfredo Simon appears to have his closing job back in Baltimore after shutting down the Nationals on Sunday. David Hernandez pitched the eighth inning, so Simon owners can breathe easier for now.

Speaking of the Orioles, it’s a good thing to keep their Triple-A sluggers in mind as they could be sellers in the trade market pretty soon. Ty Wigginton is expected to be moved, while Justin Turner, Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes, and Nolan Reimold could be beneficiaries.

Jason Mastrodonato is a student at Northeastern University and a sports reporter for The Boston Globe. He earned a second place finish in the FantasyPros911.com Expert League last season. He can be heard weekly on the Fantasy Roundtable Radio Show or you can follow him on Twitter, @JMastrodonato.