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DownloadLast week I gave you my thoughts on my freeze list heading into the XFL auction draft last Friday at First Pitch AZ in Phoenix Arizona. So did I turn that list into a contending team? You tell me….here are the players I bought and thoughts about the auction in general.
I had $108 in the auction to buy
As expected I had to wait a while to make my first purchase – there were eight teams with $130 plus and four of them had more than $160 – and there were some highly prized free agents like Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman, and pitchers Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia. Pujols went for $66, Holliday 40, Zimmerman 39 (I was in until the mid-30s); Halladay cost 42 and Sabathia surprisingly only 27.
I wanted to start the afternoon with Mike Napoli but while I think he will have more at bats and thus possibly more RBI and Runs, likely a much lower OBA and surrendered to Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson when he continued beyond Napoli’s earning this year and spent $29 to roster him. So my first opportunity came when Alex Rodriguez was finally nominated. How much would this astute group discount the injury plagued 2011 season? I was surprised (would said pleasantly but that will be a function of ARod’s 2012 season) to roster him at $29. When you need to take some chances this is the type of bet to place. If ARod rebounds he will earn a profit and in this league would be eminently keepable at $34 maybe even a third year.
The good catchers were expensive and even though I was willing to spend at that position, I felt Napoli (29), Brian McCann (25), Victor Martinez (24), Miguel Montero (24?), and Chris Iannetta (15) were overvalued by my opponents, so I settled for Russell Martin at $8. Martin should easily earn that and can bring home a profit even if he gets fewer AB in 2012.
I was happier when I rostered Adam Jones at $21. While that might be slightly over actual earned dollars he could take another step up next year and even a repeat of 2011 adds 20+ HR, double digit SB, and an OBA of almost .320 to my team.
Asdrubal Cabrera wasn’t my first choice for a MI, but Jose Reyes at $38 was a bet I didn’t want to make and Chase Utley went for $26, so when AsCab was nominated I was interested. No, I don’t think he will repeat all last year’s numbers or earn the $24 I paid for him but the drop to the level of Jeter, Peralta, Furcal, and Aybar wasn’t where I wanted to settle AND you have to use your available funds where you can before the auction gets to the point of several players having more money than there is value and you are trying to compete with less (trust me I thought that might happen and it did).
In the mid auction, I was very glad to roster Michael Cuddyer (regardless of where he signs) for just $11 and Ivan Nova for $6 (as I think any Yankee SP who can go six inning most outing has added value and Nova certainly had a promising second half of the season.
The end game was bargain city. Who knew there were two teams who would not use a significant portion of their dollars? Plus several other owners would have different targets in a rich environment than I had my sights set on. I really like Pittsburgh outfielder Alex Pressley – he was very impressive in his debut last season and if not for the injury which cost him several weeks and AB he would have been more attractive. So roster him for a dollar in a keeper league was, at least in my opinion, a plus. I didn’t need to roster saves with Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell on my roster but a cheap potential closer would have significant value and while I don’t see Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel losing his job any time in the near future, Jonny Venters has a ton of REAL value on that team. Venters had six wins and five saves with a great ERA and WHIP (1.84 and 1.09), but the 96 strikeouts in 81 innings is a very big plus and I believe Todd had him valued at $8 for last year. That will be a very nice profit on my $2 purchase with great upside.
I had a handful of names of starting pitchers who I think have very good situations for next year that I would be able to get for a dollar or two. Assuming the Kansas City Royals are smart enough (yeah I know that is not guaranteed) to put RHP Aaron Crow into the rotation in March I think he will have success so I was glad to roster him even if I was force to pay $4 and I had the money.
That brings me to a final thought from the XFL auction that might help you in leagues where you have an in season salary cap that you might well go up against. If the end game targets you have get very cheap and you would have paid $5 but got the targeted player (a real target – not just a player you like and overpaid for) for a dollar or two, you didn’t necessarily waste the three dollars you left on the table – you will have that much more room if you trade up and near the cap. Please note I am in no way suggesting you did well to leave double digit dollars on the table by misjudging the auction. Hopefully you see the difference.
We will revisit my XFL roster when the supplemental draft arrives in early March.{jcomments on}
Well the freeze deadline passed without being able to make a deal – not for lack of effort but Jeff Erickson of Rotowire decided he liked Chris Carpenter ($18) and Johnny Cueto ($13) over Jonathan Papelbon ($17) and/or Arodys Vizcaino ($4) and a supplemental draft upgrade. Which means I had to cut one of those pitchers or one of the eight hitters I had planned on keeping.
Ultimately I decided to continue with an AC/DC approach to 2012: keep the best players to compete this year (I only have one FARM eligible player) and hope to find the right players in the auction to give me a chance to win in 2012.Then I can enhance what turn out to be weak spots and gain prospects in the supplemental draft in March. And, if that fails to produce a contender then trade off the contracts I won’t want in 2013 and get ready with more quality prospects (remember this is a keeper league that functions like a dynasty league).
Obviously that meant keeping Papelbon over Vizcaino. And I chose to do that even if it meant having two closers that would earn only a modest profit because I can nominate closers (and first basemen) everytime the bid gets to me and let the others battle it out for those players.
So here is my freeze list:
C – J.P. Arencibia (4)
1B – Gaby Sanchez (7)
CI – Justin Smoak (7)
2B – Darwin Barney (6)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (34)
OF – Melky Cabrera (6), Juan Pierre (11), and Jerry Sands (4)
SP – C.J. Wilson (11), Jhoulys Chacin (9), Vance Worley (10), and Ryan Vogelsong (10)
RP – Heath Bell (16) and Papelbon (17)
FARM - Jarrod Parker (AZ)
That leaves me $108 to spend on C, 3B, MI, two OF, UT and three pitchers (hopefully one very cheap closer or a nice closer in waiting and two cheap starters).
The auction will be this Friday at 3 PM at First Pitch Arizona. If you can’t stop by you can hear the broadcast/interviews from the draft on the fantasy sports channel on XM-87/ Sirius-210.
No I am not deranged talking about freeze decisions in October – the XFL, a 15-team experts keeper league entering its tenth season, holds its auction draft on the first weekend of November at First Pitch Arizona.
So I have one day left to submit my freeze list. The good news is that I am down to 16 players – the bad news is I can only freeze 15.
To help you understand the auction dynamics I have to explain that while we end the auction with the “standard” 23 players rostered for $260 (plus any FARM eligible prospects), we complete our 40-man rosters with a 17-round supplemental draft in March. So you can fix any roster deficiencies either via trades or with those supplemental picks.
Try as I might this season, I couldn’t get Captain Hook’s mates out of the lower third of the league, and so at the trade deadline I traded my 11th or possible 10th place finish for 12th place when I dealt Mike Napoli ($23) and Hiroki Kuroda ($9) for Jarrod Parker, a very promising starting pitcher who may well be in the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation next March (and a required ML body, in this case catcher Miguel Olivo ($7)). None of those active players were likely keepers since they faced a $5 increase to be frozen on to 2012 rosters.
After the season ended, I got busy trying to acquire more youth or players I think will exceed their freeze prices next year. So here are the trades I made:
So now one day before I have to submit my freeze list, I put Jonathan Papelbon ($12+5) and Arodys Vizcaino ($1+3) on the trading block, hoping to turn one or both into picks in the March draft. Papelbon should make at least a small profit no matter where he signs and together with Heath Bell would solidify a strong position in saves. But it would also cost me 13 auction dollars versus keeping Vizcaino (another player who exceeded our incredibly small innings (10) trigger to kick him off the Farm). I would love to build on the fly with Vizcaino (and Parker and some well-priced hitters like Arencibia, Smoak, and Gaby Sanchez ($4+3), but if the Braves bring back most of their starters and Julio Teheran gets the last rotation spot over Vizcaino, I won’t get real value from him until 2013 at $1+3+3.
What would you do absent a trade offer?
As we head towards the last month of play in the American League Central, the misplaced high hopes generated by a quick start by the 2011 Royals has given way to a much better look at what should be a Royals team flush with rising young stars.
From March’s opening day roster, Alcides Escobar obtained in the Greinke trade with the Brewers is still at shortstop; Alex Gordon the former first round pick has found his home in left field; and Billy Butler continues to just hit – now a full time designated hitter. There are two more Royals still on the field – center fielder Melky Cabrera, thought by many to just be a placeholder from speedster Lorenzo Cain (also obtained in the Greinke trade), has been the Royals best hitter all year and a fantasy gold mine if you were smart enough to draft him, approaching a 20-20 season hitting .310 with 15 home runs, 70 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. People tend to forget that the “Melkman” once a prized Yankee prospect is still just twenty-seven years old. Since the Royals didn’t trade Cabrera, there is good reason to think they are now smart enough to plan on keeping him in the 2012 lineup.
Another former prospect from the Atlanta organization – right fielder Jeff Francoeur is also just twenty-seven and has been very solid for the Royals, now hitting .270 with 15 home runs, 64 RBI, and 18 stolen bases. Francoeur also has a very good chance to be a 20-20 player this year.
Either Cabrera or Francoeur if not both should be in the opening day lineup next year as catcher turned outfielder Wil Myers is at least another year away from the big club.
During the season, Royals fans as well as fantasy players have seen the arrival of:
1B – Eric Hosmer
2B – Johnny Giavotella
3B – Mike Moustakas
Just last week, the Royals showed their fans another piece of the Royals to be when they promoted catcher Salvador Perez. Perez, just twenty-one, hit .290 with 10 home runs and 53 RBI between AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha and has already shown fans a great arm behind the plate and the excellent defense that Royals scouts have seen in his development.
What remains to be seen is the development of a solid major league pitching staff. True the Royals have lots of good arms in the minor leagues, but Mike Montgomery presumed to be the most advanced of those pitchers has had a very poor season this year while John Lamb another good LHP prospect lost the season to surgery. Jake Odorizzi also obtained in the Greinke trade is a year behind but still looks like he could join the Royals by 2013. Danny Duffy, another good LHP was promoted this year but has struggled – as many young pitchers do. Still he should be better next year. The club did promote several relievers who did a good job this year and will convert RHP Aaron Crow to a starter next season.
It may have seemed far away, but the Royal Flush should arrive in Kansas City within the next year or two. Finally.
Fantasy baseball may be based on major league baseball, but it isn’t close to MLB in many ways – but next week there is an important area your league should share with the major league clubs.
Sunday will be July 31 and the non-waiver trade deadline for MLB. And sometime in the first week of August should be your league’s trade deadline too. My AL keeper league and many leagues use the first weekend in August, which this year will be Aug 6 & 7. August 1 and 2 are the earliest it could be with those rules. You want to have it after the July 31 date so everyone can see how those first and likely most impactful trade will affect your teams and players.
But the main reason for an early August trade deadline in fantasy baseball leagues is so that a late deadline trade can’t impact your league’s standings. With an early August trade deadline, fantasy players have two months to battle it out with the rosters they have and common access to the free agent pool.
All of the above is primarily for keeper and dynasty leagues. Frankly I think redraft leagues should follow the lead of the national high stakes contests and not have any trades. If there is no future value for acquired players and no cost to ending up with a terrible roster, what is the incentive for teams to always have equitable trades? And how would you legislate trade regulations?
Maybe if your redraft league feels it has to allow trading they should have an All Star break trade deadline. That would liven up the days off and create some great All Star parties. And it would be less likely to have poor trades made. Most teams could benefit from a trade then as they would still have a chance to catch up in most categories.
Let’s see what happens in keeper league trades over the next two weeks – that should provide some very entertaining stories for a future column.{jcomments on}