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DownloadI don’t like to write much about baseball publicly in a non-fantasy sense, since it has led about 99% of the flame wars I have been involved in over the years and quite frankly, I’m too old to argue with asstards who aren’t smart enough to know how dumb they are so I stick to fantasy. While I didn’t necessarily agree with the Nationals decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg, I respected it and assumed there was information I (and everyone else) wasn’t privy to so I privately trusted that Mike Rizzo made the right decision. So maybe that’s in the back of my mind when I roll my eyes at those that contend Washington would have won the NLDS had Strasburg been active. They were one strike away on a pair of occasions, thus more than capable of defeating the Cardinals without their phenom.
Speaking of which, to those that are laying into Drew Storen since it was obvious he was a deer in the headlights, I say “really?” REALLY?!?!?! For years, my pet peeve when watching games has been how great commentators are at telling us what happened, occasionally veering into the psyche of the athlete’s minds. Well, thanks to Twitter and Facebook, this now extends to fans as well. Really? It was obvious? You could tell Storen was afraid of the Cardinals? Sigh.
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For the record, despite the above, I think Facebook and Twitter are great, even though their evolution has rendered the message forum all but useless. I’m still in the lurker stage, but the combination of information, humor and opinion sharing – all in real time – is a blast.
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Good thing I’m not running for office because I’d suck at a debate.
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On a few different occasions, I have hinted that I plan to alter my drafting style, specifically to introduce more risk. Apparently, it is going to be tough to teach this old dog new tricks. I’m involved in the kick-off NFBC draft, appropriately deemed the Pre-Mature League. My recent track record is such that I will not denigrate any pick or call it bad. Instead, I will respectfully disagree with it.
Mike Trout was the first pick and although the person making the pick is one of the favorite people I have met in the NFBC, I would not make Trout the first pick. Some are going to use Trout to make their point that repeating performance is hard and somewhat hyperbolically espouse he is not worthy of a first round pick. I’ll take the stance that I would definitely draft Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera before Trout. I would probably take Robinson Cano next. Then all bets are off. I would start deciding between Trout and Joey Votto. By spring, I will have a more definitive analysis, but as of now, Trout just may sneak into the back end of my top-5.
Buster Posey went 15th overall and you know what? I have no issues with that pick. I would not take him that early, but that’s more strategy than potential related. I bet he approaches an ADP of 10-12 by springtime.
The last thing you want to see at this point of the season is an analysis of someone else’s draft, so I will just share my first 16 picks: Prince Fielder, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Corey Hart, Brandon Phillips, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Napoli, Matt Moore, Dan Haren, Addison Reed, Tom Wilhelmsen, Brian McCann, Neil Walker, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo and Cody Ross. So much for living on the edge – lather, rinse, repeat. But, I feel the chances taken by others are too extreme, pushing more reliable players my way so I’ll have to wait a bit before I walk on the wild side.
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Last week, I was contacted By Greg Ambrosius of the NFBC who asked Baseball HQ’s Ron Shandler and me our opinions on what to do with standard AL and NL only formats with Houston moving to the AL (standard being 12 team AL and 13 team NL). Keeper leagues obviously have to come up with something that preserves the salary dynamic. However, in redraft leagues, assuming you can drop the NL ownership to twelve without causing a stir, I think the perfect solution is a 12-team league but adding a 24th roster spot with this catch: the spot can be filled with a hitter or pitcher. In terms of player pool penetration, previous to the Astros move, 79% of active American Leaguers are on a fantasy roster with 78% of their National league counterparts active. With my suggestion, the penetration would be 77% and allow for some fun strategy in terms of using a hitter or pitcher as the 24th player.
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Not to get too political, but I have what I believe to be the best means to narrow down the candidates. I refuse to vote for anyone whose name I see toted around on a stick at a busy intersection. Don’t those people know how distracting that is to those driving and texting at the same time?
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While I realize football is more popular that baseball in the mainstream, I did find it a little odd how there was so much water cooler talk about a replacement referee’s decision in an early season NFL game as compared to how an MLB team was eliminated from the playoffs on a questionable infield-fly rule call. I’m not talking about on Twitter or the radio; I’m talking at work and about town. My co-workers (sorry, if you didn’t already know, I don’t do this fantasy stuff for a living) barely mentioned it. Not a sole at my gym brought it up but were talking about the football call for a week. Bringing this to fantasy, I understand that one was a regular season game with fantasy implications while the other was a playoff game, but the dichotomy in the level of scuttlebutt I encountered speaks towards how much the NFL has embraced fantasy and has made it a significant part of marketing and the overall NFL experience while MLB still lags behind. It’s getting better, but there’s still work to do. This will be no more evident than the day Miguel Cabrera is announced as the landslide winner of the AL MVP.
As you likely know many of my staff brethren and I participate in the XFL, administered by our friend and colleague Ron Shandler from BaseballHQ. While not an industry league in the sense of Tout Wars and LABR, the XFL is certainly a showcase league featuring a stalwart group of industry veterans. Hmm, enough of us write about the league and the auction was covered live on SiriusXM satellite radio so maybe we are at least close to being on a par with LABR and Tout Wars.
Other than some rules quirks like OBP replacing batting average and not having any materials other than depth charts at the auction, what sets the XFL apart from the others is we are a keeper/dynasty league. There are 15 teams and each of us is allowed to freeze 15 players which can be a combination of active Major Leaguers or farm prospects.
Another quirk is we will hold the auction quite early, during the First Pitch Forum Arizona Symposium which will occur the first weekend in November. Here is my keeper list heading into the 2013 season.
Buster Posey $10 |
Jonathan Lucroy $10 |
Freddie Freeman $7 |
Mike Moustakas $7 |
Mike Trout $7 |
Jose Bautista $16 |
Corey Hart $23 |
Alex Rios $7 |
Clayton Kershaw $16 |
Drew Storen $10 |
Michael Pineda $7 |
Danny Hultzen farm |
James Paxton farm |
That’s 11 players for $120 and two farm guys (we have a combo reverse/farm roster with 17 spots whom we draft in March).
Well, this would have been my freeze list had I not opted to make some deals the past three seasons as I felt I had a chance to win. The problem is, I have fallen short and am left with just Bautista, Hart, Rios and Kershaw to actually carry over to next year, though I do have others that I will also protect.
Yes, that means I very well may have traded away the American and National League 2012 Most Valuable Players (Trout and Posey) along with the still maturing Freeman, Moustakas and Lucroy.
And you know what? I’d do it all over again if I was in the same situation. I’ve been asked if I really believe in the “Flags Fly Forever” mantra we preach and the above is proof positive that I do.
Long story short is I consider the XFL to be a hybrid keeper and dynasty format. In my way of thinking, a pure keeper league has rules which replenish the player pool every season, making rebuilding as fast as a one-year process. A pure dynasty league allows you to keep your entire, or close to your entire roster ad infinitum, so the turnover is extremely limited and consists of primarily fringe players. This makes building a team that will perpetually compete (i.e. a dynasty) a very long and arduous journey. The XFL is in between. We can keep players as long as we desire, but each year they incur either a $5 or $3 salary bump, with players drafted as prospects getting the very modest $3 raise. This forces some higher priced players into the pool but using Kershaw as an example, I drafted him as a prospect so he is only going to cost me $16 next year even though he would go for over twice than that on the open market. The potential MVP duo of Trout and Posey will be just $17 combined since I originally scooped them both as prospects.
My rule of thumb in leagues of this nature is I am willing to sacrifice competing and rebuild for multiple seasons, but I want to construct a foundation allowing me to compete for at least that many more years until I embark on the rebuilding process again. To that end, my endeavor was pseudo-successful as I wallowed in less than mediocrity from 2007-2009, leading to an ensuing 2nd, 3rd and likely 5th place finish this season with one more legit shot next year to go for it before I likely have to dismantle and focus on another youthful foundation.
If I fail to win the XFL next season, some may question my decisions to deal away such valuable entities as Trout and Posey. But as I mentioned, I would do it all over again if I felt I could win the title. I obviously didn’t win, some of which was my own doing with poor managerial decisions, some of which was injuries and trusting Jon Lester and Ricky Romero to support Kershaw this season. But next time I advise you to deal away a significant part of your future if you objectively feel it gives you an honest shot of winning, please take heed knowing I have done so myself – with no regrets.{jcomments on}
I’m relatively new to Twitter and thus far have been mostly lurking as opposed to getting involved in the multitude of compelling conversations that occur on a daily and nightly basis. The most debated topic amongst the colleagues I follow is Mike Trout versus Miguel Cabrera for American League Most Valuable Player.
It really is a rather interesting conundrum and really brings to light old-school versus new-age analysis. Embellishing the issue is the injury to Josh Hamilton has added the qualifier “Triple Crown winner” Cabrera to the conversation. There are many that are using that as the “out”, saying the race is too close to call hence awarding it to Miggy based on his likely historical accomplishment, potentially joining Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams (twice), Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson and Carl Yastrzemski as the only hitters to lead the Junior Circuit in batting average, homers and RBI in the same season. Further fueling the intrigue is Trout is doing what he’s doing at an age where he has been able to legally purchase alcohol for about a month and a half.
I, like most of the Twitter brethren I follow, agree that neither of these factors should influence the voting. Back when reporters shared a train ride to the next city with ballplayers I can understand how the Triple Crown could be considered such an outstanding accomplishment. Fortunately, we now comprehend that getting on base is more important than getting a hit and knocking in teammates is largely a team dependent stat, influenced somewhat by the randomness of the player’s batting average with runners in scoring position. With respect the youthfulness of the Angels’ phenom, who cares how young (or old) the player is, what matters is how he played.
My theoretical vote would go to Trout, but not without some feeling of contradiction. Long story short is if you judge using the newfangled stats that are designed to quantify performance and convert then to a metric that measures the impact on team wins, the Angels’ fly-chaser outpoints the Tigers’ hot cornerman, and it isn’t all that close. The contributions at the dish alone are quite even with a viable argument possible each way, though most will give Trout the edge. But when you add in what Trout does on the base paths and in center field as compared to what Cabrera does at third base sways the pendulum firmly to rookie’s side.
Cutting to the chase, Trout blows away Cabrera in WAR (wins above replacement). In fact, Trout blows away the field. Presently, Trout contributes 9.5 more wins than that of a replacement level player while Cabrera checks in at 6.9. This difference is huge and cannot be ignored. If you take Trout’s performance and correlate that to how much he contributes to a team winning, a lineup full of Mike Trout’s would destroy a lineup full of any other player.
But here is where I have some reservation. I’ll save this topic for another day, but while I understand the principle of WAR and agree with it philosophically, I am not in complete agreement with the manner the number is generated. Not to mention, there are variants of WAR meaning there are multiple algorithms used to come up with the quantification. Still, even though I may not be willing to crack my gavel and contend Trout is worth exactly 2.6 more wins than Cabrera, I am confident he is worth MORE wins, hence is deserved of the MVP.
That said, I have even more of a problem with what I consider a bit of uneven analysis. The stats used to determine WAR are the actual production of the player – it is what has happened. But yet, when the same pundits discuss a pitcher related award such as Cy Young, there is distinct mention of how much fate goes into the hurler’s performance. The luck involved with BABIP, HR/FB and LOB% are brought to the forefront and we are instructed to focus primarily on the skill and to largely ignore the outcome. Why don’t we do the same for hitters? To wit, Trout is sporting a BABIP most will contend will drop next season, yet are willing to give him credit, and include the “lucky hits” when computing WAR and the like. They don’t make an adjustment for the additional stolen base opportunities or chances to take the extra base afforded by these “extra” times on base. In addition, most will suggest his HR total will drop next season as his extremely high HR/FB is not repeatable, yet no adjustment is made for the bloated 2012 total.
Truth be told, I don’t actually think an adjustment should be made. This is not the SABR MVP, but an award meant to appeal to the mainstream audience. I’m perfectly happy with talking about what he has done and leaving the regression talk for the spring when the focus is on rankings.
Which segues into my next point and that is Trout has become the poster boy for a variety of causes trying to make their point. His performance is such an anomaly that he can be used as Exhibit A for so many agendas, some of which are contradictory, but that’s the nature of stats. Those that want to dispel the notion of the Triple Crown stats being the most relevant bang the Trout drum, saying Cabrera does not even belong in the MVP discussion. Those fantasy pundits that want to delineate player skill from player performance will surely take the stance that Trout will be overrated next spring, making their point by refusing to make him first round draft-worthy in their rankings. Hyperbole is running more rampant than Trout himself when he reaches base.
The final point I want to make is think of Jacoby Ellsbury and what was being said of him in terms of fantasy analysis this past spring (realizing the injury factor cannot be ignored). While some were putting him in their top-five, more were reticent to adamant he did not belong there. Some cited the riskiness of repeated performance while others went more game theory and allowed for some level of power but preached do not overpay for his steals, since you can get them later in the draft. Some even cited the position scarcity argument.
Now that you have all the negative Ellsbury images in your head, check this out:
BA | OBP | SLP | K% | BB% | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR | |
'12 Trout | 0.323 | 0.394 | 0.554 | 21.5 | 10.2 | 0.231 | 0.418 | 172 | 9.5 |
'11 Ellsbury | 0.321 | 0.376 | 0.552 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 0.230 | 0.402 | 150 | 9.4 |
I'm just sayin'...
{jcomments on}Draft Street is back with another Pick ‘Em contest. If you are on the fence about playing, consider the fact that there is no entry fee and so far, yours truly has cashed three times during various Draft Street Free Rolls.
The set-up is straightforward. There are eight tiers of players and you pick one player per tier. That’s it! No salary cap to worry about, no searching for cheap gems to be able to afford the expensive studs. Point and click eight times and voila, there’s your squad.
Here’s my entry in this week’s Free Roll.
TIER 1 – Ryan Braun (Ross Detwiler): The best player in fantasy baseball (yes, I said the best) is at home facing a southpaw. I’ll take that matchup every time. Other choices in this tier include Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez. Trout and McCutchen may have had stretches where they are the best player at that time, but for the season and going forward, I’ll take Braun.
TIER 2 – Adrian Gonzalez (Phil Hughes) – I’m a fan of Hughes as a fantasy performer with the sole bugaboo being homers – which is what I am hoping bites him as he faces the lefty Gonzalez. The Red Sox first baseman has been hitting the ball harder lately, including lofting more balls. Mark Trumbo, Prince Fielder and David Wright were also under consideration, but at the end of the day, the short right field porch in the new Yankee Stadium was the difference.
TIER 3 – Brandon Phillips (Christian Friedrich) – This was an interesting tier as no one else really stuck out despite there being some solid players including Shin-Soo Choo, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman and Edwin Encarnacion. Hamilton is facing Chris Sale and the others are squaring off pitchers with like handedness, so I’ll go with the righty Phillips versus the lefty Friedrich in Coors Field.
TIER 4 – Ryan Ludwick (Friedrich) – Another righty-lefty matchup in Coors Field is enticing. Curtis Granderson at home against Aaron Cook was considered with Cook’s ground ball tendencies giving the edge to Ludwick. Colby Rasmus and Justin Upton also populated this group.
TIER 5 – Neil Walker (Jordan Lyles) – While I am a huge fan of starting players at home, Walker makes the fourth away hitter on the ledger. Walker is a switcher and has been quietly performing very well this season and I look for him to continue. Bryce Harper, Jose Reyes, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler were among those that did not make the cut for this tier.
TIER 6 – Jim Thome (Jarrod Parker) – Being at home against a righty was the impetus for this pick as the lefty Thome is taking well to Camden Yards. Parker is a formidable foe but is better at home. The streaking Garrett Jones and Chase Headley along with Ryan Howard and Brett Lawrie encompass this grouping.
TIER 7 – Drew Stubbs (Friedrich) – Stubbs makes the third Red selected so you know what game I’ll be watching. Stubbs is having close to what is expected and can score points with power or speed. Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Moustakas and Adam LaRoche failed to make it from this set.
TIER 8 – Carlos Santana (Scott Diamond) – I don’t love this pick, but Santana meets the requirements, so he gets the nod over Dustin Pedroia, Ichiro Suzuki and Coco Crisp.
There you go. If you want to pick out your crazy eight CLICK HERE.
I usually don’t write about my private life very much because it’s private - and my life. But mostly I don’t write about it because it’s just not that interesting. However, this Monday I am going to do something I haven’t done since April 9, 2010. At approximately 6:30 AM, then again at 6:37 AM, then maybe one more time at 6:44 AM, my alarm is going to go off and I’m going to get ready for work.
You see, the dirty little secret is I don’t do this for a living. I’ve had the opportunity but I always respectfully declined for two reasons. The first is my fear that if my hobby became my vocation, I would end up disliking them both. The second and more relevant reason is as passionate as I am about fantasy baseball, I am even more passionate about science and feel I have some unfinished business and am not ready to give up on it just yet.
In an effort to get by the past several months, I have been fortunate enough to pick up some freelance work with ESPN. As it turns out, I was wrong about my fears as I love the work I’m doing for them. Well, I was technically half-wrong as the management of my own teams has become a bit of a drag but that may be as much of a function of over-extending what is already a healthy bunch of leagues. But drafting is just so much fun, and when I said “yes”, I had no idea ESPN would be keeping me as busy as they have. Though I suspect this would be the case regardless, but this is a story for another day as I have had an epitome or two about managing so many teams.
With respect to science, I fell in love with the discipline during high school my senior year. You’ll find this shocking, but the odds and probabilities involved with genetics was the hook. Up until that point, my plans were to pursue a career in engineering since I was strongest in math and physics while chemistry and biology were more courses I had to take. But trying to figure out what a rooster would look like changed my life. I decided combining math and science was the way to go and changed the plan to biomedical engineering.
Then during my freshman year in college, I decided to drop the engineering part and pursue pure science as I was smitten by the problem solving nature of the discipline. The ability to “see” things that the human eye cannot see fascinated me. I loved the idea of designing an experiment, gathering then analyzing data and drawing conclusions.
A few years later, I graduated with BS degrees (insert your own joke here) in Biology and Biochemistry and a few years after that, an MS in Chemistry. I then embarked on a career that encompassed varying scientific disciples, including organic chemistry, analytical chemistry and peptide chemistry. My personality lent itself to working in smaller, more entrepreneurial companies. This is very rewarding but comes with a caveat – small entrepreneurial Biotech companies have an inherent risk, one which I was reminded first-hand three times. Small entrepreneurial Biotechs tend to become former small entrepreneurial Biotechs, especially the past several years.
As long-time readers of this space know, there were other extenuating circumstances, but still, being unable to find work for 27 months was a bit much. I’ll admit there were times I thought I’d donned a lab coat and goggles for the last time. Well, other than Halloween when I played the Mad Scientist. But mostly fueled from having lost my Mom to breast cancer and my Dad to Alzheimer’s, I sorely wanted to continue my science career. I’m not naïve. I’m not going to cure cancer or solve Alzheimer’s, but maybe I can help just a little. And thankfully, I’ll once again have that chance.
If only there was a way where I could marry my love for baseball with the intrigue of odds and probabilities combined with analyzing data and drawing conclusions in a small, entrepreneurial environment. Hmm.{jcomments on}