Salient is an excellent design with a fresh approach for the ever-changing Web. Integrated with Gantry 5, it is infinitely customizable, incredibly powerful, and remarkably simple.
DownloadWith the 2023 MLB season in the books, it's always fun to look back at the player's earnings. The FREE spreadsheet available via download has final earnings for
12-Team AL only and 12-team NL only, both 4x4 and 5x5, where you either KEEP players traded to the other league or LOSE them
12-Team Mixed
15-Team Mixed
I'm happy to address questions on the site form.
Look for an announcement regarding 2024 Mastersball soon. I will launch by November 1 (maybe earlier, we'll see).
I'm guessing this is out there already, with studies a lot more intense than what I'm about to present. That said, I ran some quick correlation studies on component average exit velocity (AEV) and component BABIP and thought I'd share the findings. Since it's too long for a tweet, I figured I'd dust off my old site column and post it here.
The impetus was writing a profile for Jeff McNeil as his Statcast levers are not favorable - at least they appeared wonky for such a consistent hitter.
The idea is learning how AEV on grounders (GB), fly balls (FB) and outfield line drives (OLD) affects their respective BABIP. I wanted a full season's worth of data, so I looked at 2018 and 2019. These make a good pair since the ball in 2019 incurred much less air resistance than 2018 and while it doesn't influence AEV, it could affect the outcomes.
I landed on 50 batted ball events (BBE) after running the data for several BBE. The number doesn't matter for this quick study since the goal is unearthing general trends to aid in profile writing as opposed to incorporation into my projection engine.
The study is straightforward. I (well, Excel) calculated the correlation coefficient between AEV and BABIP for all players with at least 50 BBE for each type of event. By means of reminder, perfect correlation is 1, perfect reverse correlation is -1 (this will be relevant) while a completely random relationship is 0.
Here are the findings:
BABIP | 2019 | 2018 |
GB | 0.28 | 0.26 |
FB | -0.13 | -0.11 |
OLD | 0.24 | 0.30 |
Intuitively, I expected the correlation to be stronger. Sure, it's positive, but there is a lot of wiggle room. Looking at the GB AEV and OLD AEV and assuming because it's low, a high BABIP will regress isn't as salient an argument as I perceived. Similarly, a high GB AEV and OLD AEV and a low BABIP may not manifest in a higher BABIP.
The fly ball data may surprise some, but based on prior research, it's not alarming. The small negative correlation is saying it's not always a bad thing to hit soft fly balls. These fall into the purgatory between the outfielders and the infielders. Better struck fly balls are the proverbial cans of corn.
One more correlation was conducted, examining the relationship between FB and OLD AEV and HR%. Don't worry, this one yielded the expected results:
HR% | 2019 | 2018 |
FB | 0.83 | 0.81 |
OLD | 0.51 | 0.48 |
Sure enough, elevating the ball with velocity correlates very well to homers. The OLD data incorporates batted balls with trajectories too low be classified as FB, but with too small a launch angle to clear the fence,
Again, there isn't anything earth-shattering here, but it does demonstrate AEV is much more relevant for power than average.
It’s pretty mind-blowing. For years, when the Tampa Bay Rays were overcoming the odds and fielding a competitive team on a minimal budget they were heralded as innovators. Some even considered them geniuses.
Now, when they’re on the precipice of winning it all, they’re ruining the game.
Really? It’s fine to be creative and just miss the playoffs or be eliminated early, but make it to the World Series and you’re scoundrels?
I just don’t get it.
Charlie Morton would never have been taken out in the good old days.
Well, back then, pitchers were able to cruise through the bottom of the order. In those days, bullpens weren’t stocked with arms throwing 95-mph with wicked breaking stuff.
The nerds are ruining the game. They ruin everything.
Yeah, like morphing a perfectly useful rotary phone into a hand-held rectangle capable of taking pictures, playing and recording videos, not to mention serving as a gateway to the Internet.
Those freaking nerds, who do they think they are?
The Rays are doing what is necessary to win, with analytics guiding their endeavor. There is nothing wrong with that. MLB isn’t the WWE where the E stands for entertainment. Kevin Cash’s job is not to be entertaining; it’s to win baseball games. If a computer printout aids pitching moves, lineup changes and defensive positioning, he’d be making a mistake to not heed the directions.
Things change and evolve. Instead of complaining, learn to understand the reasons. Doing so usually leads to appreciation of the brave new world, not condemnation.
The problem is this takes effort. The lazy way is so much easier.
The media would rather wax poetic about when they were growing up. The younger generation prefers to fire up all the wireless rectangles the nerds invented.
It really is unfortunate because the impetus behind Tampa Bay’s innovation, along with other organizations is enlightening, and fascinating. It’s too bad the playoff announcers aren’t explaining the reasons behind the innovation. It’s a shame writers are crying in their oatmeal instead of edifying readers.
But then, educating the audience requires doing your homework, or relying on others more knowledgeable to disseminate the information.
At some point, there simply must be a generational transition with analytics respected and not chastised. Instead of being considered innovative, it will be obvious.
To be fair, the paradigm shift is underway. My fear is I won’t be around when it’s commonplace and not alternative.
Still, that’s my ray of hope. Understand and appreciate evolution; don’t categorically dismiss it as destructive.
Something to note is some juxtapose the Rays approach to the league-wide trend of fewer balls being put in play. To be fair, the two overlap since many of Tampa Bay’s methods work because of the current landscape, but they aren’t to blame for them.
More strikeouts, more homers and fewer balls in play are independent of what Tampa Bay has done. That said. To blindly label the trend as ruining the game without comprehending why this is more conducive to winning is another example of laziness.
But that’s a rant for another day.
Go Rays!
A couple weeks ago, the Tout Wars board (Ron Shandler, Peter Kreutzer, Brian Walton, Jeff Erickson and yours truly) decided to shift Tout Wars weekend in Manhattan to an online affair. The four auctions scheduled for the weekend of March 14 and 15 were conducted in the Fantrax auction rooms, at the times originally scheduled.
To be honest, the determination to cancel the live festivities was easy. It became apparent asking the Touts to travel, perhaps at conflict with their loved ones was unfair. Less than 24 hours later, the decision proved prescient as it was obvious the well-being of everyone would be at risk.
The decision to hold the auctions as scheduled or postpone was more difficult. Admittedly, part of opting for “The show must go on.” was SiriusXM’s commitment to broadcast the drafts remotely. That said, the larger reason was when plans for the (hopeful) commencement of the 2020 campaign are announced, everyone will be scrambling in both their personal and professional lives. A major objective of Tout Wars is getting out if front of most drafts and auctions, showcasing possible strategies and helping to establish the market. With this off the table if we postponed, the board concluded it’s best to hold the auctions as scheduled, perhaps even offering an escape for what will no doubt be a long ordeal.
With that as a backdrop, I participated in the National League only auction. I’ll be honest, since winning the league in 2016, I’ve been embarrassed with my poor showings. Humbly, I’m adept at patience and money management. Recently, I’ve taken this too far, eschewing the top tiers, both hitting and pitching. I’d make some purchases in the mid to high twenties, but most were in the teens where in my mind, I was cleaning up. It wasn’t working.
The odd thing is it hasn’t always been this way. I’ve been aggressive at the top, though not with the elite. For years, my plan began with three players for $100, usually manifesting with three players costing around $35.
Before delving into specifics, here is my general approach. I sit down at the table with a roadmap, allotting a target price for each of the 23 roster spots (14 hitters, nine pitchers). As the roster is built, budget is moved from or added to the spots, as dictated via the buys. I use a tiered method of bookkeeping, constantly making sure there are ample players left to occupy the highest priced open slots. If it’s clear there isn’t anyone worthy of the top spot, budget is redistributed, lowering the top target while increasing some lower ones. For those interested, this procedure is detailed in the Platinum Download as part of the Z Files.
The initial plan was for the first three spots to be $35, $35, $30 with the mindset to spend up to $39 if warranted. However, after looking at the inventory, identifying ample players most likely to populate those spots was tough. Ergo, I swerved to four players for $110. In addition, since I knew I wouldn’t be paying for an ace starter, a bit more budget was dedicated to pitching than what was expected for the league in aggregate. Traditionally, NL Tout Wars spends around 69% of the budget on bats. My roadmap was $175 hitting, $85 for arms, a 67/33 split.
Here is what I took into the auction and how I ended up filling each line.
Target | Player (Price paid) |
35 | Starling Marte (30) |
30 | Charlie Blackmon (28) |
25 | J.T. Realmuto (24) |
20 | Marcell Ozuna (24) |
20 | Kole Calhoun (14) |
15 | Starlin Castro (13) |
12 | Jon Berti (12) |
5 | Asdrubal Cabrera (7) |
5 | Corey Dickerson (7) |
3 | Colin Moran (3) |
2 | Jake Lamb (2) |
1 | Tim Locostro (1) |
1 | Dom Nunez (1) |
1 | Jason Kipnis (1) |
20 | Brandon Woodruff (21) |
15 | Sonny Gray (19) |
15 | Kirby Yates (18) |
15 | Carlos Martinez (13) |
8 | Adrian Houser (8) |
5 | Anthony DeSclafani (7) |
5 | Brandon Kintzler (5) |
1 | Merrill Kelly (1) |
1 | Kevin Ginkel (1) |
Cal Quantrill (res) | |
Ryon Healy (res) | |
Brock Holt (res) | |
Daniel Ponce de leon (res) |
Link to all the Tout Wars Auctions and Drafts
The prices for starting pitching remained elevated and since I was devoid of an ace, hitting the middle hard was necessary. In addition, Yates was a few bucks over the target price for a closer but was too good a deal to ignore. The result was $167 to hitting and $93 to pitching, a 64/36 split.
Even with the game plan to be more aggressive than the past few seasons, a $30 Marte was the top buy. Even so, $106 was spent on four batters, just $4 below the target.
The budget required to supplement pitching emanated in part from the $4 saved above along with funneling some from the $20 and $15 hitting lines. This is exactly the area I usually thrive, but the redistribution was needed. As it turned out, it was fortuitous as there weren’t a lot of perceived good buys in that range. The auction had a strange feel, which was shared by those in the NL LABR auction earlier in the month. The spending of both NL auctions didn’t level off until very late, reducing the earlier “bargains”, confining them to the end game. On my end, this enabled the purchasing of Cabrera and Dickerson, a couple of guys I had priced into the mid-teens.
Despite spending less than intended on hitting, including an expensive catcher, I’m pleased with the offense. It needs Berti to come through along with Locostro chipping in some bags, but I like the balance and flexibility with several multi-eligibility players. This will facilitate upgrading Lamb, Kipnis, Locostro and possibly Moran.
Pitching may not appear to be strong, but I’m high on Woodruff, Gray, DeSclafani and Houser, though I wish they weren’t centralized in two of the best hitting venues in the Senior Circuit. Martinez continues to get a discount, one which I’m happy to accept.
With respect to saves, Josh Hader sold for $23 so the expectation was Yates would cost at least $20. I had no issue taking him to $18, but that was likely my max. When he sold for that number, I was giddy, knowing lesser closers would fall in the $14-$16 range and I’d much rather spend the extra on Yates. As it turned out, Kenley Jansen and Edwin Diaz sold for $16 with Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel drawing $14 bids. Yates and Kintzler cost $23. It’ll be interesting to see how that compares to Archie Bradley ($12) and Giovanny Gallegos ($11), selling for the same $23.
Before I go, Tout Wars weekend included one of the proudest moments of my professional career as I was the recipient of the first Lawr Michaels Zen and Now award. This was via peer nomination by my Tout Wars colleagues, making it extra special. Giving a peek behind the fourth wall, I was informed of the honor a little before the official announcement on SiriusXM, availing just enough time to compose myself and try to come up with something to say. As I said on the air, especially in the current trying time, it’s heartening knowing while I may be the first, there’s a litany of other worthwhile Zen and Now recipients, carrying on Lawr’s memory and spirit for decades to come.
Tuesday night I participated in Tout Wars Mixed Draft League. This is a 15-team 5X5 league with OBP instead of BAvg where you draft your 23 starters and then get six reserve picks. I drew the ninth pick so let’s see how I fared and what happened at this draft table of fantasy industry veterans that might help you in upcoming drafts.
The draft started normally with the usual suspects – Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, and Mookie Betts taken off the board. One of the first-round questions in a fifteen team is when would the top pitchers get drafted? In this draft it was 1.07 when Gerrit Cole was taken. Then we had the middle infield run as Trea Turner was taken at 1.08, I selected Fransisco Lindor, and Trevor Story followed. Back to the elite starting pitchers, Jacob deGrom went at 1.11, hardly a surprise. But after Noland Arenado was drafted the end of the first round was Walker Buehler (surprisingly ahead of), Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer.
At my second pick I had to choose whether to take the best pitcher available (Jack Flaherty) or add another big bat and hope I would see either Stephen Strasburg or Clayton Kershaw (yes, I think he is back this year and 200 innings from him would be huge) would make it back to me in the third round. So, I took Mets first baseman Pete Alonso hoping for 40 home runs in his second season (I doubt he hits another fifty in his sophomore season). No such luck as the Cole owner doubled up with Shane Bieber and the Betts owner took Flaherty at 2.10. Strasburg went with the last pick in the second round and teams two, three, and four took Mike Clevinger, Patrick Corbin, and Kershaw in the order. I chose Charlie Morton at 3.09 over Zach Greinke.
Blake Snell was the only other pitcher taken in the third round but the fourth round saw Yu Darvish, Chris Paddack, Luis Castillo, Chris Sale, and Aaron Nola get selected. So through four rounds every team had drafted one starting pitcher and three teams had taken two. This is definitely an increase or this group and more closely resembles and NFBC draft. The two surprises for me were the injured Clevinger being drafted in the third round and Sale being drafted in the fourth. Sale was taken with a significant discount, but with him seeking a third opinion on his left elbow is too much of a risk a team’s “ace”.
Here are a few other draft picks that you may be interested in:
Here is a recap of my draft
1.09 Francisco Lindor
2.07 Pete Alonso
3.09 Charlie Morton
4.07 Cavan Biggio
5.09 Ramon Laureano
6.07 Mike Soroka
7.09 Gary Sanchez
8.07 Liam Hendriks
9.09 Justin Turner
10.07 Mike Minor
11.09 Adam Eaton
12.07 Jorge Polanco
13.09 Masahiro Tanaka
14.08 Justin Upton
15.09 Eric Thames
16.07 Kole Calhoun
17.09 Ryan Yarbrough
18.07 Alex Verdugo
19.09 Kurt Suzuki
20.07 Dakota Hudson
21.09 Dallas Keuchel
22.07 Anibal Sanchez
23,09 Jesus Aguilar
24.07 James Karinchak
25.09 Jose Martinez
26.07 Jordan Hicks (IL)
27.09 Carl Edwards Jr.
28.07 Jose Peraza
29.09 Domingo German (S)
The Hicks and German picks were made because this league will have its first FAAB run right before the season starts when I can “DL” them and add two more reserves.
An interesting draft to be sure. As with most teams, the fate of this squad will be dependent on how the pitching ends up and in vigorous pursuit of free agent players to help either specific category shortages or replace players who might be injured or not performing. I certainly have enough power and a strong OBP. Steals may need Peraza running for the Red Sox. Saves will need either Edwards to break out of the committee in Seattle; Karinchak succeeding Brad Hand if he is traded; or finding some on the free agent list – one reason I created two slots to be replaced.
Always glad to answer questions about my picks or this draft in the Subscriber Forum.