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Friday, March 29, 2024

Okay, either you need to think of warmer things because it is freezing in your part of the world or you are suddenly without your fantasy football team(s) to occupy your gaming/strategy cells or you just looked at a calendar for the new year and realized spring training games start next month and 2011 fantasy baseball drafts will soon be knocking. So it is time to start your draft prep and you want projections or a draft list or…..

Well we will eventually get to those lists, but first we need to look back and remember what we learned from 2010 to make us better drafters in 2011.  So let’s start by taking a look at the consensus first round for 15 team mixed leagues using the “standard” 5X5 scoring categories from last spring:

1 – Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis
2 - Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida
3 – Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NY Yankees
4 – Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee
5 - Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia
6– Matt Kemp, OF, LA Dodgers
7 – Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
8 – Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay
9 – Mark Teixeira, 1B, NY Yankees
10 – Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
11 – Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
12 – Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia
13 – Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
14 – Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay
15 – David Wright, 3B, NY Mets

This data is from twenty six drafts for the National Fantasy Baseball Championships last March, and was likely the same for the World Championships of Fantasy Baseball or most mixed league drafts you did or might have seen last year.

So how did the first round picks perform in 2010? That should be one of the first things you want to make sure you have in your drafting memory cells. Now, write down your list of how valuable those fifteen players ACTUALLY were last year –the order is more important than the actual dollars earned but you are welcome to try both.

Really for maximum benefit you should stop and do the exercise and then read on……

So how did those players perform relative to their draft position? Next to the consensus list above are the dollars each player actually earned for that league format last year.

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis $42
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida $29
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NY Yankees $22
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee $30
Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia $13 (injured)
Matt Kemp, OF, LA Dodgers $20
Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee $19
Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay $27
Mark Teixeira, 1B, NY Yankees $23
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit $39
Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota $22
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia $23
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado $27 (injured but still almost earned enough)
Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay $39
David Wright, 3B, NY Mets $28

 

If we say we want to get at least thirty dollars of value from players we use our first pick on, we can see that injury aside, that only about half of the players drafted in the first round earned their keep.

We can never predict injuries just as breakout seasons are just as unpredictable but hopefully we can see them coming, not just when they will arrive.

So who were the top fifteen performing hitters last year?

$46 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado
$42 Albert Pujols, 1B, St.Louis
$40 Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati
$39 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
$39 Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay
$37 Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas
$37 Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto
$32 Robinson Cano, 2B, NY Yankees
$32 Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
$30 Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee
$30 Matt Holliday, OF, St.Louis
$29 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida
$28 Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox
$28 David Wright, 3B, NY Mets
$28 Adrian Beltre, 3B, Boston

Hamilton is a very talented player that slipped several rounds last year for very valid injury concerns. Even last year as the AL MVP he missed a month but was still that valuable to fantasy teams and the Rangers.

While many expected Gonzalez to increase his $26 value from 2009, nobody drafted him in the first three rounds. Bautista’s season had no predictable basis – in 2009 he wasn’t even a full time player.

Meanwhile Cano, Holliday, and Votto were all drafted in the second round last year so their value was solid and not as surprising.{jcomments on}

In defining your draft plan for 2011 should you take last year’s most valuable players and hope for a repeat or move a few players up in your ranking? We will take a look at that in the next entry in The Captain’s Log.