NL Tout Wars: Fears for Tears

A couple weeks ago, the Tout Wars board (Ron Shandler, Peter Kreutzer, Brian Walton, Jeff Erickson and yours truly) decided to shift Tout Wars weekend in Manhattan to an online affair. The four auctions scheduled for the weekend of March 14 and 15 were conducted in the Fantrax auction rooms, at the times originally scheduled.

To be honest, the determination to cancel the live festivities was easy. It became apparent asking the Touts to travel, perhaps at conflict with their loved ones was unfair. Less than 24 hours later, the decision proved prescient as it was obvious the well-being of everyone would be at risk.

The decision to hold the auctions as scheduled or postpone was more difficult. Admittedly, part of opting for “The show must go on.” was SiriusXM’s commitment to broadcast the drafts remotely. That said, the larger reason was when plans for the (hopeful) commencement of the 2020 campaign are announced, everyone will be scrambling in both their personal and professional lives. A major objective of Tout Wars is getting out if front of most drafts and auctions, showcasing possible strategies and helping to establish the market. With this off the table if we postponed, the board concluded it’s best to hold the auctions as scheduled, perhaps even offering an escape for what will no doubt be a long ordeal.

With that as a backdrop, I participated in the National League only auction. I’ll be honest, since winning the league in 2016, I’ve been embarrassed with my poor showings. Humbly, I’m adept at patience and money management. Recently, I’ve taken this too far, eschewing the top tiers, both hitting and pitching. I’d make some purchases in the mid to high twenties, but most were in the teens where in my mind, I was cleaning up. It wasn’t working.

The odd thing is it hasn’t always been this way. I’ve been aggressive at the top, though not with the elite. For years, my plan began with three players for $100, usually manifesting with three players costing around $35.

Before delving into specifics, here is my general approach. I sit down at the table with a roadmap, allotting a target price for each of the 23 roster spots (14 hitters, nine pitchers). As the roster is built, budget is moved from or added to the spots, as dictated via the buys. I use a tiered method of bookkeeping, constantly making sure there are ample players left to occupy the highest priced open slots. If it’s clear there isn’t anyone worthy of the top spot, budget is redistributed, lowering the top target while increasing some lower ones. For those interested, this procedure is detailed in the Platinum Download as part of the Z Files.

The initial plan was for the first three spots to be $35, $35, $30 with the mindset to spend up to $39 if warranted. However, after looking at the inventory, identifying ample players most likely to populate those spots was tough. Ergo, I swerved to four players for $110. In addition, since I knew I wouldn’t be paying for an ace starter, a bit more budget was dedicated to pitching than what was expected for the league in aggregate. Traditionally, NL Tout Wars spends around 69% of the budget on bats. My roadmap was $175 hitting, $85 for arms, a 67/33 split.

Here is what I took into the auction and how I ended up filling each line.

Link to all the Tout Wars Auctions and Drafts

The prices for starting pitching remained elevated and since I was devoid of an ace, hitting the middle hard was necessary. In addition, Yates was a few bucks over the target price for a closer but was too good a deal to ignore. The result was $167 to hitting and $93 to pitching, a 64/36 split.

Even with the game plan to be more aggressive than the past few seasons, a $30 Marte was the top buy. Even so, $106 was spent on four batters, just $4 below the target.

The budget required to supplement pitching emanated in part from the $4 saved above along with funneling some from the $20 and $15 hitting lines. This is exactly the area I usually thrive, but the redistribution was needed. As it turned out, it was fortuitous as there weren’t a lot of perceived good buys in that range. The auction had a strange feel, which was shared by those in the NL LABR auction earlier in the month. The spending of both NL auctions didn’t level off until very late, reducing the earlier “bargains”, confining them to the end game. On my end, this enabled the purchasing of Cabrera and Dickerson, a couple of guys I had priced into the mid-teens.

Despite spending less than intended on hitting, including an expensive catcher, I’m pleased with the offense. It needs Berti to come through along with Locostro chipping in some bags, but I like the balance and flexibility with several multi-eligibility players. This will facilitate upgrading Lamb, Kipnis, Locostro and possibly Moran.

Pitching may not appear to be strong, but I’m high on Woodruff, Gray, DeSclafani and Houser, though I wish they weren’t centralized in two of the best hitting venues in the Senior Circuit. Martinez continues to get a discount, one which I’m happy to accept.

With respect to saves, Josh Hader sold for $23 so the expectation was Yates would cost at least $20. I had no issue taking him to $18, but that was likely my max. When he sold for that number, I was giddy, knowing lesser closers would fall in the $14-$16 range and I’d much rather spend the extra on Yates. As it turned out, Kenley Jansen and Edwin Diaz sold for $16 with Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel drawing $14 bids. Yates and Kintzler cost $23. It’ll be interesting to see how that compares to Archie Bradley ($12) and Giovanny Gallegos ($11), selling for the same $23.

Before I go, Tout Wars weekend included one of the proudest moments of my professional career as I was the recipient of the first Lawr Michaels Zen and Now award. This was via peer nomination by my Tout Wars colleagues, making it extra special. Giving a peek behind the fourth wall, I was informed of the honor a little before the official announcement on SiriusXM, availing just enough time to compose myself and try to come up with something to say. As I said on the air, especially in the current trying time, it’s heartening knowing while I may be the first, there’s a litany of other worthwhile Zen and Now recipients, carrying on Lawr’s memory and spirit for decades to come.