The defense of my 2019 The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational overall title has begun, and according to some, I’m already mathematically eliminated. From the Lucky-13 hole, I went off-book, at least according to ADP and chose Starling Marte. Here’s why.
Most importantly, I care far more about my rankings than ADP (average draft position). If there was a chance Marte would have made it to me in Round 3, I may have played ADP chicken. However, he’s in my Top-10 and was my highest rated player still on the board.
It’s fair to ask why not wait until Round 2? Good question. The next player on my list was J.D. Martinez, another guy with a later ADP, but not late enough to be around in Round 3. However, I have Martinez and Freddie Freeman essentially ranked the same, so I preferred to lock in Marte and take whichever was left for me in the second, expecting Freeman to be gone. As it turned out, Freeman was available, so I opted for the Braves first baseman, feeling he was a tad safer than Martinez.
Back to Marte and why he’s ranked so high for me. With my first-round pick, I’m not looking for upside; I want to build a foundation of stats I can write in. Marte has a solid track record with a power-speed base. Plugging it into my formula, he lands Top-10. That said, rankings aren’t just an ordering of “value”. I consider the reliability and team construction element and Marte fit what I want to do.
Some point to Marte’s durability as a first rounder. Yes, he’s missed time the last two seasons, but my formulaic rank assumes just 600 plate appearances, the average of the previous two campaigns. Remember he was suspended for 80 games in 2017, so the 77 games total is misleading. Last year, Marte missed time early after colliding with teammate Erik Gonzalez. In September, he hurt his wrist bracing a fall. While not flukes, neither are chronic nor involved his legs, relevant for someone reliant on speed. If Marte always missed time with a groin or hamstring issue, that would be different.
The other aspect of only expecting 600 PA is someone can backfill the roster spot with free loot. When you draft or purchase a player, you’re paying for the roster spot, not the player. If Marte misses time, especially with TGFBI/NFBC rules, hitters can be moved in and out of the lineup twice a week so I’m paying for Marte’s stats and perhaps getting a few transaction periods of someone else. If Marte doesn’t get hurt, the free loot is from him, so there’s some organic upside from playing time.
Marte is on the other side of 30 years old when speed sometimes wanes, but he’s still running with 92nd percentile sprint speed, so even if he loses a little this season, there’s plenty left to pilfer some bags. I’m not concerned about going to a new team. You don’t trade for Marte and tell him not to run. The best skippers manage to their player’s strength.
One of the biggest knocks on Marte is the ability to maintain 20-something homers, citing a big ground ball tilt and a low average exit velocity. Obviously, I have no counter for the high ground ball number, except it helps him in the batting average department. However, I have a unique perspective on the average exit velocity argument. Marte’s overall average exit velocity is just 23rd percentile but his mark on fly balls is above average. There’s something about Marte’s swing mechanics where he hits fly balls with more authority and grounders with less, likely due to an uppercut pathway at contact. The plethora of grounders could be he doesn’t center the ball often, instead topping it. But, when he does center it, the resultant fly balls are hit with more authority, thus Marte can maintain an elevated HR/FB mark.
From a venue point of view, Marte’s power should improve. The humidor has calmed Chase Field down, but it’s still 10% more favorable for righty power than PNC Park, plus Marte will visit Coors Field for three series. Maybe this is reaching too far to justify the pick, but Phoenix is at one of the higher elevations so pitched balls don’t move as much. Maybe this helps Marte center more contact, lofting it instead of banging it into the turf.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.