Mastersball, fantasy baseball, scouting, analysis, projections

The first time I wrote this piece back in May, I was dead last, had what looked to be zero power, and I was sure that the inability to make trades would doom any legit shot at respectability. I harped on and on about the importance of getting power in the draft. I even tossed out the (now standard) notion that managing the wire for pitching was my only hope going forward.

My how things have changed! Not that I’m in contention or anything, but what I find truly shocking, standing here from my newly claimed perch in the 11^th position, is how much power I put up in the first half. In fact, my efforts to manage my pitching staff repeatedly blew up in my face (Carlos Zambrano anyone?). At just past the halfway point in the season, I have 46 hitting points against a ridiculously laughable 9.5 points in pitching. I managed 11 points in each of the R, HR, and RBI categories, 10 points in batting average and a weak three points in stolen bases. The question I’m now facing is, given the incredibly unlikely possibility of gaining any major ground in the pitching categories, how do I at least manage them so as to avoid losing any more points there? As you’ll see later, the plan to pick up hitting points is pretty much a no-brainer, as there are multiple categories with multi-owner bottlenecks going on. If my guys keep hitting, I can really only tweak two or three slots based on matchups and injury. But the pitching, that’s going to take some work.

My team ERA is a whopping 4.49, good for one point. Now I haven’t researched how much ground you can make up in ratios over time, but for the sake of putting a plan together, let’s say I should realistically target something as close to 4.00 as possible.  Between me and the guy in 11^th with a 4.03 ERA are five potential points. Given the no trade rule in NFBC play, strategies designed around trading to make your competitors lose points isn’t an option. So realistically I need the pitching staffs on the four teams above me to tank while my guys, ideally, pitch out of their heads from here on out. Of course that is not very likely, nor is it a particularly controllable plan of attack. I could load up on middle relievers (which I’ve already done) and watch them suddenly blow up one month (Tyler Clippard - You’re killing me lately!). As of today I have Matt Belisle, Sean Marshall, and J.J. Putz holding down three spots, Brad Lidge and Carlos Marmol closing in two, and Josh Beckett, Mike Pelfrey, Javy Vazquez, and Jeremy Bonderman establishing the standard for mediocrity to fill out the staff. Erik Bedard, Rich Harden and Bud Norris wallow on my bench waiting to be healthy/effective.  The WHIP category looks much the same as ERA, so I won’t say more on that or than that it’s another uphill battle. Of course the good news is that I can’t lose any points in either category. Did I mention that I named the team Sonofapitch?

Wins and saves are categories where I could legitimately pick up two to four points each. One of the reasons I picked up Clippard, Marshall and Putz was that each were pitching extremely well for teams that have found themselves in plenty of close games. I know its chasing wins, but given the MASH unit I have for a pitching staff, it’s at least a plausibly legitimate gamble. Sounds like a sure bet to me! I really don’t see myself gaining any more than a point in strikeouts given my starters, but if Bedard and Harden return marginally effective, I could be moderately surprised.

Since I can’t lose points in the ratios, saves (only one guy behind me with half the saves), or strikeouts, it looks like the best plan is to continue to deploy stud middle relievers who tend to get vulture wins or saves, while keeping an eye out for effective starters on the wire.

Now for the fun stuff! Somehow I managed to rack up 140 HR over the first half, 26 behind the leader, but only 10 behind the guy in second. Catching him would give me a three point jump. I have 578 RBI, good for 11 points, but I can realistically only hope to gain two points there where I would need a 50 RBI jump to catch the guy in second. Now the two guys sitting in the 580s are doable. Runs looks much like RBI… after a block of two guys ahead, I’m pretty much maxed out. The BA category is a train wreck. There are at least seven guys hovering around my .270, so that cat could go either way. Finally, in the stolen bases category, I am at the bottom of a bunch of owners all sitting somewhere between 70 and 85 swipes. I’m keeping my eye out for a speedster, but with Scott Podsednik and a bunch of double digit steals guys on the roster, I could very well gain some ground there with the players I have.

Mike Napoli, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, Adam LaRoche, Jason Kubel, Juan Rivera, Delmon Young and Michael Young are my best bets for power going forward. In the last week I picked up Dayan Viciedo to plug in at CI until LaRoche remembers he’s a second half player. I also have Justin Smoak who lost value moving to Seattle, but offered me some hope by hitting two bombs over the last week.  With the power comes production in three categories. Needless to say, I’m very excited to see I totally underestimated that aspect of my squad back in May.

I’m not going to catch up to Fred Zinke up at the top of the standings. But climbing out of dead last up to 11^th, with a chance at finishing in the top 10 by the end of the year will definitely make my first NFBC experience a much more enjoyable one. If nothing else, I can at least try to finish ahead of Team Ravitz.