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Monday 18th Dec 2017

Since I have been playing Fantasy ball, I have noticed how dismissive a lot of folks seem to be about banging 20 homers. Baseball is a hard game, and I have always felt 20 big league smackers indicates a pretty good season for anyone.

As it was, I was watching the Cubs on Thursday when they clobbered six homers, in a losing cause no less. I noticed that the team now has a chance for six guys with 20 or more big flies, which is a lot. It reminded me of the 1977 Dodgers who had Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Reggie Smith and Dusty Baker all with 30 homers, indicating a pretty good hitting team. 

The Cubs have Anthony Rizzo (28), Kris Bryant (23), Willson Contreras (21) and Kyle Schwarber (20), along with Javier Baez (19) and Ian Happ (17), who should also top the 20-HR mark.

In deference to that, I began to wonder if the number of home runs this year really was crazy high, so I looked it up and discovered that as of Wednesday night, 67 major leaguers had hit at least 20, and since Schwarber banged his on Thursday, that means at least 68. So, that set me wondering again, so I looked back since the turn of the Century as they say to see how this year stacks up.

And, since this season is pretty much exactly three-quarters done, that means roughly 40 games left, and if we calculate 3.5 at-bats for all the home run hitters over those games, that adds 140 at-bats for the average everyday player. Remember that I am not a math guy, but according to Fangraphs, there have been 123,265 Major League at-bats this year and 4568 homers, meaning on average a home run was hit every 27 at-bats.

So, 140 divided by 27 gives us another projected five dingers for the year, though I will acknowledge that is likely a conservative number for it factors in Alcides Escobar's power along with Giancarlo Stanton, and there are more guys closer to Alcides than Giancarlo.

Either way, I looked at the number of players who have hit 15 this year (there are 54) thus far and added five to them and compared this year's projected totals to some other dates since Y2K came to tease us, and this is what I found.

Year   #20 Home Run Guys  #30 Home Run Guys  #40 Home Run Guys
 2017  121 29  4
 2016  111 38 8
 2015    64 20 9
 2010    76 18  2
 2005    78 27
 2000   102 47   16

2000, to jog your memories, was the year Sammy Sosa led the Majors with 50, but 16 players--which is a lot--hit 40. And, Andruw Jones hit 51 in 2005, along with Jose Bautista hitting 54 in 2010, but even projecting out 2017 and adding in those five extra homers, this year will not come close to the 16 40-homer guys of 2000.

As it happens, I was on Patrick Davitt's BBHQ Podcast today, and the very subject came up, and Patrick's take on the power boost is that the real power hitters, like Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo, are unaffected by whether they hit a 425-foot homer or a 410-foot homer. But, as Patrick astutely pointed out, that 15 feet the ball adds makes it so that Yonder Alonso and surprises like Chris Taylor and Tim Beckham get four bases and the accouterments for what used to be a warning track fly out.

And, I personally think, especially looking at these numbers, Patrick is dead on correct.

So, the question is how do I plan towards next season with the proliferation of guys who have between say 15-25 homers and determine what their value is?

Well, thinking ahead, my approach is that there will be a plethora of them I will indeed not think so much about as a power source but rather supporting acts scoring runs and ideally helping the counting stats. But I think the group of players we draft in rounds 10-17 or purchase for between $8-$13 in a single league draft become targets more for steals and on-base percentage and batting average while we focus on the true power guys in the early rounds.

And that means pitching becomes a lot more ad hoc, meaning I will focus on a couple of closers and an ace and otherwise think about building my rotation out of the dregs and free agent pool.

That might not sound like much, but for me it will be way different from the past few seasons. Because you know, you can never plot too early.

Remember you can always reach me @lawrmichaels.


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