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Thursday 19th Oct 2017

It is so easy to fall in love with prospects, and even more so when those prospects produce numbers that validate our devotion.

Sometimes, however, the stats don't tell everything.

Seven innings. Three hits. One run. Two walks. Three whiffs. A win.

Now, those stats look great, and that was indeed the pitching line that Jake Arrieta produced yesterday, making a lot of owners and his Baltimore management happy.

But, I was there, and I scored the game, pitch-by-pitch, and I can tell you that while Arrieta did not pitch poorly, he did not pitch nearly as well as the stat line indicates.

At least five balls where hit very hard. They were hit right at defenders, who made great plays and thus kept threats from initiating.

And, you can indeed say, "that is baseball," because it is. The defense can pick up a pitcher, just like a pitcher can pick up the offense, or the offense pick up the team.

But, Arrieta never got into any kind of rhythm or groove, and that is one thing that stands out game-to-game when you score, as the person scoring tends to fall into the slip stream of that ryhthm.

Mind you, it was not just me who got that sense. My back-up friend, Hank Widmar noticed the same thing, as did the OS and the fellow who scores for STATS, Inc.

Now, I am not knocking Arrieta, or suggesting he does not have a bright future, but, I am warning that if you pick him up, or activated him from your ulta reserves because you think he has arrived, that might be premature.

I think he has some major knocks ahead of him, for better or worse, so being patient might be a better long term path if Arrieta is on your roster and you can afford to hide him.


0 #2 Lawr Michaels 2010-06-18 15:08
good question perry.

one thing i am guessing we have all noticed is that often newbies to the show do well because there is no book on the player.

i think that often suggests not just why pitchers do well their first starts, but why they suddenly hit the wall (or eventually the sophomore jinx).

so, i do think if there is a window to take advantage of a guy like arrieta, that would be the time.

and, well, interleague play i think puts more of the advantage to the pitcher, because no book and a different league.

arreita did take care of the giants without being dominant, for example. but, like i said, he was hit hard for a three hitter, and the first hit he allowed was a monster shot to sandoval, maybe 450 feet to straight away center.

he was dodging bullets, but, much of that could be because SF had no book.
0 #1 Perry Van Hook 2010-06-17 16:18
Well interesting points Zenmaster because I have Arrieta "on the farm" in two separate leagues, and have been wrestling with activating him since :winkwink: before his call up (okay lol two days before his callup)

The first league is a twelve team AL three year keeper league. We are not in contention so theoretically would be better served by keeping him in the minors for the entire year....unless we thought we might have a shot at a late run for 2nd place and thus $. That premature activation would also get us an minor league pick next year which currently we would not have.

The second league is more and less interesting. I will have to activate or reserve him if he stays up for thirty days and there is no reason to think he won't. But it will squeeze me for a roster spot so the question is really when and then I can play/reserve him on a week to week basis. I think his two start week next league with Interleague opponents is playable. What say you?

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