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Thursday 23rd Nov 2017

Mock draft results are fine resource tools. But there's nothing like the real thing. Many owners, especially industry owners, use mocks to try out different strategies, assembling rosters that they wouldn't even think of assembling under normal circumstances. While this approach works well if the goal is to promote discussion, it might not be helpful for those studying these results in hopes of getting an idea as to how their actual drafts will play out. 

This is why the FSTA draft results can be quite useful, as the annual FSTA draft is usually the first prominent non-keeper industry league draft of the industry league draft season. On Monday night, representatives from 13 fantasy baseball media outlets (Todd and Lawr took the reigns of Team Mastersball) gathered in Nashville to fill their 2017 FSTA league rosters. You can check out the complete draft grid here and be sure to read Todd's analysis in the Platinum section as well as Lawr's recap

Here are some of the picks from the first five rounds that really got me thinking:

A.J. Pollock (Round 3, Pick 3 to Mastersball) - To be honest, I wasn't all that surprised by this one considering Todd's affinity for Pollock. The Diamondbacks outfielder was limited to just 41 at-bats last year as a fractured elbow delayed his 2016 debut until late-August before a groin injury ended his season a couple weeks later. Pollock was a legitimate first-rounder heading into 2016 drafts, so although he does carry some injury risk, as an elite five-category contributor, he offers plenty of profit potential as a third-round pick, though I expected the discount to be steeper. 

Trevor Story (Round 3, Pick 12 to Scout Fantasy) - Clearly, the kid can hit. But is a 97-game big league sample size enough to warrant a top-40 pick, even if that sample size included 27 homers and 72 RBI? Maybe, and he does have Coors Field in his favor. Still, the strikeout rate is a little scary. I need to see more before I can comfortably invest in Story at this level.

Billy Hamilton (Round 4, Pick 1 to Baseball HQ) - The improved OBP is encouraging, so the logical reaction is that his stolen base total is still on the rise. But as I've mentioned many times before, I'm not a believer in a top-heavy strategy when it comes to addressing steals. I'm sure Hamilton owners weren't too happy last year when he missed nearly the entire month of September due to injury. Kyle Seager, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Abreu and Matt Kemp were all available at this point in the draft. Give me one of those guys instead. I'll deal with steals a little later.

Jean Segura (Round 4, Pick 6 to Fantasy Sports Network) - Can Segura steal 33 bases again? Sure. Can he bat .319 again? Probably not. Can he hit 20 homers again? Not a chance. I can confidently say that the new Mariners shortstop will not be a member of any of my fantasy squads this year. Considering his expected price tag, there's simply too much to lose.

Andrew McCutchen (Round 5, Pick 10 to Fantasy Alarm) - Wow. I'm usually risk averse in the early rounds, but McCutchen at #62 overall would have been too tempting to pass up. Maybe the 20-plus stolen base campaigns are a thing of the past, but after struggling mightily for the vast majority of last year, the Pirates centerfielder finished the season strong, launching a combined nine home runs to go along with 34 RBI in August and September. I'm not ready to give up on a 30-year-old who carries such an elite track record, especially at this price.

Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars Champion. Follow him on Twitter @ZachMLB 

Comments   

+1 #2 Todd Zola 2017-01-29 19:17
Quoting Orange Crush78:
I respect the competitors here but this is only slightly better than a mock. You need $ on the line in these drafts to take them serious.


As someone very active in the high stakes arena, this is simply not true. These competitors take the league seriously and want to win just as much without a cash prize. Plus, just because someone pays for a league, that doesn't make their opinion/analysis credible. Everyone can form their own opinion - but to dismiss something like this based on no money involved is a mistake.
Quote
0 #1 Orange Crush78 2017-01-29 16:07
I respect the competitors here but this is only slightly better than a mock. You need $ on the line in these drafts to take them serious.
Quote

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