A new baseball season is indeed upon us, and that means it is Mock City for me, for though I have already participated in a good half-dozen baseball mock drafts, the two-time a week drill of Howard Bender's (@rotobuzzguy) #MockDraftArmy is what really puts me through the paces to make me feel prepared for any type of draft or auction of any format.
So, this past week Howard and his beleaguered minions kicked off the first drafts of the week, and there I was. If you follow along to this virtual space, you will note that last week I provided some thoughts about the value of the mock process and though I will go through some of my thoughts and rosters throughout this pre-season, it will be mostly to reveal what team I wound up with drafting under some obscure parms, like picking at the wheel and grabbing a pitcher with each turn, or some such investigative silliness.
For my first tour of duty, I did get the 12th selection in a 12-team 5x5 mixed format. Since this format affords a fatter free agent pool, I did try to grab homers and strikeouts early, and waited till nearly the end to take closers (remember, if each team takes two closers, that is 24, and there are 30 Big League teams, so you can stall there). But, what did surprise me is just how late some players went, which i will discuss below. Here are the results of #MockDraftArmy #1.
Mock #2 was tougher, with 15 teams, and me drafting in the 11th hole. Again, i tried to focuse on getting one or two dominant starters early but still make sure I had some power and also take care of closers as early as permitted. Here are the results of #MockDraftArmy #2 and a thought about where the same pick identified for the first draft fell when three more teams were gutting the player pool.
Note that both drafts went 25 rounds.
Khris Davis (6.1/5.11): I actually took the Athletics slugger in both leagues, hoping he can at least hit the 30-home run mark. I do like Davis, but I listed him here to contrast with another slugger whose game surprised us last year. Davis was a lot more selective in the second half, for even though his average during the first and second halves were pretty much the same, Davis jumped his OBP from .284 to .332, improving his whiff-to-walk numbers from 87/11 to 79/31.
Adam Duvall (18.1/10.2): Wow, what a drop from Davis to Duvall, huh? I will admit I am dubious of a repeat of 2016, but though the Reds outfielder's pop dropped from 23 homers in the first half to 10 in the second half, his OBP (.306) jumped nearly 20 points and his strikeout-to-walk rate improved from 94/16 to 70/25. Apparently no believers.
Carlos Gomez (19.7/10.9): This guy was first round material between 2012-15, but considered twice as valuable when three more teams were thrown into the mix? The shallow league does not trust the Texas numbers, and the deeper league has to? Hmmmmmmmm.
Dansby Swanson (17.7/12.1): OK, three shortstops here. You figure this out? Swanson is .302-3-17 over 129 total big league at-bats.
Brandon Crawford (22.1/15.13): .259-52-346 over 2681 at-bats coming off a second straight strong season with 84 RBI in each.
Marcus Semien (24.6/14.2): Averaging .246-20-63 with 11 steals over the past two years over 314 games. I mean, both these last guys are under 30 still, so why does a guy with no resume to speak of get picked over them?
J.A. Happ (20.4/20.6): Clearly no one is buying into the Ron Bryant/Storm Davis of 2016. But, two picks later in the deeper draft. Wow.
Chris Carter (23.3/13.5): A ten-round difference is just as weird, as had the first mock been a 23-rounder, Carter would have been a final-round gamble.
Matt Wieters (22.5/15.10): I feel vindicated. Back when Wieters was entering his rookie season, I did a Scoresheet dynasty Mock and Wieters was a second rounder. I commented on how foolish I felt it was to draft an untested player that early, and was largely corrected that I did not know how to assemble a dynasty team. So, I feel vindicated. Kinda. Still, hard to think Mock #1 thought more highly of Wieters than Carter?
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