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Friday 19th Jan 2018

Welcome back to all of us from the Hotpage, as we go into our 21st year of covering baseball with a fantasy bend.

And, to kick off the New Year and our first Hotpage of this cycle, we are indeed releasing the Top 250 Prospects for this year, a list I have indeed been producing for almost as long as we have been posting the Hotpage.

In the past, the Top 250 went deep into prospect-land, looking at level of success relative to age, relative to power skills, relative to strike zone judgement, and came up with players who were usually a few years away, perfect for your Ultra or Dynasty format. Well, I have not changed the format at all, but over the years, the number of prospects coming up, getting a chance, and even making an impact has increased dramatically such that the number of rookies generally debuting these days is nearly double the number who were brought up when I first started playing Fantasy Ball in 1989.

If you tuned into Bed Goes Up a few weeks ago, you will have seen my sneak preview in which I tossed a few names to whet your appetites, but also noted the likes of Trevor Story (#241) and Willson Contreras (#112) might have been far off big league and fantasy rosters 20 years ago, but both players ranked at the number shown last year, and each had my special sleeper highlight.

And, like last year, I give the players, their organization, the player's rating, a brief comment on the player, and again I highlighted players who I think are either a little under the radar, or poised for some instant karma.

In addition to level of play, and age, players are ranked on strikeout-to-walks and also innings pitched, on-base and OPS skill, extra-base hits to hits ranking only play at Low-A and above when the pitcher has hurled 70 innings, or the hitter has batted 200 times over the course of the season.

Of course since age is a significant factor in determining potential success, clearly the better a player is, at a higher level, at a younger age, the better. And, this year, the top handful of picks are indeed youngsters, likely not on a lot of radar units. But, that is the way it goes, for in the past names like Jurickson Profar and Carlos Zambrano have topped the list on the good side, while Cody Buckel was a top banana without "appeal."

One final thought: The list looks at 3000 players, largely between the ages of 20-25, so the difference between the number 15 slot on the list and the number 150 slot is just 1.6, as in #15 (Logan Allen) scored 24.40 points while #150 (Corey Zangari) logged in at 26, meaning there were 135 players mashed in between those two totals. So, if you wonder why Dansby Swanson rated so low (215), "low" is contextual. One final note: all ages are factored upon what the player's age will be on Opening Day.

The Top 250 is indeed free when you subscribe to our Platinum Package, driven by the one and only Lord Zola, and the final list should be up and downloadable in the next 48 hours.

So, here is this year's Top 10.

1) Roniel Raudes (P, Boston, 19): Raudes, who will turn 19 this week, finished a full year in the Sally League last year going 11-6 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, with 104 whiffs across 113.3 frames. The lanky (6'1, 160) Nicaraguan was signed as a 16-year-old.

2) Ozzie Albies (2B, Atlanta, 20): Hit .321-4-33 at Mississippi before advancing to Gwinnett where there was a little struggle (.248-2-20 over 56 games), but Albies did just turn 20 last week, meaning he was just out of 18's-ville when 2016 began. When you add it up, Albies played 138 games, going .298-6-53 with 33 doubles and 30 steals, showing great zone judgement with 52 walks to 96 strikeouts. 

3) Franklin Perez (P, Houston, 19): Perez played a full season at the Midwest League as an 18-year-old, striking out 75 over 66.6 innings, allowing just one homer, going 3-3, 2.84, starting ten games, and earning a save over one of five relief appearances.

4) Kolby Allard (P, Atlanta, 20): Allard began the year in the Appalachian League, then advanced to the Sally League and did 60.3 innings, going 5-3, 3.73 with 62 strikeouts, posting a 1.23 WHIP.

5) Mike Soroka (P, Atlanta, 20): The tall (6'4") Canadian played in Rome with Allard (I suspect we better watch out for the Braves in the future, no?) and went 9-9, 3.02 with 125 whiffs over 143 innings with just three dingers allowed. 

6) Anderson Espinoza (P, San Diego, 19): Espinoza, who doesn't turn 19 until March, split his season between Greenville (5-8, 4.38) and Ft. Wayne (1-3, 4.73), whiffing 100 over 108.3 total innings last year. He is a little raw (1.38 WHIP) but San Diego thought enough of him to swap Drew Pomeranz in exchange.

7) Spencer Adams (P, White Sox, 21): Moved up to Double-A after 107.6 innings in the California League, going a cumulative 10-12, 3.98 over 163 innings with 100 total strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP with just four homers allowed. Not overpowering, but excellent control and is probably Comiskey bound sometime this year.

8) Imani Abdullah (P, Los Angeles, 20): In his first full season, Abdullah went 4-4, 3.61 over 72.6 innings with 59 strikeouts, but just 12 walks, good for a 1.19 WHIP at the Midwest League. He did allow ten dingers, but otherwise pretty stellar numbers for the kid.

9) Ariel Jurado (P, Texas, 21): Went 1-4, 3.30 in the Texas League after going 7-2, 3.86 at High Desert resulting in an 8-6, 3.66 mark over 123 innings with 106 whiffs.

10) Nick Neidert (P, Seattle, 20): Second round pick in 2015, Neidert went 7-3, 2.57 over 91 innings at Clinton with 69 strikeouts to just 13 walks (0.970 WHIP), with just 75 hits allowed.

You can follow me @lawrmichaels.

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