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Friday 28th Apr 2017

In Week 13, we have one of the most productive QB/RB pairs in Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray on a bye and then we have the lowly Browns on a bye. Week 12 was a major DFS disaster for Seahawks backers – Wilson, Rawls, Baldwin, Graham – all turkeys. They can’t possibly have been that bad. How can anyone fade the Lions-Saints this week? Their Vegas total of 53.5 is four points higher than any other game. 

You can try to be cute and ride the Kaepernick train, and maybe it will work. Or you can just pay up for a QB that always seems to post numbers that support the price. Brees at home – check. Roethlisberger at home – check.

QB Drew Brees NO 7600 Has to be under consideration every week
QB Ben Roethlisberger Pit 7400 Every week at home
QB Matthew Stafford Det 7000 Game with Saints has highest Vegas total by a lot
QB Russell Wilson Sea 6300 Big bounce back. Under-owned after last debacle
QB Colin Kaepernick SF 6100 Becoming a trendy pick
QB Eli Manning NYG 5900 Cheap price for productive QB
QB Tyrod Taylor Buf 5700 Getting primary deep threat back in form

Try hard to fit either Johnson or Bell into your lineup. The price is steep, but they deliver every week. There are other attractive cheaper options to pair with them.

RB David Johnson Ari 9500 He has been gold, but now must get 30 to earn value
RB Le'Veon Bell Pit 9200 Same as Johnson, but is always in the play
RB LeSean McCoy Buf 7800 Nice discount off Johnson and Bell
RB Jordan Howard Chi 6900 Start the RB against SF - always
RB Mark Ingram NO 6000 Played like his mind was altered after the concussion
RB Theo Riddick Det 5800 Figures to be heavily involved
RB Carlos Hyde SF 5300 Primary offense for SF when healthy
RB Jeremy Hill Cin 4300 Caught plenty of passes with Gio out

Cheaper receivers continue to post useful numbers and there are plenty of receivers in the $4k range to choose from. Sure they all come with risks, like the QB can forget that the receiver plays on the team (see Shepard and Cooks). But that scenario is unlikely.

 

WR Antonio Brown Pit 9100 Has to be a consideration every week
WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 8500 Will be focused on outperforming Brown
WR Michael Thomas NO 6900 Brees' solid primary target
WR Julian Edelman NE 6800 More looks if Gronk is out
WR Davante Adams GB 6300 From the dog house to the Pro Bowl in one season
WR Golden Tate Det 6200 Figures to be right in the middle of highest scoring game
WR Sammy Watkins Buf 5500 He's back and in GPP play
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 4900 Nice when QB apologizes for forgetting about you
WR Tyler Boyd Cin 4800 8-9 targets for under $5k - I am in
WR Marvin Jones Jr. Det 4400 Falling way out of favor but is so darn cheap
WR Anquan Boldin Det 4100 Boldin, Lee, Wilson, Rogers all in play in this price range

My off-season project is to search for a dependable way to project TE usage. There seems to be little rhyme or reason that leads to a tight end posting a zero or being a hero.

 

TE Jordan Reed Was 6400 Dislike the pick due to injury - was this close to being a dud on turkey day
TE Greg Olsen Car 5100 A nice discount off Reed
TE Eric Ebron Det 3900 These guys do not need much to earn value - but they do tend to disappear
TE Cameron Brate TB 3600 Fitting in nicely as second look for Jameis
TE Vance McDonald SF 2900 Knack for the end zone
TE Ladarius Green Pit 2800 Continues to round into form

There are three defenses that appear to be worth paying for, but on the flip side there are two cheaper options.

 

DST Broncos Den 3900 Premier matchup against turnover-prone Jax
DST Patriots NE 3700 Pats against a rookie QB
DST Seahawks Sea 3500 Neither team is at Super Bowl level
DST Chargers SD 2900 Been sneaky good all season
DST Dolphins Mia 2600 Getting better every week

Count me among the victims of the Seahawks walking the plank last week. This week I want a piece of the Lions-Saints game, but I am going to lean towards the Lions, who should be lower owned.

QB Matthew Stafford Det 7000
RB David Johnson Ari 9500
RB Theo Riddick Det 5800
WR Michael Thomas NO 6900
WR Golden Tate Det 6200
WR Eli Rogers Pit 3900
DST Chargers SD 2900
TE Vance McDonald SF 2900
WR Tyler Boyd Cin 4800
      49900

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