Turkey Day marks the three-quarter mark of the NFL regular season, and while two teams have not yet had their byes (Titans, Browns), we have a full slate for the weekend. It is definitely a week of haves vs. have-nots. The challenge is trying to predict the games that could stay close and generate some back and forth points as opposed to watching a team just grind clock for an entire quarter or half. The Bills, Dolphins and Saints are big home favorites. The Titans, Seahawks and Patriots are big road favorites.
It should be little surprise that most of the recommended quarterbacks this week are from the heavily favored teams. These certainly reflect the safest floor among the quarterbacks. There will be at least one quarterback from the underdog side of these games that piles up big stats playing catch up, but I challenge you to go guess which one.
|QB||Tom Brady||NE||7800||No concern over injury report|
|QB||Marcus Mariota||Ten||7200||At least 17.68 in past seven|
|QB||Drew Brees||NO||7100||Brees big favorite at home|
|QB||Russell Wilson||Sea||6700||Lack of healthy backs leads to more Wilson|
|QB||Eli Manning||NYG||6500||Eli should excel - so why am I too scared to use him?|
|QB||Derek Carr||Oak||6100||Home against a subpar Carolina defense|
Tough week for running backs on the Sunday slate as Lev Bell and Zeke Elliott both play on Thursday. I see minimal options to roster a team that fades David Johnson. After Johnson, there are several players with nice ceilings.
|RB||David Johnson||Ari||8900||Matchup proof|
|RB||DeMarco Murray||Ten||7700||Should have no trouble earning 3x price|
|RB||Jay Ajayi||Mia||7600||Would be at top of the list with healthy offensive line|
|RB||Thomas Rawls||Sea||5700||Ran well in season debut and now has no split|
|RB||Rashad Jennings||NYG||5600||Very good in past two with a great matchup|
|RB||Latavius Murray||Oak||5500||Primary ball carrier with all goal line looks|
|RB||Jeremy Hill||Cin||3900||No Gio - what do the Bengals do?|
Another week with a good mix of “safe” expensive receivers and riskier less-expensive receivers. I would much rather pay up for the points at running back and take my chances with some of the lower end receivers.
|WR||Odell Beckham Jr.||NYG||8800||Solid but unspectacular in recent efforts|
|WR||Julio Jones||Atl||8500||Highest game total on Sunday slate|
|WR||Julian Edelman||NE||6800||Four straight good scores|
|WR||Michael Thomas||NO||6600||Might be hitting rookie wall but in good spot|
|WR||Doug Baldwin||Sea||6400||A lot of Seahawks on the list this week|
|WR||Rishard Matthews||Ten||5800||Been a ball hog recently|
|WR||Sterling Shepard||NYG||5500||Has a knack for touchdowns|
|WR||DeVante Parker||Mia||4700||High-risk, high-reward|
|WR||Marqise Lee||Jax||4000||Surprisingly very good most of the season|
|WR||Tyler Boyd||Cin||4000||Figures to get AJ's targets|
Jordan Reed, Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph and Eric Ebron have all been popular DFS tight ends this season and all are gone from the Sunday slate. Add in the Gronk injury and proceed to throw a dart at the board.
|TE||Greg Olsen||Car||5800||Top TE on the board|
|TE||Jimmy Graham||Sea||5300||Been a top target in the new Seahawks passing game|
|TE||C.J. Fiedorowicz||Hou||3300||Never thought he would be on my list|
|TE||Will Tye||NYG||3000||Does not need to do much at $3k|
|TE||Vance McDonald||SF||3000||Been a TD target lately|
|TE||Austin Hooper||Atl||2800||Tamme officially to IR|
All of the defenses on my list are from the group of heavy favorites except for the Chargers.
|DST||Bills||Buf||3800||Expensive price to pay, but Jax is sloppy with the ball|
|DST||Giants||NYG||3600||Just look at mediocre Steelers D last week|
|DST||Patriots||NE||3400||It's the Jets|
|DST||Dolphins||Mia||3300||Dolphins D has been good recently|
|DST||Chargers||SD||2700||Chargers have been surprisingly good all season|
Last week’s Colts stack with Lev Bell and Rashad Jennings had me dreaming of big money after the first half of the early games, with a score of 106 in the bank. But they all faded badly in the second half and I was left to withstand a Sunday night shootout between the Packers and Redskins just to cash. But it was fun for awhile seeing a 1 next to your name in the standings, even if it was short-lived. This week, we are going with a Seahawks stack on the road against the Bucs. The Bucs have the ability to score and keep the game relatively close for awhile.