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Friday 24th Mar 2017

Turkey Day marks the three-quarter mark of the NFL regular season, and while two teams have not yet had their byes (Titans, Browns), we have a full slate for the weekend. It is definitely a week of haves vs. have-nots. The challenge is trying to predict the games that could stay close and generate some back and forth points as opposed to watching a team just grind clock for an entire quarter or half. The Bills, Dolphins and Saints are big home favorites. The Titans, Seahawks and Patriots are big road favorites. 

It should be little surprise that most of the recommended quarterbacks this week are from the heavily favored teams. These certainly reflect the safest floor among the quarterbacks. There will be at least one quarterback from the underdog side of these games that piles up big stats playing catch up, but I challenge you to go guess which one.

QB Tom Brady NE 7800 No concern over injury report
QB Marcus Mariota Ten 7200 At least 17.68 in past seven
QB Drew Brees NO 7100 Brees big favorite at home
QB Russell Wilson Sea 6700 Lack of healthy backs leads to more Wilson
QB Eli Manning NYG 6500 Eli should excel - so why am I too scared to use him?
QB Derek Carr Oak 6100 Home against a subpar Carolina defense

Tough week for running backs on the Sunday slate as Lev Bell and Zeke Elliott both play on Thursday. I see minimal options to roster a team that fades David Johnson. After Johnson, there are several players with nice ceilings.

RB David Johnson Ari 8900 Matchup proof
RB DeMarco Murray Ten 7700 Should have no trouble earning 3x price
RB Jay Ajayi Mia 7600 Would be at top of the list with healthy offensive line
RB Thomas Rawls Sea 5700 Ran well in season debut and now has no split
RB Rashad Jennings NYG 5600 Very good in past two with a great matchup
RB Latavius Murray Oak 5500 Primary ball carrier with all goal line looks
RB Jeremy Hill Cin 3900 No Gio - what do the Bengals do?

Another week with a good mix of “safe” expensive receivers and riskier less-expensive receivers. I would much rather pay up for the points at running back and take my chances with some of the lower end receivers.

WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 8800 Solid but unspectacular in recent efforts
WR Julio Jones Atl 8500 Highest game total on Sunday slate
WR Julian Edelman NE 6800 Four straight good scores
WR Michael Thomas NO 6600 Might be hitting rookie wall but in good spot
WR Doug Baldwin Sea 6400 A lot of Seahawks on the list this week
WR Rishard Matthews Ten 5800 Been a ball hog recently
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 5500 Has a knack for touchdowns
WR DeVante Parker Mia 4700 High-risk, high-reward
WR Marqise Lee Jax 4000 Surprisingly very good most of the season
WR Tyler Boyd Cin 4000 Figures to get AJ's targets

Jordan Reed, Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph and Eric Ebron have all been popular DFS tight ends this season and all are gone from the Sunday slate. Add in the Gronk injury and proceed to throw a dart at the board. 

TE Greg Olsen Car 5800 Top TE on the board
TE Jimmy Graham Sea 5300 Been a top target in the new Seahawks passing game
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz Hou 3300 Never thought he would be on my list
TE Will Tye NYG 3000 Does not need to do much at $3k
TE Vance McDonald SF 3000 Been a TD target lately
TE Austin Hooper Atl 2800 Tamme officially to IR

All of the defenses on my list are from the group of heavy favorites except for the Chargers.

DST Bills Buf 3800 Expensive price to pay, but Jax is sloppy with the ball
DST Giants NYG 3600 Just look at mediocre Steelers D last week
DST Patriots NE 3400 It's the Jets
DST Dolphins Mia 3300 Dolphins D has been good recently
DST Chargers SD 2700 Chargers have been surprisingly good all season

Last week’s Colts stack with Lev Bell and Rashad Jennings had me dreaming of big money after the first half of the early games, with a score of 106 in the bank. But they all faded badly in the second half and I was left to withstand a Sunday night shootout between the Packers and Redskins just to cash. But it was fun for awhile seeing a 1 next to your name in the standings, even if it was short-lived. This week, we are going with a Seahawks stack on the road against the Bucs. The Bucs have the ability to score and keep the game relatively close for awhile. 

QB Russell Wilson Sea 6700
RB David Johnson Ari 8900
RB Thomas Rawls Sea 5700
WR Tyler Boyd Cin 4000
WR Doug Baldwin Sea 6400
WR DeVante Parker Mia 4700
TE Jimmy Graham Sea 5300
DST Chargers SD 2700
RB Rashad Jennings NYG 5600
      50000

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