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Sunday 24th Sep 2017

Week 11 is the last major week of byes (Falcons, Chargers, Broncos, Jets). Then only the Browns and Titans (Week 13) will have byes remaining. From a DFS perspective, it does not really matter, but from a season-long game perspective, I wish that the NFL would just have eight teams on byes in Weeks 6-9 and get them all out of the way. There is no reason to have some teams with byes in Week 4 and others more than two months later. The Titans-Colts game pops off the chart with a whopping Vegas total of 53 and a close point spread. As we saw last week in the Steelers-Cowboys game, a ton of points can be racked up with teams going back and forth in the fourth quarter. How many more points could Marcus Mariota have scored last week if the Packers could have kept the game closer?

There is no shortage of viable QB options in Week 11. Some figure to be on the positive side of blowouts, which usually provides a nice floor but a limited ceiling. Titans-Colts and Packers-Redskins figure to be close back-and-forth games.

QB Tom Brady NE 7800 Disappointed on Sunday night - fear running TDs
QB Aaron Rodgers GB 7600 GB is all pass with no defense
QB Ben Roethlisberger Pit 7500 Needs early TD passes as Pit figures to roll Cle
QB Andrew Luck Ind 7200 Highest Vegas total we have seen in a long time
QB Marcus Mariota Ten 6700 See Luck - can't deny how great he has played
QB Eli Manning NYG 6300 Giants should steamroll Chi but Eli has failed before
QB Kirk Cousins Was 5800 GB will score, so Wash will have to keep up

It is becoming very apparent that the upper-echelon running backs have returned to the NFL. The weekly “formula” has been to fill up with high-priced backs and save at receiver. All four of the guys at the top figure to put up big numbers again.

RB Le'Veon Bell Pit 8800 Best matchup of the upper tier backs
RB DeMarco Murray Ten 8200 Been as good as the Dallas days
RB Ezekiel Elliott Dal 8000 Speaking of Dallas - earning every bit of first round
RB David Johnson Ari 7900 27 was a disappointment - Minn will be a test
RB LeSean McCoy Buf 6900 Should be back to full health - will be overlooked
RB Frank Gore Ind 5000 Fits with Colts stacks - catches passes and scores
RB C.J. Prosise Sea 4200 Bulk of work in Seattle and all the passes
RB Kenneth Dixon Bal 3900 Looked good last week

Very hard to justify a lineup with more than one of the high-priced receivers. There is just too much value in the mid-tier receivers and too much risk in the lower tier backs.

WR Antonio Brown Pit 9500 Very expensive and might be out before 4th quarter
WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 8500 Bears defense can get torched
WR Jordy Nelson GB 7800 I can't explain it - but getting most of the looks
WR T.Y. Hilton Ind 7700 Colts stack
WR Stefon Diggs Min 7000 34 catches on 42 targets in past three games
WR Julian Edelman NE 6300 Been disappointing but coming on lately
WR Donte Moncrief Ind 6100 Very cheap in the Colts stack
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. Cle 5600 Steelers D will give up some points
WR Golden Tate Det 5300 Re-emerged as top dog in Detroit
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 4700 Great hands and knack for end zone
WR Tyreek Hill KC 4500 Consider if Maclin is out again
WR Eli Rogers Pit 4300 Underpriced value

Finally, I hit on a DFS tight end last week. Why do I feel like that was more luck than skill? The tight end spot has been an absolute crap shoot in 2016. Any of the five below could excel, or they could just lay an egg.

TE Jordan Reed Was 5900 Tight end seems like a wasteland - Reed gets targets
TE Delanie Walker Ten 5700 Been the shining star of the TE group
TE Eric Ebron Det 4100 Highly inconsistent
TE Kyle Rudolph Min 3900 Been Diggs and Rudolph in Minn
TE Martellus Bennett NE 3700 Moves up if Gronk is out

There are a few home teams that are big favorites. They are always a threat to get out to a big lead and generate defensive points when their opponent has no choice but to pass on every down.

DST Patriots NE 3600 Have to look at anyone playing SF, but Ari failed
DST Giants NYG 3500 Defense improving and Bears are a mess
DST Chiefs KC 3400 KC at home against mistake-prone TB
DST Lions Det 3200 Det defense not great, but Jax turns the ball over
DST Dolphins Mia 2900 Defense has really stepped it up lately

Last week, the Titans stack and a late switch to Shepard from Hogan (in a full-slate tournament) put me in the money. Here is my DraftKings GPP game lineup as of today. I may be over-Colted and I would like to figure out how to get a Titan or two into the lineup.

QB Andrew Luck Ind 7200
RB Le'Veon Bell Pit 8800
RB Frank Gore Ind 5000
WR Donte Moncrief Ind 6100
WR T.Y. Hilton Ind 7700
WR Eli Rogers Pit 4300
DST Dolphins Mia 2900
TE Martellus Bennett NE 3700
RB C.J. Prosise Sea 4200
      49900

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