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Sunday 23rd Apr 2017

Week 1 was not a bad time to be on the sidelines to take in all the action. Now, with at least a little clarity, let’s jump right in.

On the Quarterback side, we have to constantly wrestle with paying up for the near sure-thing versus taking a risk and going cheap with a quarterback in a good matchup. I normally try to play the middle-range quarterbacks, but this week I can’t see passing on Drew Brees or Eli Manning.

Drew Brees 8200 NO Brees vs. Eli was epic last year for fantasy players
Eli Manning 7600 NYG Can get Eli for $600 less than Brees
Derek Carr 7200 Oak Falcons could not stop Winston last week
Kirk Cousins 7000 Was Cousins was sub-par on Monday.  Dallas could not stop Eli
Blake Bortles 6700 Jax Looks like an offensive shoot-out against the Chargers
Philip Rivers 6400 SD Jax defense was better, but far from great
Jimmy Garoppolo 5900 NE Cheap option.  Looked capable against good Cards defense
Trevor Siemian 5200 Den Showed well with the whole world watching last Thursday

The multi-year running back trend held in Week 1 as we had only two 100-yard running backs. Not all was lost as 11 backs caught at least five passes. For those looking to spend up on running backs, please remember that in Week 1, Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson combined to score the same number of points as Charcandrick West.

David Johnson 7600 Ari 20 touches should be the norm
Lamar Miller 7200 Hou Blew away previous season's touches (32)
Spencer Ware 6100 KC Uber-ly productive with Charles out
DeMarco Murray 5700 Ten Saw the bulk of the work with Henry clearly a backup for now
Danny Woodhead 5200 SD 16 rushing attempts was a surprise.  Still very cheap
Theo Riddick 4300 Det Seems to be a lock for catches.  Lack of rushes need to be considered

The wide receiver group is crowded with an abundance of choices. While you do not need to have the top of the heap to win cash games, you have to avoid the total duds. Players like Dez Bryant and John Brown (each with 1 catch for 8 yards) wiped people out.

 

Odell Beckham Jr. 9500 NYG Saints could not stop Raiders receivers
Brandin Cooks 8000 NO Best of three-headed group.  Could be short targets at times - not this week
Kelvin Benjamin 6500 Car Came back as the clear number one target for Cam
Julian Edelman 6200 NE As close to a guarantee as possible when healthy
Willie Snead 5800 NO A nice pairing with Cooks
Mohamed Sanu 5500 Atl Proved to be a solid compliment to Julio
Stefon Diggs 5100 Min Top target on a low volume team
Travis Benjamin 4400 SD Someone has to take "charge" for the Chargers
Will Fuller 4200 Hou Looked the part of a first round draft choice
Eli Rogers 4100 Pit Very capable complement to A. Brown
Tajae Sharpe 4100 Ten Was clearly the best receiver on the field for Tenn
Jamison Crowder 3600 Was Cheap option.  Had the targets on Monday

TE was a wasteland last week, with only nine tight ends catching at least five passes. Also note that of the eight tight ends that scored, three of those players had only one reception.

 

Greg Olsen 5600 Car Looks like he will maintain his targets with Benjamin back
Travis Kelce 5000 KC Has been good in the past, can he be consistent in 2016?
Jason Witten 4300 Dal Clearly Dak's security blanket
Jesse James 3400 Pit Yes, he can catch
Vance McDonald 3000 SF Only two catches, but had a TD.  Risk on low volume SF offense
Virgil Green 2800 Den Was clearly part of the Broncos game plan

There were only two defensive/special teams touchdowns in Week 1, both coming from the Vikings. While it is almost certain that will change in Week 2, trying to predict defensive scores is a waste of time. Instead, we should focus on the best chance to put pressure on the quarterback.

Panthers 3900 Biggest favorite on the board against below-average offense
Seahawks 3800 The Rams are among the three worst offenses in the NFL
Packers 3200 The Vikings showed nothing on offense last week
Ravens 3000 Any team playing the Browns has to be on this list
Browns 2500 On the flip side, Baltimore did not show much last week either

My projected lineup (predominantly in DraftKings cash games) as of this writing:

Eli Manning QB 7600
Lamar Miller RB 7200
Danny Woodhead RB 5200
Odell Beckham Jr. WR 9500
Kelvin Benjamin WR 6500
Tajae Sharpe WR 4100
Virgil Green TE 2800
Ravens DEF 3000
Eli Rogers FLX 4100
    50000

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