Any participant who has been involved in fantasy baseball for any considerable time is already familiar with the time-worn warning to not chase wins.
From a practical perspective, what is suggested is to avoid the temptation to pick up mediocre starting pitchers with the hopes of increasing win totals. The pitfall is the very likely hit on ERA and WHIP, essentially cratering two categories while taking a lower-odds shot to improve in one.
This advice is valid, but is not the only related pitfall.
When you have a pitching roster opening, and you do the right thing by resisting the urge to chase wins, what is left?
Adding a reliever who can at least help your ratios, right?
Proven setup men like Tony Watson of Pittsburgh, Tyler Clippard of Arizona and Kevin Siegrist of St. Louis are good enough that they were taken on draft day in NL-only leagues. Same for a number of closers-in-waiting – or at least those suspected to be.
The next tier down in relievers may be equally known, but carry risks. As such, they can become almost invisible on your roster while sucking life out of your ratios.
As you may guess, I speak from experience. Shut out of closers in the NL Tout Wars draft this spring, coupled with purposely taking an injured player in Zack Wheeler and a still-in-the minors prospect in Lucas Giolito, followed by the early loss of Tyson Ross to the DL, I needed several fill-ins.
Off to the waiver wire I went.
After a week of temporary insanity, chasing wins by adding Williams Perez of Atlanta, I came to my senses. I jettisoned Perez and went looking for known bullpen quantities.
The first reliever who caught my eye was Arquimedes Caminero from Pittsburgh, a player I had rostered in 2015 and from whom I received good results. Despite his rough spring in 2016, the Pirates took Caminero north as he is out of options, but the right-hander had continued to struggle in the early going. I went with the track record and added the reliever for $11 FAAB (on a $1000 base).
My second addition was Milwaukee’s former closer Jim Henderson ($10), now with the Mets. While neither Caminero nor Henderson appeared to be in their respective clubs’ closer hierarchy, they had enough of a track record that I felt OK with rostering them.
Heading into May, Caminero lugged a 5.40 ERA, 1.886 WHIP and an 11-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings. I knew he had to go.
I held onto Henderson, even as he quietly eroded my results each week in May. Only after I awoke from my coma and saw his month to date results – 5.40 ERA – did I give him the heave-ho this past weekend.
The temptation to chase wins came back over me – but only mildly. The subject was another pitcher who is less than he used to be in San Francisco’s Matt Cain. After seven starts that translated to a 7.84 ERA, the right-hander, still just 31 years of age, has crafted three consecutive outings that looked more like the Matt Cain of old. That says a lot since his last good season was 2012.
Still, looking ahead at the coming week’s schedule, I couldn’t get past the fact that Cain’s next outing was to be at Coors Field this Friday. To top it off, just last month, Cain was pounded by the Rockies there, to the tune of six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings.
I ended up making a tiny bid of $3, fully expecting to lose Cain – and being fine with that. The players I really wanted to add were two relievers in the closing hierarchy – though playing for two of the weakest teams in the NL. My acquisition was reliever Ross Ohlendorf of Cincinnati, as I was outbid on Tyler Thornburg of Milwaukee.
The other day, in NL LABR, I received a trade inquiry offering speed for pitching and went to look at my competitor’s roster to make an evaluation. To my amazement, there was Caminero in his active lineup, despite a 5.74 ERA and an amazingly-bloated WHIP of 2.106 here in 2016.
(Literally as I am typing this, Caminero made his first career plate appearance before hitting two batters within 11 pitches and being ejected late in a 12-1 blowout over Arizona on Tuesday evening.)
As I realized my fellow league owner was likely guilty of the same crime as me – ignoring Caminero’s drain on his pitching stats while focusing on his past successes – I decided to share my warning. After all, if the two of us did it in our high-visibility industry leagues, you may, too.
So go and check your rosters for those disposable players trying to suck the life out of your ratios. Get rid of them for more dependable alternatives, and if those players do not work, keep trying. Avoid roster complacency!
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.