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Sunday 23rd Apr 2017

Since it is Mother's Day, aside from wishing all the women out there--mothers or not--the best of days, since Zach is likely taking care of familial duties, we have a special Sunday Bed Goes Up that maybe mom can read on her notebook, in bed, while you are delivering coffee and croissant.

Yesterday morning I did my due diligence, and after reviewing Lord Z's Daily Projections I made my plays at RealTime, and went about my Saturday. It was a quiet one as I usually play 18-holes on Saturdays with my mates Eric Hedgecock, Bob Ferrero, and Dave Eary, but Eric was out-of-town, with Dave and Bob having a last minute commitment they had to attend.

As Bob, Dave and I played Thursday, and I got another 18 in Friday, and since a spate of May showers were set for the weekend, I decided to bag playing and hang around the house with Diane, watching baseball, writing a little, playing Strat-O-Matic games, and messing around with my guitar solo practice.

So, I picked my roster early, had a couple of pivot plays, and monitored to ensure a full complement of players. One of my plays was Martin Prado, facing the ever-porous Jeremy Hellickson with his 1.391 WHIP and league leading nine homers allowed, but I got the word that Prado would not be starting Saturday.

Prado was a $3900 buy, and I had $300 in my cap left, but the only choice if moving up was Yunel Escobar ($4000) in a match-up, and looking down since, it was late in the day meaning most players were locked, my only reasonable choices moving down were Brandon Drury ($3000), Luis Valbuena ($3400), and Aaron Hill ($3500). Similarly, because it was late in the day, a lot of my players were also locked in meaning most of my pivots had already made their points.

Among the four--Escobar, Drury, Valbuena, and Hill--Drury was the most appealing, but for some odd reason I pulled up Aaron Hill's numbers, which were terrible at .171-1-8 over 85 at-bats. What was encouraging was that Hill had hit safely his last seven games (how terrible was his average before that streak?), so I shrugged, feeling rather stuck, and thinking Hill was due, reluctantly clicked on his name, adding the Brewer to my active roster.

Chris Sale and Bartolo Colon were my hurlers for the day, and going with Colon at $5600, I was able to parlay a fine outfield of Ryan Braun ($5900 and eight points), Christian Yelich ($5200 and five points), and Yoenis Cespedes ($5400 and nine points for a player I think is as good and dangerous as Giancarlo Stanton) so as the evening contests started, my point total was pretty good with or without Hill and it looked like I would indeed finish in the moolah.

It was late enough in the evening that Diane and I turned baseball off, and started catching up with Season 6 of Downton Abbey, but I kept my iPhone handy to score check, and laughed aloud when I saw Hill hit his first homer. After the numbers for the second dinger posted, I again chuckled now knowing I would win the daily challenge. And, then the third homer posted pushing Hill's totals for the day to 22 amazing points: probably more than he had scored this entire season before yesterday.

I confess, I am a stat guy, although I don't look at the minutiae most serious fantasy geeks use. I believe heavily in WHIP and OBP as source numbers, and strikeouts-to-at-bats as well as whiffs-to-walks and of course strikeouts-to-innings, but I also feel all the other numbers we look at are subsets of strikeouts and walks in some permutation. For, the bottom line is pitchers who keep runners off the bases will likely be successful, just as hitters who can get on base will be worthy of investment.

But I also understand we touch luck on a daily basis; but, most of the time that said gift is invisible to us.

However, I am unsure about the confluence of stat scrounging and luck that hit Aaron Hill and me at the same place at the same time yesterday.

If you think, though, that I am reducing my DFS win to luck, remember without Hill my squad still banged out an impressive 61.66 points, and a goose-egg out of third base would have still landed me in second place, one point behind Czervik67 who bested the fifth placers by another seven points. But, just a walk from my third base spot would have meant a tie, and anything above was still a win.

I think what it boils down to is to do your homework, but also trust your instincts. And, in this case, with limited choices at all positions my instincts pointed to Hill, and luck did do the rest.

However, the bottom line is that without having done the work in picking the rest of my roster, said luck might well just have been one of those invisible moments of the commodity.

For, the best way to take advantage of luck is to put oneself in the position to be able to do just that. Otherwise, it isn't luck, but rather just a missed opportunity.

Please feel free to comment below, and don't forget you can hit me up @lawrmichaels.

 

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