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Tuesday 19th Sep 2017

toutwarslogo new

Welcome to "You Look FAABulous", our look at the FAAB reports for Tout Wars and LABR. Each week, your friends at Mastersball will post the results of the weekly Tout Wars and LABR FAAB run, featuring the winning bid as well a the runner-up bids.

Included with each league report will be commentary from a Mastersball staff member participating in that league. We invite you to ask questions and post comments at the bottom of the report.

All contingency bids for awarded players are included. Sometimes, this bid is tied to a player that the owner received, so at times the bid amount is larger than the winning bid. We are including it to provide as much information and context as possible with each report.

There are five Tout Wars leagues, a 12-team AL only, 12-team NL only, 15-team Mixed Auction League, 15-team Mixed Draft League and a brand new 12-team Mixed Auction Head to head format. All use on-base-percentage instead of batting average with the Head to Head league also using other unique categories. You can see the complete standings for each league by clicking on the appropriate heading, located just under each player photo.

New to Tout Wars this year is a $1000 free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) and no Vickrey. Teams are still allowed $0 bids.

Here is the Tout Wars report. LABR will be posted later.

bryan holaday full

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

BHoladay, Tex Jeff Erickson 111 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 51    
SWright, Bos Seth Trachtman 58      
MMontgomery, Sea Chris Liss 31      
DDuffy, KC Chris Liss 24 Chris Liss 11    
AGriffin, Tex Jeff Erickson 21      
DBarney, Tor Lawr Michaels 20 Patrick Davitt 3 Steve Moyer 0 Mike Podhorzer 0
TBeckham, TB Patrick Davitt 3 Mike Podhorzer 0    
MAviles, Det Patrick Davitt 3      
CDevenski, Hou Patrick Davitt 3      
JWeaver, LAA Steve Moyer 3 Jeff Erickson 15    
ABenintendi, Bos Chris Liss 3      
FSalas, LAA Jason Collette 2      
MMinor, KC Rob Leibowitz 0      
RRua, Tex Mike Podhorzer 0      

UNAWARDED BIDS

BBrach, Bal Chris Liss 7    
CShreve, NYY Chris Liss 7    
BShaw, Cle Chris Liss 5 Rob Leibowitz 0  
JShuck, CWS Patrick Davitt 3 Chris Liss 3 Mike Podhorzer 0
ECarrera, Tor Patrick Davitt 3 Mike Podhorzer 0  
RoPerez, Cle Jeff Erickson 2    
RTorreyes, NYY Chris Liss 2    
BNicholas, Tex Jeff Erickson 1    
EJohnson, CWS Jason Collette 1    
ERomero, TB Jason Collette 1    
JChoi, LAA Chris Liss 1    
RRoss, Bos Patrick Davitt 1    
SClevenger, Sea Patrick Davitt 1    
TSipp, Hou Patrick Davitt 1    
JChavez, Tor Rob Leibowitz 0    
LHochevar, KC Rob Leibowitz 0    
PNeshek, Hou Rob Leibowitz 0    
SGeltz, TB Rob Leibowitz 0    

Lawr Michaels' Commentary

Injuries forced that hand of several Tout owners this week, leading off with Jeff Erickson who went $111 for Bryan Holaday, replacing Robinson Chirinos who is down for a couple of months. Similarly, RotoHeaven's Rob Leibowitz scored Mike Minor--for $0--replacing Andrew Heaney, while Patrick Davitt made two of his three moves in replacing Danny Santana with a $3 Tim Beckham, and anticipated Sin-Shoo Choo hitting the DL by picking up Mike Aviles ($3) to cover for the week. Last week Patrick went $205 for Sean Manaea, so it seems the Touts are still adjusting to the Tout change which increased the FAAB budget to $1000 from $100, and eliminated Vickery..

In his last move, Davitt also purchased Chris Devenski ($3) and reserved Manaea in anticipation of a call-up this summer.

In other moves, Seth Trachtman reserved Scott Feldman and put out the second largest chunk of change, paying $58 for knuckleballer Steven Wright, while RotoWire's Chris Liss made a troika of moves: reserved Aroldis Chapman with Mike Montgomery ($31), Tim Anderson with Danny Duffy ($24, and a move I like), and stashed Oswaldo Arcacia and grabbed hot Boston prospect Andrew Benintendi for $3.

Finally I decided I liked that at-bat odds of Darwin Barney more than those of Cliff Pennington, so I grabbed Barney for $20 to get some at-bats till Devon Travis returns to the fold.

Fewer moves this week suggests owners are assessing their resources and watching numbers settle before the wave of trades and jockeying kicks into gear.

Todd's Take

Or, maybe, there just weren't many players to bid on this week.

As you'll soon see, the National League had some spirited bidding. If the players are there, the bids will come. Something to keep in mind is while on the surface it appears Tout Wars uses "only" four reserves, there's an unlimited DL. When the Warriors get done fleshing out their moves for the week, there will be 23 players in the league with DL status - that's the equivalent of a six-man reserve list. And. it won't be long before even more hit the DL so if the intent of switching to a four-man reserve was to lengthen the free agent pool, having unlimited DL spots counteracts that.

 jeanmar gomez full

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

JGomez, Phi Phil Hertz 275 Ray Guilfoyle 180 Derek Carty 142 Phil Hertz 112
    Brian Walton 103 Andy Behrens 92 Todd Zola 77
    Steve Gardner 37 Tristan H. Cockcroft 21 Grey Albright 20
    Lenny Melnick  15    
JHazelbaker, StL Todd Zola 177 Grey Albright 105 Brian Walton 88 Phil Hertz 47
    Steve Gardner 43 Scott Wilderman 22 Andy Behrens 0
ADiaz, StL Phil Hertz 143 Tristan H. Cockcroft 81 Grey Albright 35 Mike Gianella 28
    Brian Walton 23 Derek Carty 22 Andy Behrens 7
RErlin, SD Todd Zola 113 Tristan H. Cockcroft 34 Phil Hertz 23 Lenny Melnick  12
TLaStella, ChC Tristan H. Cockcroft 65 Steve Gardner 61 Phil Hertz 17 Andy Behrens 8
    Scott Wilderman 1 Todd Zola 1  
ASimon, Cin Andy Behrens 61 Phil Hertz 34    
MSzczur, ChC Scott Wilderman 41 Grey Albright 30 Steve Gardner 29 Mike Gianella 12
    Andy Behrens 4    
MJohnson, LAD Grey Albright 35 Phil Hertz 33 Tristan H. Cockcroft 21  
ABarnes, LAD Scott Wilderman 11      
JLoney, SD Brian Walton 11      
ACaminero, Pit Brian Walton 11 Todd Zola 17 Ray Guilfoyle 1  
MCastro, Col Ray Guilfoyle 10      
JHenderson, NYM Brian Walton 10 Lenny Melnick  6 Phil Hertz 4  
IDeJesus, Cin Steve Gardner 9 Andy Behrens 2    
JPacheco, Cin Tristan H. Cockcroft 0 Todd Zola 1    
HRobles, NYM Mike Gianella 0      
ISuzuki, Mia Andy Behrens 0      
JFrancoeur, Atl Andy Behrens 0      

UNAWARDED BIDS

ARosales, SD Grey Albright 35    
DPhelps, Mia Todd Zola 17 Brian Walton 2 Todd Zola 1
JimJohnson, Atl Brian Walton 10    
RWeeks, Ari Grey Albright 10    
CBethancourt, SD Scott Wilderman 6 Tristan H. Cockcroft 0  
DRoss, ChC Scott Wilderman 5    
BWallace, SD Scott Wilderman 5    
SManess, StL Todd Zola 3    
DStraily, Cin Brian Walton 2    
TThornburg, Mil Brian Walton 1    
JChacin, Atl Phil Hertz 1    
MDenDekker, Was Todd Zola 1    
HNeris, Phi Phil Hertz 0    
BOberholtzer, Phi Phil Hertz 0    
TWolters, Col Tristan H. Cockcroft 0    

Brian Walton's Commentary

Four players found new homes this week in National League Tout at prices over $100. Two were each acquired by two owners – Phil Hertz of BaseballHQ and our own Lord Zola.

A week after spending $179 on three players, Hertz dropped a cool $418. In other words, almost 60 percent of his full year FAAB budget is gone after two weeks. His week 2 purchases begin with the third man up as closer in Philadelphia, Jeanmar Gomez ($275). Next-best bid was $180.

Hertz’ other purchase is St. Louis’ shortstop Aledmys Diaz ($143). The Cuban rookie is actually the fourth man up at the position, after injured Jhonny Peralta and Ruben Tejada and Jedd Gyorko. The latter, better as a second baseman, lacks the glove to play short every day, so if Diaz keeps hitting, he could hold the job for at least the first half of the season – until Peralta is ready to return.

Lord Z spent a more modest $280 on his duo – led off by St. Louis’ 28-year-old rookie outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker ($177). I have already written about the 28-year-old’s opportunity in our LABR report, but suffice it to say that it looks like Hazelbaker may have what it takes to stick and perhaps earn part-time starting duties.

Robbie Erlin ($113) rounds out this period’s big-dollar acquisitions. After losing out on a rotation spot this spring, the right-hander was quickly recalled – to help shore up the Padres’ bullpen. Tyson Ross’ injury changed matters, transforming Erlin from an uninteresting reliever into a two-start pitcher this coming week.

Speaking of San Diego, I made a speculative $11 bid on first baseman James Loney. Though the former Rays starter is in the minor leagues, my bet indicates some confidence that the 31-year-old will be called upon to try to help the ailing Padres offense soon. I have to take a week of empty stats unless it is very, very soon.

Todd's Take

This is something I point out every season - the human mind works in odd ways. Of the 31 winning bids in AL and NL Tout Wars, eight end in "1", with no winners actually being $1. That's about 25 percent as compared to random probablity predicting ten percent. The likely reason for so many bids ending in 1 is to best those ending in 0. My personal rule of thumb is to never end a bid in 0, 1, 5 or 6 - unless I'm stringing multiple bids and just want one player at that price. With a $100 budget, every dollar counted. And while it's not like every buck doesn't count with $1000 to work with, there's more wiggle room, especially since, as Lawr suggested, we're all calibrating to the new system both in terms of individuals and learning how are league-mated are doing it.

The reason for not ending in 0 or 5 should be intuitive - those are the most common bids. Some realized this (or I told them) and began ending bids in 1 or 6. So like Vizzini matching wits with the Dread Pirate Roberts, ending bids with 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 or 9 should win a couple extra players over the course of the season. Now I just need to develop an immunity to iocane.

 scooter gennett full

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION 

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

SGennett, Mil Gene McCaffrey 227 Tim Heaney 56 Cory Schwartz 32 Bret Sayre 31
    Derek Van Riper 21 Al Melchior 16  
JGomez, Phi Gene McCaffrey 133 Scott Pianowski 103 Tim Heaney 67 Al Melchior 54
    Scott Engel 33    
UJimenez, Bal Tim Heaney 67      
NTropeano, LAA Tim Heaney 67 Derek Van Riper 47 Al Melchior 44 Fred Zinkie 20
APagan, SF Cory Schwartz 56 Tim Heaney 26 Fred Zinkie 25 David Gonos 7
BHoladay, Tex Scott Pianowski 50      
CCrisp, Oak Tim Heaney 46 Cory Schwartz 5    
EEscobar, Min Scott Swanay 44 Fred Zinkie 10    
MCain, SF David Gonos 43 Nando DiFino 7    
JJay, SD Fred Zinkie 37 Cory Schwartz 2    
JIglesias, Det David Gonos 36      
TJungmann, Mil Tim Heaney 36 David Gonos 43    
AAvila, CWS Scott Swanay 34 Scott Engel 1    
KGraveman, Oak Nando DiFino 34 Cory Schwartz 11 Derek Van Riper 1  
NAhmed, Ari Tim Heaney 26      
RStripling, LAD Al Melchior 25 Cory Schwartz 19 Scott Engel 11 Tim Heaney 6
TMay, Min Joe Pisapia 18 Nando DiFino 4    
JoRamirez, Cle Al Melchior 16 Gene McCaffrey 17    
JHazelbaker, StL Scott Pianowski 15 Cory Schwartz 9 Fred Zinkie 0  
AGarcia, Atl Nando DiFino 14      
TMilone, Min Cory Schwartz 12      
GSanchez, NYY Scott Swanay 5      
NFeliz, Pit Derek Van Riper 2      
CRuiz, Phi Scott Engel 0 Scott Swanay 0    

UNAWARDED BIDS

CAnderson, Mil Tim Heaney 36 David Gonos 6  
JSaltalamacchia, Det Scott Swanay 34    
MReynolds, Col Scott Swanay 34    
SSchebler, Cin Scott Swanay 28    
MUpton, SD Fred Zinkie 25 Tim Heaney 16 Cory Schwartz 12
JSmoak, Tor Scott Swanay 24    
MKepler, Min Tim Heaney 16    
AGriffin, Tex Tim Heaney 6    
MShoemaker, LAA Tim Heaney 6    
TChatwood, Col Cory Schwartz 6    
TCingrani, Cin Joe Pisapia 4    
OInfante, KC Gene McCaffrey 3    
JWeaver, LAA Cory Schwartz 2 Tim Heaney 6  
KSuzuki, Min Scott Swanay 0 Scott Engel 0  
APierzynski, Atl Scott Swanay 0    
JPhegley, Oak Scott Swanay 0    
GSoto, LAA Scott Swanay 0    
CPerez, LAA Scott Swanay 0    
DRuf, Phi Fred Zinkie 0    
MByrd, Cle Fred Zinkie 0    

Zach Steinhorn's Commentary

Last week it was Al Melchior and this week it was Gene McCaffrey who decided that it was time to go on a spending spree. McCaffrey shelled out a combined 360 bucks, 36 percent of his season budget, for Scooter Gennett and Jeanmar Gomez. Maybe I haven't gotten used to thinking about these bids in the context of the new $1000 budget but this seems like a lot. His hot start to the season notwithstanding, Gennett's career offensive numbers are nothing special from a fantasy perspective. Then again, Gene didn't have a big league second baseman on his roster, so perhaps that had something to do with the aggressive bid.

As for Gomez, he's clearly the Phillies' ninth inning choice for now after recording two saves last week. Whether or not he's clearly the Phillies' ninth inning choice two weeks from now remains to be seen. Note that Gomez entered this year with only one career save across six big league seasons. Also note his career 4.13 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

I ultimately chose to sit on the FAAB sidelines this week, though I was tempted to bid on both Angel Pagan and Matt Cain. But with Nori Aoki already on my squad, I felt that adding Pagan, who possesses a similar skill set to Aoki, was unnecessary. And despite Cain's solid season debut, I wanted no part of his next matchup, versus the Rockies at Coors Field. Tout Wars rules stipulate that all players added via FAAB must be in active lineups for at least one week. Not surprisingly, both Giants found a place on a Tout Wars roster, and I think both of these purchases could prove to be wise ones in the long run.

Todd's Take

I'm going to disagree with Zach about Gene "Wise Guy" McCaffrey's bids being overly aggressive. As was discussed last week, while Zach is correct about Gene spending 36 percent of his budget, it isn't the same as spending 36 out of a max of 100. The previous discussion pointed out that spending 360 out of 1000 leaves 640 $1 bids while spending 36 from 100 avails just 64. Another way to look at it is experience from the NFBC (which uses a $1000 budget) has taught me later in the season there will be many successful $1 and $2 bids with the $1000 cap. Last season, this would have been 1 or 2 percent of the budget - now it's one-tenth of that.

Bottom line? Be even more aggressive with a $1000 budget. You'll still get the same guys later and are more assured of getting the players you want early.

 nomar mazara full

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

NMazara, Tex Adam Ronis 234 Ray Murphy 222 Anthony Perri 202 Stacie Stern 118
JGomez, Phi Patrick Mayo 134 Tim McLeod 68 Anthony Perri 54 Eno Sarris 33
    Rudy Gamble 27 Adam Ronis 27 Perry Van Hook 13
NTropeano, LAA Stacie Stern 129 Anthony Perri 34 Eno Sarris 33 Tim McLeod 14
    Adam Ronis 13 Charlie Wiegert 8  
BHolt, Bos Stacie Stern 116 Adam Ronis 43 Perry Van Hook 31 Anthony Perri 31
    Ray Murphy 11 Tim McCullough 8 Charlie Wiegert 7
RStripling, LAD Greg Ambrosius 97 Anthony Perri 34 Perry Van Hook 13 Charlie Wiegert 8
    Rick Wilton 5    
APagan, SF Tim McLeod 47 Stacie Stern 67    
JJaso, Pit Ray Murphy 44      
DGregorius, NYY Anthony Perri 34      
MSmith, Atl Anthony Perri 34 Ray Murphy 33 Adam Ronis 77  
MLatos, CWS Anthony Perri 23 Greg Ambrosius 41 Charlie Wiegert 4  
UJimenez, Bal Charlie Wiegert 13      
ASimon, Cin Perry Van Hook 13      
JJay, SD Perry Van Hook 11      
JHazelbaker, StL Charlie Wiegert 7 Perry Van Hook 11    
AEllis, LAD Greg Ambrosius 6      
MShoemaker, LAA Eno Sarris 6      
RRay, Ari Rudy Gamble 6 Greg Ambrosius 41    
LMorrison, TB Ray Murphy 6      
YEscobar, LAA Ray Murphy 5 Stacie Stern 67    
AAvila, CWS Rudy Gamble 4 Greg Ambrosius 5    
TMay, Min Adam Ronis 4      
CCrisp, Oak Ray Murphy 4 Charlie Wiegert 5    
CLewis, Tex Tom Kessenich 3      
JHellickson, Phi Ray Murphy 2 Tom Kessenich 1    
JSmith, LAA Rudy Gamble 2      
TKoehler, Mia Rick Wilton 1      

UNAWARDED BIDS

BNorris, Atl Greg Ambrosius 47 Tom Kessenich 1
AGarcia, Atl Anthony Perri 37  
CUtley, LAD Anthony Perri 23  
ADiaz, StL Adam Ronis 12 Charlie Wiegert 5
ZCozart, Cin Adam Ronis 12  
JoRamirez, Cle Adam Ronis 12  
MSzczur, ChC Perry Van Hook 11  
KSuzuki, Min Greg Ambrosius 6  
CRuiz, Phi Greg Ambrosius 5  
MCain, SF Charlie Wiegert 4  
PHughes, Min Ray Murphy 2  
MCain, SF Ray Murphy 2  
TZych, Sea Tom Kessenich 1  
KGraveman, Oak Eno Sarris 1  
JSaltalamacchia, Det Rudy Gamble 1  
INova, NYY Tom Kessenich 1  
DFarquhar, TB Tom Kessenich 1  
CYoung, KC Tom Kessenich 1  
CaJoseph, Bal Rudy Gamble 1  
BHoladay, Tex Rudy Gamble 1  

Perry Van Hook's Commentary

While the Tout leagues always have weekly battles for new or even hopeful closers in particular and pitching in general, every once in a while a hot young hitter will grab the headline. Such was the case this Sunday as seven of the fifteen teams bid on new Phillies closer du jour Jeanmar Gomez with a range of $13 all the way up to Patrick Mayo's winning bid of $134 which paled in comparison to the $234 it took for Adam Ronis to roster new Texas Ranger right fielder Nomar Mazara.

While there were only four teams that bid on Mazara who went 3-for-4 with a home run in his first Major League game, all four bids were over $100 and three were for more than $200. Young starting pitchers not on opening day rosters received the next two highest winning bids, the Angels' Nick Tropeano won by Stacie Stern for $129, while the Dodgers newest pitcher Ross Stripling fetched $97 from Greg Ambrosius.

In an effort to add a pitcher and a hitter for my underperforming squad, the bids were not anywhere near winning Stripling or Gomez but sufficient to land Reds' starter Alfredo Simon, and Padres' flychaser Jon Jay.

Interesting one of the best pitchers from Week 1, Jeremy Hellickson, went for just $2. Perhaps too many of the Touts had their ratios torched by the former Ray and Diamondback hurler and don't think his first two starts for the Phillies will be matched in coming weeks.

Todd's Take

I'll be honest, I'm not sure which is more frustrating, the fact that it's obvious not everyone in the Mixed Draft realizes $0 bids are allowed or the league members don't read this report and see me whining about this every season.

I agree with Perry's assessment of Jeremy Hellickson. As a DFS analyst and player, even more difficult that picking a pitcher to ride that evening is identifying one to pig-pile on. History says Hellickson is a prime target for a stack - he's homer prone and his new digs, Citizens Bank Park, is homer friendly. But on the other hand, he seemed to figure something out late last season which has carried over to this campaign. One of the things I like about the shortened reserve list alluded to earlier is not only does Hellickson's owner Ray Murphy of BaseballHQ have to keep Hellickson active this week, he needs to be confident he remains an asset (or plans on dropping hm) since reserve spots are so valuable. This removes the luck element of an arbitrary grab and stash to see how the player develops.

 ross stripling full

HEAD-TO-HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

RStripling, LAD Jeff Boggis 221  
TWhite, Hou Jeff Boggis 212 Michael Beller 147
JGomez, Phi Howard Bender 156 Jake Ciely 26
MSaunders, Tor Howard Bender 138  
CTillman, Bal Jeff Boggis 111  
MSmith, Atl Jake Ciely 111  
MKepler, Min Michael Beller 72  
JHazelbaker, StL Stephania Bell 41  
NTropeano, LAA Jake Ciely 26  
JBenoit, Sea Doug Anderson 12  
YGallardo, Bal Stephania Bell 10  
BHoladay, Tex Peter Kreutzer 0  
MCastro, Col Peter Kreutzer 0  

UNAWARDED BIDS

JRickard, Bal Howard Bender 72
CBeltran, NYY Howard Bender 38
CPerez, LAA Peter Kreutzer 0
HConger, TB Peter Kreutzer 0
APierzynski, Atl Peter Kreutzer 0
MMontgomery, Sea Peter Kreutzer 0
JHenderson, NYM Peter Kreutzer 0
SOh, StL Peter Kreutzer 0

 

 

Peter Kreutzer's Commentary

Tout Wars H2H has an odd format, so all advice is filtered through idiosyncratic rules. Buyer beware.

I entered the week with a catcher on the DL (Yasmani Grandal), and I wanted to replace him. The obvious choice was Robinson Chirinos, but he broke his forearm this weekend, is on the 60 day DL and can't be counted on to have value this year (much less this week) when he is healthy. I put in a $0 bid on B Holaday, his replacement, and I'm glad I got him for no $.

I also jettisoned Kevin Gausman, ace prospect but injured prospect, for Miguel Castro, young phenom with some control issues. I'm not sure Castro was the best choice (I put contingent bids on Mike Montgomery, Jim Henderson, and SY Oh) but he is the most dominant pitcher out there, if you disregard walks. And he's young and presumably will get smarter. Risky, but a play.

I also reserved Ender Inciarte, who is hurt, and activated Jorge Soler, who should play more this week now that Kyle Schwarber, his platoon mate, is out for the season. We'll play the matchups week to week with these guys.

Jeff Boggis made big bets on Ross "No-Hitter Manque" Stripling, for $221, Chris Tillman coming off an excellent start for $111, and Tyler White for $212, off to a hot start in Houston, for $212.

Michael Beller did put in a bid for $147 for White, but otherwise Boggis's bids were not contested.

But other $100+ bids included Mallex Smith (in play because Inciarte is hurt), Michael Saunders, and Jeanmar Gomez (because saves, maybe),

Did I mention that 12 team mixed leagues are weird?

Todd's Take

Yes Peter, 12-teamers are weird. There's an interesting dichotomy, one which I cop to not being all that proficient at dealing with in the NFBC. A 12-team roster should have starters at each position. Granted, some are high-floor, low ceiling types (let's call them Nick Markakis). The free agent pool is usually dotted with risky but high-upside players. Old school fantasy players are wired to let things play out and since a 12-team roster has no holes on the surface, my lean is to let water find its level. However, looking at the transactions of the 12-team NFBC leagues, the successful teams churn the heck out of their roster. It can't all be cogent analysis, some of it has to be the spaghetti method - throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks. I'm curious to see what works in the Tout H2H league since there's an interesting mix of younger players more programmed to take chances with those possessing the wait-and-see gene in their DNA.

 

 

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