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Saturday 16th Dec 2017

After 22 days and 10 hours, it was over. Late on Thursday night, my 50-round NFBC slow draft finally reached its end, and my focus immediately shifted to the Tout Wars Mixed Auction draft to be held this coming Saturday. As I've mentioned before, I like to use the NFBC Draft Champions draft as a preparation tool for my other drafts, most notably Tout, since both leagues are of the 15-team Mixed variety.

Although Tout is an auction, as opposed to a snake draft, at least I can get a feel for the depth of the player pool at each of the positions. However, there is a downside to participating in a snake draft before an auction, as it is entirely possible to purchase the exact same team that you drafted in the snake format. Unlikely, but possible. And this sort of overlapping is something I try to avoid if I can. Sure, there are always exceptions. There are always a handful of "my guys", players who I draft in two, three, or even four leagues. But what fun is that? Drafting the same players over and over again could lead to a dominant overall fantasy season but it could also lead to a rather depressing six-month experience. So, here are a handful of players who reside on my NFBC roster but are unlikely to find a home on my Tout Wars squad, for various reasons.

Adam Jones - Barring something crazy happening, I will not be investing in Jones next weekend, the main reason for this being that Tout is an OBP league. While Jones sports a solid .278 career batting average, his career OBP is a pedestrian .319, and he hasn't posted an OBP above .318 since 2012. The Orioles centerfielder could very well bounce back from what was a somewhat disappointing 2015 campaign, but in an OBP auction league, I'd sooner select one of the other outfielders in his tier.

Ketel Marte - There was a time when only Todd Zola was talking about Marte. Fortunately, I was able to draft him within that window. Now, the Mariners shortstop is included in every article on top sleepers to the point where he's no longer a sleeper. In fact, we may have reached the point where he's being overvalued. Note that Marte has only 57 games of big league experience. By no means will I be avoiding him at the auction table, but I have a strong feeling that his price will exceed my comfort zone.

Chase Headley - I waited too long to address the third base position in the NFBC draft, so I got stuck with this guy. That will not happen again. Aside from his MVP caliber 2012 season, Headley has turned in mediocre offensive numbers. When he's your starting third baseman in a mixed league, you know that something went wrong.

Gio Gonzalez - Gio has been a longtime favorite of mine, and drafting him this year for what will likely be a modest price could net a nice profit. That said, Gonzalez is coming off a 2015 season in which he posted his highest hit rate since 2009, and his lack of pitch count efficiency hurts him in the Wins department. He lasted more than six innings in just nine of his 31 starts in 2015. I'll probably draft him in multiple leagues anyway, as his low cost will be too tempting to ignore. But I'm not so sure that Tout will be one of those leagues. I guess it will all depend on price.

Anibal Sanchez - Like Gio, Anibal has been a member of many of my fantasy teams over the years, as you can probably tell from the first name references. Unfortunately, this is not the same Anibal as the one who registered a 2.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 202 strikeouts back in 2013. This is an older and more brittle Anibal. This is an Anibal who missed time last season due to a shoulder injury and has already dealt with multiple ailments this spring. On the other hand, this is an Anibal who will likely be available for a price no greater than five bucks.

This is an Anibal who I might end up drafting after all.

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