Just before the All-Star break last year, I wrote an article for our friends at USA Today on the proliferation of rookie pitchers in 2015. The truth is by the time the season was over, no less that 150 pitchers had made their debut in 2015 according to Baseball-Reference.
To me, that suggests that Major League GM's are more than willing to give a shot to a draft pick moving up through the system. Certainly, if we look at the Mets and the Indians, both teams have fantastic young rotations, but just about every franchise boasts a hot young arm on the verge of domination. Daniel Norris. Aaron Nola. Carlos Rodon. Henry Owens. All seem on the verge of big things at The Show and on our fantasy rosters.
In a way, this makes sense to me. For example, the Dodgers gave Kenta Maeda $3 million a year on an eight-year contract worth a maximum of $90 million including incentives to pitch for them.
Maeda is hardly a rookie at age 28, with eight professional seasons played for Hiroshima, over which he went 97-67, 2.39 over 1509.6 innings. Maeda had fine control in Japan, with 1233 strikeouts to 319 walks with 1263 hits for a 1.048 WHIP. But, at 6'0", 154 pounds, I am not sure how a young man with 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings will fare hurling in a league where strikeouts, fastballs, and power largely rule the roost.
Irrespective, the Dodgers signed Maeda and installed him in their rotation, and at present the import is the #3 starter for the team (behind Clayton Kershaw and Scott Kazmir), ahead of both Alex Wood and Mike Bolsinger. Now, it is true both Wood and Bolsinger ran out of gas last year, but still, Wood was a decent 12-12, 3.84 over 189.6 innings while Bolsinger went 6-6, 3.62 over 109.3 frames. Note too that the Dodgers also have Brett Anderson, who went 11-9 over 189 more innings last year (staying healthy for the first time in the last six years) as well as Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu (who missed all of last season due to injury), giving the team as much depth in the rotation as anyone.
While I do understand a team cannot have too much pitching, I don't understand a long-term commitment to an unknown quantity like Maeda despite already having 45-plus wins and a sub-4.00 ERA over nearly 700 innings among Wood, Anderson, Ryu, and Bolsinger.
And, it is not so much that I mean to pick on the Maeda signing, for it seems a lot of pitchers of questionable skill sets have received some fine contracts. Kazmir, for example, has had a nice couple of years, but $16 million a year? Or J.A. Happ, who now gets $12 million a year after establishing himself as a 33-year-old with a career 62-61, 4.13 record with a 1.367 WHIP?
Anyway, in looking at the remaining arms, let's look at this year's Jamey Wrights, in other words, pitchers who manage to keep a job despite a prolonged inability to get hitters out at critical moments. Although, Wright did emerge as an effective middle guy at the very end of his odd career, so though I am happier for the Major League teams to go to their systems before signing any of these guys, you still never know.
Tim Lincecum: How it hurts to put Timmy, whom I scored during his glorious NL heyday, winning back-to-back Cy Youngs, but Timmy has lost it. Velocity or not, he has not adjusted and learned the Tim Hudson method of transitioning from throwing to pitching. The truth is, Lincecum (and as I have written before, Matt Cain) no longer own batters in critical spots, and as a result I would not trust either of them (note Cain is still a Giant).
A.J. Griffin: Such a waste, for Griffin could pitch pretty well at first before his arm fell off. He hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2013, and allowed 46 homers over 282.6 innings with the Athletics. And now we have to trust that his arm is ok and he won't allow gopher balls. Ha.
Mark Buehrle: OK, the thing with Buehrle is what you see is what you get, and what you get is 200 innings with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts. In some leagues--like H2H formats--that is worth a lot, but not so much if you are in a straight roto league, unless your league is way deep. Then the innings can help you, especially if you can stream, for Buehrle is streaky and can be exploited accordingly.
Mike Minor: Ouch, what happened here? Minor advances in skills, hits the skids with a 6-12, 4.77 over 145.3 innings last year, and the Braves let him go? Once again, a lesson in how tough it is to make it. However, maybe there is some Luke Hochevar in Minor somewhere with a nice middle relief career ahead of him.
Doug Fister I don't know why I have never felt I could trust Fister, for his numbers between 2011-14 are really pretty good (51-38), but here is the lanky (6'8") righty waiting for a chance after an iffy (5-7, 4.19, 1.398 over 103 innings) 2015. Fister is just 31 and surely will sign somewhere and actually might prove to be the best bargain among the basement treasures of the unsigned veteran hurlers of 2016. Depending upon where he signs, for a couple of bucks in an AL or NL-only format, I might be willing to take a flier.