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Monday 27th Mar 2017

Keep trusting the process. That is my message after a losing Week 14 for me. I have consciously tried as this season has gone on to avoid the urge to tinker with my lineup. Sure, I considered swapping out Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.J. Yeldon, Delanie Walker and the Browns defense for Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the Seahawks defense. But I was able to avoid the temptation.

I went back and forth all week on Vincent Jackson vs. Doug Baldwin, both priced at $4,500. I liked V-Jax a little more from the outset, expecting and up and down battle against the Saints while the expectation was for the Seahawks to get a big lead and run the clock to grind out the game. Even during the week when I heard V-Jax was battling a knee injury, I stuck with him when he was declared active on Sunday. Well, that cost me 31 points and a virtual guaranteed score above the payline.

With only Danny Amendola left on my roster at flex and being below the pay line, I correctly figured that there was no way to move above the cash line with Amendola’s ownership expected to be around 50%. So I had just enough money to go from Amendola to Lamar Miller. I felt like a genius at halftime on Monday night when Miller had scored two touchdowns to move me above the cash line.

My big fear then turned to the high ownership on Odell Beckham Jr. While the ownership was near 50%, all I really needed in the second half was for Beckham to not go bonkers and for the Dolphins to keep giving Miller a chance to run. Someone needs to explain how the Dolphins could go almost exclusive pass in the second half (Miller had five carries), leading to more opportunity for Beckham. We know that the Dolphins forgot to cover him on the 84-yard catch (just a minor mix-up) and the rest is history.

But somehow on Tuesday morning, in spite of losing, I didn’t feel as bad as I did after the early games on Sunday. My brain really hurt for messing up the V-Jax-Baldwin call, but I felt at least I played the end game correctly in getting off Amendola and on to Miller (even though the Dolphins refused to cooperate).

If they can contain Beckham, they can get some points

QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady NE 7800 At least 23 in all but three games (and they were not bad)
Cam Newton Car 7800 Now with Brady as highest priced QB.
Carson Palmer Ari 7000 At least 23 points in four of past five
Russell Wilson Sea 7000 Offense opened up after Lynch injury. 16 TD passes in past four games
Drew Brees NO 6600 Started season at $8000. At least 38 pass attempts in all but one game
Matthew Stafford Det 6100 Benefits against Saints defense. Nine TDs in past three games
Blake Bortles Jax 6100 Continues to put up huge passing numbers. Ten TDs in past three. Still cheap
Marcus Mariota Ten 5500 Expect Ten to be playing from behind
A.J. McCarron Cin 5400 Says he is as good as Brady. Good match-up to prove it
RUNNING BACK
Devonta Freeman Atl 7500 Falcons have struggled to no end, but Jax defense is not very good
Adrian Peterson Min 7100 Dependable TD threat. Not catching as many passes as in the past
DeAngelo Williams Pit 6600 23+ points in three straight
David Johnson Ari 5700 24 touches in each of the past two games
Shaun Draughn SF 4600 Disappointing with only two receptions last game after 5-5-8 in previous three
Denard Robinson Jax 4600 Solid in place of Yeldon last week. Effective pass catcher last season
James White NE 4600 Good option with Blount out
Javorius Allen Bal 4500 Surprising huge $800 price drop coming off bad Seattle game. 30-18-16 in three prior
Ronnie Hillman Den 4300 Consider if C.J. is out again
Darren Sproles Phi 4200 Getting a little pricey but scores from all over
Theo Riddick Det 4000 At least five catches in 4 straight
Tim Hightower NO 3900 Nowhere else to get 28 carries for this cheap. Touchdown saved the day
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Brown Pit 8700 Tough match-up with Denver
Julio Jones Atl 8500 Cheapest he has been all season. Just not scoring TDs
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 8500 Shaky QB play catching up with him
A.J. Green Cin 7900 A.J. to A.J. right out of the box. New QB might work out just fine
Allen Robinson Jax 7600 Only catch last week was a short TD. Nice bounce back chance vs. struggling Falcons
Alshon Jeffery Chi 7300 Finally appears to be healthy. Might be in for a strong finish
Jarvis Landry Mia 6300 Can't beat 18 targets (after a two-catch game). Dolphins are a mess on offense
Doug Baldwin Sea 5800 Price up $2000 in two weeks. A three-game monster stretch with 8 TDs
Danny Amendola NE 5700 Up $1700 in past month. Gronk back. Harder to earn 3x at advanced price
Allen Hurns Jax 5600 Cheap compared to teammate Robinson. Big play ability
Golden Tate Det 5500 Up $1000 off of four straight with 7+ receptions. Still a good price
Kamar Aiken Bal 4600 Six straight at more than 2x this price. KC tough matchup, but so was Seattle
Michael Floyd Ari 4400 Over 20 points in four of past five
Tyler Lockett Sea 4200 Up $1200 in two weeks. Can score from anywhere
Malcom Floyd SD 3500 Health risk, but up against mangled Dolphins secondary
TIGHT END
Rob Gronkowski NE 7700 Brady running out of options. Still some nice cheaper options, but due for big game
Jordan Reed Was 5900 Big $800 price jump. Sees a ton of targets. Next tier TE getting pricey
Delanie Walker Ten 5600 At least three receptions in every game. At least 2x this price in every game but two
Ben Watson NO 4800 Great surprise season. Getting pricey for his floor
Julius Thomas Jax 4700 TD in four straight
Antonio Gates SD 4600 Nice price on team void of weapons against a bad defense
Richard Rodgers GB 4300 Has a low floor and high ceiling in shaky Packers offense. Raiders bad vs. TE
Zach Miller Chi 3600 Even up $900 still a nice option with Bennett out
Will Tye NYG 3100 Double-digit points in four straight games for dirt cheap
DEFENSE
Seahawks Sea 4200 Rounding into form. Manziel turns the ball over trying to make plays
Cardinals Ari 3900 Chance for a big score
Chiefs KC 3700 Face the QB challenged Ravens
Patriots NE 3700 Figures to get turnovers with a big lead
Bengals Cin 3400 49'ers a little better at home but not much
Panthers Car 3300 If they can contain Beckham, they can get some points

MY CURRENT LINEUP

Blake Bortles QB Jax 6100
Javorius Allen RB Bal 4500
David Johnson RB Ari 5700
Allen Robinson WR Jax 7600
Julio Jones WR Atl 8500
Michael Floyd WR Ari 4400
Zach Miller TE Chi 3600
Golden Tate FL Det 5500
Patriots DST NE 3700
49600

 

 

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