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Tuesday 25th Apr 2017

Lesson learned from Week 6 – it is very hard for Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to outperform their price. Brady certainly did not disappoint in Week 6 with over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns. The problem is that half of the other quarterbacks either outscored him or had a negligible point differential, making him price-prohibitive. Meanwhile, Gronkowski was outscored by eight other tight ends and 15 tight ends caught more passes. Certainly, the other tight end options have a lower floor than Gronk, but exactly how much money is that floor worth? Gronk is currently priced $3100 higher than every other tight end except for Greg Olsen. The $3100 gets you from Theo Riddick to Mark Ingram at running back and from Jamison Crowder to T.Y. Hilton at wide receiver.

I see no legitimate scenario to not roster Antonio Gates this week. Coming off two straight strong scoring games, he now gets the Raiders. The same Raiders that have been torched by every tight end they have faced except for Owen Daniels.

Todd Gurley seems like the other painfully obvious play this week. Gurley has rushed for over 300 yards in his past two games and the Browns allow an NFL-worst 149.8 rushing yards per game.

QUARTERBACK
Andrew Luck Ind 7600 Looked good coming off the injured shoulder
Matt Ryan Atl 7200 Improved run game cutting into his numbers
Carson Palmer Ari 6700 Been on fire so far and still underpriced - only up $100 this week
Cam Newton Car 6600 Still hard to believe in the receiving options - 225 rush yards plus 3 TDs helps
Philip Rivers SD 6500 Ground game is a mess, but pass game is very efficient
Derek Carr Oak 5300 One of several interesting cheap options
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 5200 Should be high scoring to keep up with Patriots
Landry Jones Pit 5100 Interesting high-risk play against woeful KC secondary
Matt Cassel Dal 5000 Cassel is not good, but he has opportunity and a favorable matchup
RUNNING BACK
Le'Veon Bell Pit 8500 Zero receptions in Week 6 is an anomaly
Devonta Freeman Atl 7900 Blown away the field in the past four weeks - price finally catching up
Adrian Peterson Min 7600 Disappointing in Week 6, but still received the touches
Arian Foster Hou 7500 51 touches in past two games
Mark Ingram NO 6300 Spiller's return has cut into receptions.
Justin Forsett Bal 6100 24+ touches in three straight games
Latavius Murray Oak 6100 Chargers struggle mightily against the run
Chris Ivory NYJ 5800 Big price jump. Expect Jets to try to control the clock on the ground
Todd Gurley StL 5000 My favorite pick this week. 305 yards rushing in past two. Browns bad vs. run
LeGarrette Blount NE 4800 Caught in Patriots timeshare. Gets the goal-line touches
Lamar Miller Mia 4600 Refreshing new enegy in Miami
Danny Woodhead SD 4600 Chargers running game is a mess
Theo Riddick Det 3400 Leads all running backs in receptions. Does not need many to earn his price
WIDE RECEIVER
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 8600 Price finally catching up to performance, but nobody has stopped him yet
Julian Edelman NE 8200 Up another $600, putting him on the fringe. Finger injury last week
Brandon Marshall NYJ 7800 18-28 points every week still a good deal at current price
Keenan Allen SD 7700 Three monster games, one ok and two duds sets up to a GPP play
Larry Fitzgerald Ari 7400 Floor of 15 this season still ok at price
T.Y. Hilton Ind 6500 At least 13 points in all but one. Better with Luck back
Amari Cooper Oak 6500 Only four catches in back-to-back games. Good matchup with SD
John Brown Ari 5500 Three good games in a row. Big plays translate to better GPP
Eric Decker NYJ 5300 Overshadowed by Marshall. TD in all four games played
Donte Moncrief Ind 5200 Outscoring T.Y. at $1300 less
Pierre Garcon Was 5000 Almost guaranteed 2x floor
Martavis Bryant Pit 4700 Shot out of a cannon in first game
Willie Snead NO 4300 At least four receptions in all but first game. Colts-Saints should be defenseless
Stefon Diggs Min 4200 Two-week wonder 13 catches for 216 yards. Good with Johnson out
Jamison Crowder Was 3700 Redskins making concerted effort to get him the ball
TIGHT END
Greg Olsen Car 6100 Best receiver on Carolina
Antonio Gates SD 5000 Two big games and now gets the Raiders
Gary Barnidge Cle 4900 $500 price increase but keeps scoring touchdowns
Travis Kelce KC 5000 Will see more targets if Maclin is out
Jason Witten Dal 4800 Could be good dump off target for Cassel
Ben Watson NO 3300 Does not have to do much to earn his low price
Jordan Cameron Mia 3300 3x this low price in three of five games
Kyle Rudolph Min 3100 TD in Week 6 but not a lot of targets
Derek Carrier Was 2500 Very cheap with Reed out
DEFENSE
Cardinals Ari 3600 Not many good defense options for Week 7. Cards have been ball-hawks
Falcons Atl 3300 Torched by the Saints but were better before and get a weak Titans offense
Panthers Car 3100 Typically would not want defense against Eagles, but times have changed
Dolphins Mia 2700 Dolphins played at a high level with new coach
Steelers Pit 2600 Not an endorsement for Steelers - rather looking at Chiefs with no weapons

My Current Lineup

Carson Palmer QB Ari 6700
Todd Gurley RB StL 5000
Lamar Miller RB Mia 4600
DeAndre Hopkins WR Hou 8600
Donte Moncrief WR Ind 5200
Larry Fitzgerald WR Ari 7400
Antonio Gates TE SD 5000
Willie Snead FL NO 4300
Panthers DST Car 3100
$49,900

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