One of the things that is a strength of mine in fantasy baseball is the exact thing that kills me in fantasy football: Patience.
Mind you, I love playing fantasy football as much as I love playing its baseball cousin, and I seriously love football Sundays for so many reasons. They are cozy days with my family and cooking. As the weather turns, there is a fire on the fireplace, and I usually bake--biscuits or muffins--in the morning and make soups and stews and other comfort chow for our consumption the rest of the day.
In fact, though I do most of my writing and work and baseball watching either in my office or our bedroom, somehow watching Sunday football anywhere but in our living room is just out of the question (though we have a 32" tube in the bedroom, which is plenty big enough).
So, I start my Sundays up by 7:30, watching pre-game stuff and snuggling with the dogs while I am also conjuring not just what I will cook, but who to start and who to sit (as well as who I have to replace).
It is a ritual, and a really great one, but the problem is by the time I start looking at the free agent pool on Sunday morning, all the guys I want to really gamble on are gone.
A little of it is that I am not that aggressive during the weekly FAAB deadlines, but a lot of it too is knowing that, for example, Danny Woodhead is much better than a guy worth seven points this year. In fact, with Ryan Mathews hurt, I sort of assumed Woodhead would get not just some carries, but a half dozen catches against the Bills yesterday, but he got nothing while Donald Brown got the carries.
Meanwhile, probably no one in any league of mine got the benefits of Eddie Royal, but to a degree, that is exactly why I shy away from FAAB: I would rather sit on Woodhead, knowing he too will have a few weeks like Royal did yesterday, coming up.
Actually, my mate Lord Z and I have been messaging this very frustration over the past three Sundays, noting how totally ridiculous it is to project much of anything football-wise with such small samples.
Oh, sure, it is easy to suggest that Peyton Manning and Drew Brees will be among the top passers, but who even had Nick Foles on their radar last year, any more than Kirk Cousins was someone's darling this year?
So, while waiting for Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick to get into their regular season groove--for who would cut them?--I get my team clocks cleaned trying to hold off the team that had Carson Palmer, but replaced him with Cousins.
In most of my leagues, I can suddenly use running backs, as another example, for I have Ben Tate, Doug Martin and Arian Foster on a bunch of rosters. Problem is, I also have Carlos Hyde, but, as Todd and I noted just yesterday, having those guys is one thing.
As far as knowing who to start this time of year, I might as well as a chimp to hurl darts in the basement of a nice pub while I down a Guiness, watch, and dutifully write down the results.