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Sunday 26th Mar 2017

That loud “thud” sound you may have heard was the impact of the 2014 non-waiver trade deadline on single-league fantasy baseball formats. Jumping to the conclusion, once again it seems that saving one’s money to receive the final two-month benefit of big names traded into the league hardly assures a payoff.

Of course, it goes without saying that there is inherently more risk in spending earlier on less-proven commodities, but they typically cost less, too. Therefore, you can spread your bets over multiple players over time.

Then again, this year’s big trade names carried their own risks, very heavy ones. Let’s take a look at all the non-waiver deadline acquisitions over $20 by league, using AL and NL Tout Wars as our guide.

(To put the dollar values into context, each Tout Wars owner works from a $100 FAAB base for the season with adjustments downward for a poor finish the year before and upward on reclaims for injured players.)

I judge only half of the AL incoming trades being worthwhile for fantasy owners while four of seven in the NL look ok heading into the final month.

American League – three booms, three busts

Jeff Samardzija, Oak $77 - boom
Jason Hammel, Oak $51 - bust
Allen Craig, Bos $51 - bust
Chase Headley, NYY $39 - bust
Martin Prado, NYY $36 - boom
Huston Street, LAA $36 - boom

While Samardzija’s Oakland ERA is three-quarters of a run higher than in Chicago, his 3.57 mark as an Athletic would be his best in three years as a major league starter. His past and present teammate Hammel is at the other end of the spectrum. He has struggled so badly since the trade (2-5, 4.98 ERA) that he was skipped in the rotation recently, though he has since started to show some sign of life.

It was difficult to fathom that Allen Craig could actually be worse at the plate in Boston than in St. Louis, but that is what is happening. So much for a contract push by Chase Headley. Since his move to New York, the third baseman has improved over his dreadful start with San Diego, but as a Yankee, he is still below his career norms.

Headley’s new New York teammate, Martin Prado, is on his career average and hitting with increased power, a nice addition. Huston Street has been nothing short of fantastic since joining the Angels. The closer is 11-for-11 in save opportunities and has yet to allow a run. It is no coincidence that the Angels have surged since Street took over the ninth inning.

National League – four booms, three busts

Asdrubal Cabrera, Was $53 - boom
John Lackey, StL $53 - bust
Justin Masterson, StL $52 - bust
Jake Peavy, SF $42 – boom
A.J. Pierzynski, StL $39 - bust
Yangervis Solarte, SD $34 - boom
Jarred Cosart, Mia $30 - boom

Hard to believe, but Cabrera was the top offensive player to join the Senior Circuit this summer. Since the move from Cleveland, the shortstop has logged a slightly below average batting average, but greater power, with 11 of his 25 Nats hits going for extra bases for a clear first-place club.

It may be harsh to label Lackey a bust. Then again, the veteran has just two wins in seven NL starts and an ERA over 4.00. On the other hand, Lackey is eating innings and generally keeping his contending team in games. But so did the man he replaced, Joe Kelly, who is making a fraction of the amount Lackey is paid. One cannot find anything positive to say about Lackey’s new teammate Masterson, who has been so dreadful that he has been banished to the bullpen, from where he is unlikely to be seen the rest of the way except in blowouts.

An ex-Boston battery is next. On the left coast, Jake Peavy has lost four of seven starts with the Giants, but a 2.66 ERA indicates his hit-and-miss offense is primarily to blame. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski was a fill-in for Yadier Molina in St. Louis and did about what was expected. On the other hand, Molina is now back and A.J. may rarely play in September. 19 starts to date is about all $39 is likely to deliver.

Yangervis Solarte went the other way in the Headley deal and the third sacker has performed about as well in San Diego as he did in his surprising New York debut. Solarte has been superior to his more highly-compensated trade partner in their respective new venues.

We end with one of the most delightful stories of the 2014 deadline. Jarred Cosart has cut his walks in half, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA since joining the Marlins while helping to keep Miami’s faint wild card hopes alive.

 

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 16-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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