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Tuesday 23rd May 2017

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Each week, your friends at Mastersball will post the results of the weekly Tout Wars FAAB run, featuring the winning bid as well as the runner-up bids. There are four Tout Wars leagues, a 12-team AL only, 12-team NL only, 15-team Mixed Auction League and 15-team Mixed Draft League. The Mixed leagues use on-base-percentage instead of batting average. You can see the complete standings for each league by clicking on the appropriate heading, located just under each player photo.

Tout Wars uses a Vickrey system to award bids. For a complete description of the Vickrey system, click HERE for the Tout Wars constitution.

Included with each league report will be commentary from a Mastersball staff member participating in that league. We invite you to ask questions and post comments at the bottom of the report.

All contingency bids for awarded players are included. Sometimes, this is a bid tied to a player that the owner received, so at times the bid amount is larger than the winning bid. We are including it to provide as much information and context as possible with each report.

*PLEASE NOTE - We have slightly altered the presentation in an effort to help you reconstruct the actual bidding a little better. The amount the owner paid is listed in a column followed by the non-adjusted Vickrey bid. The remaining bids for that player are then listed in order of amount. if the amount of an unawarded bid is greater than what was charged, the bid was a contingency bid by that owner and they were awarded a player of higher priority.

New to the report is "Todd's Take" where Lord Zola will share his unique perspective focusing on FAAB strategy, game theory and league dynamics.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

samardzija

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

JSamardzija, Oak 77 Andy Behrens 85 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 76 Jeff Erickson 64
Jason Collette 50 Lawr Michaels 47 Steve Moyer 42
Ron Shandler 35 Larry Schechter 19 Rob Leibowitz 19
JHammel, Oak 51 Jeff Erickson 58 Andy Behrens 85 Jason Collette 50
Steve Moyer 42 Ron Shandler 35 Lawr Michaels 30
Rob Leibowitz 19 Larry Schechter 19 Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 13
BBoxberger, TB 5 Jason Collette 6 Rob Leibowitz 4 Jeff Erickson 2
Chris Liss 0 Steve Moyer 0
MKawasaki, Tor 3 Lawr Michaels 4 Larry Schechter 2
JGallo, Tex 1 Chris Liss 1
ZWheeler, NYY 1 Jason Collette 3 Jeff Erickson 10 Larry Schechter 2
Chris Liss 0 Steve Moyer 0
DSantana, Hou 1 Mike Podhorzer 21 Chris Liss 0 Steve Moyer 0
EHernandez, Hou 1 Larry Schechter 2 Steve Moyer 0 Jeff Erickson 0
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
NFreiman, Oak 1 Lawr Michaels 5 Larry Schechter 2 Steve Moyer 0
RIbanez, KC 1 Larry Schechter 2 Steve Moyer 0
AWarren, NYY 0 Chris Liss 0
RFlaherty, Bal 0 Steve Moyer 0 Larry Schechter 2 Jeff Erickson 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

CColon, KC Chris Liss 0 Steve Moyer 0
CSmith, Det Jason Collette 0
FCervelli, NYY Steve Moyer 0

Rob Leibowitz' Commentary

When it comes to league crossover trades, the bids on the best player to cross, in this case Jeff Samardzija, are generally amongst the least interesting to witness. However, this instance was slightly more interesting than usual. This type of situation usually comes down to the team with the most FAAB remaining bids $1 more than the second FAAB hoarder has. Generally the #2 FAAB budgeted team has the unwritten responsibility of  keeping the #1 team honest by A) making sure the first team uses as much FAAB as possible and 2) to protect against or take advantage of  the first team trying to be cute and keep a little left FAAB budget left over by not maxing out their bid. Moyer opted to not go all out and bid in the middle on both league cross over pitchers and the responsibility fell to the third place FAAB budget to price enforce. Behrens almost caught a big break as it’s usually the third highest budget where the deviations from simply maxing out your bid on players you are unlikely to get occur, but it wasn’t meant to be in this instance.

Typically it is the second best player crossing where the bids get more interesting and given that we are still weeks away from the deadline, not everyone went all in on Jason Hammel including the top two FAAB budgets behind Behrens despite the great season he’s having. There’s no guarantee anyone better than Hammel will even cross over.

The sneak-thru FAAB picks of the week were power prospect Joey Gallo and reliever Brian Boxberger. Gallo has already hit 30 HRs between A+ and Double-A this season. The twenty-year old is striking out over 40% of the time in Double-A, but continues to get on base high rates and could be a September call-up. Boxberger picked up a save last week and has been pitching well all season with a K/9 approaching 14.0. However, he is still back on the depth charts behind Jake McGee, so it remains to be seen if he receives more opportunities. In another organization, Boxberger could easily already be a closer

Todd's Take

So much for the notion no one of consequence will be traded across leagues.

As Rob suggested, it is usually the onus of the second place FAAB holder to bid their full boat but in this case, there is a huge caveat. We're not at the trading deadline yet. The reason for pushing the limit is the chances of a better player becoming available is rare but there's still a chance someone else comes over and now Steve has the FAAB hammer (barring a FAAB trade or reclaim). Steve's needs are more towards a power hitter than starting pitcher so he opted to wait for a player that fits as opposed to relying on making a deal.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

hendricks

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

Dstraily, ChC 15 Lenny Melnick  21 Brian Walton 14 Derek Carty 11
Phil Hertz 6 Tristan H. Cockcroft 3 Seth Trachtman 1
KHendricks, ChC 6 Tristan H. Cockcroft 9 Brian Walton 5 Seth Trachtman 1
MFranco, Phi 1 Brian Walton 2
TColvin, SF 1 Lenny Melnick  9
FMorales, Col 1 Steve Gardner 2 Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
MRojas, LAD 0 Scott Wilderman 0 Peter Kreutzer 0
DThayer, SD 0 Gene McCaffrey 0
SFreeman, StL 0 Gene McCaffrey 0
CTorres, NYM 0 Phil Hertz 0 Steve Gardner 0
JBour, Mia 0 Peter Kreutzer 0
ZDuke, Mil 0 Peter Kreutzer 0 Steve Gardner 0
JLobaton, Was 0 Derek Carty 0
KHill, Phi 0 Derek Carty 0

 UNAWARDED BIDS

NSoto, Cin Phil Hertz 1
SManess, StL Phil Hertz 0 Steve Gardner 0
CRupp, Phi Derek Carty 0
EArruebarrena, LAD Scott Wilderman 0
JBianchi, Mil Scott Wilderman 0
JDiaz, Cin Gene McCaffrey 0
JHowell, LAD Peter Kreutzer 0
JHughes, Pit Peter Kreutzer 0
JPerez, SF Peter Kreutzer 0
JWright, LAD Steve Gardner 0
KQuackenbush, SD Peter Kreutzer 0
LAvilan, Atl Gene McCaffrey 0
WWright, ChC Peter Kreutzer 0

Brian Walton's Commentary

As it turned out, I was in the midst of the action for both crooked number players this week, but only as an enforcer. Both are new players in the pool, as fresh trade-deadline blood has started to flow into the NL. While bigger deals could be coming, I am not waiting around to find out.

The blockbuster swap in which the Cubs sent 2/5 of their rotation to Oakland did not hurt NL Tout, as players traded out of the league remain eligible for the remainder of the season. On the other hand, all of the three new Cubs were dispatched to the minors after the trade, so are not going to immediately alter our standings.

Billy McKinney and Addison Russell will not likely contribute in Chicago in 2014, but Dan Straily is a proven major league starter. As such, I went $14, assuming I would be outbid. I was, but only by one Tout warrior, Lenny Melnick. Lenny offered $21 and paid $15 Vickrey.

One pitcher potentially standing in the way of Straily is Kyle Hendricks. Being pulled early from his Triple-A start on Sunday increased speculation that the 24-year-old is on the way to the Windy City. Hendricks has a 3.58 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 100 2/3 Triple-A innings this season.

The other new pitcher expected to join the Cubs rotation is Tsuyoshi Wada, already owned by Seth Trachtman. All Straily needs is for one of the two of Hendricks and Wada to stumble – or another trade!

A far less exciting interleague swap is the one in which Arizona received lefty Vidal Nuno from the Yankees for Brandon McCarthy and cash. Nuno for $2 was my second conditional bid after Straily and Hendricks. I thought I won the standings tiebreaker for the new Diamondback with Derek Carty, who also had lost out on Straily, but it was not to be.

Though the trade occurred during the day on Sunday, Tout’s stats provider, onRoto.com, only updates player status once per 24 hours, overnight. So according to league rules, Nuno will not be in the eligible NL player pool until next Sunday night. This also tripped up AL Tout bidding for McCarthy.  Timing is everything – or nothing.

Todd's Take

I'm going to take a little liberty and discuss a more general topic than these FAAB results. I'm in this league and the epiphany struck while looking at this league so I figured I'd talk about it here.

In batting average leagues (BA) it has been a common strategy not to worry about the category because it is so fickle. Tout switched to OBP for all its leagues this season and I carried that thinking into the March auction (not worrying about OBP). Shame on me.

I'll save the correlations for a more appropriate space but the bottom line is the other hitting categories correlate better with OBP than they do batting average. As such, the leaders in OBP leagues should be faring better in OBP than the leaders in BA leagues fare in BA. Granted we're only halfway through and this deserves a more complete investigation at season's end, but here is how well OBP/BA correlates to place in the standings to date in Tout Wars and LABR. The closer to 1.00, the better the correlation

 

AL NL Mix Draft Mix Auction
Tout Wars 0.66 0.70 0.46 0.56
LABR 0.64 0.51 0.20

It's too early to start suggesting in OBP leagues it is wise not to ignore OBP, but we're leaning that way.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION 

ruggiano

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

JRuggiano, ChC 14 Paul Singman 18 Ray Flowers 13 Scott Swanay 13
Tim Heaney 7 Scott Pianowski 5 Fred Zinkie 2
TKoehler, Mia 5 Scott Pianowski 9 Derek Van Riper 4 Ray Flowers 4
Tim Heaney 3 Ray Guilfoyle 1 Patrick Davitt 0
YGrandal, SD 2 Cory Schwartz 11 Al Melchior 1
RChirinos, Tex 2 Scott Pianowski 2 Al Melchior 1
EMujica, Bos 1 Ray Flowers 2
SVanSlyke, LAD 1 Scott Pianowski 5
LForsythe, TB 1 Paul Singman 5 Scott Pianowski 4 Tim Heaney 3
Fred Zinkie 0
TMatzek, Col 1 Patrick Davitt 1 Tim Heaney 3
MMoustakas, KC 1 Tim Heaney 7 Paul Singman 4
BGuyer, TB 1 David Gonos 2
DPeralta, Ari 1 Scott Swanay 12 Paul Singman 12 Fred Zinkie 0
JPetricka, CWS 1 Tim Heaney 7
JBroxton, Cin 1 Tim Heaney 4
ODespaigne, SD 1 Ray Guilfoyle 1 Tim Heaney 2
MMikolas, Tex 1 Al Melchior 2
EHernandez, Hou 1 Al Melchior 1
RHanigan, TB 0 Patrick Davitt 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

BBoxberger, TB Tim Heaney 2
UJimenez, Bal Tim Heaney 2
DStraily, ChC Tim Heaney 1
JTazawa, Bos Tim Heaney 1
CGimenez, Tex Patrick Davitt 0
DMatsuzaka, NYM Patrick Davitt 0
KKendrick, Phi Patrick Davitt 0

Zach Steinhorn's Commentary

Heading into the season, I liked Justin Ruggiano as an underrated power/speed asset, but up until a few weeks ago, things just weren’t working out for him. His production and playing time were inconsistent and he missed over a month due to a hamstring strain. But he’s been hot of late, having recorded multiple hits in six of his last eight games with two homers and nine RBI over that span. Ruggiano is playing just about every day for the time being, but that crowded Cubs outfield worries me. He did tally 18 homers and 15 steals in 424 at-bats last year, so he certainly carries some upside going forward. But $14 still seems a bit high. Then again, with FAAB, I’ve always been an advocate of spending for immediate help over saving for later.

Very quietly, Tom Koehler has registered a 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings, to go along with a 21-to-4 K/BB ratio. Being that he’s a two-start pitcher this week, Koehler is definitely worth the $5 investment. I considered bidding on him but couldn’t decide who to drop, so I reluctantly passed. The four-man reserve limit can really be a pain sometimes.

Of course, a Mixed Auction Tout Wars FAAB report would not be complete without a mention of saves, and since Jake Petricka tossed two perfect innings to pick up the save for the White Sox on Saturday, it’s no surprise that he was scooped up on Monday. At this point, who knows what Robin Ventura is thinking regarding his club’s ninth inning situation, but at the measly price of $1, Tim Heaney’s purchase is of the low risk/high reward variety.

Todd's Take

There's a lot of players and a lot of games to follow - sometimes things slip through the cracks. Something I do with these reports and look at the bids and if there is one that looks curious (Why are so many bidding on that guy?) - I'll take a look. There was a good deal of action on Logan Forsythe, more than I expected. Lo and behold Forsythe has 2 or more hits in 6 of his last 8 games including 3 homers. Will be keep it up? Of course not. But it does get him in the Tampa lineup almost every day until he slows down, and as we like to say, at-bats are currency.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

dperalta

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

DPeralta, Ari 4 Charlie Wiegert 9 Perry Van Hook 3
JRuggiano, ChC 4 Charlie Wiegert 9 Perry Van Hook 3
GJones, Mia 3 Tom Kessenich 4 Adam Ronis 2
CParmelee, Min 1 Adam Ronis 2 Eno Sarris 1
AEthier, LAD 1 Eno Sarris 1 Tom Kessenich 2 Charlie Wiegert 1
RHanigan, TB 1 Charlie Wiegert 1 Ray Murphy 0
YPino, Min 1 Scott Engel 1
CLewis, Tex 1 Anthony Perri 2
LForsythe, TB 1 Tim McLeod 3
JNelson, Mil 1 Tim McLeod 1
JBroxton, Cin 1 Perry Van Hook 3 Tim McLeod 0
MAviles, Cle 1 Perry Van Hook 2
HConger, LAA 0 Ray Murphy 0 Charlie Wiegert 1
BBoxberger, TB 0 Tim McLeod 0 Perry Van Hook 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

TMedica, SD Charlie Wiegert 7
NFeliz, Tex Perry Van Hook 3
ISuzuki, NYY Tom Kessenich 2
CGentry, Oak Tom Kessenich 2
NHundley, Bal Charlie Wiegert 1 Ray Murphy 0
WVenable, SD Charlie Wiegert 1
CJoseph, Bal Charlie Wiegert 1
ECampbell, NYM Eno Sarris 1
EStults, SD Scott Engel 1
JPanik, SF Tim McLeod 1
JUribe, LAD Adam Ronis 0
MGonzalez, Bal Scott Engel 0
EVolquez, Pit Scott Engel 0
PNeshek, StL Tim McLeod 0
TMatzek, Col Scott Engel 0
WMiley, Ari Perry Van Hook 0
DNava, Bos Adam Ronis 0
CColabello, Min Adam Ronis 0

Perry Van Hook's Commentary

In this league I was outbid for both the outfielders I wanted to replace Ender Inciarte. I bid $3 on both David Peralta and Justin Ruggiano, but Charlie Wiegert bid $9 for Peralta and $7 for Ruggiano and rostered both for $4. Unlucky there was a team that had two outfield spots to fill against me and was the league’s high bidder this week.

On the pitching side with Tommy Milone losing his roster spot in Oakland and the All Star break week coming I wanted to pick up an extra relief pitcher that might get me a few saves. I was set to have Ranger Neftali Feliz in my top spot but with Jonathan Broxton picking up the save for the Reds on Sunday because Aroldis Chapman was dealing with a hamstring issue, I moved Broxton ahead of Feliz and won him for a dollar on a $3 bid. Again with the ASB coming it is very possible that Cincinnati is ultra conservative with Chapman and Broxton gets a few saves this week. Hopefully as this was one of three leagues where I added him on Sunday.

Todd's Take

Perry explained his bids above but if I'm in this league and have a surplus in the outfield, I'm dropping the good Captain a note. He obviously wanted an outfielder so perhaps a mutual swap is on order. 

Looking at the results of a FAAB run offers some interesting insight into an owner's strategy. Are they punting ratios as evidenced by bidding on lesser pitchers? Are they focusing on ratios by bidding on top set-up men? 

There's only one way to find out for sure-- ask!

Comments   

0 #1 Perry Van Hook 2014-07-07 19:20
I am rather surprised by the bids on Forsythe in these leagues as his playing time is due for a major hit this week with Yunel Escobar coming back off the DL. Unless or until Zobrist is traded Forsythe goes back to a utility infielder with not enough at bats to be in a lineup - especially in mixed leagues.
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