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Saturday 25th Mar 2017

In the opening days of the 2014 season, the baseball world has been ablaze over the superhuman feats of Chicago Cubs infielder/outfielder Emilio Bonifacio. There is a lot to talk about.

The 28-year-old collected a modern-day record nine hits in 12 at-bats through the Cubs’ first two contests. Bonifacio followed up with two more hits in game three, becoming the first major leaguer ever with 11 hits in his first three games with a new team and just the third by any player to open a season since 1900. Bonifacio reached base just once in four plate appearances on Friday.

As is always the case, events occurring at the start of any season draw unusual levels of attention – whether for unpleasant reasons like say, B.J. Upton’s 1-for-16 start with nine strikeouts – or an extraordinary one, like Bonifacio is enjoying. Let’s face it, a few good (or bad) games in June or July might receive passing notice at best, but because it is April, the magnifying lenses are out.

Now on his sixth major league roster in his eight big league seasons after being cast aside by the Royals earlier this year, the switch-hitting Bonifacio was an afterthought at best to fantasy players in 2014. Taken late in most NL-only fantasy drafts for his speed alone, he was probably completely passed over in any respectable mixed league.

Perhaps to some, that is what contributes to his early allure. After all, Bonfacio’s career line coming into this season was a pedestrian .262/.322/.340/.662.  My simple question is this: Where do you think he will end up?

In my recollection of Bonifacio’s checkered past, this fast start song is a very familiar tune.

Having drafted Bonifacio previously, I have been sucked in by his good-looking sprints out of the blocks before. While I could rightfully be accused of a minor case of cherry-picking data in what follows, the major thought should not be lost.

Bonifacio is a fast starter, but much less so a strong finisher. The only exception might be his career year in 2011 while he was with the Marlins (.296/.360/.393/.753 with 40 stolen bases).

Look at these opening numbers from Bonifacio’s recent campaigns. They begin with 2009, the first year he began a season in the bigs (2013 is left out because it does not fit the storyline while 2010 was omitted because the Dominican native was injured and opened on the disabled list). I chose either his first four or five games of each season to illustrate his slash line high-water marks.

Bonifacio’s Fast Starts – first games of the season


Games At-bats Hits Steals BA OBP SLG OPS
2014 4 19 11 4 0.579 0.619 0.684 1.303
2012 5 19 8 4 0.421 0.500 0.421 0.921
2011 4 15 7 0 0.400 0.400 0.467 0.867
2009 5 24 14 4 0.583 0.600 0.833 1.433

The moral of the story? Do not fall for the early-April headlines. We are not talking about a Jose Fernandez discovery here. This is Emilio Bonifacio, for Pete’s sake.

After all, chances are good that by the time you could acquire him as a free agent and actually get him into your active lineup, he would cool down - and that would be that. Save your energies and FAAB for potential true difference-makers.

 

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 16-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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